Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
@carlislerainey.bsky.social
political scientist at FSU; experimental design, inference (frequentist and Bayesian), metascience
Web: https://www.carlislerainey.com
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=otXLf3
Web: https://www.carlislerainey.com
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=otXLf3
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
Put together a quick starter pack for political methodologists (broadly defined) who have made their way over to BlueSky. If I've missed folks, please let me know!
go.bsky.app/JBavA7x
go.bsky.app/JBavA7x
November 25, 2024 at 12:30 AM
Put together a quick starter pack for political methodologists (broadly defined) who have made their way over to BlueSky. If I've missed folks, please let me know!
go.bsky.app/JBavA7x
go.bsky.app/JBavA7x
Don't forget to get your #SPSA2026 proposals submitted today!
The deadline is today.
It's January 14-17, 2026, in New Orleans. And it's always a great time.
spsa.net/annual-meeti...
The deadline is today.
It's January 14-17, 2026, in New Orleans. And it's always a great time.
spsa.net/annual-meeti...
2026 Conference Information – Southern Political Science Association
The purpose of the Southern Political Science Association (SPSA) shall be to publish professional journals, improve teaching, promote interest and research in theoretical and practical political probl...
spsa.net
September 15, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Don't forget to get your #SPSA2026 proposals submitted today!
The deadline is today.
It's January 14-17, 2026, in New Orleans. And it's always a great time.
spsa.net/annual-meeti...
The deadline is today.
It's January 14-17, 2026, in New Orleans. And it's always a great time.
spsa.net/annual-meeti...
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
This paper (and its working versions before it) have probably done more to reorient my thinking about design than anything else I've read. Just really critical work for political science to think about in any type of hypothesis testing environment. Well done to this team.
This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular.
"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."
(with A+ co-authors)
"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."
(with A+ co-authors)
September 11, 2025 at 2:10 PM
This paper (and its working versions before it) have probably done more to reorient my thinking about design than anything else I've read. Just really critical work for political science to think about in any type of hypothesis testing environment. Well done to this team.
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
I'm chairing methods this year. I'm looking forward to putting together some great panels. Submit your papers!
Deadline is Sept. 15!
Deadline is Sept. 15!
Didn't get your proposal in on time? No problem! We've extended our deadline for submissions to September 15. Submit here: convention2.allacademic.com/one/spsa/sps...
Southern Political Science Association 2026
convention2.allacademic.com
September 5, 2025 at 12:06 AM
I'm chairing methods this year. I'm looking forward to putting together some great panels. Submit your papers!
Deadline is Sept. 15!
Deadline is Sept. 15!
I'm chairing methods this year. I'm looking forward to putting together some great panels. Submit your papers!
Deadline is Sept. 15!
Deadline is Sept. 15!
Didn't get your proposal in on time? No problem! We've extended our deadline for submissions to September 15. Submit here: convention2.allacademic.com/one/spsa/sps...
Southern Political Science Association 2026
convention2.allacademic.com
September 5, 2025 at 12:06 AM
I'm chairing methods this year. I'm looking forward to putting together some great panels. Submit your papers!
Deadline is Sept. 15!
Deadline is Sept. 15!
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
Excellent reference for those, like me, who can always benefit from a refresher on statistical power
September 4, 2025 at 1:28 AM
Excellent reference for those, like me, who can always benefit from a refresher on statistical power
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power"
Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.
Not just to methods courses.
For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.
Not just to methods courses.
For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power – Carlisle Rainey
Five papers you can assign when teaching about statistical power: power analysis, minimum detectable effects, sample size planning, and design diagnosis.
www.carlislerainey.com
August 18, 2025 at 10:27 AM
New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power"
Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.
Not just to methods courses.
For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.
Not just to methods courses.
For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power"
Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.
Not just to methods courses.
For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.
Not just to methods courses.
For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power – Carlisle Rainey
Five papers you can assign when teaching about statistical power: power analysis, minimum detectable effects, sample size planning, and design diagnosis.
www.carlislerainey.com
August 18, 2025 at 10:27 AM
New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power"
Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.
Not just to methods courses.
For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.
Not just to methods courses.
For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
‼️Cool new paper‼️
Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable.
Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable.
Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
August 12, 2025 at 4:35 PM
‼️Cool new paper‼️
Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable.
Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable.
Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
An old boss once told me “each sentence should carry one idea and one idea only.” Good, Strunk and White-esque advice.
June 10, 2025 at 1:00 AM
An old boss once told me “each sentence should carry one idea and one idea only.” Good, Strunk and White-esque advice.
What’s the single best piece of feedback you’ve ever received on your writing—something that stuck with you and shaped how you write future papers?
June 9, 2025 at 11:30 AM
What’s the single best piece of feedback you’ve ever received on your writing—something that stuck with you and shaped how you write future papers?
I’d say pose a question to the class, ask students to brainstorm as individuals for 1 minute, discuss in groups of 3 for 3-5 minutes, and then discuss as a whole class.
