Rachel Bernhard
@rivb.bsky.social
Associate Professor in Politics, Nuffield College, Oxford.
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
How about we shut down the government for this very popular and specific goal and then, hear me out, we hold out for like a month and a half and then, ok this part is important, after a watershed election where we ran the table, ONLY THEN, fold and don't get the one thing we said we wanted.
November 10, 2025 at 2:31 AM
How about we shut down the government for this very popular and specific goal and then, hear me out, we hold out for like a month and a half and then, ok this part is important, after a watershed election where we ran the table, ONLY THEN, fold and don't get the one thing we said we wanted.
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
They caved in March so they could get a better deal now. They’re caving now so they can get a better deal in some indeterminate future. The better deal is always just beyond their reach, but continuing to cave will get them there. And if you don’t agree with that, you don’t understand Politics,
November 10, 2025 at 2:44 AM
They caved in March so they could get a better deal now. They’re caving now so they can get a better deal in some indeterminate future. The better deal is always just beyond their reach, but continuing to cave will get them there. And if you don’t agree with that, you don’t understand Politics,
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
I’m not going to take this sitting down, because Arizona doesn’t deserve that.
Swear me in, Speaker Johnson!
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/o...
Swear me in, Speaker Johnson!
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/o...
Opinion | Adelita Grijalva Just Wants to Get to Work. The House Speaker Won’t Let Her.
www.nytimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:59 PM
I’m not going to take this sitting down, because Arizona doesn’t deserve that.
Swear me in, Speaker Johnson!
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/o...
Swear me in, Speaker Johnson!
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/o...
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands
The short documentary “Rovina’s Choice” tells the story of what goes when aid goes.
newyorkermag.visitlink.me
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
We have just published the call for the Nuffield Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Politics. These are 3-year fully-funded postdocs that will allow you to focus on your research in a great academic environment. (And with excellent food)
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Politics - Nuffield College Oxford University
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 1:27 PM
We have just published the call for the Nuffield Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Politics. These are 3-year fully-funded postdocs that will allow you to focus on your research in a great academic environment. (And with excellent food)
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
The ceramics of Acoma artist Barbara Cerno, who was born in Acoma Pueblo in 1959 #WomensArt
November 6, 2025 at 5:02 AM
The ceramics of Acoma artist Barbara Cerno, who was born in Acoma Pueblo in 1959 #WomensArt
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
This person took this when they called the race
November 5, 2025 at 6:07 AM
This person took this when they called the race
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
These descriptors should be numbingly familiar for anyone who's read any Elie Wiesel, Miklos Nyiszli, Primo Levi, Walter Ciszek, Solzhenitsyn and any other "Never Again" type eyewitness literature
Cells inside the facility are being operated significantly above capacity, with people so crammed into cells that even extending your legs isn't possible and people have to sleep on the floor crammed in like sardines.
Here's one of many testimonies about the overcrowding.
Here's one of many testimonies about the overcrowding.
November 4, 2025 at 11:02 PM
These descriptors should be numbingly familiar for anyone who's read any Elie Wiesel, Miklos Nyiszli, Primo Levi, Walter Ciszek, Solzhenitsyn and any other "Never Again" type eyewitness literature
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
My office captured several stills from today’s
@dhsgov.govmirrors.com video supporting Gregory Bovino. The imagery is deeply troubling; it evokes another era when masked government agents rounded up so-called “undesirables" (I’m sure that’s just a coincidence).
@dhsgov.govmirrors.com video supporting Gregory Bovino. The imagery is deeply troubling; it evokes another era when masked government agents rounded up so-called “undesirables" (I’m sure that’s just a coincidence).
October 29, 2025 at 3:02 PM
My office captured several stills from today’s
@dhsgov.govmirrors.com video supporting Gregory Bovino. The imagery is deeply troubling; it evokes another era when masked government agents rounded up so-called “undesirables" (I’m sure that’s just a coincidence).
@dhsgov.govmirrors.com video supporting Gregory Bovino. The imagery is deeply troubling; it evokes another era when masked government agents rounded up so-called “undesirables" (I’m sure that’s just a coincidence).
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
World Health Organization: "On 28 October, six health workers, four doctors, a nurse and a pharmacist, were abducted...On the same day, more than 460 patients and their companions were reportedly shot and killed in the hospital."
www.npr.org/2025/10/30/n...
www.npr.org/2025/10/30/n...
