Peter Mullinax
@wxmvpete.bsky.social
Meteorologist at NOAA's Weather Predicition Center. Proud father & husband. Northern VA raised, DC sports fan. My thoughts & opinions are my own.
My shot of tonight's aurora from Manchester, MD.
November 12, 2025 at 1:38 AM
My shot of tonight's aurora from Manchester, MD.
Happy Halloween to all the witches, ghosts, ghouls, and K-Pop Demon Hunters slaying demons on their way to getting candy tonight!
garfield is wearing a pirate hat and holding a bag of sand
ALT: garfield is wearing a pirate hat and holding a bag of sand
media.tenor.com
October 31, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Happy Halloween to all the witches, ghosts, ghouls, and K-Pop Demon Hunters slaying demons on their way to getting candy tonight!
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica.
rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/...
#hurricanemelissa
rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/...
#hurricanemelissa
October 28, 2025 at 12:52 PM
This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica.
rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/...
#hurricanemelissa
rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/...
#hurricanemelissa
Watching this game: "3 turnovers inside KC territory is maddening and it is same old, same old"
What the score says: "7-7 at halftime in KC? Have to take that."
What the score says: "7-7 at halftime in KC? Have to take that."
October 28, 2025 at 1:32 AM
Watching this game: "3 turnovers inside KC territory is maddening and it is same old, same old"
What the score says: "7-7 at halftime in KC? Have to take that."
What the score says: "7-7 at halftime in KC? Have to take that."
Seeing the eye steadily warm/dry out from where it was 4 hours ago (1430Z) to where it is now (1830Z) is another clear sign of #Melissa strengthening. Each HH pass through the eye is showing a warming/drier mid-level layer. And a lower pressure reading each time, of course.
October 26, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Seeing the eye steadily warm/dry out from where it was 4 hours ago (1430Z) to where it is now (1830Z) is another clear sign of #Melissa strengthening. Each HH pass through the eye is showing a warming/drier mid-level layer. And a lower pressure reading each time, of course.
While the track is coming into much better agreement, there remains a good deal of spread regarding when #Melissa makes its NE turn. @burgwx.bsky.social's page shows some members are lagging SW of Jamaica while some are more progressive.
October 26, 2025 at 3:21 PM
While the track is coming into much better agreement, there remains a good deal of spread regarding when #Melissa makes its NE turn. @burgwx.bsky.social's page shows some members are lagging SW of Jamaica while some are more progressive.
06Z HAFS-B pressure forecast was closer to what HHs were observing earlier today. It shows another period of RI starting sometime tonight and into Monday morning. Given #Melissa has another 48 hrs over the Caribbean, it unfortunately still has time to strengthen prior to landfall.
October 26, 2025 at 3:08 PM
06Z HAFS-B pressure forecast was closer to what HHs were observing earlier today. It shows another period of RI starting sometime tonight and into Monday morning. Given #Melissa has another 48 hrs over the Caribbean, it unfortunately still has time to strengthen prior to landfall.
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
Comparison between this morning & evening NOAA tail Doppler radar data shows Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensifying. Will be a major hurricane soon and a generational storm for Jamaica.
October 26, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Comparison between this morning & evening NOAA tail Doppler radar data shows Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensifying. Will be a major hurricane soon and a generational storm for Jamaica.
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data from the current recon mission into Melissa shows that the vortex is vertically stacked up to 15 km w/ the upshear/NW quad being the strongest.
This is about as favorable of a vortex structure as you’ll see for rapid intensification
Plots from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social
This is about as favorable of a vortex structure as you’ll see for rapid intensification
Plots from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social
October 26, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data from the current recon mission into Melissa shows that the vortex is vertically stacked up to 15 km w/ the upshear/NW quad being the strongest.
This is about as favorable of a vortex structure as you’ll see for rapid intensification
Plots from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social
This is about as favorable of a vortex structure as you’ll see for rapid intensification
Plots from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
One thing I am watching closely tonight is the short-term motion of #Melissa.
Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️
Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️
October 25, 2025 at 11:28 PM
One thing I am watching closely tonight is the short-term motion of #Melissa.
Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️
Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18
...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAM...
Additional Details Here.
...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAM...
Additional Details Here.
October 25, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18
...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAM...
Additional Details Here.
...MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAM...
Additional Details Here.
Quick shout out to @pppapin.bsky.social & his colleagues at NHC who have been outstanding in forecasting #Melissa & coordinating with our (WPC's) International Desk. Phillipe's latest 5PM EDT discussion is excellent.
October 24, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Quick shout out to @pppapin.bsky.social & his colleagues at NHC who have been outstanding in forecasting #Melissa & coordinating with our (WPC's) International Desk. Phillipe's latest 5PM EDT discussion is excellent.
