Ben Messenger
@benmessenger.bsky.social
QLDer, musician, Green, politics/elections nerd
There's this inscrutable belief among some progressive Labor supporters that the internal politics of Labor are really important to the direction of the country. If "progressive" Labor MPs lose to the Greens then that's progressive action set back because the main battleground is Labor's cabinet.
May 30, 2025 at 6:51 AM
There's this inscrutable belief among some progressive Labor supporters that the internal politics of Labor are really important to the direction of the country. If "progressive" Labor MPs lose to the Greens then that's progressive action set back because the main battleground is Labor's cabinet.
I want the Australian federal parliament to expand to:
90 senators (14 from each state, 3 from each territory)
~170 HoR seats
However I thought that was unlikely this term because Labor likely wouldn't want to dilute their favourable senate by growing the next class.
However...
90 senators (14 from each state, 3 from each territory)
~170 HoR seats
However I thought that was unlikely this term because Labor likely wouldn't want to dilute their favourable senate by growing the next class.
However...
May 20, 2025 at 8:22 AM
I want the Australian federal parliament to expand to:
90 senators (14 from each state, 3 from each territory)
~170 HoR seats
However I thought that was unlikely this term because Labor likely wouldn't want to dilute their favourable senate by growing the next class.
However...
90 senators (14 from each state, 3 from each territory)
~170 HoR seats
However I thought that was unlikely this term because Labor likely wouldn't want to dilute their favourable senate by growing the next class.
However...
The Australian electoral system is not perfect.
If our lower house were elected with a more proportional system our politics would better reflect the views of the people rather than deliver power on the basis of strange mathematical quirks.
If our lower house were elected with a more proportional system our politics would better reflect the views of the people rather than deliver power on the basis of strange mathematical quirks.
I think this debate could have been better with a more nuanced case against our single-member electoral system, so I wrote one here. #ausvotes
May 18, 2025 at 4:41 AM
The Australian electoral system is not perfect.
If our lower house were elected with a more proportional system our politics would better reflect the views of the people rather than deliver power on the basis of strange mathematical quirks.
If our lower house were elected with a more proportional system our politics would better reflect the views of the people rather than deliver power on the basis of strange mathematical quirks.
www.tallyroom.com.au/60511
Great article by Ben Raue. Look at this chart of how often states are an even split in the current allocation of 6 senators per half senate election.
Some day soon we should expand the parliament and ensure each state can give a decisive result.
Great article by Ben Raue. Look at this chart of how often states are an even split in the current allocation of 6 senators per half senate election.
Some day soon we should expand the parliament and ensure each state can give a decisive result.
May 11, 2025 at 2:33 AM
www.tallyroom.com.au/60511
Great article by Ben Raue. Look at this chart of how often states are an even split in the current allocation of 6 senators per half senate election.
Some day soon we should expand the parliament and ensure each state can give a decisive result.
Great article by Ben Raue. Look at this chart of how often states are an even split in the current allocation of 6 senators per half senate election.
Some day soon we should expand the parliament and ensure each state can give a decisive result.
I saw some One Nation signage with "we've got to guts to say what you're thinking" and for the first time I've realised the full extent of how stupid that phrase is.
Rather than spend advertising space claiming that you're saying something why not have the guts to, you know, actually say it?
Rather than spend advertising space claiming that you're saying something why not have the guts to, you know, actually say it?
May 4, 2025 at 3:48 AM
I saw some One Nation signage with "we've got to guts to say what you're thinking" and for the first time I've realised the full extent of how stupid that phrase is.
Rather than spend advertising space claiming that you're saying something why not have the guts to, you know, actually say it?
Rather than spend advertising space claiming that you're saying something why not have the guts to, you know, actually say it?
Pollbludger has a wonderful 3 candidate preferred projection in their results tabulation. It let me quickly make this graph.
May 4, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Pollbludger has a wonderful 3 candidate preferred projection in their results tabulation. It let me quickly make this graph.
I think prepoll split booths should be much rarer in Australian politics.
Low engagement and ESL voters don't know what seat they're from. With so many independents and minor parties running the probability they find the right part of a HTV card amongst all the pieces of paper is quite low.
