Peter Mullinax
@wxmvpete.bsky.social
Meteorologist at NOAA's Weather Predicition Center. Proud father & husband. Northern VA raised, DC sports fan. My thoughts & opinions are my own.
An exceptional winter storm that has the Carolinas, eastern TN, and northeast GA in its sights will produce a swath of heavy snow, including potential blizzard conditions along the NC coast this weekend.
January 30, 2026 at 11:48 AM
An exceptional winter storm that has the Carolinas, eastern TN, and northeast GA in its sights will produce a swath of heavy snow, including potential blizzard conditions along the NC coast this weekend.
A major winter storm is set to produce heavy snow, whiteout conditions, and potentially blizzard conditions in parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Impacts stretch as far south as Atlanta & even Savannah. You can read the WPC discussion here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
January 29, 2026 at 8:21 PM
A major winter storm is set to produce heavy snow, whiteout conditions, and potentially blizzard conditions in parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Impacts stretch as far south as Atlanta & even Savannah. You can read the WPC discussion here: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
The latest Key Messages continue to identify the Carolinas & Southesst VA as facing the worst impacts. Unlike the last winter storm, high winds & blowing snow are a bigger concern, especially along the coasts.
January 29, 2026 at 9:58 AM
The latest Key Messages continue to identify the Carolinas & Southesst VA as facing the worst impacts. Unlike the last winter storm, high winds & blowing snow are a bigger concern, especially along the coasts.
Good morning! Key Messages have begun for the eastern U.S. winter storm.
January 28, 2026 at 10:27 AM
Good morning! Key Messages have begun for the eastern U.S. winter storm.
I left last week to the start of one winter storm, to coming back from my weekend off to another. I try to dive into some of the scenarios & why this weekend forecast is far from a lock: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
January 27, 2026 at 8:17 PM
I left last week to the start of one winter storm, to coming back from my weekend off to another. I try to dive into some of the scenarios & why this weekend forecast is far from a lock: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
This is why there remains such exceptional spread in position & intensity of the storm location. Over the last 24 hours, the only thing that increased in confidence is there is likely to be a strong coastal low. Beaches are likely to take a pounding. Otherwise, a lot of ?s remain
January 27, 2026 at 1:40 PM
This is why there remains such exceptional spread in position & intensity of the storm location. Over the last 24 hours, the only thing that increased in confidence is there is likely to be a strong coastal low. Beaches are likely to take a pounding. Otherwise, a lot of ?s remain
Regarding the East Coast winter storm threat-- 06Z EC-AIFS ensembles still show high spread in a few areas: 1. The shortwave trough placement/amplitude/tilt as it track off the East Coast, 2. suppression feature south of Nova Scotia, 3. trailing shortwave in Central Plains.
January 27, 2026 at 1:40 PM
Regarding the East Coast winter storm threat-- 06Z EC-AIFS ensembles still show high spread in a few areas: 1. The shortwave trough placement/amplitude/tilt as it track off the East Coast, 2. suppression feature south of Nova Scotia, 3. trailing shortwave in Central Plains.
That TPV is a huge deal. I am also wondering if the anomalously warm Gulf and Southeast Atlantic warm waters play any sort of role in terms of higher heights than what is currently being modeled. Lots of questions, not many answers at the moment.
January 27, 2026 at 1:19 PM
That TPV is a huge deal. I am also wondering if the anomalously warm Gulf and Southeast Atlantic warm waters play any sort of role in terms of higher heights than what is currently being modeled. Lots of questions, not many answers at the moment.
Latest WPC post: "Here is the latest information regarding a potentially significant coastal storm this weekend. Chances have increased for impactful snow and/or wind along the immediate East Coast, but uncertainty remains rather high with respect to details. Be sure to keep checking for updates!"
January 27, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Latest WPC post: "Here is the latest information regarding a potentially significant coastal storm this weekend. Chances have increased for impactful snow and/or wind along the immediate East Coast, but uncertainty remains rather high with respect to details. Be sure to keep checking for updates!"
The depth of that low-level cold air is why sleet sticks around for a while. Farther east, along and east of I-95 is where as the day progresses, the warm nose grows larger and the low-level frigid temps warm. That is when we become more concerned for freezing rain.
January 25, 2026 at 2:23 PM
The depth of that low-level cold air is why sleet sticks around for a while. Farther east, along and east of I-95 is where as the day progresses, the warm nose grows larger and the low-level frigid temps warm. That is when we become more concerned for freezing rain.
Also, the dendritic growth zone is saturated but smaller around 500mb and falling into that warm nose. Explains the smaller flakes so many so saw this morning.
January 25, 2026 at 2:23 PM
Also, the dendritic growth zone is saturated but smaller around 500mb and falling into that warm nose. Explains the smaller flakes so many so saw this morning.
12Z Dulles, VA sounding eqrlier this morning. Got family nearby that under 1 hour later were reporting sleet. The warm nose in the 700-750mb layer is the culprit.