Hundreds killed in Darfur hospital massacre, 'hero' doctors abducted
The last hospital in Darfur's el-Fasher has been destroyed by paramilitaries — hundreds of patients killed and doctors taken.
www.npr.org
October 31, 2025 at 10:14 AM
World Health Organization: "On 28 October, six health workers, four doctors, a nurse and a pharmacist, were abducted...On the same day, more than 460 patients and their companions were reportedly shot and killed in the hospital."
www.npr.org/2025/10/30/n...
www.npr.org/2025/10/30/n...
Last time I looked (a few years ago), I couldn’t find a high-quality poll (ANES, Pew, etc.) in which more than 86% of Americans could accurately name their *current* president—and that likely overstates knowledge as people who are less informed are less likely to respond to polls in the first place.
I always get drawn back to Al Gore telling voters that he’d only raise taxes on the top 1% and then after the election a poll showed that something like 20% of voters thought they were in the top 1% and another 20% thought they would be in the next five years. Just a total tragic disconnect.
Maaaaan, this. So much this. Every time there's any kind of actual in-depth survey we find that the American people are *abysmally* ignorant about even the most basic political facts, but the pundit class just immediately forgets & proceeds with political analysis based on subtle policy differences.
October 30, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Last time I looked (a few years ago), I couldn’t find a high-quality poll (ANES, Pew, etc.) in which more than 86% of Americans could accurately name their *current* president—and that likely overstates knowledge as people who are less informed are less likely to respond to polls in the first place.
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
Trump Org’s income in the first half of 2024 was $51 million.
In the first half of 2025 it rose to $864 million.
A massive percentage came from foreigners.
It should be the biggest scandal in the history of American politics.
But few even care. www.reuters.com/investigatio...
In the first half of 2025 it rose to $864 million.
A massive percentage came from foreigners.
It should be the biggest scandal in the history of American politics.
But few even care. www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Inside the Trump family’s global crypto cash machine
The U.S. president’s family raked in more than $800 million from sales of crypto assets in the first half of 2025 alone, a Reuters examination found, on top of potentially billions more in unrealized “on paper” gains. Much of that cash came from foreign sources as Donald Trump's sons touted their business on an international investor roadshow.
www.reuters.com
October 28, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Trump Org’s income in the first half of 2024 was $51 million.
In the first half of 2025 it rose to $864 million.
A massive percentage came from foreigners.
It should be the biggest scandal in the history of American politics.
But few even care. www.reuters.com/investigatio...
In the first half of 2025 it rose to $864 million.
A massive percentage came from foreigners.
It should be the biggest scandal in the history of American politics.
But few even care. www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
A reminder that the UK’s ban on LGBT people serving in the armed forces was only lifted after a judgment from the European Court of Human Rights.
🔗 www.bbc.com/news/article... via www.bbcnews.com
#ECHR #OurRightsAndFreedoms #Article8 #PrivateLife #MeddlingForeignCourt #CreditWhereItsDue
🔗 www.bbc.com/news/article... via www.bbcnews.com
#ECHR #OurRightsAndFreedoms #Article8 #PrivateLife #MeddlingForeignCourt #CreditWhereItsDue
King unveils new memorial to LGBT veterans after gay ban campaign
A memorial is unveiled dedicated to gay military personnel and to those who served during the armed forces gay ban.
www.bbc.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:09 AM
A reminder that the UK’s ban on LGBT people serving in the armed forces was only lifted after a judgment from the European Court of Human Rights.
🔗 www.bbc.com/news/article... via www.bbcnews.com
#ECHR #OurRightsAndFreedoms #Article8 #PrivateLife #MeddlingForeignCourt #CreditWhereItsDue
🔗 www.bbc.com/news/article... via www.bbcnews.com
#ECHR #OurRightsAndFreedoms #Article8 #PrivateLife #MeddlingForeignCourt #CreditWhereItsDue
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
At least 49 family members and colleagues of Afghans affected by the MoD’s mass data breach have been killed, according to on-the-ground research into 350 affected people
submitted to the Commons defence select committee www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
submitted to the Commons defence select committee www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
At least 49 relatives and colleagues of Afghans in data leak have been killed, study suggests
Research also finds 200 of 231 people notified by MoD of breach reported threats to themselves or families
www.theguardian.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:39 AM
At least 49 family members and colleagues of Afghans affected by the MoD’s mass data breach have been killed, according to on-the-ground research into 350 affected people
submitted to the Commons defence select committee www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
submitted to the Commons defence select committee www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
What did people do before SNAP?”
They died.
Healthcare, vaccines, disability support, education & food assistance are vital to our survival.
They’re why the average lifespan isn’t 35 anymore
The mark of a good & decent society is whether it sees the value in helping others.
They died.
