Jonathan Todd
@yontodd.bsky.social
📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (everything here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, formerly UWS/Boston/Nashville/LA, always very Californian.
ADP (finally) up:
"For the four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2025, private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week as employment losses slowed heading into November."
www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-i...
"For the four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2025, private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week as employment losses slowed heading into November."
www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-i...
Job growth is sluggish, but new hires are on the upswing. How? - ADP Research
Hiring has slowed from earlier in the year, so one would think that new hires—which we define as workers added to an employer payroll in the last three months—would be a shrinking share of the workfor...
www.adpresearch.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:37 PM
ADP (finally) up:
"For the four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2025, private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week as employment losses slowed heading into November."
www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-i...
"For the four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2025, private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week as employment losses slowed heading into November."
www.adpresearch.com/job-growth-i...
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
If you don't like 50-year mortgages, you should love 15-year mortgages!
November 14, 2025 at 11:09 PM
If you don't like 50-year mortgages, you should love 15-year mortgages!
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
From this minister's op-ed: "People wanting to experience God are more likely to meet the Divine trying to shut down the Broadview, Illinois, ICE facility than we ever were in church...God does not live in our houses of worship, but...with those who are bearing the brunt of cruelty in this moment."
Oh wow @reuters.com got the photo here:
November 14, 2025 at 9:38 PM
From this minister's op-ed: "People wanting to experience God are more likely to meet the Divine trying to shut down the Broadview, Illinois, ICE facility than we ever were in church...God does not live in our houses of worship, but...with those who are bearing the brunt of cruelty in this moment."
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
I’ve yet to see any of the writing about this settlement grapple with what strikes me as an obvious signal of how merchants’ newfound ability to reject premium Visas and Mastercards is gonna go: U.S. merchants could already opt to reject Amex cards, which are all high swipe fee, and they don’t.
The golden age of US credit card rewards may be at an end on.ft.com/4odwGo1 | opinion
The golden age of US credit card rewards may be at an end
Freebies, it turns out, were never really free
on.ft.com
November 13, 2025 at 6:30 PM
I’ve yet to see any of the writing about this settlement grapple with what strikes me as an obvious signal of how merchants’ newfound ability to reject premium Visas and Mastercards is gonna go: U.S. merchants could already opt to reject Amex cards, which are all high swipe fee, and they don’t.
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
November 12, 2025 at 6:04 PM
F1 team valuations moving like AI lab valuations - but with far superior fundamentals www.ft.com/content/c808...
November 11, 2025 at 6:50 PM
F1 team valuations moving like AI lab valuations - but with far superior fundamentals www.ft.com/content/c808...
My prediction is airlines are going to get harder than either merchants or consumers by the Visa/Mastercard settlement
www.wsj.com/personal-fin...
www.wsj.com/personal-fin...
November 11, 2025 at 2:56 PM
My prediction is airlines are going to get harder than either merchants or consumers by the Visa/Mastercard settlement
www.wsj.com/personal-fin...
www.wsj.com/personal-fin...
If your goal was actually housing affordability, you'd push a 15Y mortgage and definitely not a 50Y year mortgage. A 50Y mortgage is a subsidy to existing homeowners who could sell at inflated prices and lenders/mortgage investors
www.marketwatch.com/story/how-th...
www.marketwatch.com/story/how-th...
How the math would work on a 50-year mortgage that Trump envisions
The key question, beyond the logistics of actually introducing such a product, is how much of a benefit in terms of affordability would it provide.
www.marketwatch.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:01 PM
If your goal was actually housing affordability, you'd push a 15Y mortgage and definitely not a 50Y year mortgage. A 50Y mortgage is a subsidy to existing homeowners who could sell at inflated prices and lenders/mortgage investors
www.marketwatch.com/story/how-th...
www.marketwatch.com/story/how-th...
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
“.. During the call, which took place with a Block Club reporter present, the anonymous representative told a group of faith leaders and activists that ‘There is no more prayer in front of building or inside the building ..’”
@blockclubchi.bsky.social #chicago
blockclubchicago.org/2025/11/07/f...
@blockclubchi.bsky.social #chicago
blockclubchicago.org/2025/11/07/f...
November 10, 2025 at 1:05 AM
“.. During the call, which took place with a Block Club reporter present, the anonymous representative told a group of faith leaders and activists that ‘There is no more prayer in front of building or inside the building ..’”
@blockclubchi.bsky.social #chicago
blockclubchicago.org/2025/11/07/f...
@blockclubchi.bsky.social #chicago
blockclubchicago.org/2025/11/07/f...
