Reducing Reverse Repo Balance at the Treasury adds liquidity to financial markets. Yellen has drawn it down to $95b leaving her successor with few tools to keep the market up.

via @bravosresearch

Hedge Funds have reduced their leverage at the fastest pace in more than 2.5 years

Via @barchart.com

Elon Musk to get new office in the White House.

If you think that the USD (blue) is going to have a serious pullback, you must also think that US share of global GDP (red) is going to plummet, because the two are closely related.

Who’s the sidekick?
Via @davewhamond.bsky.social

The Sith Lord, Master of the dark side, cometh

Exports are the only thing holding up the Chinese economy from collapsing.
If anything were to happen to them, it’s game over.

via @Brad_Setser

Musk/trump presidency

Rising single population is a huge problem that has led to declining population which naturally leads to deflation, which kills economies.

Chart via FT

10m vs 12m (or 43w vs 52w) sma is a classic LT timing measure for the market.

Problem with this tool is that it is very slow moving. However, before the lines cross they begin to converge. We can track that convergence. Note that it has turned from the most extended level in 30y. Trouble ahead.

This was before JD got pushed out of the car. Rest is still true.
Via @mluckovichajc

Yen Carry Trade
Higher US yields (UST 30Y yields in black) attract foreign funds from low yield currencies (USDJPY in pink).