Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
@olyaoliker.bsky.social
Europe & Central Asia Director @crisisgroup.org / Feminist / Migrant / ❤️ punk rock / Opinions own / Endorsements clearly marked / https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/olga-oliker
Political science
84%
Economics
11%
Now also available in Armenian!
Welcoming my brilliant colleague @alissadecarbonnel.bsky.social to Bluesky. Follow her for Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye, the South Caucasus, Western Balkans, and European security and related issues write large. You won't regret it.
Yeah, well
Wondering if anyone has yet added possible Ukrainian contributions to the defense of Greenland to the Coalition of the Willing meeting agenda
Talk about "hold my beer"
Via @mikeeckel.bsky.social: "Fascinating that the Defense Ministry decided to video (and publish) its officials giving U.S. defense attaches flight/technical data allegedly taken from a Ukrainian drone downed over Novgorod region; allegedly attacking a Putin residence." x.com/i/status/200...
Look at their faces & body language. Apparently not how any of these men wanted to start their year.
Reposted by Olga Oliker
Via @mikeeckel.bsky.social: "Fascinating that the Defense Ministry decided to video (and publish) its officials giving U.S. defense attaches flight/technical data allegedly taken from a Ukrainian drone downed over Novgorod region; allegedly attacking a Putin residence." x.com/i/status/200...
all meaning has collapsed in our post-literate society and i wrote a bunch of useless, useless words about it. read it if you, like me, are one of a diminishing minority who still reads www.theverge.com/policy/84960...
The year politics became brainrot
You don’t bring a persuasive argument to a gunfight.
www.theverge.com
So depressing. Also, so good. I mean, for those of us still into words. Happy New Year, folks.
The year politics became brainrot
You don’t bring a persuasive argument to a gunfight.
www.theverge.com
all meaning has collapsed in our post-literate society and i wrote a bunch of useless, useless words about it. read it if you, like me, are one of a diminishing minority who still reads www.theverge.com/policy/84960...
Reposted by Olga Oliker, Caroline Krafft
NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
Karabakh Refugees in Armenia | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Alissa speak with Crisis Group expert Joshua Kucera about the challenges facing refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia after Azerbaijan regained the territory...
www.crisisgroup.org
Also check out our War & Peace podcast, posted last week, on the same topics, with Josh, Alissa de Carbonnel, & yours truly.
As Armenia Strives for Peace, Karabakh Refugees in Danger of Getting Left Behind | International Crisis Group
Armenia’s struggle to integrate over 100,000 refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh when Azerbaijan seized back control of the territory in 2023 risks undermining the country’s efforts to unite society be...
www.crisisgroup.org
How might refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh affect Armenian politics and the peace process with Azerbaijan in months and years to come? In a new @crisisgroup.org commentary, @joshuakucera.bsky.social explores how refugees live today, their concerns, government policy, & what it might mean. 1/2
A Frozen Conflict: The Dilemmas of Seizing Russia’s Money for Ukraine | International Crisis Group
Several countries froze Russian assets after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but legal and economic hurdles make it hard to confiscate these funds to support Kyiv. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explai...
www.crisisgroup.org
Frozen asset use is fraught, but debate distracts from real issue: EU & members are helping Ukraine because it's in their own security interests. Decision to commit to further aid but not to underwrite it with frozen Russian assets is Brussels recognizing lack of easy answers, but moving forward.
A Three Body Problem: NATO, Russia and the Politics of Air Incursions : DeepCuts
The Deep Cuts Project analyses the potential for US-Russian nuclear arms control under adversarial conditions.
deepcuts.org
Russian aircraft over NATO members' skies are not new. But with full-scale war raging in Ukraine & a volatile information environment, policymakers must do better at identifying what's up there & responding appropriately. @alxgraef.bsky.social & I explain for the @deepcutsproject.bsky.social
Karabakh Refugees in Armenia | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Alissa speak with Crisis Group expert Joshua Kucera about the challenges facing refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia after Azerbaijan regained the territory...
www.crisisgroup.org
Some 100K Karabakh Armenians left when Baku regained the territory in 2023. In Armenia today, their aid is shrinking & Yerevan is focused on peace talks & elections. On the new @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, Alissa de Carbonnel & I discuss the implications with @joshuakucera.bsky.social
30 Years After Dayton: The Accords That Ended the Bosnia War
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
www.youtube.com
On the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Accords, Marko Prelec reflects for @crisisgroup.org on the deal's historic significance at the time and its repercussions since.
