Conrad
@conradaml.bsky.social
PhDing @ University of Reading: 'DIVIDED: Inequality and Polarization Prevention' | New Zealand stuff for @oceaniaelects.bsky.social
Pinned
Conrad
@conradaml.bsky.social
· Sep 26
Is Alberta's party system changing? Not yet.
A shock new poll from Cardinal Research suggests big change could be underway in Alberta, but there's reason to be sceptical
conradaml.substack.com
I wrote about a recent poll in Alberta that had some very eye-catching numbers — it's a key case of needing to be cautious to not draw too many conclusions from a single poll, even when it shows something dramatic
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
Reposted by Conrad
"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Public Opinion Analytics Lab
The website of the Public Opinion Analytics Lab
www.poal.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 8:47 AM
"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Candidate quality does still matter, even if it's maybe a reduced effect than it used to be.
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
November 5, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Candidate quality does still matter, even if it's maybe a reduced effect than it used to be.
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Reposted by Conrad
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
November 5, 2025 at 3:11 AM
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
Incumbent Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey at the moment is ahead but the city uses RCV and at the moment he's sill some distance from 50%. If the anti-Frey vote stays together it could go to Fateh and elect him, but the three main opposing candidates have disparate views — Fateh is much to their left
November 5, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Incumbent Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey at the moment is ahead but the city uses RCV and at the moment he's sill some distance from 50%. If the anti-Frey vote stays together it could go to Fateh and elect him, but the three main opposing candidates have disparate views — Fateh is much to their left
At the moment Mamdani is hitting the 50% mark, while Sliwa massively underperforms the polls — Cuomo probably did a good job of winning over lots of his voters as the tactical option, but Mamdani is doing notably better than his polling too.
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 AM
At the moment Mamdani is hitting the 50% mark, while Sliwa massively underperforms the polls — Cuomo probably did a good job of winning over lots of his voters as the tactical option, but Mamdani is doing notably better than his polling too.
Maine at the moment is looking like it easily rejecting new voting restrictions — good to see
November 5, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Maine at the moment is looking like it easily rejecting new voting restrictions — good to see
Quite a lot of ticket splitting in Loudon County, Jones' margin is 11 points worse — though the gap is a little lower in other counties that are nearly fully counted.
November 5, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Quite a lot of ticket splitting in Loudon County, Jones' margin is 11 points worse — though the gap is a little lower in other counties that are nearly fully counted.
Reposted by Conrad
NEW from me:
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
October 31, 2025 at 2:32 PM
NEW from me:
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Reposted by Conrad
With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.
October 30, 2025 at 7:01 AM
With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.
D66 last minute surge has them coming out on top in the exit poll (though within margin of error between them and PVV and VVD), and clearly some of this coming at the expense of GL/PvdA who underperform the polls and are not in contention for largest party. Also showing some resilience for VVD.
October 29, 2025 at 8:05 PM
D66 last minute surge has them coming out on top in the exit poll (though within margin of error between them and PVV and VVD), and clearly some of this coming at the expense of GL/PvdA who underperform the polls and are not in contention for largest party. Also showing some resilience for VVD.
Reposted by Conrad
To go from "Who is Katie Lam?" to "Everybody hates Katie Lam, the Tory Idi Amin" in less than a week is exemplary "rising star" behaviour
October 24, 2025 at 4:35 PM
To go from "Who is Katie Lam?" to "Everybody hates Katie Lam, the Tory Idi Amin" in less than a week is exemplary "rising star" behaviour
Reposted by Conrad
The Plaid vote will include Plaid loyalists + much of the half of Labour voters unhappy with the government *and* a big chunk of the half of the Labour vote that is OK with the government but wanted to stop Reform representing their town. It is a winning coalition for different motives
October 24, 2025 at 10:49 AM
The Plaid vote will include Plaid loyalists + much of the half of Labour voters unhappy with the government *and* a big chunk of the half of the Labour vote that is OK with the government but wanted to stop Reform representing their town. It is a winning coalition for different motives
Based on reporting we can maybe interpret this as high turnout driven by tactical anti-Reform voting. I think the question is though whether this holds if it had been viewed as Labour v Reform. Both Reform and Plaid benefit from challenger status here.
October 24, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Based on reporting we can maybe interpret this as high turnout driven by tactical anti-Reform voting. I think the question is though whether this holds if it had been viewed as Labour v Reform. Both Reform and Plaid benefit from challenger status here.
Don't remember a time where severe delays have persisted on the Northern line for multiple days, crazy stuff. Can't imagine TfL staff have been having a fun week.
October 23, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Don't remember a time where severe delays have persisted on the Northern line for multiple days, crazy stuff. Can't imagine TfL staff have been having a fun week.
Reposted by Conrad
📊 Publication aujourd'hui de la 13ème vague de l'enquête "Fractures Françaises", réalisée par
@ipsosfrance.bsky.social pour @lemonde.fr, @cevipof.bsky.social, @institutmontaigne.bsky.social et @fondationjjaures.bsky.social 👇 www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/fractu...
@ipsosfrance.bsky.social pour @lemonde.fr, @cevipof.bsky.social, @institutmontaigne.bsky.social et @fondationjjaures.bsky.social 👇 www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/fractu...
Fractures françaises 2025
En 2025, les Français affichent un niveau de pessimisme inédit face à la situation politique et sociale du pays. Pouvoir d’achat, déclassement social, déclin national, mais aussi défiance généralisée ...
www.ipsos.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:04 AM
📊 Publication aujourd'hui de la 13ème vague de l'enquête "Fractures Françaises", réalisée par
@ipsosfrance.bsky.social pour @lemonde.fr, @cevipof.bsky.social, @institutmontaigne.bsky.social et @fondationjjaures.bsky.social 👇 www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/fractu...
