curiousblue.bsky.social
@curiousblue.bsky.social
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
I know it’s wrong, but I find the communists’ “Sir, you’re going to need a license for that reincarnation” bit hilarious in a deadpan sort of way.
The Dalai Lama, on his 90th birthday, receives messages from well-wishers around the world. China'a envoy to India, meanwhile, warns the Tibetan spiritual leader that reincarnation is not his choice.
July 6, 2025 at 12:01 PM
I know it’s wrong, but I find the communists’ “Sir, you’re going to need a license for that reincarnation” bit hilarious in a deadpan sort of way.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Fantastic and fascinating piece on the past, present and future of the dollar by @robinwigglesworth.ft.com, @kateduguid.bsky.social and
@arjunneilalim.ft.com:
@arjunneilalim.ft.com:
Is the world losing faith in the almighty US dollar?
Donald Trump’s trade war is forcing investors to confront the possibility that the dominance of the US currency might fade — or even end
www.ft.com
April 18, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Fantastic and fascinating piece on the past, present and future of the dollar by @robinwigglesworth.ft.com, @kateduguid.bsky.social and
@arjunneilalim.ft.com:
@arjunneilalim.ft.com:
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Instead of trying to force Jordan to accept Gazan refugees, the United States should “heed its loyal ally’s passionate pleas and avert disaster for Palestinians, Jordan, and the region,” argues @curtisryan.bsky.social.
Jordan’s Looming Crisis
The war in Gaza has become an existential risk to the kingdom.
www.foreignaffairs.com
April 14, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Instead of trying to force Jordan to accept Gazan refugees, the United States should “heed its loyal ally’s passionate pleas and avert disaster for Palestinians, Jordan, and the region,” argues @curtisryan.bsky.social.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
"The purpose of a system is what it does" (POSIWID) is an exceptionally vacuous and non-explanatory slogan, even as vacuous and non-explanatory slogans go. [Scott Alexander]
Yes, Scott is quite right.
People underrate the importance of this kind of intellectual hygiene.
Sloppy cynicism is corrosive to sound thinking.
www.astralcodexten.com/p/come-on-ob...
People underrate the importance of this kind of intellectual hygiene.
Sloppy cynicism is corrosive to sound thinking.
www.astralcodexten.com/p/come-on-ob...
April 12, 2025 at 3:03 PM
"The purpose of a system is what it does" (POSIWID) is an exceptionally vacuous and non-explanatory slogan, even as vacuous and non-explanatory slogans go. [Scott Alexander]
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
New now: The White House says Canada/Mexico tariffs will remain UNCHANGED -- still 25% over fentanyl concerns, with exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods.
Note this is contrary to what the Treasury sec said initially, and what a WH official told me earlier. Details getting hammered out in real time.
Note this is contrary to what the Treasury sec said initially, and what a WH official told me earlier. Details getting hammered out in real time.
April 9, 2025 at 8:08 PM
New now: The White House says Canada/Mexico tariffs will remain UNCHANGED -- still 25% over fentanyl concerns, with exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods.
Note this is contrary to what the Treasury sec said initially, and what a WH official told me earlier. Details getting hammered out in real time.
Note this is contrary to what the Treasury sec said initially, and what a WH official told me earlier. Details getting hammered out in real time.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
We are going to see this more and more.
Countries will offer the US zero tariffs — exactly what they have pushed for in every trade deal of the past two decades — and the Washington bubble will proclaim it evidence that Trump’s strategy works.
Countries will offer the US zero tariffs — exactly what they have pushed for in every trade deal of the past two decades — and the Washington bubble will proclaim it evidence that Trump’s strategy works.
EU offers zero for zero tariffs on industrial products.
I'm pretty sure you would see US steelworkers, autoworkers, and textile workers bolt from the temporary Trump coalition if that happened.
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
I'm pretty sure you would see US steelworkers, autoworkers, and textile workers bolt from the temporary Trump coalition if that happened.
subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...
POLITICO Pro: EU offers Trump removal of all industrial tariffs
subscriber.politicopro.com
April 7, 2025 at 9:39 PM
We are going to see this more and more.
Countries will offer the US zero tariffs — exactly what they have pushed for in every trade deal of the past two decades — and the Washington bubble will proclaim it evidence that Trump’s strategy works.
Countries will offer the US zero tariffs — exactly what they have pushed for in every trade deal of the past two decades — and the Washington bubble will proclaim it evidence that Trump’s strategy works.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Maybe the Pivot to Asia is the friends we made along the way.
Pentagon announces a substantial military buildup in the Middle East, particularly the looming arrival of a second aircraft carrier, as the president threatens Iran with massive bombing. (And continues to bomb Yemen)
April 1, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Maybe the Pivot to Asia is the friends we made along the way.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
I regret to inform you that SCIFs are woke now.
Wow. "The reason I knew this is that Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, had texted me the war plan at 11:44 a.m. The plan included precise information about weapons packages, targets, and timing." www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
March 24, 2025 at 4:38 PM
I regret to inform you that SCIFs are woke now.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Hate to say I told you so, but...
