Anil Vohra
@anilvohra.bsky.social
Retired rates options (gamma) trader. Macro & markets. Tri National. Devout foodie. Neapolitan Pizza, Focaccia.
Victoria,BC (ex Westport,CT)
In process of transitioning from Elmo’s Evil Empire (@AnilVohra1962)
Victoria,BC (ex Westport,CT)
In process of transitioning from Elmo’s Evil Empire (@AnilVohra1962)
Funny how the market pattern statistics spewing perma-Bulls fail to mention something like this.
Read both of Conor’s posts (bearish if, bullish if).
I wonder how many of strong results in the first table were Bear market rallies (powerful but short lived).
Read both of Conor’s posts (bearish if, bullish if).
I wonder how many of strong results in the first table were Bear market rallies (powerful but short lived).
Going back 70 years, when the S&P 500 was down in both March and Q1 overall, returns for the rest of the year were on average pretty mediocre:
March 29, 2025 at 6:29 AM
Funny how the market pattern statistics spewing perma-Bulls fail to mention something like this.
Read both of Conor’s posts (bearish if, bullish if).
I wonder how many of strong results in the first table were Bear market rallies (powerful but short lived).
Read both of Conor’s posts (bearish if, bullish if).
I wonder how many of strong results in the first table were Bear market rallies (powerful but short lived).
Reposted by Anil Vohra
Tesla Shares Post Worst Week Since October as Sales Plunge
Tesla shares tumbled ~11% last week, weighed down by shockingly bad sales reports from around the world.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Tesla shares tumbled ~11% last week, weighed down by shockingly bad sales reports from around the world.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
February 11, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Tesla Shares Post Worst Week Since October as Sales Plunge
Tesla shares tumbled ~11% last week, weighed down by shockingly bad sales reports from around the world.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Tesla shares tumbled ~11% last week, weighed down by shockingly bad sales reports from around the world.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Greater efficiency (profits) though less investigation (safety)
“.. ‘If the rules are such that you can’t make progress, then you have to fight the rules,’ Mr. Musk said in an authorized biography published in 2015.”
@nytimes.com @ericlipton.nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/11/u...
@nytimes.com @ericlipton.nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/11/u...
February 12, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Greater efficiency (profits) though less investigation (safety)
CAN/US Trade (2023) in CAD$
EXPORTS to US:
Energy 29%: $172b x 10% = $17b
Services 18%: $105b
Goods: 53%: $316b x 25% = $79b
Total: $593b
US Tariff: $96b
IMPORTS from US:
Total : $374b
CAN Tariff: 25% x $155b = $39b
Canada tariffs are 40% of US tariffs.
EXPORTS to US:
Energy 29%: $172b x 10% = $17b
Services 18%: $105b
Goods: 53%: $316b x 25% = $79b
Total: $593b
US Tariff: $96b
IMPORTS from US:
Total : $374b
CAN Tariff: 25% x $155b = $39b
Canada tariffs are 40% of US tariffs.
February 2, 2025 at 9:32 PM
CAN/US Trade (2023) in CAD$
EXPORTS to US:
Energy 29%: $172b x 10% = $17b
Services 18%: $105b
Goods: 53%: $316b x 25% = $79b
Total: $593b
US Tariff: $96b
IMPORTS from US:
Total : $374b
CAN Tariff: 25% x $155b = $39b
Canada tariffs are 40% of US tariffs.
EXPORTS to US:
Energy 29%: $172b x 10% = $17b
Services 18%: $105b
Goods: 53%: $316b x 25% = $79b
Total: $593b
US Tariff: $96b
IMPORTS from US:
Total : $374b
CAN Tariff: 25% x $155b = $39b
Canada tariffs are 40% of US tariffs.
DOGE is a poorly disguised cover for collecting all U.S. gov data for training of Musk’s AI, which he will roll into a new company called X-AI. X-AI will buy all of TSLA’s AI tech in exchange for his 20% of the company. After that TSLA will collapse and Elon will be the most powerful person.
NEW: Sources tell my office that Treasury Secretary Bessent has granted DOGE *full* access to this system. Social Security and Medicare benefits, grants, payments to government contractors, including those that compete directly with Musk's own companies. All of it.
NEWS: Wyden Demands Answers Following Report of Musk Personnel Seeking Access to Highly Sensitive U.S. Treasury Payments System
February 1, 2025 at 10:01 PM
DOGE is a poorly disguised cover for collecting all U.S. gov data for training of Musk’s AI, which he will roll into a new company called X-AI. X-AI will buy all of TSLA’s AI tech in exchange for his 20% of the company. After that TSLA will collapse and Elon will be the most powerful person.
Reposted by Anil Vohra
President inaugurations have occurred only 3 times on Martin Luther King Day. All were 2nd term inaugurations:
1997 - Clinton
2013 - Obama
2025 - Trump
1997 - Clinton
2013 - Obama
2025 - Trump
January 19, 2025 at 7:31 PM
President inaugurations have occurred only 3 times on Martin Luther King Day. All were 2nd term inaugurations:
1997 - Clinton
2013 - Obama
2025 - Trump
1997 - Clinton
2013 - Obama
2025 - Trump
Reducing Reverse Repo Balance at the Treasury adds liquidity to financial markets. Yellen has drawn it down to $95b leaving her successor with few tools to keep the market up.
via @bravosresearch
via @bravosresearch
January 17, 2025 at 5:47 AM
Reducing Reverse Repo Balance at the Treasury adds liquidity to financial markets. Yellen has drawn it down to $95b leaving her successor with few tools to keep the market up.
via @bravosresearch
via @bravosresearch
Hedge Funds have reduced their leverage at the fastest pace in more than 2.5 years
Via @barchart.com
Via @barchart.com
January 17, 2025 at 5:39 AM
Hedge Funds have reduced their leverage at the fastest pace in more than 2.5 years
Via @barchart.com
Via @barchart.com
Elon Musk to get new office in the White House.