@ipsosfrance.bsky.social pour @lemonde.fr, @cevipof.bsky.social, @institutmontaigne.bsky.social et @fondationjjaures.bsky.social 👇 www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/fractu...
Reposted by Conrad
New Zealand: 37 territorial authorities and 5 regional councils held referendums on whether to keep or remove their Māori ward for future local elections.
24 councils voted to remove their Māori ward, while 18 councils voted to keep their Māori ward.
➤ oceaniaelects.com/new-zealand
24 councils voted to remove their Māori ward, while 18 councils voted to keep their Māori ward.
➤ oceaniaelects.com/new-zealand
October 18, 2025 at 3:26 PM
New Zealand: 37 territorial authorities and 5 regional councils held referendums on whether to keep or remove their Māori ward for future local elections.
24 councils voted to remove their Māori ward, while 18 councils voted to keep their Māori ward.
➤ oceaniaelects.com/new-zealand
24 councils voted to remove their Māori ward, while 18 councils voted to keep their Māori ward.
➤ oceaniaelects.com/new-zealand
Reposted by Conrad
If the Supreme Court strikes down Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which has been interpreted to require the creation of majority-minority districts, Republicans could eliminate upward of a dozen Democratic-held districts across the South. Here's how.
The Supreme Court Case That Could Hand the House to Republicans
Democrats would be in danger of losing around a dozen majority-minority districts across the South if the court struck down part of the Voting Rights Act.
nyti.ms
October 15, 2025 at 4:55 PM
If the Supreme Court strikes down Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which has been interpreted to require the creation of majority-minority districts, Republicans could eliminate upward of a dozen Democratic-held districts across the South. Here's how.
Reposted by Conrad
ESRC-funded PhD @lsegovernment.bsky.social × Campaign Lab: New Ways to Think Political Persuasion (start Sep 2026, 3.5 yrs)
Methods-heavy (experiments/computation)
Topics: multi-stage persuasion, interpersonal mechanisms, AI–voter interactions
📅Apply by 10 Dec 2025: www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
Methods-heavy (experiments/computation)
Topics: multi-stage persuasion, interpersonal mechanisms, AI–voter interactions
📅Apply by 10 Dec 2025: www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
LSE Collaborative Studentship with Campaign Lab
LSE Collaborative Studentship with Campaign Lab
www.lse.ac.uk
October 8, 2025 at 8:49 AM
ESRC-funded PhD @lsegovernment.bsky.social × Campaign Lab: New Ways to Think Political Persuasion (start Sep 2026, 3.5 yrs)
Methods-heavy (experiments/computation)
Topics: multi-stage persuasion, interpersonal mechanisms, AI–voter interactions
📅Apply by 10 Dec 2025: www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
Methods-heavy (experiments/computation)
Topics: multi-stage persuasion, interpersonal mechanisms, AI–voter interactions
📅Apply by 10 Dec 2025: www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
This is not borne out in the data used in the article — 44% say Farage isn't racist... which means that Starmer has told the median voter they are racist and there'll be a backlash as result??? Insane jump
October 1, 2025 at 7:48 PM
This is not borne out in the data used in the article — 44% say Farage isn't racist... which means that Starmer has told the median voter they are racist and there'll be a backlash as result??? Insane jump
I know it's only a doorstep interview but given it's one of the biggest issues of the past couple of years and one Luke Akehurst has been very vocal about, it's absolutely bizarre how he just has nothing to back up his point of view on this and how techy he is
October 1, 2025 at 5:56 PM
I know it's only a doorstep interview but given it's one of the biggest issues of the past couple of years and one Luke Akehurst has been very vocal about, it's absolutely bizarre how he just has nothing to back up his point of view on this and how techy he is
🇲🇩PAS could be on the verge of a majority once the remaining votes are counted, which are very fabourable for PAS
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
September 28, 2025 at 9:27 PM
🇲🇩PAS could be on the verge of a majority once the remaining votes are counted, which are very fabourable for PAS
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
I wrote about a recent poll in Alberta that had some very eye-catching numbers — it's a key case of needing to be cautious to not draw too many conclusions from a single poll, even when it shows something dramatic
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
Is Alberta's party system changing? Not yet.
A shock new poll from Cardinal Research suggests big change could be underway in Alberta, but there's reason to be sceptical
conradaml.substack.com
September 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
I wrote about a recent poll in Alberta that had some very eye-catching numbers — it's a key case of needing to be cautious to not draw too many conclusions from a single poll, even when it shows something dramatic
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
I generally lean towards sorting digital ID, though I get some of the criticisms. One I don't get is people saying that a potential future Reform govt could use it maliciously — it's true but they'd be a far-right authoritarian government anyway, they could introduce their own ID scheme anyway
September 26, 2025 at 8:09 AM
I generally lean towards sorting digital ID, though I get some of the criticisms. One I don't get is people saying that a potential future Reform govt could use it maliciously — it's true but they'd be a far-right authoritarian government anyway, they could introduce their own ID scheme anyway
A five point increase is a weird middle ground where you can reasonably confidently say if you swapped out Starmer for Burnham right now Labour would get a bump in the polls — but it's not really big enough to justify a messy leadership challenge right now 🤷
Excl: Labour would take a two-point lead over Reform with Andy Burnham as leader, new More In Common polling shows. www.newstatesman.com/politics/lab...
September 25, 2025 at 11:21 AM
A five point increase is a weird middle ground where you can reasonably confidently say if you swapped out Starmer for Burnham right now Labour would get a bump in the polls — but it's not really big enough to justify a messy leadership challenge right now 🤷