Tropical Atlantic
@tropicalatlantic.com
Hurricane hunter reconnaissance data and models.
Website: https://tropicalatlantic.com/
Backup systems hosted at: @hurricanecity.com
Our site is not affiliated with any governmental entity.
Website: https://tropicalatlantic.com/
Backup systems hosted at: @hurricanecity.com
Our site is not affiliated with any governmental entity.
The Air Force & NOAA hurricane hunters conducted 33 missions into, and around, #Melissa. Additional information appears in the alternate text for the images.
November 1, 2025 at 10:40 AM
The Air Force & NOAA hurricane hunters conducted 33 missions into, and around, #Melissa. Additional information appears in the alternate text for the images.
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
I deeply respect the work that's been invested into exploring our approaches to tracking high-end tropical cyclones, but I can't in good conscience remain silent regarding the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) and discussion around a so-called category 6. 🧵 [1/5]
October 29, 2025 at 2:06 PM
I deeply respect the work that's been invested into exploring our approaches to tracking high-end tropical cyclones, but I can't in good conscience remain silent regarding the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) and discussion around a so-called category 6. 🧵 [1/5]
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
Not since 1935 has anyone experienced a storm like Melissa. Melissa's record wouldn't have happened without climate change, which made the hurricane's winds about 10 mph stronger, according to a rapid attribution analysis by Climate Central. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cata...
Catastrophic Hurricane Melissa hits Jamaica as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record » Yale Climate Connections
At landfall in western Jamaica, Melissa’s 185 mph winds and 892 mb pressure tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 in the Florida Keys as the strongest on record for the Atlantic.
yaleclimateconnections.org
October 28, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Not since 1935 has anyone experienced a storm like Melissa. Melissa's record wouldn't have happened without climate change, which made the hurricane's winds about 10 mph stronger, according to a rapid attribution analysis by Climate Central. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cata...
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
WCK is in Jamaica ahead of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa’s landfall. The storm is expected to bring destructive winds, torrential rain & widespread flooding. We’re working with local partners to serve meals as quickly as possible.
Read more: wck.org/news/hurricane-melissa
#ChefsForJamaica
Read more: wck.org/news/hurricane-melissa
#ChefsForJamaica
October 27, 2025 at 9:30 PM
WCK is in Jamaica ahead of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa’s landfall. The storm is expected to bring destructive winds, torrential rain & widespread flooding. We’re working with local partners to serve meals as quickly as possible.
Read more: wck.org/news/hurricane-melissa
#ChefsForJamaica
Read more: wck.org/news/hurricane-melissa
#ChefsForJamaica
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm.
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
October 28, 2025 at 5:27 PM
One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm.
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
A climate justice disaster is underway in Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa moves over the island.
October 28, 2025 at 5:28 PM
A climate justice disaster is underway in Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa moves over the island.
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
Major Hurricane Melissa makes a historic landfall near New Hope, Jamaica.
October 28, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Major Hurricane Melissa makes a historic landfall near New Hope, Jamaica.
1:00pm EDT on Oct 28, 2025: #Melissa has made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica with 185mph wind & pressure of 892mb. For wind, ties for strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane matching Labor Day hurricane in 1935 in Florida Keys & Dorian in 2019 in Bahamas. For pressure, ties for Labor Day hurricane
October 28, 2025 at 5:02 PM
1:00pm EDT on Oct 28, 2025: #Melissa has made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica with 185mph wind & pressure of 892mb. For wind, ties for strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane matching Labor Day hurricane in 1935 in Florida Keys & Dorian in 2019 in Bahamas. For pressure, ties for Labor Day hurricane
At 11:15 am EDT, Air Force hurricane hunters posted about returning to Curacao "after encountering heavy turbulence today while entering the eye of Hurricane Melissa". "During the event, the aircraft briefly experienced forces stronger than normal due to turbulence" www.facebook.com/hurricanehun...
October 28, 2025 at 3:31 PM
At 11:15 am EDT, Air Force hurricane hunters posted about returning to Curacao "after encountering heavy turbulence today while entering the eye of Hurricane Melissa". "During the event, the aircraft briefly experienced forces stronger than normal due to turbulence" www.facebook.com/hurricanehun...
A catastrophic, historical event is about to unfold in Jamaica.
Hurricane warnings are also in effect for parts of eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas which will also experience the impact of #Melissa.
Hurricane warnings are also in effect for parts of eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas which will also experience the impact of #Melissa.
October 28, 2025 at 1:51 PM
A catastrophic, historical event is about to unfold in Jamaica.
Hurricane warnings are also in effect for parts of eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas which will also experience the impact of #Melissa.
Hurricane warnings are also in effect for parts of eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas which will also experience the impact of #Melissa.
