Tom Adshead
@tomadshead.bsky.social
Director of Research at Macro-Advisory Ltd. Eurasian economics and politics
The Saudis subsequently bought an overpriced painting from Rybolovlev, so it's more likely the bribe was from them. No one who knows Russia would describe Rybolovlev as close to the Kremlin
The Kremlin disguised a nearly $100 mn payment to Trump in the form of a brokered real estate deal... and both Jeffrey Epstein and William Pulte were involved in the deal. That's very interesting.
November 13, 2025 at 9:06 PM
The Saudis subsequently bought an overpriced painting from Rybolovlev, so it's more likely the bribe was from them. No one who knows Russia would describe Rybolovlev as close to the Kremlin
First time I've seen someone in the thinktank world ask: "What is more important—a cooperative Georgia or a reform-oriented Georgia?" 1/n us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: The West's Inflection Point in the Caucasus: Untying the Georgian Knot. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Join us for a conversation with Join us for a conversation with:
John DiPirro, Senior Fellow in Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council and Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institu...
us02web.zoom.us
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
First time I've seen someone in the thinktank world ask: "What is more important—a cooperative Georgia or a reform-oriented Georgia?" 1/n us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
I was fascinated by this post from Telegram: t.me/yurasumy/25457. It shows how Russian troops enter a town in the new reality of drone strikes. You need to wait for fog, and I guess the small cars and motorcycles make the target spread out. So this is how infantry tactics are changing on the ground.
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Туман наше все: ВС РФ под покровом тумана входят в Покровск...
Когда на землю ложится густой туман, «птички» слепы. А значит дроновая угроза сводится почти к нулю.
А потому туман — друг солдата. Од...
t.me
November 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
I was fascinated by this post from Telegram: t.me/yurasumy/25457. It shows how Russian troops enter a town in the new reality of drone strikes. You need to wait for fog, and I guess the small cars and motorcycles make the target spread out. So this is how infantry tactics are changing on the ground.
It's not just McFaul (although he chooses to post about it) but most American "experts" on Russia are horrifyingly distant from their subject matter. (a) if you've spent time in Kyiv or Minsk in the last 20 years you will understand that it's possible to make good money there 1/n
November 8, 2025 at 8:47 AM
It's not just McFaul (although he chooses to post about it) but most American "experts" on Russia are horrifyingly distant from their subject matter. (a) if you've spent time in Kyiv or Minsk in the last 20 years you will understand that it's possible to make good money there 1/n
www.reuters.com/business/maz... Mazda lets its buyback option expire in regards to its Russian assets. This is not surprising given the current state of sanctions, and we are likely to see a number of similar announcements in the coming months. 1/n
Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says
Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
www.reuters.com/business/maz... Mazda lets its buyback option expire in regards to its Russian assets. This is not surprising given the current state of sanctions, and we are likely to see a number of similar announcements in the coming months. 1/n
tashkenttimes.uz/national/162...
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
UNITY military exercises of five countries commence in Uzbekistan
Large-scale military exercises involving units from the defense ministries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan commenced at Kattakurgan training ground of the Central Mil...
tashkenttimes.uz
October 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM
tashkenttimes.uz/national/162...
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
Surprised there is not wider coverage of this, as only KAZ, KYR and TAJ are part of the CSTO. I doubt they are abandoning the latter, but it's interesting that the countries are working on an alternative defence structure. 1/n
"Kremlin-led" is such a weaselly adjective. The EaEU makes decisions unanimously, like the EU which it apes in many aspects of its work. Russia is the largest budget contributor, because it's the largest economy. If it's "Kremlin-led", why was Russia rebuffed when it wanted a single currency?
ICYMI: Kremlin-led group wants to be more like Brussels. Bne IntelliNews
Eurasian Economic Union planning operational changes
Kremlin-led group wants to be more like Brussels.
dlvr.it
October 15, 2025 at 2:22 PM
"Kremlin-led" is such a weaselly adjective. The EaEU makes decisions unanimously, like the EU which it apes in many aspects of its work. Russia is the largest budget contributor, because it's the largest economy. If it's "Kremlin-led", why was Russia rebuffed when it wanted a single currency?
Reposted by Tom Adshead
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs. Bne IntelliNews
MACRO ADVISORY: The unintended consequences of Western sanctions
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs.
dlvr.it
October 12, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs. Bne IntelliNews
Looking at the countries I cover, it does feel like an omission for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic not to ratify the WTO Fisheries Agreement, since presumably the fact that they are landlocked means that they have no fishing industry to protect
Supposedly, since Sep 15, the agreement has been “in effect”—in fact, not until yesterday for Oman and Mali, and still not in effect in 51 others.
