@politikfelix.bsky.social
International Relations, German Politics, EU Affairs. Usual caveats. He/him
Reposted
📢 must-read new paper! 👇
🚨NEW PAPER🚨
We all know the 2022 energy price shock fueled the cost of living crisis. It also caused a profit bonanza for the very rich. We show the US reaped the largest profits ($377bn) of any country. 50% went to the richest 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
We all know the 2022 energy price shock fueled the cost of living crisis. It also caused a profit bonanza for the very rich. We show the US reaped the largest profits ($377bn) of any country. 50% went to the richest 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
October 8, 2025 at 5:28 PM
📢 must-read new paper! 👇
Reposted
🧵 As I posted the other day, I can't wait for the foreign policy community to argue over the merits of prioritizing 'defense of the homeland.'
October 2, 2025 at 10:29 PM
🧵 As I posted the other day, I can't wait for the foreign policy community to argue over the merits of prioritizing 'defense of the homeland.'
Reposted
I don't know whether this is due to some cultural difference or history but a large number of Americans genuinely seem to believe that their country couldn't possibly turn into a dictatorship. It's absurd to see from abroad because you can quite literally watch as Trump destroys democracy
September 22, 2025 at 10:21 AM
I don't know whether this is due to some cultural difference or history but a large number of Americans genuinely seem to believe that their country couldn't possibly turn into a dictatorship. It's absurd to see from abroad because you can quite literally watch as Trump destroys democracy
Reposted
Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7
September 10, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7
Reposted
The best outcome for Putin is a European force and an ill defined US backstop. US won't go to war with RF if those troops are attacked. Therefore, Putin has the flexibility to test the force and he will do it early to unsettle Europeans and prevent reinforcement. He will also do it on Trump's watch
Putin would have the opportunity to attack NATO forces without actually invading NATO territory and triggering Article 5 (ie war with America).
Perhaps if Europe was ready for war it could deter a Russian attack… but Europe very much isn’t ready for war. Seems like a very bad idea until then. 🤷♂️
Perhaps if Europe was ready for war it could deter a Russian attack… but Europe very much isn’t ready for war. Seems like a very bad idea until then. 🤷♂️
August 21, 2025 at 12:23 PM
The best outcome for Putin is a European force and an ill defined US backstop. US won't go to war with RF if those troops are attacked. Therefore, Putin has the flexibility to test the force and he will do it early to unsettle Europeans and prevent reinforcement. He will also do it on Trump's watch
Reposted
The upcoming Trump-Putin talks in Alaska have essentially no chance of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Simply "failing" to end the war would be the relatively good scenario. There are far deeper consequences to these talks that could reshape the conflict and US diplomacy for the worse. (1/9)
August 12, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The upcoming Trump-Putin talks in Alaska have essentially no chance of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Simply "failing" to end the war would be the relatively good scenario. There are far deeper consequences to these talks that could reshape the conflict and US diplomacy for the worse. (1/9)
Reposted
On Friday, I argued in @foreignpolicy.com that Trump admin claims it had set Iran back by "years" were true but disingenuous.
The same day, the normally excellent David Ignatius amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narrative.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Let's take a look... (1/n)
The same day, the normally excellent David Ignatius amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narrative.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Let's take a look... (1/n)
Opinion | The 12 days that turned back the clock on Iran’s nuclear program
Israeli and American assessments agree Tehran’s infrastructure to finish a bomb is shattered.
www.washingtonpost.com
July 28, 2025 at 2:42 PM
On Friday, I argued in @foreignpolicy.com that Trump admin claims it had set Iran back by "years" were true but disingenuous.
The same day, the normally excellent David Ignatius amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narrative.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Let's take a look... (1/n)
The same day, the normally excellent David Ignatius amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narrative.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Let's take a look... (1/n)
Reposted
It seems that the Commission will indeed propose one big fund to cover all existing structural funds and the CAP and to organise the payout from this fund via a single national plan That would mean a huge departure from how the EU budget and the MFF negotiations have worked so far.