9:05am EDT Monday on #Melissa: Air Force dropsonde has measured a pressure of 893 millibars. (with 13 knots of surface wind this may indicate a pressure of around 892 millibars) If 893mb, it makes it 4th strongest ever recoded in the Atlantic in terms of pressure. If 892mb, it makes it tied for 3rd.
October 28, 2025 at 1:31 PM
9:05am EDT Monday on #Melissa: Air Force dropsonde has measured a pressure of 893 millibars. (with 13 knots of surface wind this may indicate a pressure of around 892 millibars) If 893mb, it makes it 4th strongest ever recoded in the Atlantic in terms of pressure. If 892mb, it makes it tied for 3rd.
9am EDT Tuesday update from NHC on #Melissa: "An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that Melissa is strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h). Estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data has fallen to 896 mb (26.47 inches)." www.nhc.noaa.gov
October 28, 2025 at 1:18 PM
9am EDT Tuesday update from NHC on #Melissa: "An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that Melissa is strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h). Estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data has fallen to 896 mb (26.47 inches)." www.nhc.noaa.gov
In regard to high SFMR readings with the current Air Force mission, please see this post from @franklinjamesl.bsky.social. SFMR readings are estimated. Recon does indicate that Melissa is further strengthening and some of the most recent flight level wind data was not available for the 2am advisory.
Alan, unless something has changed recently, the SFMR data aren’t considered properly calibrated. NOAA turned off the transmission of the SFMR but that’s harder to do on the AF C-130s.
October 27, 2025 at 6:30 AM
In regard to high SFMR readings with the current Air Force mission, please see this post from @franklinjamesl.bsky.social. SFMR readings are estimated. Recon does indicate that Melissa is further strengthening and some of the most recent flight level wind data was not available for the 2am advisory.
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
If current forecasts hold, Melissa will be the most powerful hurricane ever to strike Jamaica. Sustained winds at landfall may top 140 mph, along with localized rains of 40"+ and major storm surge. Here's my latest update with @drjeffmasters.bsky.social:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/meli...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/meli...
Melissa leaps from tropical storm to Category 4 hurricane in 18 hours » Yale Climate Connections
Catastrophic impacts are becoming increasingly likely for Jamaica, with Melissa expected to crash onshore by early Tuesday.
yaleclimateconnections.org
October 26, 2025 at 7:16 PM
If current forecasts hold, Melissa will be the most powerful hurricane ever to strike Jamaica. Sustained winds at landfall may top 140 mph, along with localized rains of 40"+ and major storm surge. Here's my latest update with @drjeffmasters.bsky.social:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/meli...
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/meli...
I'm writing code to display wind swath over life of storm using track & wind radii. Want to include exact smoothing NHC uses. "smooth wind field depicted on the graphic is produced by a trigonometric interpolation between the four defined radii" (www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindfie...)
Anyone know how?
Anyone know how?
August 30, 2025 at 5:49 PM
I'm writing code to display wind swath over life of storm using track & wind radii. Want to include exact smoothing NHC uses. "smooth wind field depicted on the graphic is produced by a trigonometric interpolation between the four defined radii" (www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindfie...)
Anyone know how?
Anyone know how?
After investigating the cause of why our site was operating slowly we have found that the result was a Python script that accessed our site from the same IP address over 12 million times in the past week. We have blocked that IP address and the Python module used.
August 28, 2025 at 5:18 AM
After investigating the cause of why our site was operating slowly we have found that the result was a Python script that accessed our site from the same IP address over 12 million times in the past week. We have blocked that IP address and the Python module used.
Our site is currently being hit with 30,000 requests per hour hitting the same pages in our recon system, mostly the same recon missions on Erin. It may be a Python script doing it. We're trying to mitigate it & you may be asked to solve a CAPTCHA challenge from Cloudflare before accessing the site.
August 27, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Our site is currently being hit with 30,000 requests per hour hitting the same pages in our recon system, mostly the same recon missions on Erin. It may be a Python script doing it. We're trying to mitigate it & you may be asked to solve a CAPTCHA challenge from Cloudflare before accessing the site.
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
A large portion of the Atlantic coastline will see the risk for high surf and rip currents this week due to #Erin.
🟥Risk of Rip Currents is High🟥
Life-threatening rip currents are likely. Swimming conditions are unsafe for all levels of swimmers. Stay out of the water.
nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...
🟥Risk of Rip Currents is High🟥
Life-threatening rip currents are likely. Swimming conditions are unsafe for all levels of swimmers. Stay out of the water.
nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...
August 18, 2025 at 5:59 PM
A large portion of the Atlantic coastline will see the risk for high surf and rip currents this week due to #Erin.