Low engagement and ESL voters don't know what seat they're from. With so many independents and minor parties running the probability they find the right part of a HTV card amongst all the pieces of paper is quite low.
April 29, 2025 at 6:27 AM
I think prepoll split booths should be much rarer in Australian politics.
Low engagement and ESL voters don't know what seat they're from. With so many independents and minor parties running the probability they find the right part of a HTV card amongst all the pieces of paper is quite low.
Low engagement and ESL voters don't know what seat they're from. With so many independents and minor parties running the probability they find the right part of a HTV card amongst all the pieces of paper is quite low.
The Vic Socialists do preferences the right way. Preference who is ideologically similar, no matter what.
The confusing "deals" that micro parties try to do just discredit themselves and rarely even help them gain seats or an outcome.
The confusing "deals" that micro parties try to do just discredit themselves and rarely even help them gain seats or an outcome.
April 25, 2025 at 1:24 AM
The Vic Socialists do preferences the right way. Preference who is ideologically similar, no matter what.
The confusing "deals" that micro parties try to do just discredit themselves and rarely even help them gain seats or an outcome.
The confusing "deals" that micro parties try to do just discredit themselves and rarely even help them gain seats or an outcome.
I'm not aware of a prepoll exit poll being released before polls closed ever before.
I think it's a bad trend and bad data.
Comparing a sample of prepoll voters on the first two days of prepoll to the *total* prepoll behaviour in the previous election is not comparing the same cohort of voters.
I think it's a bad trend and bad data.
Comparing a sample of prepoll voters on the first two days of prepoll to the *total* prepoll behaviour in the previous election is not comparing the same cohort of voters.
April 24, 2025 at 12:36 AM
I'm not aware of a prepoll exit poll being released before polls closed ever before.
I think it's a bad trend and bad data.
Comparing a sample of prepoll voters on the first two days of prepoll to the *total* prepoll behaviour in the previous election is not comparing the same cohort of voters.
I think it's a bad trend and bad data.
Comparing a sample of prepoll voters on the first two days of prepoll to the *total* prepoll behaviour in the previous election is not comparing the same cohort of voters.
Why I'm always wary of micro parties, especially single issue ones. The chance of candidates being completely off the deep end is significantly higher.
Guess what some guys who think "Hitler did nothing wrong" are also on drugs, so might associate with the LCP.
Guess what some guys who think "Hitler did nothing wrong" are also on drugs, so might associate with the LCP.
Legalise Cannabis has disendorsed Paul Gullan – its candidate for the Liberal-held WA seat of Canning – over a "trail of antisemitic rants", The West Australian reports
Gullan still appears on the ballot as a Legalise Cannabis candidate, as pre-polling has already begun
Gullan still appears on the ballot as a Legalise Cannabis candidate, as pre-polling has already begun
April 23, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Why I'm always wary of micro parties, especially single issue ones. The chance of candidates being completely off the deep end is significantly higher.
Guess what some guys who think "Hitler did nothing wrong" are also on drugs, so might associate with the LCP.
Guess what some guys who think "Hitler did nothing wrong" are also on drugs, so might associate with the LCP.
My strange opinion is that most of the FUSION constituent parties (and other left-of-centre micro parties like AJP and some Socialists) could be factions within the Greens if the Greens had a more transparent and organised way for factions to exist.
And it would be symbioticly beneficial to both.
And it would be symbioticly beneficial to both.
Just posted my longest review ever on my election blog. I had previously reviewed Fusion and its constituents favourably to varying degrees. There are many worse parties out there, but I felt I needed to explain at length why I think Fusion is a poor choice in 2025, especially for left-wing voters
Blatantly Partisan Party Review X (federal 2025): FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation
Running where: five states for the Senate (not TAS), plus a smattering of House seats across four states (not TAS or WA)
Prior reviews: federal 2022 (which links to my past reviews of most constituent...
axvoter.tumblr.com
April 18, 2025 at 12:08 PM
My strange opinion is that most of the FUSION constituent parties (and other left-of-centre micro parties like AJP and some Socialists) could be factions within the Greens if the Greens had a more transparent and organised way for factions to exist.