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
There are two noteworthy things about the latest NHC forecast for Melissa:
1. This is the first time NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification at day 3-4 lead time
2. If latest forecast trends hold, this forecast could still be a significant intensity underestimate
1. This is the first time NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification at day 3-4 lead time
2. If latest forecast trends hold, this forecast could still be a significant intensity underestimate
October 22, 2025 at 9:40 PM
There are two noteworthy things about the latest NHC forecast for Melissa:
1. This is the first time NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification at day 3-4 lead time
2. If latest forecast trends hold, this forecast could still be a significant intensity underestimate
1. This is the first time NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification at day 3-4 lead time
2. If latest forecast trends hold, this forecast could still be a significant intensity underestimate
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
Overnight guidance has continued to abandon Melissa turning NE into Hispaniola, and is increasingly concentrated on a west track south of Jamaica - a scenario which could easily support a category 5 hurricane in an exceptionally favorable environment for intensification.
October 22, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Overnight guidance has continued to abandon Melissa turning NE into Hispaniola, and is increasingly concentrated on a west track south of Jamaica - a scenario which could easily support a category 5 hurricane in an exceptionally favorable environment for intensification.
Can't say enough about what Ohtani did tonight. We have seen games where a pitcher dominated or a hitter be the bulk of the offense in 1 game, but he did BOTH. If you look up the phrase "put the team in his back", this performance will be the quintessential definition of that
October 18, 2025 at 2:58 AM
Can't say enough about what Ohtani did tonight. We have seen games where a pitcher dominated or a hitter be the bulk of the offense in 1 game, but he did BOTH. If you look up the phrase "put the team in his back", this performance will be the quintessential definition of that
Not starting Dart week 1 appears to be malpractice in hindsight.
October 10, 2025 at 2:09 AM
Not starting Dart week 1 appears to be malpractice in hindsight.
WPC has started Key Messages for the coastal storm that is set to bring a myriad of impacts to the East Coast this weekend. These will be updated under WPC's Top Stories section on WPC's homepage each day through the upcoming weekend.
October 8, 2025 at 6:24 PM
WPC has started Key Messages for the coastal storm that is set to bring a myriad of impacts to the East Coast this weekend. These will be updated under WPC's Top Stories section on WPC's homepage each day through the upcoming weekend.
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
Highly unusual situation approaching western Colorado with the moisture from Hurricane Priscilla. Grand Junction has never had precipitable water over an inch (25mm) so late in the year, but looks like it will be near that level on both Fri & Sat. Six standard deviations above average! #cowx 1/2
October 8, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Highly unusual situation approaching western Colorado with the moisture from Hurricane Priscilla. Grand Junction has never had precipitable water over an inch (25mm) so late in the year, but looks like it will be near that level on both Fri & Sat. Six standard deviations above average! #cowx 1/2
Heavy rain is coming to the Southwest over the next 7 days thanks to Priscilla late week & the trailing East Pacific disturbance this weekend. Flooding is going to be a problem the second half of the week in heavily impacted areas, along complex terrain, & over burn scars.
October 8, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Heavy rain is coming to the Southwest over the next 7 days thanks to Priscilla late week & the trailing East Pacific disturbance this weekend. Flooding is going to be a problem the second half of the week in heavily impacted areas, along complex terrain, & over burn scars.
My initial reaction: "oh man, if only this were January!"
Thinks more about how recent years have gone: "it would find a way to be 33 and rain, wouldn't it."
Thinks more about how recent years have gone: "it would find a way to be 33 and rain, wouldn't it."
October 7, 2025 at 5:59 PM
My initial reaction: "oh man, if only this were January!"
Thinks more about how recent years have gone: "it would find a way to be 33 and rain, wouldn't it."
Thinks more about how recent years have gone: "it would find a way to be 33 and rain, wouldn't it."
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
*whispers* Drake Maye did a lot of Josh Allen shit tonight
October 6, 2025 at 3:18 AM
*whispers* Drake Maye did a lot of Josh Allen shit tonight
Reposted by Peter Mullinax
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has unveiled the experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard. It uses high-res model guidance to highlight where chances of intense rain rates are highest in major cities. It’s linked in “Forecast Tools” tab on the WPC home page. Direct link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/urrd/
September 26, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has unveiled the experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard. It uses high-res model guidance to highlight where chances of intense rain rates are highest in major cities. It’s linked in “Forecast Tools” tab on the WPC home page. Direct link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/urrd/
It is opening night! Lucky me, I kick off the opening of the winter desk tonight.
September 25, 2025 at 12:07 AM
It is opening night! Lucky me, I kick off the opening of the winter desk tonight.