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bollfrass.bsky.social
Alex Bollfrass
@bollfrass.bsky.social
1.9K followers 1.3K following 10 posts
Nuclear weapons and intelligence history.
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
🔎 New #IISS episode of "The Arms Control Primer": “Better know a non-nuke: Germany”. Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social talks with Prof Marina Henke& Dr Lutsch Andreas about Germany’s nuclear path, NATO sharing, the NPT & today’s deterrence debate amid Russia’s war. 🎧 tinyurl.com/3b9xezvz
December 5, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
South Africa is the only state to have built and then fully dismantled a nuclear arsenal. In the latest episode of The Arms Control Primer (#IISS), @bollfrass.bsky.social, Anna-Mart van Wyk and Robin Möser explore how and why it happened.
Listen: tinyurl.com/3n44fdbu
November 24, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
atomicanalyst.bsky.social
Today in 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis formally began when President John F. Kennedy was briefed on photographs from an October 14 U-2 overflight—analyzed at the National Photographic Interpretation Center on October 15—showing clear evidence of Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles on the island.
A color photograph of the mid-rise steel and glass building at Fifth and K Streets, NW, in Washington, DC, whose upper floors housed the CIA's National Photographic Interpretation Center. The building shared a block with Steuart Motor Company, a Ford dealership. black and white photograph of one of the work areas inside the National Photographic Interpretation Center. Two different work stations, separated by a partition, are labeled on the wall above as "Low Altitude Reconnaissance Exploitation," and "High Altitude Reconnaissance Exploitation." Each station features multiple angled light tables to closely examine images on spools of film. A declassified black and white aerial reconnaissance photograph taken by a U-2 surveillance plane on October 14, 1962 (but analyzed and annotated on October 15), showing a missile encampment at Los Palacios, Cuba (22-40N, 83-15W), with tents, 6 missile trailers, a truck convoy, and equipment labeled. A declassified black and white aerial reconnaissance photograph taken by a U-2 surveillance plane on October 14, 1962 (but analyzed and annotated on October 15), showing a medium-range ballistic missile launch site at San Diego De Los Banos, Cuba (22-40N, 83-17W), with tent areas, 8 missile trailers, "4 probable erector/launcher equipment," construction, and equipment labeled.
October 16, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
herzogsm.bsky.social
I was a guest on the IISS podcast "The Arms Control Primer" w/ @bollfrass.bsky.social & former @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Hans Blix. We covered some lessons of the Iraq case for nuclear nonproliferation & verification. Check out the new episode: www.iiss.org/podcasts/arm...
October 16, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
🚨 NEW SEASON 🚨

🎙️ Season 5 of The Arms Control Primer by #IISS kicks off!

Host @bollfrass.bsky.social with Dr. Nicole Grajewski & Dr. Azadeh Zamirirad unpack #Iran’s nuclear programme—from the Shah to the JCPOA, the 2025 Israel–Iran conflict & what’s next.

🔗 go.iiss.org/4mDZYuV
October 3, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
shashj.bsky.social
We’ve become basically desensitised to successive record breaking air attacks by Russia against Ukraine. “Russia launched almost 500 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight, Ukrainian forces said on Monday.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/w...
Russia Launches Biggest Drone Assault of the War, Ukraine Says
www.nytimes.com
June 9, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
nukestrat.bsky.social
French ambassador issues explicit nuclear security to NATO allies: “Our French vital interests also include the interests of our allies. In that perspective, the nuclear umbrella also applies to our allies and of course Sweden is among them.” www.svt.se/nyheter/loka...
April 24, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
🎧 The concluding episode of #IISS #TheArmsControlPoseur is here: Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social & Zuzanna Gwadera reflect on nuclear strategy, global risk dynamics & the future of #ArmsControl.

Catch the highlights from Season 4👇
🔗 tinyurl.com/wzu6ap6d

#NonProliferation #EUNPDC
April 24, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
jluisrodriguez.com
I'm thrilled that this @lawfaremedia.org piece is out! I trace how Mexico has tried to use international law to delegitimize a unilateral U.S. deployment of troops in Mexican territory vs cartels. I focus particularly on Mexico's rejection of the "unwilling or unable" doctrine of self-defense.
April 23, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
🎧 Tune in to the latest episode of #TheArmsControlPoseur by
#IISS featuring Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @dbsalisbury.bsky.social & @nktpnd.bsky.social on North Korea’s nuclear posture & what’s next for diplomacy. 🧵👇

🔗 tinyurl.com/2ja3b34z

#EUNPDC #NonProliferation #ArmsControl
April 10, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
"A cyber no first use agreement between India and Pakistan would serve as a foundational arms control measure [...]"

🎧 Listen to the latest #IISS podcast on #Pakistan with Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr @rabsaa.bsky.social & Dr
@mansoorahmed.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/4tvbufsp

#EUNPDC #ArmsControl
April 9, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
Host Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social is joined by experts Dr @rabsaa.bsky.social & Dr @mansoorahmed.bsky.social

Together they explore Pakistan’s nuclear history, evolving doctrine & the future of #ArmsControl in South Asia.

