Stefan Schubert
@stefanschubert.bsky.social
I run The Update newsletter: www.update.news
Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Book: academic.oup.com/book/56384
Pinned
Our book on the psychology of effective altruism is now out.
The digital version is available for free: academic.oup.com/book/56384?l...
There's also an audiobook.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
And you can save 30% on a physical copy if you use the code AUFLY30. global.oup.com/academic
The digital version is available for free: academic.oup.com/book/56384?l...
There's also an audiobook.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
And you can save 30% on a physical copy if you use the code AUFLY30. global.oup.com/academic
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Jon Stewart’s ignorant dismissal of economics is telling – it has low status in many circles.
It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency.
I think the philosophy of economics is underrated.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency.
I think the philosophy of economics is underrated.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
February 10, 2026 at 2:33 PM
Jon Stewart’s ignorant dismissal of economics is telling – it has low status in many circles.
It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency.
I think the philosophy of economics is underrated.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency.
I think the philosophy of economics is underrated.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
Why it’s good news that more people are dying of cancer: they live long enough not to die from other causes.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
February 10, 2026 at 7:55 PM
Why it’s good news that more people are dying of cancer: they live long enough not to die from other causes.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
China had almost 30 million births in the 1960s, but they have since fallen to less than 8 million.
Since US and Indian births haven't fallen as much, this will have geopolitical consequences later this century.
www.update.news/i/187511992/...
Since US and Indian births haven't fallen as much, this will have geopolitical consequences later this century.
www.update.news/i/187511992/...
February 10, 2026 at 4:39 PM
China had almost 30 million births in the 1960s, but they have since fallen to less than 8 million.
Since US and Indian births haven't fallen as much, this will have geopolitical consequences later this century.
www.update.news/i/187511992/...
Since US and Indian births haven't fallen as much, this will have geopolitical consequences later this century.
www.update.news/i/187511992/...
Jon Stewart’s ignorant dismissal of economics is telling – it has low status in many circles.
It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency.
I think the philosophy of economics is underrated.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency.
I think the philosophy of economics is underrated.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
February 10, 2026 at 2:33 PM
Jon Stewart’s ignorant dismissal of economics is telling – it has low status in many circles.
It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency.
I think the philosophy of economics is underrated.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
It's a shame, because I think economics can help correct a common flaw in our worldview: neglect of human agency.
I think the philosophy of economics is underrated.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
Europeans have soured on the US after the Greenland crisis, and while I expect favourability ratings to improve if a Democrat wins in 2028, long-term trust may be harder to rebuild.
www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...
www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...
February 9, 2026 at 5:46 PM
Europeans have soured on the US after the Greenland crisis, and while I expect favourability ratings to improve if a Democrat wins in 2028, long-term trust may be harder to rebuild.
www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...
www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...
What do AI benchmarks actually tell us?
Many of them give precise answers, but not to the most relevant questions.
AI matches experts on OpenAI's GDPVal, but not on real jobs.
We need studies that are more relevant to the real world.
From today's newsletter:
www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...
Many of them give precise answers, but not to the most relevant questions.
AI matches experts on OpenAI's GDPVal, but not on real jobs.
We need studies that are more relevant to the real world.
From today's newsletter:
www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...
It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong about the future of AI
Plus: Europeans are souring on the US, rising social spending, and more
www.update.news
February 9, 2026 at 2:51 PM
What do AI benchmarks actually tell us?
Many of them give precise answers, but not to the most relevant questions.
AI matches experts on OpenAI's GDPVal, but not on real jobs.
We need studies that are more relevant to the real world.
From today's newsletter:
www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...
Many of them give precise answers, but not to the most relevant questions.
AI matches experts on OpenAI's GDPVal, but not on real jobs.
We need studies that are more relevant to the real world.
From today's newsletter:
www.update.news/p/it-is-bett...
This idea is common but I don't think it's true.
People can understand this type of growth (maybe not the mathematical formalisation, but the underlying concept).
But they often have a prior that something will stop it.
That may be right or wrong, but it's not inability to understand.
People can understand this type of growth (maybe not the mathematical formalisation, but the underlying concept).
But they often have a prior that something will stop it.
That may be right or wrong, but it's not inability to understand.
February 5, 2026 at 11:19 PM
This idea is common but I don't think it's true.
