Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
@olyaoliker.bsky.social
Europe & Central Asia Director @crisisgroup.org / Feminist / Migrant / ❤️ punk rock (but not only) / Opinions own / Endorsements clearly marked / https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/olga-oliker
Political science
84%
Economics
11%
Home, remixed: Kallemi’s debut EP, Viajeras, melts cultures, languages, and genres to strike deep
Kallemi hit the global music scene in 2018, at the Palestine Music Expo in Ramallah. Since then, Jasmin Albash, La Nefera, Rasha Nahas, and Maysa Daw, each an accomplished musician in her own right…
loudwomen.org
Doctor Dioxide (see prior post) also really enjoyed Kallemi's debut EP, Viajeras. The doctor likes it when music draws on a wide range of musical and cultural styles, plus, migration is, of course, a theme near and dear to her heart. @loudwomen.org
Kid Sophie’s ‘Love Again’ casts a rhythmic spell.
Kid Sophie’s new single, ‘Love Again’ is a hypnotic new wave chant that pulls you in with its first notes and then softly floats you on its waves. This soaring yet gentle heartbreak anthem combines…
loudwomen.org
Hi friends. Happy to announce that my alter ego, Doctor Dioxide (you'll figure it out) is writing about music with @loudwomen.org. The doctor thinks Kid Sophie's new single is pretty darn groovy
Amid Ukraine’s Battlefield Struggles, Zelenskyy’s Domestic Legacy is a Work in Progress | International Crisis Group
Since Russia’s all-out invasion in 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has met domestic political and governance challenges even under fire. But the country’s political truce will not last f...
www.crisisgroup.org
Even as fighting continues & Russian bombings leave civilians without heat, Ukrainian politics is back, both behind closed doors & more publicly. However the war unfolds, Mr. Zelenskyy must now think to the future. In this @crisisgroup.org commentary, @luciankim.bsky.social explains the dynamics.
Waiting at Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
Hence all the applause for Canadian PM Mark Carney at Davos. So, again. Read our explainer. By me, @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org & Marta Mucznik with help from @bcfinucane.bsky.social @lisamusiol.bsky.social & @alissadecarbonnel.bsky.social 10/10
But given a choice between an alliance that does as its strongest member says or suffers punishment vs becoming independent of that ally, the preference is surely for the latter. As they try to talk their way out of this crisis & prepare for the next, that is surely in the back of allied minds. 9/10
An alliance is of far less value if you can't trust your ally & they, indeed, threaten you. But it has some value as long as adversaries believe in it & it continues to provide military infrastructure for your defense needs. Break that, & there are an awful lot of gaps to fill, awfully fast 8/10
When it comes to making it stop, they have leverage, economic & military. There is also opposition in the US, though unclear if it would act. This time around, markets, which punished U.S. bonds and the dollar, also helped out. That's surely a warning to Washington for the future, as well. 7/10
But a demand for an ally's territory, whether by force or not, is an assault on sovereignty & territorial integrity. However negotiations sort out, hard to paper over. So, allies face the challenge of somehow making this stop while also retaining as much US as possible as long as possible. 6/10
This stuff isn't new, of course--it began in the 1st Trump administration & moved at dizzying speed in the first year of the 2nd. Allies have responded by trying to keep US as engaged as possible while they figure out how to reduce dependence, both to help Ukraine & to meet their own needs. 5/10
But the US shift on Ukraine, ending most assistance to the country at war, is the starkest example, in that it either rejects the NATO/EU/formerly US argument that Russia's war threatens European security interests writ large, or indicates that the US no longer cares. 4/10
The seeming disconnect between demanding an ally's territory and, well, being an ally could be explained in part by this administration in general backing away from the transatlantic security bargain of the past 80 yrs, with expressed doubts of NATO value, associated commitments, etc. 3/10
Trump's desire for an ally's territory is tough to explain--US has great military leeway there now, & the local population is unenthusiastic, to say the least. His comments about "psychological" needs & USG narratives of hegemony & territorial acquisition for its own sake may be the core logic 2/10
www.crisisgroup.org
At Davos, by saying he would not use force, Trump somewhat cooled a crisis engendered by his insistence the U.S. own Greenland. But the crisis continues, & however it sorts out, transatlantic relations are irrevocably altered. Our @crisisgroup.org pre-speech analysis lays it out 🧵 1/10
Waiting for Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
Did Donald Trump rule out use of force in his Davos speech? Not entirely clear, but he did not walk back from his demand for an ally's territory. @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org, Marta Mucznik, & I walk through the implications of this continuing crisis for the European & transatlantic security
w/ @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org & Marta Mucznik, & big thanks to @bcfinucane.bsky.social, @lisamusiol.bsky.social & @alissadecarbonnel.bsky.social
Waiting for Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
As Davos awaits Trump, my colleagues & I lay out what's at stake in the Greenland crisis & what might come next as European allies weigh the value of Donald Trump's United States & their options
Whether you are Ukraine or Denmark, it is imaginable that your leaders might decide to trade territory for security, though this would be a fraught & potentially unwise choice. It seems far less plausible to trade territory for wobbly commitments from unreliable actors.
