Alex O. Diaz
@alexodiaz.bsky.social
Las Vegas Born | UNLV Grad | Political Analyst | NV Maps | Views Mine | Pro-Mexican Food | Anti-Sundown Sirens | Slavery Was Bad
Here is how I see the environment:
- Polls prior to bipartisan deal show low Democratic Approval among Democrats
- Mamdani becomes the first Socialist elected in NYC in 100 years
- People condemning incumbents for caving to Rs
I predict the 2026 Democratic primaries will have more challengers
- Polls prior to bipartisan deal show low Democratic Approval among Democrats
- Mamdani becomes the first Socialist elected in NYC in 100 years
- People condemning incumbents for caving to Rs
I predict the 2026 Democratic primaries will have more challengers
November 11, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Here is how I see the environment:
- Polls prior to bipartisan deal show low Democratic Approval among Democrats
- Mamdani becomes the first Socialist elected in NYC in 100 years
- People condemning incumbents for caving to Rs
I predict the 2026 Democratic primaries will have more challengers
- Polls prior to bipartisan deal show low Democratic Approval among Democrats
- Mamdani becomes the first Socialist elected in NYC in 100 years
- People condemning incumbents for caving to Rs
I predict the 2026 Democratic primaries will have more challengers
One mistake to make in political prognosis in a Post Mamdani environment is to assume nothing will change.
November 11, 2025 at 3:13 PM
One mistake to make in political prognosis in a Post Mamdani environment is to assume nothing will change.
I've observed on social media that the Democratic Activist Base is very angry.
The people who lead nonprofits, knock on doors, do phone banks. They now know that moderates let them down.
The average voter might not have a long memory, but these highly mobilized activists do. They help run the ops.
The people who lead nonprofits, knock on doors, do phone banks. They now know that moderates let them down.
The average voter might not have a long memory, but these highly mobilized activists do. They help run the ops.
November 11, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I've observed on social media that the Democratic Activist Base is very angry.
The people who lead nonprofits, knock on doors, do phone banks. They now know that moderates let them down.
The average voter might not have a long memory, but these highly mobilized activists do. They help run the ops.
The people who lead nonprofits, knock on doors, do phone banks. They now know that moderates let them down.
The average voter might not have a long memory, but these highly mobilized activists do. They help run the ops.
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
“Fair maps are the biggest threat to the constitution since Hitler” essentially the UTGOP
November 11, 2025 at 2:56 PM
“Fair maps are the biggest threat to the constitution since Hitler” essentially the UTGOP
The activist base, the groups of people who endorse candidates and knock on doors seem to much more angry than GOP aligned groups in the Obama era.
Certain Democratic Incumbents could find themselves with fewer endorsements and a challenger.
Certain Democratic Incumbents could find themselves with fewer endorsements and a challenger.
A bit of a contrarian view. Democrats likely won't pay a price for this in the midterms. The American memory is quite short on political machinations. But Republicans are about to learn a central tenet of American politics: You cannot give people a benefit and then take it away.
November 11, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The activist base, the groups of people who endorse candidates and knock on doors seem to much more angry than GOP aligned groups in the Obama era.
Certain Democratic Incumbents could find themselves with fewer endorsements and a challenger.
Certain Democratic Incumbents could find themselves with fewer endorsements and a challenger.
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
And it’s over a govt funding bill that coincidentally will ban THC drinks
I haven't seen millennials this mad at Chuck Schumer since he banned Four Loko
November 11, 2025 at 2:16 PM
And it’s over a govt funding bill that coincidentally will ban THC drinks
This was entirely predictable.
The Senate has rejected a plan from Sen. Tammy Baldwin D-WI to extend the expiring Obamacare health insurance subsidies for 1 year. Party line vote.
November 11, 2025 at 1:31 AM
This was entirely predictable.
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
In the most predictable development ever, Mike Johnson is not committing to hold a House vote on ACA subsidies
November 10, 2025 at 10:19 PM
In the most predictable development ever, Mike Johnson is not committing to hold a House vote on ACA subsidies
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
"Schumer voted against it, in the hope that his vote would conceal his fingerprints. He fooled no one."
Democrats Get Rolled by Their Own - The American Prospect
Coming out of last Tuesday’s election blowout, the Democrats were riding high and unified. But on Sunday night, centrist Senate Democrats, with Chuck Schumer’s tacit encouragement, voted to reopen the...
prospect.org
November 10, 2025 at 6:19 PM
"Schumer voted against it, in the hope that his vote would conceal his fingerprints. He fooled no one."
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
these are the dumbest people on earth.
Whoa -- Sen. Durbin went to up Leader Thune during the vote last night to tell him that on the shutdown vote and ACA promise that "8 of us are sticking our neck out that you're going to keep your word. I hope you will. He said 'I assure you I will,'" Durbin says just now
November 10, 2025 at 6:45 PM
these are the dumbest people on earth.
Already not looking good.
Trying to do back of the envelope math on who might be the Republicans who vote on extending subsidies. Democrats need 13 votes.
Likely yes:
Collins
Murkowski
Tillis
Rounds
Maybe:
Capito
Cassidy
Hawley
Likely yes:
Collins
Murkowski
Tillis
Rounds
Maybe:
Capito
Cassidy
Hawley
November 10, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Already not looking good.