Friendly reminder that Opsec is so terrible around the Trump team that the details of any discussions between him and Moscow will probably already be in the hands of intelligence agencies in Kyiv, Paris, Rome, Warsaw and Beijing
March 24, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Hate to say I told you so, but...
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Not a great look from Meloni to blame the EU for the trade conflict with the US and criticize European plans to ramp up investment in the military. Trump has made clear he wants to pare back US involvement in Europe. So it’s not “naive” or “crazy” for Europe to think about Plan B
on.ft.com/4bEsbOv
on.ft.com/4bEsbOv
Giorgia Meloni warns EU against ‘vicious circle’ of tariff war with Donald Trump
Italian premier criticises Brussels for engaging in tit-for-tat with US
on.ft.com
March 19, 2025 at 6:03 AM
Not a great look from Meloni to blame the EU for the trade conflict with the US and criticize European plans to ramp up investment in the military. Trump has made clear he wants to pare back US involvement in Europe. So it’s not “naive” or “crazy” for Europe to think about Plan B
on.ft.com/4bEsbOv
on.ft.com/4bEsbOv
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Great argument by Marc Bloch vs the type of historical argument so focused on “right” or “wrong” decision - in the historian’s view and with benefit of hindsight - over an attempt to understand why historical actors did what they did
March 14, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Great argument by Marc Bloch vs the type of historical argument so focused on “right” or “wrong” decision - in the historian’s view and with benefit of hindsight - over an attempt to understand why historical actors did what they did
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Europe has to pay more for its own defence.
One debate is whether they should "Buy European" weapons or buy them from America or other allies.
One really BAD statistic is polluting the debate: that the EU buys 80% of its weapons from overseas. Ursula von der Leyen repeated it today. It's wrong. 🧵
One debate is whether they should "Buy European" weapons or buy them from America or other allies.
One really BAD statistic is polluting the debate: that the EU buys 80% of its weapons from overseas. Ursula von der Leyen repeated it today. It's wrong. 🧵
March 9, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Europe has to pay more for its own defence.
One debate is whether they should "Buy European" weapons or buy them from America or other allies.
One really BAD statistic is polluting the debate: that the EU buys 80% of its weapons from overseas. Ursula von der Leyen repeated it today. It's wrong. 🧵
One debate is whether they should "Buy European" weapons or buy them from America or other allies.
One really BAD statistic is polluting the debate: that the EU buys 80% of its weapons from overseas. Ursula von der Leyen repeated it today. It's wrong. 🧵
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Because a bad outcome in Ukraine is existential for European security. If Putin wasn't constrained by Biden, why will he stop now he is being enabled by Trump? Especially as officials see Trump's approach in Ukraine as the 1st step in a more disorderly withdrawal from the continent 7/
March 7, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Because a bad outcome in Ukraine is existential for European security. If Putin wasn't constrained by Biden, why will he stop now he is being enabled by Trump? Especially as officials see Trump's approach in Ukraine as the 1st step in a more disorderly withdrawal from the continent 7/
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Ukraine is implementing the “open modular systems” approach that the Pentagon has long championed but never delivered. “companies are focusing on developing separate autonomous functions while ensuring their compatibility across multiple platforms and unmanned systems.” www.csis.org/analysis/ukr...
March 7, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Ukraine is implementing the “open modular systems” approach that the Pentagon has long championed but never delivered. “companies are focusing on developing separate autonomous functions while ensuring their compatibility across multiple platforms and unmanned systems.” www.csis.org/analysis/ukr...
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
I wrote a piece a few weeks ago on the surprising strengths of the German economy, some sectors shrink and others grow etc.
I wasn't quite aware of how direct the transfer of people and assets between, say, car making and defence was. www.economist.com/business/202...
I wasn't quite aware of how direct the transfer of people and assets between, say, car making and defence was. www.economist.com/business/202...
As Germany’s defence stocks go ballistic, armsmakers are tooling up
They are snapping up staff and sites from ailing firms
www.economist.com
March 6, 2025 at 5:51 PM
I wrote a piece a few weeks ago on the surprising strengths of the German economy, some sectors shrink and others grow etc.
I wasn't quite aware of how direct the transfer of people and assets between, say, car making and defence was. www.economist.com/business/202...
I wasn't quite aware of how direct the transfer of people and assets between, say, car making and defence was. www.economist.com/business/202...
I think Trump's core priority is being portrayed the winner, which makes him really susceptible to "low intensity" conflict with minimal risk to the US, but incredibly averse to any kind of major conflict where there is even a small chance of defeat.
trump was literally president for four years during which he wildly escalated drone warfare, tried to provoke a war with Iran and got into dangerous saber-rattling with north korea. now, he is threatening to take greenland and the panama canal by force. what is this horseshit?
