Conrad
@conradaml.bsky.social
PhDing @ University of Reading: 'DIVIDED: Inequality and Polarization Prevention' | New Zealand stuff for @oceaniaelects.bsky.social
Candidate quality does still matter, even if it's maybe a reduced effect than it used to be.
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
November 5, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Candidate quality does still matter, even if it's maybe a reduced effect than it used to be.
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Incumbent Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey at the moment is ahead but the city uses RCV and at the moment he's sill some distance from 50%. If the anti-Frey vote stays together it could go to Fateh and elect him, but the three main opposing candidates have disparate views — Fateh is much to their left
November 5, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Incumbent Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey at the moment is ahead but the city uses RCV and at the moment he's sill some distance from 50%. If the anti-Frey vote stays together it could go to Fateh and elect him, but the three main opposing candidates have disparate views — Fateh is much to their left
At the moment Mamdani is hitting the 50% mark, while Sliwa massively underperforms the polls — Cuomo probably did a good job of winning over lots of his voters as the tactical option, but Mamdani is doing notably better than his polling too.
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 AM
At the moment Mamdani is hitting the 50% mark, while Sliwa massively underperforms the polls — Cuomo probably did a good job of winning over lots of his voters as the tactical option, but Mamdani is doing notably better than his polling too.
Maine at the moment is looking like it easily rejecting new voting restrictions — good to see
November 5, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Maine at the moment is looking like it easily rejecting new voting restrictions — good to see
NYTimes forecast currently has Spanberger at 57%, if that holds then the amount of split ticket voting we're seeing isn't enough to get Miyares over the line
November 5, 2025 at 12:43 AM
NYTimes forecast currently has Spanberger at 57%, if that holds then the amount of split ticket voting we're seeing isn't enough to get Miyares over the line
Quite a lot of ticket splitting in Loudon County, Jones' margin is 11 points worse — though the gap is a little lower in other counties that are nearly fully counted.
November 5, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Quite a lot of ticket splitting in Loudon County, Jones' margin is 11 points worse — though the gap is a little lower in other counties that are nearly fully counted.
D66 last minute surge has them coming out on top in the exit poll (though within margin of error between them and PVV and VVD), and clearly some of this coming at the expense of GL/PvdA who underperform the polls and are not in contention for largest party. Also showing some resilience for VVD.
October 29, 2025 at 8:05 PM
D66 last minute surge has them coming out on top in the exit poll (though within margin of error between them and PVV and VVD), and clearly some of this coming at the expense of GL/PvdA who underperform the polls and are not in contention for largest party. Also showing some resilience for VVD.
Based on reporting we can maybe interpret this as high turnout driven by tactical anti-Reform voting. I think the question is though whether this holds if it had been viewed as Labour v Reform. Both Reform and Plaid benefit from challenger status here.
October 24, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Based on reporting we can maybe interpret this as high turnout driven by tactical anti-Reform voting. I think the question is though whether this holds if it had been viewed as Labour v Reform. Both Reform and Plaid benefit from challenger status here.
Don't remember a time where severe delays have persisted on the Northern line for multiple days, crazy stuff. Can't imagine TfL staff have been having a fun week.
October 23, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Don't remember a time where severe delays have persisted on the Northern line for multiple days, crazy stuff. Can't imagine TfL staff have been having a fun week.
This is not borne out in the data used in the article — 44% say Farage isn't racist... which means that Starmer has told the median voter they are racist and there'll be a backlash as result??? Insane jump
October 1, 2025 at 7:48 PM
This is not borne out in the data used in the article — 44% say Farage isn't racist... which means that Starmer has told the median voter they are racist and there'll be a backlash as result??? Insane jump
But the opposition is of course taking from the Trump playbook and casting doubt if election integrity
September 28, 2025 at 9:28 PM
But the opposition is of course taking from the Trump playbook and casting doubt if election integrity
🇲🇩PAS could be on the verge of a majority once the remaining votes are counted, which are very fabourable for PAS
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
September 28, 2025 at 9:27 PM
🇲🇩PAS could be on the verge of a majority once the remaining votes are counted, which are very fabourable for PAS
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
Genuinely what are we doing here? 100k+ far-right nationalists marching in London and all the government has to say is like "it shows we have free speech" or "gosh we're so divided"
Totally mad that they're too scared (I think?) to just outright oppose them
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
Totally mad that they're too scared (I think?) to just outright oppose them
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
September 14, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Genuinely what are we doing here? 100k+ far-right nationalists marching in London and all the government has to say is like "it shows we have free speech" or "gosh we're so divided"
Totally mad that they're too scared (I think?) to just outright oppose them
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
Totally mad that they're too scared (I think?) to just outright oppose them
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
South Vancouver Island, BC 🇨🇦🏞️
September 1, 2025 at 6:37 PM
South Vancouver Island, BC 🇨🇦🏞️
This is in line with the latest Probe Research poll which shows the PCs down by 15 outside of Winnipeg, bigger than the 7 point drop in Winnipeg — NDP are now the most popular party in the capital and outside of it.
probe-research.com/index.php/po...
probe-research.com/index.php/po...
August 27, 2025 at 10:45 AM
This is in line with the latest Probe Research poll which shows the PCs down by 15 outside of Winnipeg, bigger than the 7 point drop in Winnipeg — NDP are now the most popular party in the capital and outside of it.
probe-research.com/index.php/po...
probe-research.com/index.php/po...
