Ben Messenger
@benmessenger.bsky.social
QLDer, musician, Green, politics/elections nerd
Much has been said about the decline of the major party vote. What is not well understood in the mainstream is that our current voting system is really poorly equipped to deliver results that reflect that.
The more people vote for other parties the worse less proportional our election results.
The more people vote for other parties the worse less proportional our election results.
May 18, 2025 at 4:43 AM
Much has been said about the decline of the major party vote. What is not well understood in the mainstream is that our current voting system is really poorly equipped to deliver results that reflect that.
The more people vote for other parties the worse less proportional our election results.
The more people vote for other parties the worse less proportional our election results.
B2EMO waiting for Cassian to come back
May 12, 2025 at 6:06 AM
B2EMO waiting for Cassian to come back
2016 was left out by Ben Raue because it was a double dissolution, but in a hypothetical half-senate (best represented by the s282 recount) it would have had some even splits.
May 11, 2025 at 3:19 AM
2016 was left out by Ben Raue because it was a double dissolution, but in a hypothetical half-senate (best represented by the s282 recount) it would have had some even splits.
www.tallyroom.com.au/60511
Great article by Ben Raue. Look at this chart of how often states are an even split in the current allocation of 6 senators per half senate election.
Some day soon we should expand the parliament and ensure each state can give a decisive result.
Great article by Ben Raue. Look at this chart of how often states are an even split in the current allocation of 6 senators per half senate election.
Some day soon we should expand the parliament and ensure each state can give a decisive result.
May 11, 2025 at 2:33 AM
www.tallyroom.com.au/60511
Great article by Ben Raue. Look at this chart of how often states are an even split in the current allocation of 6 senators per half senate election.
Some day soon we should expand the parliament and ensure each state can give a decisive result.
Great article by Ben Raue. Look at this chart of how often states are an even split in the current allocation of 6 senators per half senate election.
Some day soon we should expand the parliament and ensure each state can give a decisive result.
That above chart is the electoral performance of SYRIZA which you could consider the Greek equivalent of the Greens.
Below is the performance of PASOK which the process is named after, and could be considered the Greek equivalent of the ALP.
Below is the performance of PASOK which the process is named after, and could be considered the Greek equivalent of the ALP.
May 5, 2025 at 5:58 AM
That above chart is the electoral performance of SYRIZA which you could consider the Greek equivalent of the Greens.
Below is the performance of PASOK which the process is named after, and could be considered the Greek equivalent of the ALP.
Below is the performance of PASOK which the process is named after, and could be considered the Greek equivalent of the ALP.
It's not within the sole agency of the Greens to engineer that kind of step change in Australian politics.
The causes of PASOKification are many and are hard to study.
I'm just pointing out "magically go from 14% to 36%" can and has literally happened before for left wing parties.
The causes of PASOKification are many and are hard to study.
I'm just pointing out "magically go from 14% to 36%" can and has literally happened before for left wing parties.
May 5, 2025 at 5:55 AM
It's not within the sole agency of the Greens to engineer that kind of step change in Australian politics.
The causes of PASOKification are many and are hard to study.
I'm just pointing out "magically go from 14% to 36%" can and has literally happened before for left wing parties.
The causes of PASOKification are many and are hard to study.
I'm just pointing out "magically go from 14% to 36%" can and has literally happened before for left wing parties.
Pollbludger has a wonderful 3 candidate preferred projection in their results tabulation. It let me quickly make this graph.
May 4, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Pollbludger has a wonderful 3 candidate preferred projection in their results tabulation. It let me quickly make this graph.
Australia's population growth rate "post-Howard" hasn't been increasing at all.
In fact Australia had a sustained period of higher growth 1945-1975.
In fact Australia had a sustained period of higher growth 1945-1975.
April 22, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Australia's population growth rate "post-Howard" hasn't been increasing at all.
In fact Australia had a sustained period of higher growth 1945-1975.
In fact Australia had a sustained period of higher growth 1945-1975.
Enjoyable article. I would say this paragraph is the strongest:
April 18, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Enjoyable article. I would say this paragraph is the strongest:
I did my best to graph Redbridge's latest MRP in seats where 3 party dynamics are in play.
Unfortunately unlike the YouGov MRP in these ones the 4th party data is all jumbled up. Presume *very* high variance. Also in general Redbridge has far stranger looking Green primary votes.
Unfortunately unlike the YouGov MRP in these ones the 4th party data is all jumbled up. Presume *very* high variance. Also in general Redbridge has far stranger looking Green primary votes.
April 18, 2025 at 5:36 AM
I did my best to graph Redbridge's latest MRP in seats where 3 party dynamics are in play.
Unfortunately unlike the YouGov MRP in these ones the 4th party data is all jumbled up. Presume *very* high variance. Also in general Redbridge has far stranger looking Green primary votes.