January 25, 2026 at 2:22 PM
12Z Dulles, VA sounding eqrlier this morning. Got family nearby that under 1 hour later were reporting sleet. The warm nose in the 700-750mb layer is the culprit.
"What does a classic freezing rain sounding look like?"
Exhibit A--
Exhibit A--
January 25, 2026 at 3:08 AM
"What does a classic freezing rain sounding look like?"
Exhibit A--
Exhibit A--
Probably one of the busiest weeks of my career. A big thank you to everyone who collaborated with us this week. A thank you to all those who will be in their NWS offices working this event over the weekend. Lastly, thanks to our team at WPC for their hard work this week. Be safe everyone!
Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.
January 24, 2026 at 12:34 AM
Probably one of the busiest weeks of my career. A big thank you to everyone who collaborated with us this week. A thank you to all those who will be in their NWS offices working this event over the weekend. Lastly, thanks to our team at WPC for their hard work this week. Be safe everyone!
Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.
January 23, 2026 at 9:09 PM
Here are the latest Key Messages from WPC which now sport total snow and ice accumulations forecasts.
My "Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion" for the impending winter storm just got posted: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
WPC's Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
January 23, 2026 at 9:07 PM
My "Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion" for the impending winter storm just got posted: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/...
Here's the updated Key Messages from this afternoon, now highlighting the potential for locally catastrophic ice accumulations. The snow and ice is going nowhere any time soon in the east. In fact, some guidance shows much of the Northeast may struggle to get above freezing before the end of January
January 22, 2026 at 11:04 PM
Here's the updated Key Messages from this afternoon, now highlighting the potential for locally catastrophic ice accumulations. The snow and ice is going nowhere any time soon in the east. In fact, some guidance shows much of the Northeast may struggle to get above freezing before the end of January
For those in the NYC market-- I will be interviewed on Fox 5 at 7:15PM about the impending winter storm.
January 22, 2026 at 8:55 PM
For those in the NYC market-- I will be interviewed on Fox 5 at 7:15PM about the impending winter storm.
You can view slides on the ECMWF EFI and SOT product here: www.resources.eumetrain.org/data/4/487/m...
www.resources.eumetrain.org
January 22, 2026 at 2:08 PM
You can view slides on the ECMWF EFI and SOT product here: www.resources.eumetrain.org/data/4/487/m...
Typically anything over 0.8 is indicative of an unusual or extreme event. What is also depicted is the Shift of Tails. Per ECMWF, "Positive SOT values indicate that at least 10% of the ensemble is forecasting an extreme event; the higher the SOT, the more extreme that top 10% is"
January 22, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Typically anything over 0.8 is indicative of an unusual or extreme event. What is also depicted is the Shift of Tails. Per ECMWF, "Positive SOT values indicate that at least 10% of the ensemble is forecasting an extreme event; the higher the SOT, the more extreme that top 10% is"
As Euro ensembles gradually come into better agreement on their swath of heaviest snow, the Euro EFI becomes very useful. It tells us how unusual & extreme a specific weather variable can be based on thousands of reforecasts over a 5-week period centered on that day.
January 22, 2026 at 2:08 PM
As Euro ensembles gradually come into better agreement on their swath of heaviest snow, the Euro EFI becomes very useful. It tells us how unusual & extreme a specific weather variable can be based on thousands of reforecasts over a 5-week period centered on that day.
Good morning! Here are the newest Key Messages posted this morning.
January 22, 2026 at 11:04 AM
Good morning! Here are the newest Key Messages posted this morning.
WSO probabilities for snowfall totals exceeding each forecast office's warning criteria are at least 50% from central New Mexico to Long Island. That is one large >80% area from central KY to The Jersey Shore too. Snow will fall, lots of snow, over a large swath of the country.
January 22, 2026 at 2:46 AM
WSO probabilities for snowfall totals exceeding each forecast office's warning criteria are at least 50% from central New Mexico to Long Island. That is one large >80% area from central KY to The Jersey Shore too. Snow will fall, lots of snow, over a large swath of the country.
Here were the latest WPC Key Messages regarding the impending winter storm and extreme cold. Each time I post these, the probabilities for Moderate Impacts keep going up.
January 22, 2026 at 2:37 AM
Here were the latest WPC Key Messages regarding the impending winter storm and extreme cold. Each time I post these, the probabilities for Moderate Impacts keep going up.
That said, regardless of spread, the synoptic setup is ideal. There is no shortage of Gulf moisture running directly into an arctic air-mass anchored by cold air damming. All the while placed beneath the thermally-direct right entrance region of a 300mb jet streak.
January 21, 2026 at 2:21 AM
That said, regardless of spread, the synoptic setup is ideal. There is no shortage of Gulf moisture running directly into an arctic air-mass anchored by cold air damming. All the while placed beneath the thermally-direct right entrance region of a 300mb jet streak.