2/2 from @ianleslie.bsky.social
March 4, 2025 at 7:05 PM
I think Trump's core priority is being portrayed the winner, which makes him really susceptible to "low intensity" conflict with minimal risk to the US, but incredibly averse to any kind of major conflict where there is even a small chance of defeat.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
🇫🇷🇷🇺‼️ Even Vladimir Putin’s friends in western Europe are angry with Donald Trump for suspending US aid to Ukraine, it would appear. The French far right leader, Marine Le Pen, accuses Trump of “cruelty” to patriotic Ukrainian soldiers in Le Figaro today 1/3
March 4, 2025 at 3:09 PM
🇫🇷🇷🇺‼️ Even Vladimir Putin’s friends in western Europe are angry with Donald Trump for suspending US aid to Ukraine, it would appear. The French far right leader, Marine Le Pen, accuses Trump of “cruelty” to patriotic Ukrainian soldiers in Le Figaro today 1/3
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
People are apparently discovering @ryanevans.bsky.social through this single post today and questioning his commitment to Ukraine as well as his qualifications.
One can disagree about his point (I'm ambivalent).
But the dogpile is ridiculous.
🧵
One can disagree about his point (I'm ambivalent).
But the dogpile is ridiculous.
🧵
February 28, 2025 at 10:59 PM
People are apparently discovering @ryanevans.bsky.social through this single post today and questioning his commitment to Ukraine as well as his qualifications.
One can disagree about his point (I'm ambivalent).
But the dogpile is ridiculous.
🧵
One can disagree about his point (I'm ambivalent).
But the dogpile is ridiculous.
🧵
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
It won’t need to be a conquest or usurpation.
Our territory and waters will still be de jure Canadian.
But de facto they’ll be used and controlled
by the two largest Arctic powers.
Our territory and waters will still be de jure Canadian.
But de facto they’ll be used and controlled
by the two largest Arctic powers.
February 19, 2025 at 10:55 AM
It won’t need to be a conquest or usurpation.
Our territory and waters will still be de jure Canadian.
But de facto they’ll be used and controlled
by the two largest Arctic powers.
Our territory and waters will still be de jure Canadian.
But de facto they’ll be used and controlled
by the two largest Arctic powers.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Given the happenings, Canada may soon regret ignoring decades of warnings about its sovereignty in the Arctic.
If the US and Russia decide that they now determine what happens in the region, and who gets to exploit it, we won’t be able to do anything about it.
If the US and Russia decide that they now determine what happens in the region, and who gets to exploit it, we won’t be able to do anything about it.
February 19, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Given the happenings, Canada may soon regret ignoring decades of warnings about its sovereignty in the Arctic.
If the US and Russia decide that they now determine what happens in the region, and who gets to exploit it, we won’t be able to do anything about it.
If the US and Russia decide that they now determine what happens in the region, and who gets to exploit it, we won’t be able to do anything about it.
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Le Monde published an article titled "Without the US, Ukraine Would Barely Last Six Months Against Russia." My readers know that I have been accurate in most of my frontline assessments, to the point that some call me a pessimist, so it's hard to accuse me of painting a rosy picture for Ukraine
February 20, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Le Monde published an article titled "Without the US, Ukraine Would Barely Last Six Months Against Russia." My readers know that I have been accurate in most of my frontline assessments, to the point that some call me a pessimist, so it's hard to accuse me of painting a rosy picture for Ukraine
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
DOGE officials conduct audit of next government institution
February 17, 2025 at 10:10 PM
DOGE officials conduct audit of next government institution
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Europe should view Trump’s wrecking ball approach to Nato and negotiations with Russia on the Ukraine war as “an opportunity”, not just a threat, President Emmanuel Macron will tell a hastily convened informal summit of European leaders at the Elysée Palace today. 1/
February 17, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Europe should view Trump’s wrecking ball approach to Nato and negotiations with Russia on the Ukraine war as “an opportunity”, not just a threat, President Emmanuel Macron will tell a hastily convened informal summit of European leaders at the Elysée Palace today. 1/
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
Bottom line, while I’m skeptical that European nations can deploy and sustain a large force in country, I also don’t think they have to. The initial requirements are not insurmountable and should not be exaggerated as an alibi for doing nothing. 7/
February 17, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Bottom line, while I’m skeptical that European nations can deploy and sustain a large force in country, I also don’t think they have to. The initial requirements are not insurmountable and should not be exaggerated as an alibi for doing nothing. 7/
Reposted by curiousblue.bsky.social
After Northeast Europe's big told-you-so moment of 2022, now it could be France's time.
And once we're done with all that, maybe we can just start building an integrated European defence, like we should have done in 1954?
And once we're done with all that, maybe we can just start building an integrated European defence, like we should have done in 1954?
For years Macron warned the Baltics and Poles and Nordics that the US would no longer be reliable. Yet we all mocked Macron and derided the Europeanisation of defense as a dangerous abandonment of Atlanticism and @natohq.bsky.social and a ploy to fund French defense companies. Yet here we are.
Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good.
This is what we now know, and what we have to do about it:🧵1/17
This is what we now know, and what we have to do about it:🧵1/17
February 16, 2025 at 4:44 AM
After Northeast Europe's big told-you-so moment of 2022, now it could be France's time.
And once we're done with all that, maybe we can just start building an integrated European defence, like we should have done in 1954?
And once we're done with all that, maybe we can just start building an integrated European defence, like we should have done in 1954?