People can understand this type of growth (maybe not the mathematical formalisation, but the underlying concept).
But they often have a prior that something will stop it.
That may be right or wrong, but it's not inability to understand.
People can understand this type of growth (maybe not the mathematical formalisation, but the underlying concept).
But they often have a prior that something will stop it.
That may be right or wrong, but it's not inability to understand.
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
I reviewed an earlier version of this paper. I think it's interesting, because you can tell by reading it that evolutionary psychology still lacks a loyal opposition and a healthy error culture.
It's a defensive paper, targeted at people who believe evolution stops at the neck, YouTubers, _others_
It's a defensive paper, targeted at people who believe evolution stops at the neck, YouTubers, _others_
Out now and open access for four weeks as the editor's choice Topic in Focus in American Psychologist.
Contrary to popular belief, evolutionary psychology hypotheses are testable and falsifiable.
psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...
Contrary to popular belief, evolutionary psychology hypotheses are testable and falsifiable.
psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...
February 3, 2026 at 3:40 PM
I reviewed an earlier version of this paper. I think it's interesting, because you can tell by reading it that evolutionary psychology still lacks a loyal opposition and a healthy error culture.
It's a defensive paper, targeted at people who believe evolution stops at the neck, YouTubers, _others_
It's a defensive paper, targeted at people who believe evolution stops at the neck, YouTubers, _others_
Even if individuals may need to accept death, we shouldn't accept it as a civilisation.
www.update.news/p/american-e...
www.update.news/p/american-e...
February 3, 2026 at 5:09 PM
Even if individuals may need to accept death, we shouldn't accept it as a civilisation.
www.update.news/p/american-e...
www.update.news/p/american-e...
American EV sales almost halve after the scrapping of the tax credits.
Meanwhile, Chinese sales continue to surge, opening up a huge gap between the US and China (and some European countries).
Extrapolate this a few years and the car fleets will look very different
www.update.news/p/american-e...
Meanwhile, Chinese sales continue to surge, opening up a huge gap between the US and China (and some European countries).
Extrapolate this a few years and the car fleets will look very different
www.update.news/p/american-e...
February 3, 2026 at 2:36 PM
American EV sales almost halve after the scrapping of the tax credits.
Meanwhile, Chinese sales continue to surge, opening up a huge gap between the US and China (and some European countries).
Extrapolate this a few years and the car fleets will look very different
www.update.news/p/american-e...
Meanwhile, Chinese sales continue to surge, opening up a huge gap between the US and China (and some European countries).
Extrapolate this a few years and the car fleets will look very different
www.update.news/p/american-e...
Today's newsletter has an adjusted format.
Lower-paying and harder jobs have faced a greater risk of automation for centuries.
Often with schadenfreude, some say AI is ending it.
But if so, we don't see it yet.
Also in today's newsletter:
1/5
www.update.news/p/the-centur...
Lower-paying and harder jobs have faced a greater risk of automation for centuries.
Often with schadenfreude, some say AI is ending it.
But if so, we don't see it yet.
Also in today's newsletter:
1/5
www.update.news/p/the-centur...
February 2, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Today's newsletter has an adjusted format.
Lower-paying and harder jobs have faced a greater risk of automation for centuries.
Often with schadenfreude, some say AI is ending it.
But if so, we don't see it yet.
Also in today's newsletter:
1/5
www.update.news/p/the-centur...
Lower-paying and harder jobs have faced a greater risk of automation for centuries.
Often with schadenfreude, some say AI is ending it.
But if so, we don't see it yet.
Also in today's newsletter:
1/5
www.update.news/p/the-centur...
The AI agents at Moltbook aren't really talking to each other that much - 93.5% of their comments get no replies
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lvqma...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lvqma...
February 1, 2026 at 12:17 PM
The AI agents at Moltbook aren't really talking to each other that much - 93.5% of their comments get no replies
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lvqma...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lvqma...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
January 30, 2026 at 1:17 PM
In the latest data, 44% of Harvard professors who retired were 75 or older
www.harvardmagazine.com/2024/01/jhj-...
www.harvardmagazine.com/2024/01/jhj-...
January 30, 2026 at 10:37 PM
In the latest data, 44% of Harvard professors who retired were 75 or older
www.harvardmagazine.com/2024/01/jhj-...
www.harvardmagazine.com/2024/01/jhj-...
