Philip Wiegand
@wxphil.bsky.social
Geospatial Scientist. Atmospheric Science, Physics, & GIS. UMD ‘24 Alum. Interested in weather/climate linkages on interdecadal timescales. Also enjoy philosophy, the great outdoors, chess/strategy games, and other random stuff.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
The stars are aligning on a seasonal and subseasonal scale for this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season to be pretty underwhelming compared to normal thru early-mid Sep ish, while also finishing quite strong late Sep into Oct.
Current SSTa pattern, MJO/S2S variability, & analogs all support this.
Current SSTa pattern, MJO/S2S variability, & analogs all support this.
July 21, 2025 at 12:39 AM
The stars are aligning on a seasonal and subseasonal scale for this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season to be pretty underwhelming compared to normal thru early-mid Sep ish, while also finishing quite strong late Sep into Oct.
Current SSTa pattern, MJO/S2S variability, & analogs all support this.
Current SSTa pattern, MJO/S2S variability, & analogs all support this.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
I updated the PolarWx model forecasts vs. ERA5 records map to include 2024 in the ERA5 record period (1950-2024, previous maps' period of record was 1950-2023).
The upcoming East US ridge will set near-record annual maximum geopotential heights... the previous record was set in June of last year.
The upcoming East US ridge will set near-record annual maximum geopotential heights... the previous record was set in June of last year.
June 20, 2025 at 9:32 PM
I updated the PolarWx model forecasts vs. ERA5 records map to include 2024 in the ERA5 record period (1950-2024, previous maps' period of record was 1950-2023).
The upcoming East US ridge will set near-record annual maximum geopotential heights... the previous record was set in June of last year.
The upcoming East US ridge will set near-record annual maximum geopotential heights... the previous record was set in June of last year.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex during December 2024, as measured by the zonal wind at 10 hPa & 60°N, was the third strongest on record for the month since 1979, marginally behind 2015 & 1980, and similar to 2013, per NASA GEOS/MERRA-2 analyses.
ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/...
ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/...
January 7, 2025 at 10:12 PM
The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex during December 2024, as measured by the zonal wind at 10 hPa & 60°N, was the third strongest on record for the month since 1979, marginally behind 2015 & 1980, and similar to 2013, per NASA GEOS/MERRA-2 analyses.
ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/...
ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/...
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
(1/2) After its weakest Sept wind speeds since 1979, the Arctic stratospheric #polarvortex is making up for lost time and looks to rapidly intensify into early December.
November 25, 2024 at 11:21 PM
(1/2) After its weakest Sept wind speeds since 1979, the Arctic stratospheric #polarvortex is making up for lost time and looks to rapidly intensify into early December.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
This image will be in the NASA calendar for 2025. One of the most detailed red sprites I have captured. Plasma physics is both beautiful and wild. Available as a print on my website for those who'd like to support my work
November 22, 2024 at 11:48 PM
This image will be in the NASA calendar for 2025. One of the most detailed red sprites I have captured. Plasma physics is both beautiful and wild. Available as a print on my website for those who'd like to support my work
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
Land, mountains and tracks of storms are revealed from maximum wind gust speed over a 44 year-long atmosphere simulation at 9km resolution done at @ECMWF for @EERIE_Project #EERIE
#30daymapchallenge
#30daymapchallenge
November 14, 2024 at 12:10 PM
Land, mountains and tracks of storms are revealed from maximum wind gust speed over a 44 year-long atmosphere simulation at 9km resolution done at @ECMWF for @EERIE_Project #EERIE
#30daymapchallenge
#30daymapchallenge
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
Oh wow, I see the OMI MJO index has been extended back to 1940 using ERA-5 👀
www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex...
www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex...
www.psl.noaa.gov
September 20, 2024 at 2:45 PM
Oh wow, I see the OMI MJO index has been extended back to 1940 using ERA-5 👀
www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex...
www.psl.noaa.gov/mjo/mjoindex...
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
How well can global ensemble forecasts predict #TropicalCyclones in the SW Indian Ocean? How have forecasts improved? How does the MJO affect cyclones and their forecasts? 🌀
We evaluated 10 years of forecasts from ECMWF & UK Met Office to find out: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
We evaluated 10 years of forecasts from ECMWF & UK Met Office to find out: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
How well can global ensemble forecasts predict tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean?
The southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) recently experienced its most active, costliest and deadliest cyclone season on record. The anticipation and forecasting of tropical cyclones are crucial to preparin....
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
May 6, 2024 at 5:13 PM
How well can global ensemble forecasts predict #TropicalCyclones in the SW Indian Ocean? How have forecasts improved? How does the MJO affect cyclones and their forecasts? 🌀
We evaluated 10 years of forecasts from ECMWF & UK Met Office to find out: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
We evaluated 10 years of forecasts from ECMWF & UK Met Office to find out: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
The eastern Mediterranean heating and the tendency for the East Asian monsoon to break down and spread into IO/west Pac modes can both support the wave sourcing you need over Eurasia to initiate the +CGT pattern.