Spruce Woods by-election in Manitoba confirms the Wab Kinew honeymoon is very big and very much ongoing
🔵 PC: 46.9% (-14.9)
🟠 NDP: 45.7% (+21.7)
🔴 Liberal: 7.4% (-6.8)
Two years is well above normal political "honeymoon" phase, a phenomenon which isn't even necessarily guaranteed for a new govt
🔵 PC: 46.9% (-14.9)
🟠 NDP: 45.7% (+21.7)
🔴 Liberal: 7.4% (-6.8)
Two years is well above normal political "honeymoon" phase, a phenomenon which isn't even necessarily guaranteed for a new govt
August 27, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Spruce Woods by-election in Manitoba confirms the Wab Kinew honeymoon is very big and very much ongoing
🔵 PC: 46.9% (-14.9)
🟠 NDP: 45.7% (+21.7)
🔴 Liberal: 7.4% (-6.8)
Two years is well above normal political "honeymoon" phase, a phenomenon which isn't even necessarily guaranteed for a new govt
🔵 PC: 46.9% (-14.9)
🟠 NDP: 45.7% (+21.7)
🔴 Liberal: 7.4% (-6.8)
Two years is well above normal political "honeymoon" phase, a phenomenon which isn't even necessarily guaranteed for a new govt
How is this guy even still a Labour MP, wtf!
August 22, 2025 at 8:57 AM
How is this guy even still a Labour MP, wtf!
Nationals attempt to get into the state parliament has been a failure, Andrew Jenner and Miriam Beswick just aren't established enough names to bring support over to the Nats — seen also with the other ex-JLN MP Rebekah Pentland who has also failed to be re-elected as an independent.
July 19, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Nationals attempt to get into the state parliament has been a failure, Andrew Jenner and Miriam Beswick just aren't established enough names to bring support over to the Nats — seen also with the other ex-JLN MP Rebekah Pentland who has also failed to be re-elected as an independent.
SV isn't even in Labour's interest compared with AV.
Take W of England mayoral: In SV who should LibDems second preference? Probably a lot of them went for the Green, but if they knew it was Labour v Reform they'd go for Labour.
No guessing game needed under AV and Labour would be clear winners
Take W of England mayoral: In SV who should LibDems second preference? Probably a lot of them went for the Green, but if they knew it was Labour v Reform they'd go for Labour.
No guessing game needed under AV and Labour would be clear winners
July 10, 2025 at 2:41 PM
SV isn't even in Labour's interest compared with AV.
Take W of England mayoral: In SV who should LibDems second preference? Probably a lot of them went for the Green, but if they knew it was Labour v Reform they'd go for Labour.
No guessing game needed under AV and Labour would be clear winners
Take W of England mayoral: In SV who should LibDems second preference? Probably a lot of them went for the Green, but if they knew it was Labour v Reform they'd go for Labour.
No guessing game needed under AV and Labour would be clear winners
Govt is finally going to switch Mayoral and PCC elections back to SV from FPTP. The switch to FPTP was stupid and motivated by Tory political advantage but SV, while better than FPTP, is still a poor system — hope we can have some discussion about AV.
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
July 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Govt is finally going to switch Mayoral and PCC elections back to SV from FPTP. The switch to FPTP was stupid and motivated by Tory political advantage but SV, while better than FPTP, is still a poor system — hope we can have some discussion about AV.
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
While challenger parties are succeeding in many parts of the world — in Quebec they are largely reverting now to their old two party system (both at one point presumed dead) after an experiment with the CAQ.
qc125.com
qc125.com
June 27, 2025 at 3:55 PM
While challenger parties are succeeding in many parts of the world — in Quebec they are largely reverting now to their old two party system (both at one point presumed dead) after an experiment with the CAQ.
qc125.com
qc125.com
JLN voters lean a bit more to Labor than the Liberals — evidenced by their other transfer stages at the last election. But they're also quite favourable to independent candidates as you might expect.
But with the Nationals trying to stage an entry into Tassie politics again, might they look there?
But with the Nationals trying to stage an entry into Tassie politics again, might they look there?
June 16, 2025 at 5:00 PM
JLN voters lean a bit more to Labor than the Liberals — evidenced by their other transfer stages at the last election. But they're also quite favourable to independent candidates as you might expect.
But with the Nationals trying to stage an entry into Tassie politics again, might they look there?
But with the Nationals trying to stage an entry into Tassie politics again, might they look there?
Jacqui Lambie Network aren't running in the Tassie snap election — got 6.7% of the vote last time, so where might those votes go?
Best indication of this from the last election is in Franklin — Stage 49 of transfers: the last JLN candidate was excluded with ALP, Lib, Grn, Ind candidates remaining
Best indication of this from the last election is in Franklin — Stage 49 of transfers: the last JLN candidate was excluded with ALP, Lib, Grn, Ind candidates remaining
June 16, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Jacqui Lambie Network aren't running in the Tassie snap election — got 6.7% of the vote last time, so where might those votes go?
Best indication of this from the last election is in Franklin — Stage 49 of transfers: the last JLN candidate was excluded with ALP, Lib, Grn, Ind candidates remaining
Best indication of this from the last election is in Franklin — Stage 49 of transfers: the last JLN candidate was excluded with ALP, Lib, Grn, Ind candidates remaining
The TCP swing map shows some of the story of the Australian election. Huge swings to Labor in the capitals Sydney (and a teal cluster), Brisbane, and Adelaide (SA was the state with the second biggest swing maybe boosted by the popularity of the state Labor govt), and Brisbane. 1/
May 28, 2025 at 7:07 PM
The TCP swing map shows some of the story of the Australian election. Huge swings to Labor in the capitals Sydney (and a teal cluster), Brisbane, and Adelaide (SA was the state with the second biggest swing maybe boosted by the popularity of the state Labor govt), and Brisbane. 1/