Here is why:
Here is why:
July 14, 2025 at 3:51 PM
It seems that the Commission will indeed propose one big fund to cover all existing structural funds and the CAP and to organise the payout from this fund via a single national plan That would mean a huge departure from how the EU budget and the MFF negotiations have worked so far.
Here is why:
Here is why:
Reposted
New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
July 7, 2025 at 9:50 AM
New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
Reposted
Reposted
Die Bombe nicht zu bauen, war ein politische Entscheidung im Iran. Weil die Drohung mit dem Bau dienlicher war. Das ist jetzt vorbei. Sollte, wonach es aussieht, die technische Möglichkeit bestehen, dann stehen jetzt alle Zeichen auf breakout. JCPOA war nicht perfekt. Aber es war besser als all das.
June 23, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Die Bombe nicht zu bauen, war ein politische Entscheidung im Iran. Weil die Drohung mit dem Bau dienlicher war. Das ist jetzt vorbei. Sollte, wonach es aussieht, die technische Möglichkeit bestehen, dann stehen jetzt alle Zeichen auf breakout. JCPOA war nicht perfekt. Aber es war besser als all das.
Reposted
"Separately, a senior U.S. official who asked for anonymity acknowledged that the B-2 attack on the Fordo site did not destroy the heavily fortified facility but severely damaged it." www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
Update from Eric Schmitt
www.nytimes.com
June 22, 2025 at 2:14 PM
"Separately, a senior U.S. official who asked for anonymity acknowledged that the B-2 attack on the Fordo site did not destroy the heavily fortified facility but severely damaged it." www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...
Reposted
Notes from the just concluded Pentagon briefing including the chairman joint chiefs and Pete Hegseth.
June 22, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Notes from the just concluded Pentagon briefing including the chairman joint chiefs and Pete Hegseth.
Reposted
Interesting contrast between POTUS claims of massive military success vs. Caine comments that it will take time to do full battle damage assessment. Note: it can be true both that B2s executed mission flawlessly AND that we don't actually know how much damage this does to Iran's nuclear program.
June 22, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Interesting contrast between POTUS claims of massive military success vs. Caine comments that it will take time to do full battle damage assessment. Note: it can be true both that B2s executed mission flawlessly AND that we don't actually know how much damage this does to Iran's nuclear program.
Reposted
References to "tactical" nuclear weapons in this otherwise great @theguardian.com story by @hugolowell.bsky.social are misleading. The US would drop a strategic B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator with a yield of 300 or 400 kilotons. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 21 kt.
June 20, 2025 at 10:56 AM
References to "tactical" nuclear weapons in this otherwise great @theguardian.com story by @hugolowell.bsky.social are misleading. The US would drop a strategic B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator with a yield of 300 or 400 kilotons. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 21 kt.
Reposted
I remember armscontrolwonk in the first Trump admin, on his podcast, said that there's no failsafe for Trump using nukes - because the failsafe is electing a 'normal' person.
That stuck with me.
That stuck with me.
June 20, 2025 at 10:12 PM
I remember armscontrolwonk in the first Trump admin, on his podcast, said that there's no failsafe for Trump using nukes - because the failsafe is electing a 'normal' person.
That stuck with me.
That stuck with me.
Reposted
Israel & Iran; UK’s nuclear deterrent; Moscow & escalation in the Middle East; & nuclear & conventional deterrence in Europe in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social, on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10
June 19, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Israel & Iran; UK’s nuclear deterrent; Moscow & escalation in the Middle East; & nuclear & conventional deterrence in Europe in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social, on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10
Reposted
Again, Israel's military operation is about regime change and not eliminating the nuclear program. It's called "Rising Lion" not "Counterproliferation Gazelle." If the regime falls, then it will be an enormous success.
The Israeli Air Force has bombed the IRIB building housing the Iranian state television channel. During a live broadcast, an air strike on the building was recorded.
June 16, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Again, Israel's military operation is about regime change and not eliminating the nuclear program. It's called "Rising Lion" not "Counterproliferation Gazelle." If the regime falls, then it will be an enormous success.
Reposted
Buried in this NYT piece: claim that US intel supported the Israeli strikes. "Trump chose a middle course, offering Israel as-yet undisclosed support from the U.S. intelligence community to carry out its attack and then turning up the pressure on Tehran" www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/u...