🟥Risk of Rip Currents is High🟥
Life-threatening rip currents are likely. Swimming conditions are unsafe for all levels of swimmers. Stay out of the water.
nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...
🟥Risk of Rip Currents is High🟥
Life-threatening rip currents are likely. Swimming conditions are unsafe for all levels of swimmers. Stay out of the water.
nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
“With the proposed shuttering of AOML, HRD… forecasters could lose all tools currently available to estimate and forecast hurricane intensity. It’s a seismic blow to the arsenal of tools forecasters rely on…”
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/noaa-propo...
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/noaa-propo...
July 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
“With the proposed shuttering of AOML, HRD… forecasters could lose all tools currently available to estimate and forecast hurricane intensity. It’s a seismic blow to the arsenal of tools forecasters rely on…”
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/noaa-propo...
michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/noaa-propo...
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
For no particular reason, thinking about some of the major aspects of NHC operations that came out of the NOAA/OAR research labs and the Cooperative Institutes. I've probably missed some key ones, but the first ones that come to mind are...
June 30, 2025 at 9:42 PM
For no particular reason, thinking about some of the major aspects of NHC operations that came out of the NOAA/OAR research labs and the Cooperative Institutes. I've probably missed some key ones, but the first ones that come to mind are...
Reposted by Tropical Atlantic
Just a couple days ago NOAA claimed their "data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve". This budget request puts the lie to that claim.
NOAA budget package details plans to reduce spending, staff, climate research and shut down its labs and cooperative institutes with universities. #NOAA #climatechange www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
NOAA budget spells out plans to reduce spending and abandon climate research
A detailed expense budget for NOAA outlines plans to reduce spending and cut climate and atmospheric research.
www.usatoday.com
July 1, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Just a couple days ago NOAA claimed their "data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve". This budget request puts the lie to that claim.
Vast swaths of NOAA will be gone in 2026 if 2026 NOAA budget is passed. Hurricane research will be significantly reduced, with some parts of NOAA that do it being completely eliminated. Important tools used by the National Hurricane Center will be gone. There will be less hurricane hunter flights.
It's hard to adequately summarize how destructive NOAA's 2026 proposed budget released on Monday is for hurricane forecasting, but I crammed all I could into today's newsletter. I encourage everyone with interests along the coast to read it carefully. ⬇️
NOAA Proposes Permanently Closing Premiere Hurricane Research Institute
In its proposed 2026 budget released Monday, NOAA closes all federally funded weather and climate research labs, including the one responsible for maintaining the nation’s top hurricane models
michaelrlowry.substack.com
July 2, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Vast swaths of NOAA will be gone in 2026 if 2026 NOAA budget is passed. Hurricane research will be significantly reduced, with some parts of NOAA that do it being completely eliminated. Important tools used by the National Hurricane Center will be gone. There will be less hurricane hunter flights.
Imagine ending public release, including to hurricane forecasters, of vital data to see inside storms for fear of data being hacked & released publicly while on its way to being released publicly. That's Trump logic in 2025. If 2026 NOAA budget is passed, there won't be much hurricane research left.
It's hard to adequately summarize how destructive NOAA's 2026 proposed budget released on Monday is for hurricane forecasting, but I crammed all I could into today's newsletter. I encourage everyone with interests along the coast to read it carefully. ⬇️
NOAA Proposes Permanently Closing Premiere Hurricane Research Institute
In its proposed 2026 budget released Monday, NOAA closes all federally funded weather and climate research labs, including the one responsible for maintaining the nation’s top hurricane models
michaelrlowry.substack.com
July 2, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Imagine ending public release, including to hurricane forecasters, of vital data to see inside storms for fear of data being hacked & released publicly while on its way to being released publicly. That's Trump logic in 2025. If 2026 NOAA budget is passed, there won't be much hurricane research left.
As a result of recklessly removing this important data from the hands of forecasters worldwide, thousands of people will likely die. Among those at risk include the poorest & richest nations, U.S. military personnel & their families, and tens of millions all around Atlantic.
A huge blow was dealt to hurricane forecasters this week as a critical tool was abruptly terminated by the Department of Defense and NOAA. The immediate discontinuation of data from three weather satellites will severely impact hurricane forecasts this season and beyond. More ⬇️
Critical Hurricane Forecast Tool Abruptly Terminated
U.S. Department of Defense announced Tuesday it would no longer process and deliver data essential to most hurricane forecasts
michaelrlowry.substack.com
June 29, 2025 at 1:18 AM
As a result of recklessly removing this important data from the hands of forecasters worldwide, thousands of people will likely die. Among those at risk include the poorest & richest nations, U.S. military personnel & their families, and tens of millions all around Atlantic.