Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
@carlislerainey.bsky.social
political scientist at FSU; experimental design, inference (frequentist and Bayesian), metascience
Web: https://www.carlislerainey.com
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=otXLf3
Web: https://www.carlislerainey.com
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=otXLf3
Here's the idea.
Someone pops into your office and says "Hey, can you tell me about X?" You say sure--you give a 10 minute pitch. You describe the motivation, basic idea, and suggested resources.
I want to write these short pitches down. Here's a first one on power.
Someone pops into your office and says "Hey, can you tell me about X?" You say sure--you give a 10 minute pitch. You describe the motivation, basic idea, and suggested resources.
I want to write these short pitches down. Here's a first one on power.
September 4, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Here's the idea.
Someone pops into your office and says "Hey, can you tell me about X?" You say sure--you give a 10 minute pitch. You describe the motivation, basic idea, and suggested resources.
I want to write these short pitches down. Here's a first one on power.
Someone pops into your office and says "Hey, can you tell me about X?" You say sure--you give a 10 minute pitch. You describe the motivation, basic idea, and suggested resources.
I want to write these short pitches down. Here's a first one on power.
‼️Cool new paper‼️
Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable.
Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable.
Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
August 12, 2025 at 4:35 PM
‼️Cool new paper‼️
Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable.
Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable.
Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
Related to this new paper, in case you haven’t seen it yet.
GitHub: github.com/ArthurSpirli...
Gated JOP: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
GitHub: github.com/ArthurSpirli...
Gated JOP: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
June 6, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Related to this new paper, in case you haven’t seen it yet.
GitHub: github.com/ArthurSpirli...
Gated JOP: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
GitHub: github.com/ArthurSpirli...
Gated JOP: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
And here is the top 50.
(I see you {geomtextpath}!)
(I see you {geomtextpath}!)
June 3, 2025 at 6:59 PM
And here is the top 50.
(I see you {geomtextpath}!)
(I see you {geomtextpath}!)
Top 15 ggplot2 extensions, by downloads during the last month.
Some surprises here, at least for me.
#rstats
Code: gist.github.com/carl...
Some surprises here, at least for me.
#rstats
Code: gist.github.com/carl...
June 3, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Top 15 ggplot2 extensions, by downloads during the last month.
Some surprises here, at least for me.
#rstats
Code: gist.github.com/carl...
Some surprises here, at least for me.
#rstats
Code: gist.github.com/carl...
“Does Threat Cause Increases in Conservatism? Evidence from Three Large Experiments in the United States Says No”
From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki
PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki
PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
June 2, 2025 at 11:57 AM
“Does Threat Cause Increases in Conservatism? Evidence from Three Large Experiments in the United States Says No”
From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki
PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki
PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
“The pivot penalty in research”
This paper claims that when scientists switch research topics, their new work usually gets less attention, is less likely to be published, and has lower real-world impact.
Journal: www.nature.com/artic...
This paper claims that when scientists switch research topics, their new work usually gets less attention, is less likely to be published, and has lower real-world impact.
Journal: www.nature.com/artic...
May 30, 2025 at 11:45 AM
“The pivot penalty in research”
This paper claims that when scientists switch research topics, their new work usually gets less attention, is less likely to be published, and has lower real-world impact.
Journal: www.nature.com/artic...
This paper claims that when scientists switch research topics, their new work usually gets less attention, is less likely to be published, and has lower real-world impact.
Journal: www.nature.com/artic...
Regular Reminder
Please don’t interpret a “statistically insignificant” variable (i.e., p > 0.05) as having “no effect.”
Instead, check whether the 90% CI excludes all meaningful effects.
Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley....
PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...
Please don’t interpret a “statistically insignificant” variable (i.e., p > 0.05) as having “no effect.”
Instead, check whether the 90% CI excludes all meaningful effects.
Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley....
PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...
May 29, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Regular Reminder
Please don’t interpret a “statistically insignificant” variable (i.e., p > 0.05) as having “no effect.”
Instead, check whether the 90% CI excludes all meaningful effects.
Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley....
PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...