How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel
www.nytimes.com
June 17, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Buried in this NYT piece: claim that US intel supported the Israeli strikes. "Trump chose a middle course, offering Israel as-yet undisclosed support from the U.S. intelligence community to carry out its attack and then turning up the pressure on Tehran" www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/u...
Reposted
Vieles spricht für ein baldiges erneutes Wahldrama in Frankreich. Warum?
Ein paar Erklärungen zu den Entwicklungen in den letzten Monaten, und warum es für die Regierung schnell ernst werden könnte. 🧵
Ein paar Erklärungen zu den Entwicklungen in den letzten Monaten, und warum es für die Regierung schnell ernst werden könnte. 🧵
May 15, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Vieles spricht für ein baldiges erneutes Wahldrama in Frankreich. Warum?
Ein paar Erklärungen zu den Entwicklungen in den letzten Monaten, und warum es für die Regierung schnell ernst werden könnte. 🧵
Ein paar Erklärungen zu den Entwicklungen in den letzten Monaten, und warum es für die Regierung schnell ernst werden könnte. 🧵
Reposted
"The Americans have the bombs on planes in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Turkey," Macron said. "We are ready to open this discussion."
"I will define the framework in a very specific way in the weeks and months to come," he said.
"I will define the framework in a very specific way in the weeks and months to come," he said.
"French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday that he was open to discussing the potential deployment of his country's nuclear weapons elsewhere in Europe." DW
www.dw.com/en/macron-op...
www.dw.com/en/macron-op...
Macron open to deploying French nuclear weapons in Europe – DW – 05/14/2025
French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that any shared nuclear deterrence would not come at the expense of France's own defense capabilities.
www.dw.com
May 14, 2025 at 5:53 AM
"The Americans have the bombs on planes in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Turkey," Macron said. "We are ready to open this discussion."
"I will define the framework in a very specific way in the weeks and months to come," he said.
"I will define the framework in a very specific way in the weeks and months to come," he said.
Reposted
Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>
May 10, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>
Reposted
Things we have not (yet) seen in this crisis:
- Fighter jets crossing the border/LoC
- Use of ground-based dual-capable missiles
- Nuclear signalling of a sort we previously saw in in 1990 & 1999 (at least not publicly)
- Large-scale mobilisation of ground forces, as in 2001/02
- Fighter jets crossing the border/LoC
- Use of ground-based dual-capable missiles
- Nuclear signalling of a sort we previously saw in in 1990 & 1999 (at least not publicly)
- Large-scale mobilisation of ground forces, as in 2001/02
May 9, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Things we have not (yet) seen in this crisis:
- Fighter jets crossing the border/LoC
- Use of ground-based dual-capable missiles
- Nuclear signalling of a sort we previously saw in in 1990 & 1999 (at least not publicly)
- Large-scale mobilisation of ground forces, as in 2001/02
- Fighter jets crossing the border/LoC
- Use of ground-based dual-capable missiles
- Nuclear signalling of a sort we previously saw in in 1990 & 1999 (at least not publicly)
- Large-scale mobilisation of ground forces, as in 2001/02
Reposted
unpopular opinion: das war zwar eine saudumme und komplett überflüssige aktion, die in kritischen zeiten das völlig falsche signal gesendet hat, ABER...: dann hat's halt einen zweiten wahlgang gebraucht. dafür steht das so im GG.
staatskrise sieht jedenfalls anders aus.
staatskrise sieht so aus 👇
staatskrise sieht jedenfalls anders aus.
staatskrise sieht so aus 👇
May 6, 2025 at 2:21 PM
unpopular opinion: das war zwar eine saudumme und komplett überflüssige aktion, die in kritischen zeiten das völlig falsche signal gesendet hat, ABER...: dann hat's halt einen zweiten wahlgang gebraucht. dafür steht das so im GG.
staatskrise sieht jedenfalls anders aus.
staatskrise sieht so aus 👇
staatskrise sieht jedenfalls anders aus.
staatskrise sieht so aus 👇