Reposted by Nathalie Tocci
Can Europe Solve Its U.S. Dilemma? | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Alissa speak with Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, about Europe’s response to the U.S. operation in Venezuela, the Trump administratio...
www.crisisgroup.org
On the first War & Peace podcast of 2026, @nathalietocci.bsky.social joins @alissadecarbonnel.bsky.social & me to talk U.S. actions in Venezuela, its threats to Greenland, & what's wrong (& right) with European security responses. Plus, multilateralism, what does it even look like now?
Anyone else hear "like it or not" and translate it in their head to "нравится, не нравится"? Because, ya know, they literally mean the same thing.
PSA:
--Anti-semitism, like other bigotries, is wrong whatever the political goals of the bigot.
--Bigotry from those in power is most dangerous.
--Bigotry from those out of power can be dangerous, too.
--Anti-semites & other bigots are not really liberal or progressive, whatever else they espouse.
--Anti-semitism, like other bigotries, is wrong whatever the political goals of the bigot.
--Bigotry from those in power is most dangerous.
--Bigotry from those out of power can be dangerous, too.
--Anti-semites & other bigots are not really liberal or progressive, whatever else they espouse.
Many thanks for the insightful comments @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social @olyaoliker.bsky.social @massdara.bsky.social @minczifra.bsky.social Oleg Ignatov Mark Cancian www.rferl.org/a/russia-inv...
Will Russia's War Against Ukraine End In 2026?
With the sides far apart on key issues as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches the four-year mark, analysts say the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II is unlikely to end in ...
www.rferl.org
Pleased to be in such erudite company in this strong piece by @sgutterman.bsky.social pulling together expert views on prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war over the next year. Spoiler: none of us are optimistic we'll see a sustainable peace soon.
Reposted by Olga Oliker
Will Russia's War Against Ukraine End In 2026?
With the sides far apart on key issues as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches the four-year mark, analysts say the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II is unlikely to end in ...
www.rferl.org
Many thanks for the insightful comments @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social @olyaoliker.bsky.social @massdara.bsky.social @minczifra.bsky.social Oleg Ignatov Mark Cancian www.rferl.org/a/russia-inv...
You honor the victims of horrific violence by remembering them, and seeking accountability for crimes. You do not honor them by watching recordings of their suffering. Some people must, to make that accountability possible. But if you're not one of them, don't.
Mia Hansen-Love rocks. That is all.
I think a good number of Ukrainians thought a full-scale Russian invasion was likely, Arestovych among them. But when it comes to hollowness of Russian forces, I think the problem there is that Western (& Ukrainian) analysts were using Russian assessments of their own capabilities. Which were wrong
Congrats!
You're looking for someone who was aware of the hollowness of the Russian armed forces as of February 2022?
Russia-Ukraine: Diplomacy is the Best Hope for Heading Off a Deeper Crisis | International Crisis Group
Russia’s ongoing troop build-up near Ukraine has spurred over a month of intense diplomacy as well as new U.S. military deployments to eastern Europe. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts discuss whether...
www.crisisgroup.org
Um, not quite operational failure, but I don't think we did too badly, and I personally was I'm pretty sure on record saying that the invasion was likely. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr... & www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...