Please don’t interpret a “statistically insignificant” variable (i.e., p > 0.05) as having “no effect.”
Instead, check whether the 90% CI excludes all meaningful effects.
Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley....
PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...
"Improving the Teaching of Applied Statistics: Putting the Data Back into Data Analysis"
from Singer and Willet
jstor: www.jstor.org/stable...
👇good👍
1️⃣real data
2️⃣context info
3️⃣interesting
4️⃣teaches something real
5️⃣allows many methods
6️⃣raw
7️⃣case ID
from Singer and Willet
jstor: www.jstor.org/stable...
👇good👍
1️⃣real data
2️⃣context info
3️⃣interesting
4️⃣teaches something real
5️⃣allows many methods
6️⃣raw
7️⃣case ID
May 29, 2025 at 11:56 AM
"Improving the Teaching of Applied Statistics: Putting the Data Back into Data Analysis"
from Singer and Willet
jstor: www.jstor.org/stable...
👇good👍
1️⃣real data
2️⃣context info
3️⃣interesting
4️⃣teaches something real
5️⃣allows many methods
6️⃣raw
7️⃣case ID
from Singer and Willet
jstor: www.jstor.org/stable...
👇good👍
1️⃣real data
2️⃣context info
3️⃣interesting
4️⃣teaches something real
5️⃣allows many methods
6️⃣raw
7️⃣case ID
"What Good is a Regression? Inference to the Best Explanation and the Practice of Political Science Research"
from Spirling and Stewart
journal: doi.org/10.1086/734280
from Spirling and Stewart
journal: doi.org/10.1086/734280
May 28, 2025 at 11:35 AM
"What Good is a Regression? Inference to the Best Explanation and the Practice of Political Science Research"
from Spirling and Stewart
journal: doi.org/10.1086/734280
from Spirling and Stewart
journal: doi.org/10.1086/734280
"The value of preregistration for psychological science: A conceptual analysis"
from Lakens
paper: www.jstage.jst.go.jp...
from Lakens
paper: www.jstage.jst.go.jp...
May 27, 2025 at 11:30 AM
"The value of preregistration for psychological science: A conceptual analysis"
from Lakens
paper: www.jstage.jst.go.jp...
from Lakens
paper: www.jstage.jst.go.jp...
"Preregistration does not improve the transparent evaluation of severity in Popper’s philosophy of science or when deviations are allowed"
preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
May 26, 2025 at 11:42 AM
"Preregistration does not improve the transparent evaluation of severity in Popper’s philosophy of science or when deviations are allowed"
preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
"Social media consensus paper causes social media uproar"
link: www.science.org/cont...
original paper: osf.io/preprints/psy...
link: www.science.org/cont...
original paper: osf.io/preprints/psy...
May 23, 2025 at 11:46 AM
"Social media consensus paper causes social media uproar"
link: www.science.org/cont...
original paper: osf.io/preprints/psy...
link: www.science.org/cont...
original paper: osf.io/preprints/psy...
new preprint
"On the Foundations of the Design-Based Approach"
from Aronow, Jang, and Offer-Westort
"On the Foundations of the Design-Based Approach"
from Aronow, Jang, and Offer-Westort
May 21, 2025 at 11:57 AM
new preprint
"On the Foundations of the Design-Based Approach"
from Aronow, Jang, and Offer-Westort
"On the Foundations of the Design-Based Approach"
from Aronow, Jang, and Offer-Westort
“Who Knows How to Govern? Procedural Knowledge in India’s Small-Town Councils”
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
May 19, 2025 at 1:28 PM
“Who Knows How to Govern? Procedural Knowledge in India’s Small-Town Councils”
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Zack Elkins (@zachelkins.bsky.social) compiled a wonderful collection of perspectives on academic writing (esp. as a political scientists).
I use it often.
His page: sites.google.com/site/zachelk...
I made a backup here as well, so nothing is lost: github.com/carlislerain...
I use it often.
His page: sites.google.com/site/zachelk...
I made a backup here as well, so nothing is lost: github.com/carlislerain...
