Tom Adshead
@tomadshead.bsky.social
Director of Research at Macro-Advisory Ltd. Eurasian economics and politics
If I were the Swiss, I would be looking for a way to fold my USD300 bln in treasuries into that total. Plus whatever the various Swiss multinationals have already built. We all already know that statistics is not these people's strong point
November 14, 2025 at 2:26 PM
If I were the Swiss, I would be looking for a way to fold my USD300 bln in treasuries into that total. Plus whatever the various Swiss multinationals have already built. We all already know that statistics is not these people's strong point
I assume there is a high overlap between people who are long crypto and those who are YOLO-ing high beta AI stocks
November 14, 2025 at 11:52 AM
I assume there is a high overlap between people who are long crypto and those who are YOLO-ing high beta AI stocks
won't take a position. They could have rolled back anti-Ivanishvili but they haven't. The Georgia Dream government has written slavish letters but got nothing. At least the Trump administration recognises the GD government, which Biden didn't. Possibly the Trump focus in the Caucaus is TRIPP 4/4
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
won't take a position. They could have rolled back anti-Ivanishvili but they haven't. The Georgia Dream government has written slavish letters but got nothing. At least the Trump administration recognises the GD government, which Biden didn't. Possibly the Trump focus in the Caucaus is TRIPP 4/4
The Trump administration has not said anything direct about Georgia (that I could find). The State Department has cherry-picked JD Vance's speeches to support the pre-Trump view, but I've not seen a direct statement by a senior Trump figure. It's actually interesting that the Trump team 3/n
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
The Trump administration has not said anything direct about Georgia (that I could find). The State Department has cherry-picked JD Vance's speeches to support the pre-Trump view, but I've not seen a direct statement by a senior Trump figure. It's actually interesting that the Trump team 3/n
Previously the politically correct view has been that we should unquestioningly back the opposition (who are largely Western funded). I get that the opposition's views are closer to the political mainstream in Brussels and Washington, but not necessarily to Europe and the US as a whole. 2/n
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Previously the politically correct view has been that we should unquestioningly back the opposition (who are largely Western funded). I get that the opposition's views are closer to the political mainstream in Brussels and Washington, but not necessarily to Europe and the US as a whole. 2/n
My read is that it's the theory that Trump was the main informant against Epstein
November 12, 2025 at 4:22 PM
My read is that it's the theory that Trump was the main informant against Epstein
Yes, the College's concert hall (New Hall) is closer to the marshes and is also built on a raft (I think it's concrete)
November 12, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Yes, the College's concert hall (New Hall) is closer to the marshes and is also built on a raft (I think it's concrete)
I lean to the latter view, as I think that historically the most successful sanctions policy was that on apartheid-era South Africa. Lots of Russia opposition figures think otherwise, I don't have strong arguments against this. But for an "expert" to be surprised at Russians in Europe is idiocy 5/5
November 8, 2025 at 8:47 AM
I lean to the latter view, as I think that historically the most successful sanctions policy was that on apartheid-era South Africa. Lots of Russia opposition figures think otherwise, I don't have strong arguments against this. But for an "expert" to be surprised at Russians in Europe is idiocy 5/5
No one can decide whether you should let Russians travel to Europe, and emigrate, to create a brain drain, and not "punish the middle class" or have a blanket ban on Russians travelling to Europe, to drive home the fact that their government has made them pariahs. 4/n
November 8, 2025 at 8:47 AM
No one can decide whether you should let Russians travel to Europe, and emigrate, to create a brain drain, and not "punish the middle class" or have a blanket ban on Russians travelling to Europe, to drive home the fact that their government has made them pariahs. 4/n
European embassies have been handing out multi-entry multi-year Schengen visas to Russians since 2022, so perhaps you should ask your own allies what they think about that. If he followed Russian celebrity Instagram he would be all too aware that the war has not stopped people travelling 3/n
November 8, 2025 at 8:47 AM
European embassies have been handing out multi-entry multi-year Schengen visas to Russians since 2022, so perhaps you should ask your own allies what they think about that. If he followed Russian celebrity Instagram he would be all too aware that the war has not stopped people travelling 3/n
Which would allow you to travel in Europe. If you watched TV in those countries, especially "Oryol ili Reshka" you would know what I mean. (b) If you had a lot of Russian friends you would know that many of them have emigrated over the last 20 years (c) you would also know that 2/n