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
This is basically why I find myself massively rooting for Mamdani despite still having a fair bit of scepticism about his specific policy ideas
It shouldn’t be forgotten that a big piece of Mamdani’s campaign was simply “cities are cool and lots of people enjoy living in them” which in and of itself dismantles alot of rightwing talking points
November 7, 2025 at 3:10 PM
This is basically why I find myself massively rooting for Mamdani despite still having a fair bit of scepticism about his specific policy ideas
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Ellis also finds that the feds' use of force in Chicago "shocks the conscience."
November 6, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Ellis also finds that the feds' use of force in Chicago "shocks the conscience."
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
VOLATILE STOCKS BEHAVING BADLY
The one-month realized vol of non profitable tech and high beta momentum stocks is mooning to levels last seen post Rose Garden tariff announcements sherwood.news/markets/vola...
The one-month realized vol of non profitable tech and high beta momentum stocks is mooning to levels last seen post Rose Garden tariff announcements sherwood.news/markets/vola...
November 6, 2025 at 5:16 PM
VOLATILE STOCKS BEHAVING BADLY
The one-month realized vol of non profitable tech and high beta momentum stocks is mooning to levels last seen post Rose Garden tariff announcements sherwood.news/markets/vola...
The one-month realized vol of non profitable tech and high beta momentum stocks is mooning to levels last seen post Rose Garden tariff announcements sherwood.news/markets/vola...
David Sacks said no AI bailouts - but he didn't say no equity stakes [finger tapping head gif]
November 6, 2025 at 5:04 PM
David Sacks said no AI bailouts - but he didn't say no equity stakes [finger tapping head gif]
You know, the FIFA Prize in Economics isn't actually a FIFA prize
November 5, 2025 at 8:48 PM
You know, the FIFA Prize in Economics isn't actually a FIFA prize
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
FYI in Chicago. After a few weeks of this, many consumers are staying home. American citizens or not. It will have an impact on the economy at some point. Restaurants seeing slowing sales as of October.
ICE/CBP is active in Lincoln Park right now, has been spotted near Damen/Clybourn at Costco + Jewel (this is in addition to a morning abduction reported at Costco earlier).
People believe grocery delivery drivers are being targeted and are asking folks to alert other vulnerable workers as well.
People believe grocery delivery drivers are being targeted and are asking folks to alert other vulnerable workers as well.
November 4, 2025 at 10:45 PM
FYI in Chicago. After a few weeks of this, many consumers are staying home. American citizens or not. It will have an impact on the economy at some point. Restaurants seeing slowing sales as of October.
This NCAA conference expansion has gone too far
November 4, 2025 at 2:54 PM
This NCAA conference expansion has gone too far
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Three of the 12 most pivotal plays in baseball history by cWPA occurred last night
November 2, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Three of the 12 most pivotal plays in baseball history by cWPA occurred last night
October 31, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
My story on what is happening in Chicago - Tear gas and Halloween costumes in America’s third largest city
www.economist.com/united-state...
www.economist.com/united-state...
Tear gas and Halloween costumes in America’s third largest city
Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago is out of hand
www.economist.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:14 PM
My story on what is happening in Chicago - Tear gas and Halloween costumes in America’s third largest city
www.economist.com/united-state...
www.economist.com/united-state...
"he was able to get Gloo’s newest LLM, which has not yet been publicly launched, to provide him a recipe for methamphetamine through a prompt injection."
At a fundamental level, we have to accept much of silicon valley has gone insane.
An ex-Intel CEO’s mission to build a Christian AI: ‘hasten the coming of Christ’s return’
Patrick Gelsinger, executive chairman of Gloo, has made it his mission to advance Christian principles in Silicon Valley
www.theguardian.com
October 28, 2025 at 3:14 PM
"he was able to get Gloo’s newest LLM, which has not yet been publicly launched, to provide him a recipe for methamphetamine through a prompt injection."
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
If the stuff happening in Chicago were happening in New York City it would be on every television on earth right now
October 24, 2025 at 10:14 PM
If the stuff happening in Chicago were happening in New York City it would be on every television on earth right now
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
The widespread normalization of gambling — aided by legalization and turbocharged by elite sanction — is very clearly a moral rot that is already having devastating consequences on American society and will get worse www.goodmorningamerica.com/video/126789...
NBA head coach charged in illegal poker operation
Heat guard Terry Rozier was arrested in a separate but related betting case.
www.goodmorningamerica.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:47 PM
The widespread normalization of gambling — aided by legalization and turbocharged by elite sanction — is very clearly a moral rot that is already having devastating consequences on American society and will get worse www.goodmorningamerica.com/video/126789...
This Martin Wolf column offering some quantifying evidence that populism in all forms is economically corrosive... excellent work.
October 22, 2025 at 3:54 PM
This Martin Wolf column offering some quantifying evidence that populism in all forms is economically corrosive... excellent work.