Peter Mullinax
@wxmvpete.bsky.social
Meteorologist at NOAA's Weather Predicition Center. Proud father & husband. Northern VA raised, DC sports fan. My thoughts & opinions are my own.
An exceptional winter storm that has the Carolinas, eastern TN, and northeast GA in its sights will produce a swath of heavy snow, including potential blizzard conditions along the NC coast this weekend.
January 30, 2026 at 11:48 AM
An exceptional winter storm that has the Carolinas, eastern TN, and northeast GA in its sights will produce a swath of heavy snow, including potential blizzard conditions along the NC coast this weekend.
A major winter storm is set to produce heavy snow, whiteout conditions, and potentially blizzard conditions in parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Impacts stretch as far south as Atlanta & even Savannah. You can read the WPC discussion here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
January 29, 2026 at 8:21 PM
A major winter storm is set to produce heavy snow, whiteout conditions, and potentially blizzard conditions in parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Impacts stretch as far south as Atlanta & even Savannah. You can read the WPC discussion here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
The latest Key Messages continue to identify the Carolinas & Southesst VA as facing the worst impacts. Unlike the last winter storm, high winds & blowing snow are a bigger concern, especially along the coasts.
January 29, 2026 at 9:58 AM
The latest Key Messages continue to identify the Carolinas & Southesst VA as facing the worst impacts. Unlike the last winter storm, high winds & blowing snow are a bigger concern, especially along the coasts.
Good morning! Key Messages have begun for the eastern U.S. winter storm.
January 28, 2026 at 10:27 AM
Good morning! Key Messages have begun for the eastern U.S. winter storm.
I left last week to the start of one winter storm, to coming back from my weekend off to another. I try to dive into some of the scenarios & why this weekend forecast is far from a lock: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
January 27, 2026 at 8:17 PM
I left last week to the start of one winter storm, to coming back from my weekend off to another. I try to dive into some of the scenarios & why this weekend forecast is far from a lock: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
Regarding the East Coast winter storm threat-- 06Z EC-AIFS ensembles still show high spread in a few areas: 1. The shortwave trough placement/amplitude/tilt as it track off the East Coast, 2. suppression feature south of Nova Scotia, 3. trailing shortwave in Central Plains.
January 27, 2026 at 1:40 PM
Regarding the East Coast winter storm threat-- 06Z EC-AIFS ensembles still show high spread in a few areas: 1. The shortwave trough placement/amplitude/tilt as it track off the East Coast, 2. suppression feature south of Nova Scotia, 3. trailing shortwave in Central Plains.
Latest WPC post: "Here is the latest information regarding a potentially significant coastal storm this weekend. Chances have increased for impactful snow and/or wind along the immediate East Coast, but uncertainty remains rather high with respect to details. Be sure to keep checking for updates!"
January 27, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Latest WPC post: "Here is the latest information regarding a potentially significant coastal storm this weekend. Chances have increased for impactful snow and/or wind along the immediate East Coast, but uncertainty remains rather high with respect to details. Be sure to keep checking for updates!"
12Z Dulles, VA sounding eqrlier this morning. Got family nearby that under 1 hour later were reporting sleet. The warm nose in the 700-750mb layer is the culprit.
January 25, 2026 at 2:22 PM
12Z Dulles, VA sounding eqrlier this morning. Got family nearby that under 1 hour later were reporting sleet. The warm nose in the 700-750mb layer is the culprit.
"What does a classic freezing rain sounding look like?"
Exhibit A--
Exhibit A--
January 25, 2026 at 3:08 AM
"What does a classic freezing rain sounding look like?"
Exhibit A--
Exhibit A--
Probably one of the busiest weeks of my career. A big thank you to everyone who collaborated with us this week. A thank you to all those who will be in their NWS offices working this event over the weekend. Lastly, thanks to our team at WPC for their hard work this week. Be safe everyone!
Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.
January 24, 2026 at 12:34 AM
Probably one of the busiest weeks of my career. A big thank you to everyone who collaborated with us this week. A thank you to all those who will be in their NWS offices working this event over the weekend. Lastly, thanks to our team at WPC for their hard work this week. Be safe everyone!
Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.
January 23, 2026 at 9:09 PM
Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.