Strengthening Iraq-Türkiye Ties amid Regional Tensions | International Crisis Group
After years of fraught relations, Ankara and Baghdad are charting a course toward rapprochement. But much depends on how the two sides (and other parties) manage various thorny issues. They should mak...
www.crisisgroup.org
Pleased & proud to have this new @crisisgroup.org report on Türkiye-Iraq relations, a collaboration between our Europe & Central Asia Program & our Middle East Program staff. It lays out rapprochement to date & prospects and pitfalls for the future.
How Ukraine’s Women Are Meeting the Challenges of War | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Elissa and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel speak with Sabine Freizer Gunes, UN Women Representative in Ukraine, about how the war has shaped and amplified gender inequalities ...
www.crisisgroup.org
While I was away on holiday, Alissa de Carbonnel and Elissa Jobson did a terrific job on the @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, with guest @sabinefreizer.bsky.social discussing gender dynamics in the war in Ukraine, and how Ukraine's women are responding. Check it out!
Reposted by Olga Oliker
The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb
Despite being highly anticipated, the sudden change in public rhetoric about this year's Zapad strategic military exercise suggests that the Russia-Belarus relationship may be more complicated than…
thebulletin.org
Belarus's nuclear sharing arrangement with the Kremlin makes it far more difficult for Minsk to act independently, write @gabrielairosa.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social.
"The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb." ⬇️
"The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb." ⬇️
Mayor-elect of NYC is a man who co-wrote & co-performed a (political) song about salt & I think that is very appropriate
Report that Russia is flooding the internet with millions of articles in order to shift LLM outputs towards manipulated narratives: euvsdisinfo.eu/large-langua...
euvsdisinfo.eu
Interesting. I had a conversation with someone the other day about whether the language in which you ask the question affects the answer an LLM gives you, particularly when it comes to matters of international affairs, but not only. Have not tested that (and probably won't), so still wondering.
Високі ставки: чому так важко узгодити гарантії безпеки для України | International Crisis Group
Україна просить своїх партнерів надати їй гарантії безпеки — найкраще негайно, але в будь-якому разі до того, як буде укладено якусь угоду з Росією. Експерти Кризової групи пояснюють, чому для прихиль...
www.crisisgroup.org
А чем, вообще, являются гарантии безопасности, и почему они стали таким тяжелым вопросом в отношениях между Украиной и ее партнерами? Мы ( @crisisgroup.org ) объясняем (текст доступний українською мовою, на русском, & in English)
www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...
www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...
Reposted by Olga Oliker
Nate Schenkkan
@nateschenkkan.bsky.social
· Oct 24
euvsdisinfo.eu
Report that Russia is flooding the internet with millions of articles in order to shift LLM outputs towards manipulated narratives: euvsdisinfo.eu/large-langua...
Reposted by Olga Oliker
Michael Hanna
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
· Oct 24
Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela | International Crisis Group
The Trump administration is dispatching military assets to the Caribbean and sinking boats it claims ferry drugs. While it appears the deployment is part of a plan to depose Venezuelan President Nicol...
www.crisisgroup.org
High Stakes Promises: The Challenge of Security Guarantees for Ukraine | International Crisis Group
Ukraine is asking its partners for security guarantees – ideally now, but certainly before it makes any deal with Russia. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why this topic is so fraught for Ukr...
www.crisisgroup.org
Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.
A Bigger Table? The Case for More Global Diplomacy over Ukraine | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel speak with Bob Deen, Head of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute, about diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine and how countri...
www.crisisgroup.org
Trump isn't the first global leader to try (& try) to find a path to peace in the Russo-Ukraine war. New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast welcomes @clingendael.bsky.social's Bob Deen to discuss the roles global powers have tried to play & might yet play with guest host Alissa de Carbonnel & me.
Reposted by Olga Oliker, Patricia Aufderheide, Dunlap
Merriam-Webster
@merriam-webster.com
· Oct 20
Not to be THAT dictionary, but…
It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’
It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’
It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’
It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’
It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'
It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’
It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’
It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’
It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’
It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'
Cleve Jones gave a riveting, rousing speech at San Francisco's No Kings rally yesterday, and he's graciously allowing me to publish it. He began: "The pronouns I use the most are the ones probably understood the least by those in the White House today. They are WE, US and OURS."
Cleve Jones: "This Is Our Country"
This is the first guest essay at Meditations in an Emergency. I'm proud to bring you yesterday's speech by the great Cleve Jones, who has for nearly half a century been a key organizer for the global ...
www.meditationsinanemergency.com
this is a good speech.