The @wto.org and @noiweala.bsky.social are not helping us by creating the (false) impression that the agreement is in effect everywhere. It isn’t.
2/2
The @wto.org and @noiweala.bsky.social are not helping us by creating the (false) impression that the agreement is in effect everywhere. It isn’t.
2/2
October 9, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Looking at the countries I cover, it does feel like an omission for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic not to ratify the WTO Fisheries Agreement, since presumably the fact that they are landlocked means that they have no fishing industry to protect
Igor Rudenya moves from Governor of Tverskaya Oblast to NorthWest Presidential Plenipotentiary. Not really a rising star, and the local view is that he's chosen because he's not linked to any of the St Petersburg clans. Seen as a personal choice of Putin, someone who gets things done 1/n
September 29, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Igor Rudenya moves from Governor of Tverskaya Oblast to NorthWest Presidential Plenipotentiary. Not really a rising star, and the local view is that he's chosen because he's not linked to any of the St Petersburg clans. Seen as a personal choice of Putin, someone who gets things done 1/n
I'm not sure I'm strong enough to be an Arsenal supporter
September 28, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I'm not sure I'm strong enough to be an Arsenal supporter
Just doing some work on Kozak's departure from the Presidential Administration. Lots of Western media saying that he spoke out against the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I looked at the Security Council stenograph: kremlin.ru/events/presi..., and I don't see him against the recognition of the Donbass 1/n
kremlin.ru
September 26, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Just doing some work on Kozak's departure from the Presidential Administration. Lots of Western media saying that he spoke out against the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I looked at the Security Council stenograph: kremlin.ru/events/presi..., and I don't see him against the recognition of the Donbass 1/n
Erm - thalidomide was withdrawn in 1961 and Farage was born in 1964, so when was he told it was safe? Also he does know that a whole new drug testing system has been built since then?
Bit of a Reform/Lib Dems row this morning. Nigel Farage asked about Donald Trump's unproven comments on the drug Tylenol and pregnancy on LBC:
"I have no idea ... you know, we were told thalidomide was a very safe drug and it wasn't. Who knows, Nick, I don't know."
"I have no idea ... you know, we were told thalidomide was a very safe drug and it wasn't. Who knows, Nick, I don't know."
September 24, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Erm - thalidomide was withdrawn in 1961 and Farage was born in 1964, so when was he told it was safe? Also he does know that a whole new drug testing system has been built since then?
It just occurred to me that this was a feature, not a bug. The idea was that Trump would remember Mandelson from the Epstein parties
Starmer knew of Mandelson's close links with Epstein and still chose to place him at the heart of his project. Hubris, ineptitude or was the mass sexual exploitation of young women just not that important? www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Mandelson: more ‘very embarrassing’ details of Epstein friendship to come
UK ambassador to US says he regrets continuing his association with paedophile financier ‘far longer than I should have done’
www.theguardian.com
September 10, 2025 at 10:51 AM
It just occurred to me that this was a feature, not a bug. The idea was that Trump would remember Mandelson from the Epstein parties
I was just thinking about this in regards to Russian oil. A lot of public strategic debate often suggests that only their side has agency. Why didn't the Biden administration go harder against Russian oil exports? They could have really hurt the economy. (1/n)
Really interesting article.
And a useful reminder that there are no strategic commodities, only strategic uses.
Modern economies adapt, substitute and innovate.
on.ft.com/47N0enx China seeks to triple output of AI chips in race with the US
And a useful reminder that there are no strategic commodities, only strategic uses.
Modern economies adapt, substitute and innovate.
on.ft.com/47N0enx China seeks to triple output of AI chips in race with the US
August 27, 2025 at 11:18 AM
I was just thinking about this in regards to Russian oil. A lot of public strategic debate often suggests that only their side has agency. Why didn't the Biden administration go harder against Russian oil exports? They could have really hurt the economy. (1/n)
This is quite funny, because he's been such a Kremlin bootlicker. As far as I can see, he's collateral damage in the current problems with Azerbaijan. And those problems don't see to be strategic, but related to a relative low-level "nayezd" on assets owned by an ethnic Azerbaijani clan (1/n)
lol, Russia’s Justice Ministry has designated political commentator Sergey Markov as a “foreign agent.” This is the guy who’s regularly cited in the U.S./U.K. media as a staunch pro-Kremlin pundit, which he is. Tough luck, Seryoga! www.rbc.ru/politics/22/...