And it would be symbioticly beneficial to both.
And it would be symbioticly beneficial to both.
I did my best to graph Redbridge's latest MRP in seats where 3 party dynamics are in play.
Unfortunately unlike the YouGov MRP in these ones the 4th party data is all jumbled up. Presume *very* high variance. Also in general Redbridge has far stranger looking Green primary votes.
Unfortunately unlike the YouGov MRP in these ones the 4th party data is all jumbled up. Presume *very* high variance. Also in general Redbridge has far stranger looking Green primary votes.
April 18, 2025 at 5:36 AM
I did my best to graph Redbridge's latest MRP in seats where 3 party dynamics are in play.
Unfortunately unlike the YouGov MRP in these ones the 4th party data is all jumbled up. Presume *very* high variance. Also in general Redbridge has far stranger looking Green primary votes.
Unfortunately unlike the YouGov MRP in these ones the 4th party data is all jumbled up. Presume *very* high variance. Also in general Redbridge has far stranger looking Green primary votes.
We really squander the resources of the planet. We have a growing number of EV car batteries sitting around rarely working for us and meanwhile power is basically free when the sun is shining (we have "too many" solar panels now) and expensive just after the sun goes down.
April 18, 2025 at 12:42 AM
We really squander the resources of the planet. We have a growing number of EV car batteries sitting around rarely working for us and meanwhile power is basically free when the sun is shining (we have "too many" solar panels now) and expensive just after the sun goes down.
Can anybody find the seat-by-seat data for the Redbridge MRP?
I want to make some 3PP graphs out of it like I did with the YouGov MRPs but I can't find it.
@kossamaras.bsky.social
I want to make some 3PP graphs out of it like I did with the YouGov MRPs but I can't find it.
@kossamaras.bsky.social
April 17, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Can anybody find the seat-by-seat data for the Redbridge MRP?
I want to make some 3PP graphs out of it like I did with the YouGov MRPs but I can't find it.
@kossamaras.bsky.social
I want to make some 3PP graphs out of it like I did with the YouGov MRPs but I can't find it.
@kossamaras.bsky.social
Reposted by Ben Messenger
Button pressed on WA Legislative Council count at 3pm tomorrow
April 15, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Button pressed on WA Legislative Council count at 3pm tomorrow
Reposted by Ben Messenger
As an aside, Vader, D?
Liberals are putting Family First 2nd on their Senate how-to-vote.
Family First will:
– Allow religious schools to fire gay teachers
– Deny women reproductive healthcare options
– Strip rights from gender diverse people
What are the Liberals doing?
Family First will:
– Allow religious schools to fire gay teachers
– Deny women reproductive healthcare options
– Strip rights from gender diverse people
What are the Liberals doing?
April 15, 2025 at 7:35 AM
As an aside, Vader, D?
Reposted by Ben Messenger
Coalition scores just 1/100 points for environment and climate policies from conservation organisation
Coalition scores just 1/100 points for environment and climate policies from conservation organisation
Australian Conservation Foundation says opposition has ‘failed every single test’ while Labor passes with 54% and Greens achieve 98%
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One of Australia’s largest conservation organisations has awarded the federal Coalition just 1 out of 100 for its environment and climate change policies – the lowest score it has given the Liberal and National parties in more than 20 years of compiling pre-election scorecards.
Labor scraped through with a pass – on 54% – while the Greens achieved 98%, according to the scorecard, which ranked the major parties and key independents on their policies for protecting nature, championing renewable energy, and rejecting nuclear and fossil fuels.
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www.theguardian.com
April 14, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Coalition scores just 1/100 points for environment and climate policies from conservation organisation
Labor's next housing thought bubble
April 12, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Labor's next housing thought bubble
Josh Burns (Labor, Macnamara) has announced that his How To Vote card will be "open", ie- will *not* recommend who to put higher out of Sonya Semmens (Greens) and Benson Saulo (Liberal).
I've graphed what that would mean in the extreme case where the Labor voter preferences split evenly.
I've graphed what that would mean in the extreme case where the Labor voter preferences split evenly.