Healthcare, vaccines, disability support, education & food assistance are vital to our survival.
They’re why the average lifespan isn’t 35 anymore
The mark of a good & decent society is whether it sees the value in helping others.
October 28, 2025 at 4:53 AM
What did people do before SNAP?”
They died.
Healthcare, vaccines, disability support, education & food assistance are vital to our survival.
They’re why the average lifespan isn’t 35 anymore
The mark of a good & decent society is whether it sees the value in helping others.
They died.
Healthcare, vaccines, disability support, education & food assistance are vital to our survival.
They’re why the average lifespan isn’t 35 anymore
The mark of a good & decent society is whether it sees the value in helping others.
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
Today's "One First" explains why Stephen Miller is wrong that ICE officers have "federal immunity" from prosecution for all actions they take in their official duties, and that anyone attempting to prosecute them is committing a felony.
Supremacy Clause immunity is a thing, but it's *not* absolute:
Supremacy Clause immunity is a thing, but it's *not* absolute:
186. When Can States Prosecute Federal Officers?
Stephen Miller claims that ICE officers have "immunity" for anything they do while enforcing immigration law. Even as an argument about *state* criminal prosecutions, that claim is overstated at best.
www.stevevladeck.com
October 27, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Today's "One First" explains why Stephen Miller is wrong that ICE officers have "federal immunity" from prosecution for all actions they take in their official duties, and that anyone attempting to prosecute them is committing a felony.
Supremacy Clause immunity is a thing, but it's *not* absolute:
Supremacy Clause immunity is a thing, but it's *not* absolute:
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
I have a very bad feeling about this...
October 27, 2025 at 4:51 PM
I have a very bad feeling about this...
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
Turley letter to Lam, as posted on X
October 25, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Turley letter to Lam, as posted on X
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
Mayor Johnson is cooking
October 25, 2025 at 4:59 AM
Mayor Johnson is cooking
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
NYT pushed its “Dems must go moderate” take again yesterday. In a new piece out today, @adambonica.bsky.social shows even more clearly why the data don’t support it. It also shows what a skilled empiricist and teacher Adam is.
Very proud of my pal’s public work.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Very proud of my pal’s public work.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion
After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.
open.substack.com
October 24, 2025 at 2:22 PM
NYT pushed its “Dems must go moderate” take again yesterday. In a new piece out today, @adambonica.bsky.social shows even more clearly why the data don’t support it. It also shows what a skilled empiricist and teacher Adam is.
Very proud of my pal’s public work.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Very proud of my pal’s public work.
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?
October 21, 2025 at 10:47 AM
To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
Incredibly minor point in the grand scheme of the horror of this policy, but this would mean that many women with ILR would be unable to go on maternity leave unless they had a very high salary or an amazing employer package.
The Conservatives have drafted the legislation.
ANY one of the conditions being met leads to ILR being revoked.
If annual income falls below £38,700 for six months (for any reason at all)
The Secretary of State would also have the powers add whatever further conditions they want.
ANY one of the conditions being met leads to ILR being revoked.
If annual income falls below £38,700 for six months (for any reason at all)
The Secretary of State would also have the powers add whatever further conditions they want.
October 22, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Incredibly minor point in the grand scheme of the horror of this policy, but this would mean that many women with ILR would be unable to go on maternity leave unless they had a very high salary or an amazing employer package.
Reposted by Rachel Bernhard
The Conservatives have drafted the legislation.
ANY one of the conditions being met leads to ILR being revoked.
If annual income falls below £38,700 for six months (for any reason at all)
The Secretary of State would also have the powers add whatever further conditions they want.
ANY one of the conditions being met leads to ILR being revoked.
If annual income falls below £38,700 for six months (for any reason at all)
The Secretary of State would also have the powers add whatever further conditions they want.
October 21, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The Conservatives have drafted the legislation.
ANY one of the conditions being met leads to ILR being revoked.
If annual income falls below £38,700 for six months (for any reason at all)
The Secretary of State would also have the powers add whatever further conditions they want.
ANY one of the conditions being met leads to ILR being revoked.
If annual income falls below £38,700 for six months (for any reason at all)
The Secretary of State would also have the powers add whatever further conditions they want.
Hurts too much to write a comment.
“.. They are the asylum seekers, the rule followers. They go into the federal building holding papers .. hoping for a measure of due process. Some leave the courthouse with a hearing date set months or years from now. Others disappear into ICE’s prison system.”
@nymag.com
nymag.com/intelligence...
@nymag.com
nymag.com/intelligence...
October 21, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Hurts too much to write a comment.