My "Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion" for the impending winter storm just got posted: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
WPC's Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
January 23, 2026 at 9:07 PM
My "Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion" for the impending winter storm just got posted: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
Here's the updated Key Messages from this afternoon, now highlighting the potential for locally catastrophic ice accumulations. The snow and ice is going nowhere any time soon in the east. In fact, some guidance shows much of the Northeast may struggle to get above freezing before the end of January
January 22, 2026 at 11:04 PM
Here's the updated Key Messages from this afternoon, now highlighting the potential for locally catastrophic ice accumulations. The snow and ice is going nowhere any time soon in the east. In fact, some guidance shows much of the Northeast may struggle to get above freezing before the end of January
For those in the NYC market-- I will be interviewed on Fox 5 at 7:15PM about the impending winter storm.
January 22, 2026 at 8:55 PM
For those in the NYC market-- I will be interviewed on Fox 5 at 7:15PM about the impending winter storm.
As Euro ensembles gradually come into better agreement on their swath of heaviest snow, the Euro EFI becomes very useful. It tells us how unusual & extreme a specific weather variable can be based on thousands of reforecasts over a 5-week period centered on that day.
January 22, 2026 at 2:08 PM
As Euro ensembles gradually come into better agreement on their swath of heaviest snow, the Euro EFI becomes very useful. It tells us how unusual & extreme a specific weather variable can be based on thousands of reforecasts over a 5-week period centered on that day.
Good morning! Here are the newest Key Messages posted this morning.
January 22, 2026 at 11:04 AM
Good morning! Here are the newest Key Messages posted this morning.
WSO probabilities for snowfall totals exceeding each forecast office's warning criteria are at least 50% from central New Mexico to Long Island. That is one large >80% area from central KY to The Jersey Shore too. Snow will fall, lots of snow, over a large swath of the country.
January 22, 2026 at 2:46 AM
WSO probabilities for snowfall totals exceeding each forecast office's warning criteria are at least 50% from central New Mexico to Long Island. That is one large >80% area from central KY to The Jersey Shore too. Snow will fall, lots of snow, over a large swath of the country.
Here were the latest WPC Key Messages regarding the impending winter storm and extreme cold. Each time I post these, the probabilities for Moderate Impacts keep going up.
January 22, 2026 at 2:37 AM
Here were the latest WPC Key Messages regarding the impending winter storm and extreme cold. Each time I post these, the probabilities for Moderate Impacts keep going up.
For the Northeast, there remains notable spread in the deepening shortwave in the Midwest & the southwest trough for Sunday. Plus lingering uncertainty in the strength/position of the confluent flow over the Northeast. Placement of the heaviest snow/ice, p-type, & timing are still subject to change.
January 21, 2026 at 2:21 AM
For the Northeast, there remains notable spread in the deepening shortwave in the Midwest & the southwest trough for Sunday. Plus lingering uncertainty in the strength/position of the confluent flow over the Northeast. Placement of the heaviest snow/ice, p-type, & timing are still subject to change.
Here are the latest Key Messages for the impending winter storm and the dangerous cold.
January 20, 2026 at 9:25 PM
Here are the latest Key Messages for the impending winter storm and the dangerous cold.
Good morning! Here were the latest Key Messages issued eqrly this morning. Increasing area of at least 50% chances for Moderate Impacts (hazardous travel & to some infrastructure) from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic & Carolinas.
January 20, 2026 at 10:55 AM
Good morning! Here were the latest Key Messages issued eqrly this morning. Increasing area of at least 50% chances for Moderate Impacts (hazardous travel & to some infrastructure) from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic & Carolinas.
We initiated Key Messages for the impending winter storm late week and the extreme cold. Here they are--
January 19, 2026 at 10:59 PM
We initiated Key Messages for the impending winter storm late week and the extreme cold. Here they are--
It is going to be quite the 5 days on shift at WPC.
January 19, 2026 at 11:02 AM
It is going to be quite the 5 days on shift at WPC.
Decided to do a preview for next week's winter storm potential (not just Northeast, just the setup). Season-to-date, a strong 500mb ridge over the Four Corners & southern High Plains has effectively killed Gulf moisture, illustrated by the northerly 850mb meridional flow anomalies.
January 16, 2026 at 2:41 AM
Decided to do a preview for next week's winter storm potential (not just Northeast, just the setup). Season-to-date, a strong 500mb ridge over the Four Corners & southern High Plains has effectively killed Gulf moisture, illustrated by the northerly 850mb meridional flow anomalies.
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
The National Weather Service will host an onsite hiring event at the upcoming AMS Student Conference in Houston
January 15, 2026 at 5:37 PM
The National Weather Service will host an onsite hiring event at the upcoming AMS Student Conference in Houston