June 12, 2024 at 1:51 PM
The eastern Mediterranean heating and the tendency for the East Asian monsoon to break down and spread into IO/west Pac modes can both support the wave sourcing you need over Eurasia to initiate the +CGT pattern.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
So yeah, without getting too hype (is that even possible on Bluesky? lol) I would say this is the most threatening summer we've had in a while for the Midwest to Northeast heat dome. And the background spatial SSTa and pattern are also supportive.
June 12, 2024 at 1:57 PM
So yeah, without getting too hype (is that even possible on Bluesky? lol) I would say this is the most threatening summer we've had in a while for the Midwest to Northeast heat dome. And the background spatial SSTa and pattern are also supportive.
Skies cleared around ~ 1AM, and holy shieeet. Absolutely breathtaking..I might’ve shed a tear or two.
May 11, 2024 at 9:51 AM
Skies cleared around ~ 1AM, and holy shieeet. Absolutely breathtaking..I might’ve shed a tear or two.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
It's so beautiful, I might cry.
I have been waiting SO LONG for this to be national, and now it has!
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk
I have been waiting SO LONG for this to be national, and now it has!
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk
April 22, 2024 at 9:05 PM
It's so beautiful, I might cry.
I have been waiting SO LONG for this to be national, and now it has!
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk
I have been waiting SO LONG for this to be national, and now it has!
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
Check out the latest Polar Vortex Blog post on reasons why the minor #SSW wasn't able to quite make it to major status... and chances of that changing in the next couple of weeks! www.climate.gov/news-feature...
Cooking up a stratospheric polar vortex disruption
Recent atmospheric patterns don't match those that typically precede a sudden stratospheric warming event. But forecasts do suggest the polar vortex might get stretched out of shape in coming weeks.
www.climate.gov
January 8, 2024 at 9:31 PM
Check out the latest Polar Vortex Blog post on reasons why the minor #SSW wasn't able to quite make it to major status... and chances of that changing in the next couple of weeks! www.climate.gov/news-feature...
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
WPC's Probabilistic WSSI (WSSI-P) went operational today!
Link to the webpage: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/pro...
Link to the user guide: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/WSS...
Shout out to Dr. Josh Kastman & Dr. Dana Tobin for the development of this product.
Link to the webpage: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/pro...
Link to the user guide: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/WSS...
Shout out to Dr. Josh Kastman & Dr. Dana Tobin for the development of this product.
December 15, 2023 at 10:49 PM
WPC's Probabilistic WSSI (WSSI-P) went operational today!
Link to the webpage: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/pro...
Link to the user guide: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/WSS...
Shout out to Dr. Josh Kastman & Dr. Dana Tobin for the development of this product.
Link to the webpage: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/pro...
Link to the user guide: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/WSS...
Shout out to Dr. Josh Kastman & Dr. Dana Tobin for the development of this product.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
The "jet extension" is not unusual (counter to all the hyperbole out there about it), and its behavior is not entirely based on the descending East Asian High either. The diabatic response from the Niño forcing/structure and the subtropical wave train are also adding momentum to the jet, too.
December 14, 2023 at 2:29 PM
The "jet extension" is not unusual (counter to all the hyperbole out there about it), and its behavior is not entirely based on the descending East Asian High either. The diabatic response from the Niño forcing/structure and the subtropical wave train are also adding momentum to the jet, too.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
GEFS & ECMWF subseasonal forecasts now very confident in a notably weakened polar vortex by early January, with a substantial risk of a major sudden stratospheric warming. Even if a major SSW does not occur, such a weakened vortex would likely have some tropospheric effects.
December 12, 2023 at 1:33 PM
GEFS & ECMWF subseasonal forecasts now very confident in a notably weakened polar vortex by early January, with a substantial risk of a major sudden stratospheric warming. Even if a major SSW does not occur, such a weakened vortex would likely have some tropospheric effects.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
You don't get a classic gill-response like this often in the tropics like what we're seeing around Dec-8th. It's a thing of beauty to see theoretical tropical meteorology pop up in the real-world.
December 4, 2023 at 5:30 PM
You don't get a classic gill-response like this often in the tropics like what we're seeing around Dec-8th. It's a thing of beauty to see theoretical tropical meteorology pop up in the real-world.
Reposted by Philip Wiegand
Keep a level-head going forward as we get inundated with promises of a big pattern change, severe Arctic cold, etc. The grift is simple: forecast extreme cold all the time so that when it does happen to occur, the forecaster basks in the accolades.
December 2, 2023 at 6:30 PM
Keep a level-head going forward as we get inundated with promises of a big pattern change, severe Arctic cold, etc. The grift is simple: forecast extreme cold all the time so that when it does happen to occur, the forecaster basks in the accolades.
This is one of the more impressive +IOD signatures I can recall in terms of U850. All components in the system state working in unison to evacuate heat/mass from MC/IPWP domain.
October 25, 2023 at 10:41 PM
This is one of the more impressive +IOD signatures I can recall in terms of U850. All components in the system state working in unison to evacuate heat/mass from MC/IPWP domain.