January 16, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Elon Musk to get new office in the White House.
If you think that the USD (blue) is going to have a serious pullback, you must also think that US share of global GDP (red) is going to plummet, because the two are closely related.
January 14, 2025 at 4:58 AM
If you think that the USD (blue) is going to have a serious pullback, you must also think that US share of global GDP (red) is going to plummet, because the two are closely related.
Who’s the sidekick?
Via @davewhamond.bsky.social
Via @davewhamond.bsky.social
January 14, 2025 at 3:51 AM
Who’s the sidekick?
Via @davewhamond.bsky.social
Via @davewhamond.bsky.social
Reposted by Anil Vohra
Orange man will not like this.
January 13, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Orange man will not like this.
Unhappiness is the cornerstone of the MAGA movement
January 14, 2025 at 3:24 AM
Unhappiness is the cornerstone of the MAGA movement
The Sith Lord, Master of the dark side, cometh
January 14, 2025 at 3:22 AM
The Sith Lord, Master of the dark side, cometh
Number of people killed by animals per year:
Mosquito: 725,000
Human: 475,000
Snake: 50,000
Dog: 25,000
Assassin bug: 10,000
Snail: 10,000
Tapeworm: 2,000
Crocodile: 1,000
Hippopotamus: 500
Elephant: 100
Lion: 100
Wolf: 10
Shark: 10
Guess which one Trump is most worried about?
Yup, sharks!
Mosquito: 725,000
Human: 475,000
Snake: 50,000
Dog: 25,000
Assassin bug: 10,000
Snail: 10,000
Tapeworm: 2,000
Crocodile: 1,000
Hippopotamus: 500
Elephant: 100
Lion: 100
Wolf: 10
Shark: 10
Guess which one Trump is most worried about?
Yup, sharks!
January 13, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Number of people killed by animals per year:
Mosquito: 725,000
Human: 475,000
Snake: 50,000
Dog: 25,000
Assassin bug: 10,000
Snail: 10,000
Tapeworm: 2,000
Crocodile: 1,000
Hippopotamus: 500
Elephant: 100
Lion: 100
Wolf: 10
Shark: 10
Guess which one Trump is most worried about?
Yup, sharks!
Mosquito: 725,000
Human: 475,000
Snake: 50,000
Dog: 25,000
Assassin bug: 10,000
Snail: 10,000
Tapeworm: 2,000
Crocodile: 1,000
Hippopotamus: 500
Elephant: 100
Lion: 100
Wolf: 10
Shark: 10
Guess which one Trump is most worried about?
Yup, sharks!
Exports are the only thing holding up the Chinese economy from collapsing.
If anything were to happen to them, it’s game over.
via @Brad_Setser
If anything were to happen to them, it’s game over.
via @Brad_Setser
January 13, 2025 at 5:37 AM
Exports are the only thing holding up the Chinese economy from collapsing.
If anything were to happen to them, it’s game over.
via @Brad_Setser
If anything were to happen to them, it’s game over.
via @Brad_Setser
Musk/trump presidency
January 13, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Musk/trump presidency
Rising single population is a huge problem that has led to declining population which naturally leads to deflation, which kills economies.
Chart via FT
Chart via FT
January 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Rising single population is a huge problem that has led to declining population which naturally leads to deflation, which kills economies.
Chart via FT
Chart via FT
January 12, 2025 at 8:43 AM
10m vs 12m (or 43w vs 52w) sma is a classic LT timing measure for the market.
Problem with this tool is that it is very slow moving. However, before the lines cross they begin to converge. We can track that convergence. Note that it has turned from the most extended level in 30y. Trouble ahead.
Problem with this tool is that it is very slow moving. However, before the lines cross they begin to converge. We can track that convergence. Note that it has turned from the most extended level in 30y. Trouble ahead.
January 12, 2025 at 8:40 AM
10m vs 12m (or 43w vs 52w) sma is a classic LT timing measure for the market.
Problem with this tool is that it is very slow moving. However, before the lines cross they begin to converge. We can track that convergence. Note that it has turned from the most extended level in 30y. Trouble ahead.
Problem with this tool is that it is very slow moving. However, before the lines cross they begin to converge. We can track that convergence. Note that it has turned from the most extended level in 30y. Trouble ahead.
Does anyone know how to make private“Lists” on this platform?
January 12, 2025 at 5:26 AM
Does anyone know how to make private“Lists” on this platform?
Resolution 2025
I will post here more than the other place. It’s time to back my words with action.
I will post here more than the other place. It’s time to back my words with action.
January 12, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Resolution 2025
I will post here more than the other place. It’s time to back my words with action.
I will post here more than the other place. It’s time to back my words with action.
This was before JD got pushed out of the car. Rest is still true.
Via @mluckovichajc
Via @mluckovichajc
December 29, 2024 at 9:13 PM
This was before JD got pushed out of the car. Rest is still true.
Via @mluckovichajc
Via @mluckovichajc