Tom Adshead
@tomadshead.bsky.social
Director of Research at Macro-Advisory Ltd. Eurasian economics and politics
This is a fantastic piece of work, really opened up my eyes
I mapped 80k london airbnbs putting pressure on London housing. The result is annoying if you want a simple villain because airbnb is not to blame for this pressure. Anyway I also found 1,500 listings where you can book guilt-free: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle... Map: laurenleek.eu/airbnb_map
Everyone’s Mad at Airbnb. This Map Explains What We Should Blame Instead.
The real reason Airbnb clusters where it does - and 1,500 listings you can book guilt-free if the policymakers won't listen.
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:37 AM
This is a fantastic piece of work, really opened up my eyes
My latest on shower thoughts inspired by Pluribus, this time about Arrow's Impossibility Theorem:
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
Pluribus and Arrow's Impossibility Theorem
Wouldn't life be better if we all thought the same way?
open.substack.com
January 4, 2026 at 12:25 PM
My latest on shower thoughts inspired by Pluribus, this time about Arrow's Impossibility Theorem:
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
I read Babel. I went into it having absolutely adored The Poppy Wars trilogy, and having been in an international postgraduate group in Oxford I was fascinated to see her take on this. Every single BookTok account I follow loved Babel. I'm glad that someone is pointing out the flaws BUT 1/n
Has anyone read the book Babel? I’m trying but every time I start to get into it it gets really didactic in a way that just rips me right back out of it
December 26, 2025 at 8:59 PM
I read Babel. I went into it having absolutely adored The Poppy Wars trilogy, and having been in an international postgraduate group in Oxford I was fascinated to see her take on this. Every single BookTok account I follow loved Babel. I'm glad that someone is pointing out the flaws BUT 1/n
Anything we can actually tinsel, we can afford to tinsel
December 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Anything we can actually tinsel, we can afford to tinsel
In the Adshead family this is known as a kid-size bottle of wine
December 17, 2025 at 11:15 AM
In the Adshead family this is known as a kid-size bottle of wine
There are waivers from both the US and EU on fertilizers and food exports from Russia and Belarus, but previously potash exports from Belarus were not part of the waiver, because of the importance of potash revenues to the Belarussian state
December 15, 2025 at 4:20 PM
There are waivers from both the US and EU on fertilizers and food exports from Russia and Belarus, but previously potash exports from Belarus were not part of the waiver, because of the importance of potash revenues to the Belarussian state
On the other hand, if you've actually lived in Moscow,, the Rublyovka "area" (It's really a main road) is huge, it's like saying that the Hamptons are a gated community for NY's wealthy, or the Cotswolds are a gated community for wealthy Londoners
oh my god there actually is a gated community of horrible people in hiding in Moscow, pleaseeeee someone write that sitcom with me www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
December 15, 2025 at 10:18 AM
On the other hand, if you've actually lived in Moscow,, the Rublyovka "area" (It's really a main road) is huge, it's like saying that the Hamptons are a gated community for NY's wealthy, or the Cotswolds are a gated community for wealthy Londoners
God forbid Rachel Reeves ever wears a tan suit
This is the point where the anti-Reeves stories tip into madness. Criticise her performance all you like but what the hell is this?
December 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
God forbid Rachel Reeves ever wears a tan suit
Reposted by Tom Adshead
But Lord! to see the absurd nature of Englishmen, that cannot forbear laughing and jeering at every thing that looks strange.
November 27, 2025 at 2:02 PM
But Lord! to see the absurd nature of Englishmen, that cannot forbear laughing and jeering at every thing that looks strange.
I have a law on Russian politics which is that when there is an internal political fight within the elite, the first person to go public is usually the eventual loser. Maybe I should expand its application to all authoritarian systems
November 26, 2025 at 3:49 PM
I have a law on Russian politics which is that when there is an internal political fight within the elite, the first person to go public is usually the eventual loser. Maybe I should expand its application to all authoritarian systems
The Saudis subsequently bought an overpriced painting from Rybolovlev, so it's more likely the bribe was from them. No one who knows Russia would describe Rybolovlev as close to the Kremlin
The Kremlin disguised a nearly $100 mn payment to Trump in the form of a brokered real estate deal... and both Jeffrey Epstein and William Pulte were involved in the deal. That's very interesting.
November 13, 2025 at 9:06 PM
The Saudis subsequently bought an overpriced painting from Rybolovlev, so it's more likely the bribe was from them. No one who knows Russia would describe Rybolovlev as close to the Kremlin
First time I've seen someone in the thinktank world ask: "What is more important—a cooperative Georgia or a reform-oriented Georgia?" 1/n us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: The West's Inflection Point in the Caucasus: Untying the Georgian Knot. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Join us for a conversation with Join us for a conversation with:
John DiPirro, Senior Fellow in Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council and Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institu...
us02web.zoom.us
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
First time I've seen someone in the thinktank world ask: "What is more important—a cooperative Georgia or a reform-oriented Georgia?" 1/n us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
I was fascinated by this post from Telegram: t.me/yurasumy/25457. It shows how Russian troops enter a town in the new reality of drone strikes. You need to wait for fog, and I guess the small cars and motorcycles make the target spread out. So this is how infantry tactics are changing on the ground.
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Туман наше все: ВС РФ под покровом тумана входят в Покровск...
Когда на землю ложится густой туман, «птички» слепы. А значит дроновая угроза сводится почти к нулю.
А потому туман — друг солдата. Од...
t.me
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
I was fascinated by this post from Telegram: t.me/yurasumy/25457. It shows how Russian troops enter a town in the new reality of drone strikes. You need to wait for fog, and I guess the small cars and motorcycles make the target spread out. So this is how infantry tactics are changing on the ground.
