Jonathan Todd
@yontodd.bsky.social
📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing @ StreetAccount (though everything here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, formerly UWS/Boston/Nashville/LA, always very Californian.
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
MORGAN STANLEY’s Adam Jonas has found a useful case for Musk’s Boring Company: digging on Mars. 🤡
January 14, 2026 at 1:12 PM
MORGAN STANLEY’s Adam Jonas has found a useful case for Musk’s Boring Company: digging on Mars. 🤡
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
"...If subprime consumers lose credit access, they would likely need to limit discretionary spend or use more expensive credit forms. Negative effects could be much larger than the benefit from lower payments." - Morgan Stanley
January 13, 2026 at 2:17 PM
"...If subprime consumers lose credit access, they would likely need to limit discretionary spend or use more expensive credit forms. Negative effects could be much larger than the benefit from lower payments." - Morgan Stanley
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Former Fed chairs and Treasury secretaries put out a statement on Monday defending Powell after the Justice Department opened up a criminal investigation of the chair, likening the move to what happens in emerging markets jointstatement.substack.com/p/statement-...
January 12, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Former Fed chairs and Treasury secretaries put out a statement on Monday defending Powell after the Justice Department opened up a criminal investigation of the chair, likening the move to what happens in emerging markets jointstatement.substack.com/p/statement-...
fwiw gold futures +2.3% to a record $4600+
January 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM
fwiw gold futures +2.3% to a record $4600+
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
This is going to force a lot of investors and powerful finance people to reckon with Trump in a way they have been desperately trying to avoid.
January 12, 2026 at 12:41 AM
This is going to force a lot of investors and powerful finance people to reckon with Trump in a way they have been desperately trying to avoid.
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
In a video on Sunday, Powell defends himself and questions the investigation's motives:
"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."
"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."
NEW: Federal prosecutors have opened up a criminal investigation into Fed chair Powell over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u... @nytimes.com
Federal Prosecutors Are Said to Have Opened Inquiry Into Fed Chair Powell
www.nytimes.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:32 AM
In a video on Sunday, Powell defends himself and questions the investigation's motives:
"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."
"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
YouTube video by Federal Reserve
www.youtube.com
January 12, 2026 at 12:35 AM
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
fwiw spot gold +1.0%
This is 1) obvious pretext and nonsense 2) almost irrelevant at this point, he’s gone in a few months 3) possibly in response to them worrying he won’t leave the BoG
*US PROSECUTORS OPEN PROBE INTO FED'S POWELL ON HQ REVAMP: NYT
*US PROSECUTORS OPEN PROBE INTO FED'S POWELL ON HQ REVAMP: NYT
January 12, 2026 at 12:14 AM
fwiw spot gold +1.0%
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
This is 1) obvious pretext and nonsense 2) almost irrelevant at this point, he’s gone in a few months 3) possibly in response to them worrying he won’t leave the BoG
*US PROSECUTORS OPEN PROBE INTO FED'S POWELL ON HQ REVAMP: NYT
*US PROSECUTORS OPEN PROBE INTO FED'S POWELL ON HQ REVAMP: NYT
January 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM
This is 1) obvious pretext and nonsense 2) almost irrelevant at this point, he’s gone in a few months 3) possibly in response to them worrying he won’t leave the BoG
*US PROSECUTORS OPEN PROBE INTO FED'S POWELL ON HQ REVAMP: NYT
*US PROSECUTORS OPEN PROBE INTO FED'S POWELL ON HQ REVAMP: NYT
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
GOLDMAN: “.. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler YoY capex growth slowing from 75% in 3Q to 54% in 4Q and to 24% by the end of 2026. We expect AI spending will exceed consensus estimates again this quarter, but agree that a deceleration in the pace of AI capex growth is likely in 2026.”
January 11, 2026 at 1:07 PM
GOLDMAN: “.. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler YoY capex growth slowing from 75% in 3Q to 54% in 4Q and to 24% by the end of 2026. We expect AI spending will exceed consensus estimates again this quarter, but agree that a deceleration in the pace of AI capex growth is likely in 2026.”
I'm legitimately not going to discount this reporting as of now. Daily Mail even has some other related articles that help support the claims...
www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/...
www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/...
January 11, 2026 at 1:07 PM
I'm legitimately not going to discount this reporting as of now. Daily Mail even has some other related articles that help support the claims...
www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/...
www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/...
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
If you think he's going to play nicely in markets/finance then I love that for you. Adorable.
My thing this weekend:
What is to stop Trump upending the rules in global finance too? - as.ft.com/r/53e52459-8...
My thing this weekend:
What is to stop Trump upending the rules in global finance too? - as.ft.com/r/53e52459-8...
What is to stop Trump upending the rules in global finance too?
[FREE TO READ] Action against Venezuela and sabre-rattling towards Greenland point to risks in US president’s approach to the Fed
as.ft.com
January 11, 2026 at 12:22 PM
If you think he's going to play nicely in markets/finance then I love that for you. Adorable.
My thing this weekend:
What is to stop Trump upending the rules in global finance too? - as.ft.com/r/53e52459-8...
My thing this weekend:
What is to stop Trump upending the rules in global finance too? - as.ft.com/r/53e52459-8...
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
If you can’t understand the sentence “Although statistical evidence suggests otherwise, these unfortunate events are happening more often” then you can’t understand today’s politics. (I am definitely in the “this breaks my brain so don’t look to me” camp.)