He is going to get a primary challenge.
👀 Hakeem Jeffries defends Chuck Schumer, saying he "waged a valiant fight on behalf of the American people"
November 10, 2025 at 5:51 PM
He is going to get a primary challenge.
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
November 10, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
Trump is 30 points underwater. Dems swept the special elections. People know the GOP is responsible for the shutdown. So the Dem Senators pulled out their big guns... and shot themselves in the foot.
November 10, 2025 at 1:53 AM
Trump is 30 points underwater. Dems swept the special elections. People know the GOP is responsible for the shutdown. So the Dem Senators pulled out their big guns... and shot themselves in the foot.
Can anyone tell me what's the difference between these two?
November 10, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Can anyone tell me what's the difference between these two?
This is not what I'm seeing
The Democratic base is now seeing Democrats in the Senate as complicit in helping Republicans spike premiums
Its more like Senate Democrats have an albatross to carry in their primaries (even if they didn't vote yes on cloture)
Ive never seen the Dem base this angry
The Democratic base is now seeing Democrats in the Senate as complicit in helping Republicans spike premiums
Its more like Senate Democrats have an albatross to carry in their primaries (even if they didn't vote yes on cloture)
Ive never seen the Dem base this angry
“Democrats inarguably got at least one very important win: They have placed a glaring spotlight on Republicans’ refusal to renew the Obamacare healthcare subsidies, hanging the blame for spiking healthcare costs around their necks as the midterms draw near.”
www.thebulwark.com/p/dems-rewar...
www.thebulwark.com/p/dems-rewar...
Dems Reward the Hostage-Taker
Perhaps ending the shutdown was the responsible thing to do. But by caving, Democrats risk legitimizing Trump’s maximum-pain shutdown tactics.
www.thebulwark.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
This is not what I'm seeing
The Democratic base is now seeing Democrats in the Senate as complicit in helping Republicans spike premiums
Its more like Senate Democrats have an albatross to carry in their primaries (even if they didn't vote yes on cloture)
Ive never seen the Dem base this angry
The Democratic base is now seeing Democrats in the Senate as complicit in helping Republicans spike premiums
Its more like Senate Democrats have an albatross to carry in their primaries (even if they didn't vote yes on cloture)
Ive never seen the Dem base this angry
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
“Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is: never try.”
November 10, 2025 at 2:04 PM
“Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is: never try.”
Schumer definitely knew about this and orchestrated it.
Shaheen: "We kept Senator Schumer informed throughout bipartisan discussions that have really gone on since the beginning of the shutdown."
November 10, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Schumer definitely knew about this and orchestrated it.
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
let me just say Harry Reid would NEVER have allowed this
November 10, 2025 at 12:19 AM
let me just say Harry Reid would NEVER have allowed this
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
Last night, eight Democrats broke ranks and voted with Republicans to end the government shut down.
As a result, a “civil war” is breaking out in the Democratic Party, Jack Blanchard says.
Listen on #playbookpod: pod.link/1169056746/e...
As a result, a “civil war” is breaking out in the Democratic Party, Jack Blanchard says.
Listen on #playbookpod: pod.link/1169056746/e...
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Last night, eight Democrats broke ranks and voted with Republicans to end the government shut down.
As a result, a “civil war” is breaking out in the Democratic Party, Jack Blanchard says.
Listen on #playbookpod: pod.link/1169056746/e...
As a result, a “civil war” is breaking out in the Democratic Party, Jack Blanchard says.
Listen on #playbookpod: pod.link/1169056746/e...
Senate Democrats have the rhetoric of Neville Chamberlain on point.
November 10, 2025 at 4:13 AM
Senate Democrats have the rhetoric of Neville Chamberlain on point.
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
When you've lost *checks notes again* Chris Cillizza
November 10, 2025 at 3:15 AM
When you've lost *checks notes again* Chris Cillizza
Reposted by Alex O. Diaz
Even more true today: Democrats are ripe for a base revolt like the GOP in 2015 when Trump went down the escalator.
November 10, 2025 at 2:43 AM
Even more true today: Democrats are ripe for a base revolt like the GOP in 2015 when Trump went down the escalator.
Watch the Republicans tank the separate ACA bill.
This is the same party that denied Obama an opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court justice.
This is the same party that denied Obama an opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court justice.
King: So I believe that we are closer tonight to a vote on the ACA tax credits than we were this morning. This agreement tonight is a win for the American people.
November 10, 2025 at 2:43 AM
Watch the Republicans tank the separate ACA bill.
This is the same party that denied Obama an opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court justice.
This is the same party that denied Obama an opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court justice.
This is concrete evidence that Democratic leadership will likely primary the Gang of 8 Democrats who voted with Republicans to reopen the government without a major concession.
As this vote moves to the House, I stand with Democratic leadership as they refuse to rubber stamp the full-scale Republican assault on Americans’ health care and I am proud of the majority of Senate Democrats who opposed this vote.
November 10, 2025 at 2:22 AM
This is concrete evidence that Democratic leadership will likely primary the Gang of 8 Democrats who voted with Republicans to reopen the government without a major concession.