It's not just McFaul (although he chooses to post about it) but most American "experts" on Russia are horrifyingly distant from their subject matter. (a) if you've spent time in Kyiv or Minsk in the last 20 years you will understand that it's possible to make good money there 1/n
November 8, 2025 at 8:47 AM
It's not just McFaul (although he chooses to post about it) but most American "experts" on Russia are horrifyingly distant from their subject matter. (a) if you've spent time in Kyiv or Minsk in the last 20 years you will understand that it's possible to make good money there 1/n
www.reuters.com/business/maz... Mazda lets its buyback option expire in regards to its Russian assets. This is not surprising given the current state of sanctions, and we are likely to see a number of similar announcements in the coming months. 1/n
Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says
Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
www.reuters.com/business/maz... Mazda lets its buyback option expire in regards to its Russian assets. This is not surprising given the current state of sanctions, and we are likely to see a number of similar announcements in the coming months. 1/n
tashkenttimes.uz/national/162...
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
UNITY military exercises of five countries commence in Uzbekistan
Large-scale military exercises involving units from the defense ministries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan commenced at Kattakurgan training ground of the Central Mil...
tashkenttimes.uz
October 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM
tashkenttimes.uz/national/162...
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
"Kremlin-led" is such a weaselly adjective. The EaEU makes decisions unanimously, like the EU which it apes in many aspects of its work. Russia is the largest budget contributor, because it's the largest economy. If it's "Kremlin-led", why was Russia rebuffed when it wanted a single currency?
ICYMI: Kremlin-led group wants to be more like Brussels. Bne IntelliNews
Eurasian Economic Union planning operational changes
Kremlin-led group wants to be more like Brussels.
dlvr.it
October 15, 2025 at 2:22 PM
"Kremlin-led" is such a weaselly adjective. The EaEU makes decisions unanimously, like the EU which it apes in many aspects of its work. Russia is the largest budget contributor, because it's the largest economy. If it's "Kremlin-led", why was Russia rebuffed when it wanted a single currency?
Reposted by Tom Adshead
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs. Bne IntelliNews
MACRO ADVISORY: The unintended consequences of Western sanctions
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs.
dlvr.it
October 12, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs. Bne IntelliNews
Looking at the countries I cover, it does feel like an omission for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic not to ratify the WTO Fisheries Agreement, since presumably the fact that they are landlocked means that they have no fishing industry to protect
Supposedly, since Sep 15, the agreement has been “in effect”—in fact, not until yesterday for Oman and Mali, and still not in effect in 51 others.
The @wto.org and @noiweala.bsky.social are not helping us by creating the (false) impression that the agreement is in effect everywhere. It isn’t.
2/2
The @wto.org and @noiweala.bsky.social are not helping us by creating the (false) impression that the agreement is in effect everywhere. It isn’t.
2/2
October 9, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Looking at the countries I cover, it does feel like an omission for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic not to ratify the WTO Fisheries Agreement, since presumably the fact that they are landlocked means that they have no fishing industry to protect
Igor Rudenya moves from Governor of Tverskaya Oblast to NorthWest Presidential Plenipotentiary. Not really a rising star, and the local view is that he's chosen because he's not linked to any of the St Petersburg clans. Seen as a personal choice of Putin, someone who gets things done 1/n
September 29, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Igor Rudenya moves from Governor of Tverskaya Oblast to NorthWest Presidential Plenipotentiary. Not really a rising star, and the local view is that he's chosen because he's not linked to any of the St Petersburg clans. Seen as a personal choice of Putin, someone who gets things done 1/n
I'm not sure I'm strong enough to be an Arsenal supporter
September 28, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I'm not sure I'm strong enough to be an Arsenal supporter
Just doing some work on Kozak's departure from the Presidential Administration. Lots of Western media saying that he spoke out against the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I looked at the Security Council stenograph: kremlin.ru/events/presi..., and I don't see him against the recognition of the Donbass 1/n
kremlin.ru
September 26, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Just doing some work on Kozak's departure from the Presidential Administration. Lots of Western media saying that he spoke out against the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I looked at the Security Council stenograph: kremlin.ru/events/presi..., and I don't see him against the recognition of the Donbass 1/n
Erm - thalidomide was withdrawn in 1961 and Farage was born in 1964, so when was he told it was safe? Also he does know that a whole new drug testing system has been built since then?
Bit of a Reform/Lib Dems row this morning. Nigel Farage asked about Donald Trump's unproven comments on the drug Tylenol and pregnancy on LBC:
"I have no idea ... you know, we were told thalidomide was a very safe drug and it wasn't. Who knows, Nick, I don't know."
"I have no idea ... you know, we were told thalidomide was a very safe drug and it wasn't. Who knows, Nick, I don't know."
September 24, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Erm - thalidomide was withdrawn in 1961 and Farage was born in 1964, so when was he told it was safe? Also he does know that a whole new drug testing system has been built since then?
It just occurred to me that this was a feature, not a bug. The idea was that Trump would remember Mandelson from the Epstein parties
Starmer knew of Mandelson's close links with Epstein and still chose to place him at the heart of his project. Hubris, ineptitude or was the mass sexual exploitation of young women just not that important? www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Mandelson: more ‘very embarrassing’ details of Epstein friendship to come
UK ambassador to US says he regrets continuing his association with paedophile financier ‘far longer than I should have done’
www.theguardian.com
September 10, 2025 at 10:51 AM
It just occurred to me that this was a feature, not a bug. The idea was that Trump would remember Mandelson from the Epstein parties