April 11, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Josh Burns (Labor, Macnamara) has announced that his How To Vote card will be "open", ie- will *not* recommend who to put higher out of Sonya Semmens (Greens) and Benson Saulo (Liberal).
I've graphed what that would mean in the extreme case where the Labor voter preferences split evenly.
I've graphed what that would mean in the extreme case where the Labor voter preferences split evenly.
Instead of executing the US economy with an axe to the neck Trump has announced they'll starting by chopping off a leg.
I don't think the market bounce makes sense unless it's anticipated for Trump to at some point back off from the 100+% tariff on Chinese goods and 10% tariffs on everyone else.
I don't think the market bounce makes sense unless it's anticipated for Trump to at some point back off from the 100+% tariff on Chinese goods and 10% tariffs on everyone else.
April 10, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Instead of executing the US economy with an axe to the neck Trump has announced they'll starting by chopping off a leg.
I don't think the market bounce makes sense unless it's anticipated for Trump to at some point back off from the 100+% tariff on Chinese goods and 10% tariffs on everyone else.
I don't think the market bounce makes sense unless it's anticipated for Trump to at some point back off from the 100+% tariff on Chinese goods and 10% tariffs on everyone else.
The US tarrifs are completely stupid.
My question is, how long before much damage is permenant?
Like, if Trump backflipped right now surely the market would bounce nearly totally back immediately?
What about in a month. There'd be more net loss?
What if he sticks to it until after the midterms?
My question is, how long before much damage is permenant?
Like, if Trump backflipped right now surely the market would bounce nearly totally back immediately?
What about in a month. There'd be more net loss?
What if he sticks to it until after the midterms?
April 7, 2025 at 10:04 AM
The US tarrifs are completely stupid.
My question is, how long before much damage is permenant?
Like, if Trump backflipped right now surely the market would bounce nearly totally back immediately?
What about in a month. There'd be more net loss?
What if he sticks to it until after the midterms?
My question is, how long before much damage is permenant?
Like, if Trump backflipped right now surely the market would bounce nearly totally back immediately?
What about in a month. There'd be more net loss?
What if he sticks to it until after the midterms?
Reposted by Ben Messenger
Queensland children as young as 10 could face life in prison for non-violent crime under new laws
Queensland children as young as 10 could face life in prison for non-violent crime under new laws
LNP admits legislation contradicts international and domestic human rights and would disproportionately affect Indigenous children
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Children as young as 10 could be sentenced to life behind bars for some non-violent offences under new youth justice laws in Queensland.
The legislation, introduced into parliament by premier David Crisafulli on Tuesday, would also curtail children’s rights to protection from cruel, inhumane or degrading treatment while locked up, and contradict international and domestic human rights laws, the government has admitted.
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www.theguardian.com
April 1, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Queensland children as young as 10 could face life in prison for non-violent crime under new laws
Vote Compass is out now!
April 1, 2025 at 5:22 AM
Vote Compass is out now!
I fixed some boneheaded errors and improved the colours on my previous post graphing today's YouGov MRP to show the seats where 3PP dynamics involving the Greens are closest to relevant.
I'm doing the independent seats now.
I'm doing the independent seats now.
March 30, 2025 at 11:49 AM
I fixed some boneheaded errors and improved the colours on my previous post graphing today's YouGov MRP to show the seats where 3PP dynamics involving the Greens are closest to relevant.
I'm doing the independent seats now.
I'm doing the independent seats now.
Did a 3PP graphed of the more relevant Green seats with the new YouGov MRP numbers.
The Greens really need to perform much better than this in their target seats or they would fall over. The weakness of the Liberals across the board is also a spoiler (if true).
The Greens really need to perform much better than this in their target seats or they would fall over. The weakness of the Liberals across the board is also a spoiler (if true).
March 30, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Did a 3PP graphed of the more relevant Green seats with the new YouGov MRP numbers.
The Greens really need to perform much better than this in their target seats or they would fall over. The weakness of the Liberals across the board is also a spoiler (if true).
The Greens really need to perform much better than this in their target seats or they would fall over. The weakness of the Liberals across the board is also a spoiler (if true).