Let's talk about teaching.
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
June 6, 2025 at 9:52 PM
I’d say pose a question to the class, ask students to brainstorm as individuals for 1 minute, discuss in groups of 3 for 3-5 minutes, and then discuss as a whole class.
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
Assign students to ask class-related questions and grade them on the quality/depth of those questions. Provide the feedback and use the questions to help shape what you do in the classroom. Hard to scale above 35-40 students, but has been super helpful to me.
Let's talk about teaching.
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
June 6, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Assign students to ask class-related questions and grade them on the quality/depth of those questions. Provide the feedback and use the questions to help shape what you do in the classroom. Hard to scale above 35-40 students, but has been super helpful to me.
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
1. We have a tendency to make things easier for students these days, but the more you demand, the more you will get back from the students (on average).
2. There is no teaching style that is best. Find what works for you and improve it over time.
2. There is no teaching style that is best. Find what works for you and improve it over time.
Let's talk about teaching.
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
June 6, 2025 at 11:51 AM
1. We have a tendency to make things easier for students these days, but the more you demand, the more you will get back from the students (on average).
2. There is no teaching style that is best. Find what works for you and improve it over time.
2. There is no teaching style that is best. Find what works for you and improve it over time.
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
1- Use real world examples.
2- Unpopular opinion: done in moderation, edutainment is not a bad approach. It breaks monotony and maintains engagement.
2- Unpopular opinion: done in moderation, edutainment is not a bad approach. It breaks monotony and maintains engagement.
Let's talk about teaching.
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
June 6, 2025 at 10:34 AM
1- Use real world examples.
2- Unpopular opinion: done in moderation, edutainment is not a bad approach. It breaks monotony and maintains engagement.
2- Unpopular opinion: done in moderation, edutainment is not a bad approach. It breaks monotony and maintains engagement.
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
1. Increasing the number of assigned readings typically has little if any relationship to the extent of reading that will happen, so focus on interesting assignments if you want to add to the course expectations.
2. Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t know but I’ll look into it.”
2. Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t know but I’ll look into it.”
Let's talk about teaching.
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
June 6, 2025 at 10:40 AM
1. Increasing the number of assigned readings typically has little if any relationship to the extent of reading that will happen, so focus on interesting assignments if you want to add to the course expectations.
2. Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t know but I’ll look into it.”
2. Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t know but I’ll look into it.”
Reposted by Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
Every single time, ask yourself what is the point of THIS talk to THIS audience, and then do something with the answer
Let's talk about teaching.
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
June 6, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Every single time, ask yourself what is the point of THIS talk to THIS audience, and then do something with the answer
Let's talk about teaching.
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
June 6, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Let's talk about teaching.
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching.
What advice would you give?
Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc.
Rules
1. Quote w/ your advice
2. Bonus for unpopular opinions
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞
In the social sciences, we over-value causal inference. As a result, we have an imbalance of evidence:
① too many good estimates of irrelevant causal effects
② too little good description of the world
In the social sciences, we over-value causal inference. As a result, we have an imbalance of evidence:
① too many good estimates of irrelevant causal effects
② too little good description of the world
June 5, 2025 at 10:50 AM
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞
In the social sciences, we over-value causal inference. As a result, we have an imbalance of evidence:
① too many good estimates of irrelevant causal effects
② too little good description of the world
In the social sciences, we over-value causal inference. As a result, we have an imbalance of evidence:
① too many good estimates of irrelevant causal effects
② too little good description of the world
Are s-values better than p-values?
June 4, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Are s-values better than p-values?
Top 15 ggplot2 extensions, by downloads during the last month.
Some surprises here, at least for me.
#rstats
Code: gist.github.com/carl...
Some surprises here, at least for me.
#rstats
Code: gist.github.com/carl...
June 3, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Top 15 ggplot2 extensions, by downloads during the last month.
Some surprises here, at least for me.
#rstats
Code: gist.github.com/carl...
Some surprises here, at least for me.
#rstats
Code: gist.github.com/carl...
“Does Threat Cause Increases in Conservatism? Evidence from Three Large Experiments in the United States Says No”
From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki
PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki
PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
June 2, 2025 at 11:57 AM
“Does Threat Cause Increases in Conservatism? Evidence from Three Large Experiments in the United States Says No”
From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki
PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki
PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
I just updated my post on equivalence testing with {marginaleffects} so that it's consistent with the latest version. (Some of the notes and code were outdated.)
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2023-08...
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2023-08...
Equivalence Tests with {marginaleffects}
Reproducing the Clark and Golder (2006) example from Rainey (2014)
www.carlislerainey.com
June 1, 2025 at 11:16 AM
I just updated my post on equivalence testing with {marginaleffects} so that it's consistent with the latest version. (Some of the notes and code were outdated.)
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2023-08...
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2023-08...