November 8, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Which would allow you to travel in Europe. If you watched TV in those countries, especially "Oryol ili Reshka" you would know what I mean. (b) If you had a lot of Russian friends you would know that many of them have emigrated over the last 20 years (c) you would also know that 2/n
For what it's worth, the Russian parliamentarians do this too
November 6, 2025 at 4:23 PM
For what it's worth, the Russian parliamentarians do this too
Which all means in the longer term that the Russian market will likely pivot towards Chinese auto manufacturers, although we may see some Western companies choosing to set up in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan and selling into Russia from there. 5/5
November 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Which all means in the longer term that the Russian market will likely pivot towards Chinese auto manufacturers, although we may see some Western companies choosing to set up in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan and selling into Russia from there. 5/5
These Mazdas have some local contents, but the highest value components will be imported, and may fall foul of dual-use restrictions which will likely persist for a long time. Additionally Mazda's banks are likely to create friction even for non-sanctioned transactions. 4/n
November 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
These Mazdas have some local contents, but the highest value components will be imported, and may fall foul of dual-use restrictions which will likely persist for a long time. Additionally Mazda's banks are likely to create friction even for non-sanctioned transactions. 4/n
Subsequent Russian legislation has made it questionable whether even 3-yr buyback clauses can be enforced. This sort of JV is going to be hard to implement even when there is a peace deal, as there are likely to be residual sanctions and logistics problems. 3/n
November 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Subsequent Russian legislation has made it questionable whether even 3-yr buyback clauses can be enforced. This sort of JV is going to be hard to implement even when there is a peace deal, as there are likely to be residual sanctions and logistics problems. 3/n
Most investors did nothing for 6 months after the attack on Ukraine in late Feb 2022. By late 2022 it was clear that there would be no peace, so many started making plans to leave. Mazda's decision to sell to local partners with a buyback clause was a common choice, as was the 3-year tenor 2/n
Mazda is first foreign automaker to lose buyback rights in Russian JV, ex-partner says
Japan's Mazda Motor has lost the right to buy back its 50% stake in a car-manufacturing joint venture in Russia after failing to exercise an option to do so, its former Russian partner Sollers told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Most investors did nothing for 6 months after the attack on Ukraine in late Feb 2022. By late 2022 it was clear that there would be no peace, so many started making plans to leave. Mazda's decision to sell to local partners with a buyback clause was a common choice, as was the 3-year tenor 2/n
Thank you for bringing the Apothecary Diaries to my attention
November 3, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Thank you for bringing the Apothecary Diaries to my attention
“If it has to happen, baby, do you want to know?”
November 1, 2025 at 6:17 PM
“If it has to happen, baby, do you want to know?”
But not with this, www.tiktok.com/@nate.b.jone...
which claims they are freeing cash to buy GPUs. I don't buy it, as capex and headcount must be different buckets. Thanks for your analysis, so far it seems GOOG and AMZN are the big winners from this season. I have cash to deploy from selling NVDA...
which claims they are freeing cash to buy GPUs. I don't buy it, as capex and headcount must be different buckets. Thanks for your analysis, so far it seems GOOG and AMZN are the big winners from this season. I have cash to deploy from selling NVDA...
Almost no one is saying what really happened #ai #learn #learnontiktok #chatgpt #news
TikTok video by Nate
www.tiktok.com
October 31, 2025 at 1:51 PM
But not with this, www.tiktok.com/@nate.b.jone...
which claims they are freeing cash to buy GPUs. I don't buy it, as capex and headcount must be different buckets. Thanks for your analysis, so far it seems GOOG and AMZN are the big winners from this season. I have cash to deploy from selling NVDA...
which claims they are freeing cash to buy GPUs. I don't buy it, as capex and headcount must be different buckets. Thanks for your analysis, so far it seems GOOG and AMZN are the big winners from this season. I have cash to deploy from selling NVDA...
Thanks. That is consistent with this: www.aboutamazon.com/news/company....
Staying nimble and continuing to strengthen our organizations
The following message was shared with Amazon employees earlier today.
www.aboutamazon.com
October 31, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Thanks. That is consistent with this: www.aboutamazon.com/news/company....