May 11, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Zack Elkins (@zachelkins.bsky.social) compiled a wonderful collection of perspectives on academic writing (esp. as a political scientists).
I use it often.
His page: sites.google.com/site/zachelk...
I made a backup here as well, so nothing is lost: github.com/carlislerain...
I use it often.
His page: sites.google.com/site/zachelk...
I made a backup here as well, so nothing is lost: github.com/carlislerain...
"The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics"
from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social)
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap.
Good to see more work making this point forcefully!
from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social)
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap.
Good to see more work making this point forcefully!
March 10, 2025 at 3:23 PM
"The Need for Equivalence Testing in Economics"
from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social)
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap.
Good to see more work making this point forcefully!
from Jack Fitzgerald (@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social)
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...
We know that "not significant" does not imply evidence for "no effect," but I still see papers make this leap.
Good to see more work making this point forcefully!
“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?”
by John Konicki
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
by John Konicki
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
March 10, 2025 at 1:35 PM
“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?”
by John Konicki
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
by John Konicki
Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
📣Just posted the final version of "Data and Code Availability in Political Science Publications from 1995 to 2022," coming out in PS (@pspolisci.bsky.social).
w/ Harley Roe (@harleyroe.bsky.social), Qing Wang, and Hao Zhou
#polisci #openscience #stats #preprint
📄Preprint: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
w/ Harley Roe (@harleyroe.bsky.social), Qing Wang, and Hao Zhou
#polisci #openscience #stats #preprint
📄Preprint: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
February 9, 2025 at 12:20 PM
📣Just posted the final version of "Data and Code Availability in Political Science Publications from 1995 to 2022," coming out in PS (@pspolisci.bsky.social).
w/ Harley Roe (@harleyroe.bsky.social), Qing Wang, and Hao Zhou
#polisci #openscience #stats #preprint
📄Preprint: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
w/ Harley Roe (@harleyroe.bsky.social), Qing Wang, and Hao Zhou
#polisci #openscience #stats #preprint
📄Preprint: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
I just made my Bluesky experience better.
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February 1, 2025 at 3:34 PM
I just made my Bluesky experience better.
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This essay flows from discussions with students and colleagues where I pitched power as a minor extension of estimation and inference. I share that perspective here to help folks extend their intuitions from estimation and inference to statistical power calculations.
January 25, 2025 at 2:18 PM
This essay flows from discussions with students and colleagues where I pitched power as a minor extension of estimation and inference. I share that perspective here to help folks extend their intuitions from estimation and inference to statistical power calculations.
"Power Rules: Practical Statistical Power Calculations"
Preprint DOI: doi.org/10.31219/osf...
#stats #polisky
Preprint DOI: doi.org/10.31219/osf...
#stats #polisky
January 25, 2025 at 11:57 AM
"Power Rules: Practical Statistical Power Calculations"
Preprint DOI: doi.org/10.31219/osf...
#stats #polisky
Preprint DOI: doi.org/10.31219/osf...
#stats #polisky
We've got 3 goals:
1️⃣ Highlight and formalize the problem with making inferences about a general phenomenon from a study of a single topic.
2️⃣ Emphasize the strengths of single-topic studies (see abridged text below).
3️⃣ Motivate topic-sampling from a different perspective.
1️⃣ Highlight and formalize the problem with making inferences about a general phenomenon from a study of a single topic.
2️⃣ Emphasize the strengths of single-topic studies (see abridged text below).
3️⃣ Motivate topic-sampling from a different perspective.
January 24, 2025 at 2:30 PM
We've got 3 goals:
1️⃣ Highlight and formalize the problem with making inferences about a general phenomenon from a study of a single topic.
2️⃣ Emphasize the strengths of single-topic studies (see abridged text below).
3️⃣ Motivate topic-sampling from a different perspective.
1️⃣ Highlight and formalize the problem with making inferences about a general phenomenon from a study of a single topic.
2️⃣ Emphasize the strengths of single-topic studies (see abridged text below).
3️⃣ Motivate topic-sampling from a different perspective.