January 30, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Eurozone unemployment has never been lower
January 30, 2026 at 1:03 PM
Eurozone unemployment has never been lower
In today's newsletter:
According to the Doomsday Clock, we've been dancing on the edge of doom since 1947. That doesn't make sense.
If there isn't any disaster year after year, you have to infer the risk was lower than you thought.
1/5
www.update.news/p/the-doomsd...
According to the Doomsday Clock, we've been dancing on the edge of doom since 1947. That doesn't make sense.
If there isn't any disaster year after year, you have to infer the risk was lower than you thought.
1/5
www.update.news/p/the-doomsd...
The Doomsday Clock is broken
Plus: the Democrats need to win more swing states from 2032, the urban transformation in the nineteenth century, and more
www.update.news
January 29, 2026 at 2:27 PM
In today's newsletter:
According to the Doomsday Clock, we've been dancing on the edge of doom since 1947. That doesn't make sense.
If there isn't any disaster year after year, you have to infer the risk was lower than you thought.
1/5
www.update.news/p/the-doomsd...
According to the Doomsday Clock, we've been dancing on the edge of doom since 1947. That doesn't make sense.
If there isn't any disaster year after year, you have to infer the risk was lower than you thought.
1/5
www.update.news/p/the-doomsd...
There's a lot of gloom, but I’m encouraged by the fact that American voters reject Trump's most aggressive policies, like ICE's tactics and his efforts to acquire Greenland
Trump is erratic, but over the long run, policy is hugely influenced by the median voter.
->
www.update.news/p/american-v...
Trump is erratic, but over the long run, policy is hugely influenced by the median voter.
->
www.update.news/p/american-v...
American voters reject Trump’s most aggressive policies
Plus: long waits under rent control, falling Chinese lending to Africa, and more
www.update.news
January 27, 2026 at 2:57 PM
There's a lot of gloom, but I’m encouraged by the fact that American voters reject Trump's most aggressive policies, like ICE's tactics and his efforts to acquire Greenland
Trump is erratic, but over the long run, policy is hugely influenced by the median voter.
->
www.update.news/p/american-v...
Trump is erratic, but over the long run, policy is hugely influenced by the median voter.
->
www.update.news/p/american-v...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future.
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
Alarmist pension projections ignore later retirements
Plus: the obstacles to AI shopping agents, why we overestimate misinformation, and more
www.update.news
January 26, 2026 at 2:49 PM
In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future.
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Enjoyed this. Good point that is always missing from debate
In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future.
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
Alarmist pension projections ignore later retirements
Plus: the obstacles to AI shopping agents, why we overestimate misinformation, and more
www.update.news
January 26, 2026 at 2:53 PM
Enjoyed this. Good point that is always missing from debate
In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future.
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
Alarmist pension projections ignore later retirements
Plus: the obstacles to AI shopping agents, why we overestimate misinformation, and more
www.update.news
January 26, 2026 at 2:49 PM
In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future.
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.
In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.
www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
Over 10% of a game of Premier League football is waiting for someone to take a throw in
theanalyst.com/articles/pre...
theanalyst.com/articles/pre...
January 24, 2026 at 3:45 PM
Over 10% of a game of Premier League football is waiting for someone to take a throw in
theanalyst.com/articles/pre...
theanalyst.com/articles/pre...
Reposted by Stefan Schubert
In my newsletter: how postponed births soften the fertility fall.
US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.
But... ->
www.update.news/p/how-postpo...
US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.
But... ->
www.update.news/p/how-postpo...
How postponed births soften the fertility fall
Plus: the economic recovery after Covid, big business growing its market share, and more
www.update.news
January 22, 2026 at 2:25 PM
In my newsletter: how postponed births soften the fertility fall.
US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.
But... ->
www.update.news/p/how-postpo...
US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.
But... ->
www.update.news/p/how-postpo...
In my newsletter: how postponed births soften the fertility fall.
US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.
But... ->
www.update.news/p/how-postpo...
US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.
But... ->
www.update.news/p/how-postpo...
How postponed births soften the fertility fall
Plus: the economic recovery after Covid, big business growing its market share, and more
www.update.news
January 22, 2026 at 2:25 PM
In my newsletter: how postponed births soften the fertility fall.
US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.
But... ->
www.update.news/p/how-postpo...
US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.
But... ->
www.update.news/p/how-postpo...