August 22, 2025 at 3:21 PM
This is quite funny, because he's been such a Kremlin bootlicker. As far as I can see, he's collateral damage in the current problems with Azerbaijan. And those problems don't see to be strategic, but related to a relative low-level "nayezd" on assets owned by an ethnic Azerbaijani clan (1/n)
I feel like this should be getting more coverage. It's been coming for a while, but Kazakhstan's GDP per capita has passed Russia's to become the highest of the ex-USSR countries. Obviously, oil and gas prices are important here (Turkmenistan is third) (1/n)
August 14, 2025 at 10:58 AM
I feel like this should be getting more coverage. It's been coming for a while, but Kazakhstan's GDP per capita has passed Russia's to become the highest of the ex-USSR countries. Obviously, oil and gas prices are important here (Turkmenistan is third) (1/n)
Apparently Trump, Pashinyan and Aliyev will announce a Zangezur corridor called the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity". Why not the "Trump Route for International Peace and Efficiency?" Still a rumour, and it will be a tough sell for Pashinyan domestically, and will annoy Iran
August 7, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Apparently Trump, Pashinyan and Aliyev will announce a Zangezur corridor called the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity". Why not the "Trump Route for International Peace and Efficiency?" Still a rumour, and it will be a tough sell for Pashinyan domestically, and will annoy Iran
My boss's annual "August is the cruellest month" piece, this must be the 25th or 26th by now
There are some annual rituals in Russia about which people have a very strong conviction. One of these is to prepare for something of significance, almost always bad, to occur in the month of August. Bne IntelliNews
MACRO ADVISORY: Russia’s August Angst
There are some annual rituals in Russia about which people have a very strong conviction. One of these is to prepare for something of significance, almost always bad, to occur in the month of August.
dlvr.it
August 1, 2025 at 4:40 PM
My boss's annual "August is the cruellest month" piece, this must be the 25th or 26th by now
This is sad news - a fantastic artist. I will never forget his "H.G." exhibition, and "Einstein on the Beach" was formative. An Artist with a capital A
Le metteur en scène Robert Wilson est mort
Le metteur en scène Robert Wilson est mort
Celui qui a fait exploser l’idée de spectacle avec « Le Regard du sourd », créé en 1970, et renouvelé la conception de l’opéra grâce à « Einstein on the Beach » est mort le 31 juillet, à l’âge de 83 ans. L’artiste mythique laisse une œuvre indissociable de sa vie.
www.lemonde.fr
July 31, 2025 at 6:49 PM
This is sad news - a fantastic artist. I will never forget his "H.G." exhibition, and "Einstein on the Beach" was formative. An Artist with a capital A
Reposted by Tom Adshead
Chloe Kelly’s goal celebration face is the exact look my sister used to give me behind our mum’s back when I was being told off
July 23, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Chloe Kelly’s goal celebration face is the exact look my sister used to give me behind our mum’s back when I was being told off
HMG and the Royal Family should assign Prince Andrew to be Trump's main escort during his time in the UK
I mean, okay, but just between us, none of those guys are President of the United States, who campaigned in part on allegations of public sexual misconduct and releasing the Epstein files.
Trump: You should focus on Clinton. You should focus on the president of Harvard, the former president of Harvard. You should focus on some of the hedge fund guys. I will give you a list. These guys lived with Jeffrey Epstein. I sure as hell didn’t
July 25, 2025 at 2:49 PM
HMG and the Royal Family should assign Prince Andrew to be Trump's main escort during his time in the UK
Dill is so ubiquitous in Russia that I developed a reflex of asking that any dish with chips be served without dill on the chips (без укропа), which would probably be interpreted as a political stance, post-2022
genuinely think dill is the most vile herb out there and yet i accidentally bought a quiche that is overpoweringly flavoured with it. i need a dill warning
July 18, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Dill is so ubiquitous in Russia that I developed a reflex of asking that any dish with chips be served without dill on the chips (без укропа), which would probably be interpreted as a political stance, post-2022
Reposted by Tom Adshead
Rümeysa Öztürk describes the library in the prison where she was held for 45 days for co-authoring an op-ed
July 17, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Rümeysa Öztürk describes the library in the prison where she was held for 45 days for co-authoring an op-ed
Reposted by Tom Adshead
Uk political leadership for 20 years. i.imgflip.com/a0f05x.jpg
July 16, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Uk political leadership for 20 years. i.imgflip.com/a0f05x.jpg