➡️https://tinyurl.com/4tvbufsp

#EUNPDC #NonProliferation
April 4, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
jjjcameron.bsky.social
If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Taking the Pulse: Can Europeans Build Their Independent Extended Nuclear Deterrent?
Confronted with a U.S. disengagement and the Russian threat, Europeans are reconsidering their stance on nuclear deterrence. Given the capabilities of the French and British arsenals, can Europe devel...
carnegieendowment.org
April 3, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
With host Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social & experts Dr Manpreet Sethi and Dr Jayita Sarkar.
🎧 Listen the full episode here ➡️ tinyurl.com/y45ewt5a
April 2, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
frhoffmann.bsky.social
New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me.

We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma.

Access the full piece via this link:

www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europ...

Short summary below:

1/x
Europe’s Nuclear Trilemma
The difficult and dangerous options for post-American deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 31, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
shashj.bsky.social
I wrote on some modelling & simulation looking at how climate change might affect anti-submarine warfare. On worst-case assumptions of change: “In the Bay of Biscay, off the French coast, a sub that could once be detected from 60km away will be spotted only at 20km” www.economist.com/science-and-...
Climate change may make it harder to spot submarines
The sound of their engines will not travel as far
www.economist.com
March 27, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
What shaped India’s #NuclearWeapons programme, and what risks remain in South Asia’s strategic landscape?

In the latest #IISS podcast #TheArmsControlPoseur, @bollfrass.bsky.social speaks with experts Dr Manpreet Sethi and Dr Jayita Sarkar. 🎧

🔗 tinyurl.com/y45ewt5a

#EUNPDC #India
March 27, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
🎧 Tune into the latest #IISS podcast, where host Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social is joined by leading nuclear policy expert Dr. Or Rabinowitz for an in-depth discussion on the history, strategic logic, and future of Israel’s nuclear programme.

tinyurl.com/ze9rjzp2
#EUNPDC #NonProliferation
March 25, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
🎙️New podcast episode: How is China’s nuclear posture evolving? In IISS’s #TheArmsControlPoseur, host @bollfrass.bsky.social talks with Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @tongzhao.bsky.social & Dr @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social on China’s nuclear expansion & its global impact.

🔗 Listen now: tinyurl.com/mr2acmx6
March 13, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
🎙 New episode of the #ArmsControlPoseur

Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social speaks w/@hfayet.bsky.social, Emmanuelle Maitre & Dr. @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social on France's #nuclear arsenal: its history, strategy & role in #EuropeanSecurity.

🎧 Listen now: 🔗 tinyurl.com/yc75dvmz

#ArmsControl #NonProliferation
S4.E4: Better know a nuke: France
Since the Cold War, France has charted an independent course in nuclear policy, without relying on external security guarantees. But what makes France’s nuclear strategy different from that of the Uni
tinyurl.com
March 6, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
maurogilli.bsky.social
Important reminder: long-range precision munitions are useless without accurate and real time targeting data - the geolocation of static targets or the tracking of mobile targets. We will see what it means in detail, definitively is going to shrink Ukraine capacity to fight.
financialtimes.com Financial Times @financialtimes.com · Mar 5
FT Exclusive: The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces. www.ft.com/content/c58f...
March 5, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
shashj.bsky.social
Bad, bad news. Unnecessary, punitive, vindictive. "The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces, according to officials familiar with the matter." www.ft.com/content/c58f...
US cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine
Fresh blow to embattled government in Kyiv as Trump administration shifts on conflict
www.ft.com
March 5, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
eunpdc.bsky.social
🎙️ NEW PODCAST: In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur from IISS, Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social, @lydiawachs.bsky.social & @baklitskiy.bsky.social discuss how Russia’s nuclear arsenal has evolved from the Soviet era & what #Armscontrol means for global security today.
🎧 Listen : tinyurl.com/59bkpxsf
S4.E2 Better know a nuke: The Soviet Union and Russia
How has the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics’ nuclear policy evolved into Russia’s current arsenal? How have arms control treaties shaped nuclear stability – or failed to do so? And how can fut
tinyurl.com
February 28, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
lydiawachs.bsky.social
New podcast🚀
@baklitskiy.bsky.social & I join @bollfrass.bsky.social on IISS' 'The Arms Control Poseur' podcast to discuss the evolution of #Russia's #nuclear arsenal, arms racing & arms control⬇️ open.spotify.com/episode/6uYh...
Better know a nuke: The Soviet Union and Russia
The Arms Control Poseur · Episode
open.spotify.com
February 20, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
shashj.bsky.social
Let’s be honest. Does anyone think that this president would honour Article Five? Presence of US military & nuclear sharing still has value to Europe, but its deterrent value is significantly reduced & falling. This is reckless, dangerous behaviour by the Trump administration.
February 19, 2025 at 5:32 PM