Unfortunately unlike the YouGov MRP in these ones the 4th party data is all jumbled up. Presume *very* high variance. Also in general Redbridge has far stranger looking Green primary votes.
Ian Sykes challenged the eligibility of the top 3 candidates, and they were all deemed ineligible!!!
April 16, 2025 at 11:33 AM
Ian Sykes challenged the eligibility of the top 3 candidates, and they were all deemed ineligible!!!
April 16, 2025 at 11:27 AM
It's a real policy btw
April 12, 2025 at 1:26 PM
It's a real policy btw
Labor's next housing thought bubble
April 12, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Labor's next housing thought bubble
Josh Burns (Labor, Macnamara) has announced that his How To Vote card will be "open", ie- will *not* recommend who to put higher out of Sonya Semmens (Greens) and Benson Saulo (Liberal).
I've graphed what that would mean in the extreme case where the Labor voter preferences split evenly.
I've graphed what that would mean in the extreme case where the Labor voter preferences split evenly.
April 11, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Josh Burns (Labor, Macnamara) has announced that his How To Vote card will be "open", ie- will *not* recommend who to put higher out of Sonya Semmens (Greens) and Benson Saulo (Liberal).
I've graphed what that would mean in the extreme case where the Labor voter preferences split evenly.
I've graphed what that would mean in the extreme case where the Labor voter preferences split evenly.
I note that my analysis of the last YouGov MRP put it as the 2nd most lineball "Teal" or independent seat (after Casey, but somehow I haven't seen much talk about Casey)
April 8, 2025 at 12:35 PM
I note that my analysis of the last YouGov MRP put it as the 2nd most lineball "Teal" or independent seat (after Casey, but somehow I haven't seen much talk about Casey)
Well I would presume most of the Independents are around about here.
Exceptions: Katter, Pocock, Le
Exceptions: Katter, Pocock, Le
April 1, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Well I would presume most of the Independents are around about here.
Exceptions: Katter, Pocock, Le
Exceptions: Katter, Pocock, Le
Vote Compass is out now!
April 1, 2025 at 5:22 AM
Vote Compass is out now!
Independents (Rebekah Sharkie counts as an independent for this graph)
The shape of the graph is a lot less reliable than the Green one because some independents might have significantly different preference flows.
The shape of the graph is a lot less reliable than the Green one because some independents might have significantly different preference flows.
March 30, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Independents (Rebekah Sharkie counts as an independent for this graph)
The shape of the graph is a lot less reliable than the Green one because some independents might have significantly different preference flows.
The shape of the graph is a lot less reliable than the Green one because some independents might have significantly different preference flows.
I fixed some boneheaded errors and improved the colours on my previous post graphing today's YouGov MRP to show the seats where 3PP dynamics involving the Greens are closest to relevant.
I'm doing the independent seats now.
I'm doing the independent seats now.
March 30, 2025 at 11:49 AM
I fixed some boneheaded errors and improved the colours on my previous post graphing today's YouGov MRP to show the seats where 3PP dynamics involving the Greens are closest to relevant.
I'm doing the independent seats now.
I'm doing the independent seats now.
Typos in data entry!
Ryan and Brisbane I made errors in the Green's disfavour, quick and dirty fix.
Brisbane is sharing a dot with Richmond.
Ryan and Brisbane I made errors in the Green's disfavour, quick and dirty fix.
Brisbane is sharing a dot with Richmond.
March 30, 2025 at 4:32 AM
Typos in data entry!
Ryan and Brisbane I made errors in the Green's disfavour, quick and dirty fix.
Brisbane is sharing a dot with Richmond.
Ryan and Brisbane I made errors in the Green's disfavour, quick and dirty fix.
Brisbane is sharing a dot with Richmond.
Did a 3PP graphed of the more relevant Green seats with the new YouGov MRP numbers.
The Greens really need to perform much better than this in their target seats or they would fall over. The weakness of the Liberals across the board is also a spoiler (if true).
The Greens really need to perform much better than this in their target seats or they would fall over. The weakness of the Liberals across the board is also a spoiler (if true).
March 30, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Did a 3PP graphed of the more relevant Green seats with the new YouGov MRP numbers.
The Greens really need to perform much better than this in their target seats or they would fall over. The weakness of the Liberals across the board is also a spoiler (if true).
The Greens really need to perform much better than this in their target seats or they would fall over. The weakness of the Liberals across the board is also a spoiler (if true).
If the Liberals continue to get weaker in city seats over time then it's plausible that at some point a centrist independent ends up with the balance of power by winning a seat Labor *could* win in a head-to-head against a Liberal.
March 18, 2025 at 10:24 PM
If the Liberals continue to get weaker in city seats over time then it's plausible that at some point a centrist independent ends up with the balance of power by winning a seat Labor *could* win in a head-to-head against a Liberal.