“Although statistical evidence suggests otherwise, these unfortunate events are happening more often,” is truly one of the funniest things to come from the slug colony in this man’s head.
January 10, 2026 at 10:21 PM
If you can’t understand the sentence “Although statistical evidence suggests otherwise, these unfortunate events are happening more often” then you can’t understand today’s politics. (I am definitely in the “this breaks my brain so don’t look to me” camp.)
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
A week in LiBeRtArIaNisM, via @robarmstrong.bsky.social
January 10, 2026 at 6:04 PM
A week in LiBeRtArIaNisM, via @robarmstrong.bsky.social
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
WSJ investigation: In the past 6 months ICE agents have fired at vehicles 13 times, leading to:
* 8 people shot
* 5 of which were U.S. citizens
* 2 died
* no victims drew a weapon
The playbook: Agents box in a vehicle, block attempts to flee, then fire
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
* 8 people shot
* 5 of which were U.S. citizens
* 2 died
* no victims drew a weapon
The playbook: Agents box in a vehicle, block attempts to flee, then fire
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
Videos Show How ICE Vehicle Stops Can Escalate to Shootings
A WSJ visual investigation found that the Minneapolis ICE killing is one of 13 incidents where federal immigration agents have used deadly force against civilians in vehicles since July.
www.wsj.com
January 10, 2026 at 3:44 PM
WSJ investigation: In the past 6 months ICE agents have fired at vehicles 13 times, leading to:
* 8 people shot
* 5 of which were U.S. citizens
* 2 died
* no victims drew a weapon
The playbook: Agents box in a vehicle, block attempts to flee, then fire
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
* 8 people shot
* 5 of which were U.S. citizens
* 2 died
* no victims drew a weapon
The playbook: Agents box in a vehicle, block attempts to flee, then fire
www.wsj.com/us-news/vide...
For your CPI models, Veuve got a price cut at Costco, down from $59 to $54
January 10, 2026 at 4:43 PM
For your CPI models, Veuve got a price cut at Costco, down from $59 to $54
Ok and shareholders?
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Trump’s Team Orders Big Oil Into Venezuela: ‘Do It for Our Country’
Energy bosses see long haul ahead, but worry they’ll get railroaded into promising a quick fix
www.bloomberg.com
January 8, 2026 at 10:57 PM
Ok and shareholders?
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Trump's posting claiming he'll raid GSE cash to buy $200 billion in mortgages, if implemented and if legal, is akin to the Fed engaging in another round of quantitative easing. For reference, Fed currently owns about $2T in MBS. NY Fed data said total mortgage borrowing is just over $13 trillion.
January 8, 2026 at 9:42 PM
Trump's posting claiming he'll raid GSE cash to buy $200 billion in mortgages, if implemented and if legal, is akin to the Fed engaging in another round of quantitative easing. For reference, Fed currently owns about $2T in MBS. NY Fed data said total mortgage borrowing is just over $13 trillion.
Why we all should be reading BoJ opinions and watching Japanese wage negotiations a little bit closer substack.com/@yontodd/not...
Mr. Ueda's policies go to Washington
Japan is the country to watch in 2026 - because it might be setting the template for the US in the years ahead
substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 9:15 PM
Why we all should be reading BoJ opinions and watching Japanese wage negotiations a little bit closer substack.com/@yontodd/not...
Venezuela's Orinco breakeven was $49.26 a barrel in 2020, so it's almost certainly higher now
Not to mention that's a higher level than other production sites the oil majors already have
about.bnef.com/insights/com...
Not to mention that's a higher level than other production sites the oil majors already have
about.bnef.com/insights/com...
January 8, 2026 at 1:09 PM
Venezuela's Orinco breakeven was $49.26 a barrel in 2020, so it's almost certainly higher now
Not to mention that's a higher level than other production sites the oil majors already have
about.bnef.com/insights/com...
Not to mention that's a higher level than other production sites the oil majors already have
about.bnef.com/insights/com...
What LeBron continues to do is the most impressive athletic feat of my lifetime and I don't think it's particularly close.
LeBron James is averaging 21.7 points per game at age 41 !!!
Insane
Insane
January 7, 2026 at 2:48 PM
What LeBron continues to do is the most impressive athletic feat of my lifetime and I don't think it's particularly close.
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
the people who run prediction markets are not serious people
maybe it’s my fault for being curious, but every part of this email is unhinged
January 6, 2026 at 4:36 PM
the people who run prediction markets are not serious people
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
WH sources say Venezuela's opposition leader committed the "ultimate sin": She accepted the Nobel Peace prize.
“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” one said.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” one said.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
January 5, 2026 at 3:02 AM
WH sources say Venezuela's opposition leader committed the "ultimate sin": She accepted the Nobel Peace prize.
“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” one said.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” one said.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
A+ no context headline
Edible Garden to Start Shipping Pulp and Pickle Party to Western Beef
Edible Garden to Start Shipping Pulp and Pickle Party to Western Beef
December 24, 2025 at 12:58 PM
A+ no context headline
Edible Garden to Start Shipping Pulp and Pickle Party to Western Beef
Edible Garden to Start Shipping Pulp and Pickle Party to Western Beef
Reposted by Jonathan Todd
watching my favorite christmas movie and what is possibly the great american comedy about class and race
December 24, 2025 at 12:18 AM
watching my favorite christmas movie and what is possibly the great american comedy about class and race