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olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
@olyaoliker.bsky.social
5.2K followers 530 following 450 posts

Europe & Central Asia Director @crisisgroup.org / Feminist / Migrant / ❤️ punk rock / Opinions own / Endorsements clearly marked / https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/olga-oliker

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Political science 84%
Economics 11%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Olga Oliker

thebulletin.org
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 4d
Belarus's nuclear sharing arrangement with the Kremlin makes it far more difficult for Minsk to act independently, write @gabrielairosa.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social.

"The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb." ⬇️
The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb
Despite being highly anticipated, the sudden change in public rhetoric about this year's Zapad strategic military exercise suggests that the Russia-Belarus relationship may be more complicated than…
thebulletin.org

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 6d
youtu.be/DZ1OblYm5YY?...
Young Cardamom, HAB - #1 Spice (From "Queen of Katwe")
YouTube video by DisneyMusicVEVO
youtu.be

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 6d
Mayor-elect of NYC is a man who co-wrote & co-performed a (political) song about salt & I think that is very appropriate

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 10d
I ❤️ Lynda Barry
Opinion | The Real Horrors of America
www.nytimes.com

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 17d
Interesting. I had a conversation with someone the other day about whether the language in which you ask the question affects the answer an LLM gives you, particularly when it comes to matters of international affairs, but not only. Have not tested that (and probably won't), so still wondering.
nateschenkkan.bsky.social Nate Schenkkan @nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 17d
Report that Russia is flooding the internet with millions of articles in order to shift LLM outputs towards manipulated narratives: euvsdisinfo.eu/large-langua...
euvsdisinfo.eu

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 17d
А чем, вообще, являются гарантии безопасности, и почему они стали таким тяжелым вопросом в отношениях между Украиной и ее партнерами? Мы ( @crisisgroup.org ) объясняем (текст доступний українською мовою, на русском, & in English)
www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...
Високі ставки: чому так важко узгодити гарантії безпеки для України | International Crisis Group
Україна просить своїх партнерів надати їй гарантії безпеки — найкраще негайно, але в будь-якому разі до того, як буде укладено якусь угоду з Росією. Експерти Кризової групи пояснюють, чому для прихиль...
www.crisisgroup.org

Reposted by Olga Oliker

nateschenkkan.bsky.social
Nate Schenkkan @nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 17d
Report that Russia is flooding the internet with millions of articles in order to shift LLM outputs towards manipulated narratives: euvsdisinfo.eu/large-langua...
euvsdisinfo.eu

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 19d
Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.
High Stakes Promises: The Challenge of Security Guarantees for Ukraine | International Crisis Group
Ukraine is asking its partners for security guarantees – ideally now, but certainly before it makes any deal with Russia. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why this topic is so fraught for Ukr...
www.crisisgroup.org

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 20d
Trump isn't the first global leader to try (& try) to find a path to peace in the Russo-Ukraine war. New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast welcomes @clingendael.bsky.social's Bob Deen to discuss the roles global powers have tried to play & might yet play with guest host Alissa de Carbonnel & me.
A Bigger Table? The Case for More Global Diplomacy over Ukraine | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel speak with Bob Deen, Head of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute, about diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine and how countri...
www.crisisgroup.org

Reposted by Olga Oliker, Patricia Aufderheide, Dunlap

merriam-webster.com
Merriam-Webster @merriam-webster.com · 21d
Not to be THAT dictionary, but…

It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’
It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’
It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’
It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’
It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 22d
this is a good speech.
rebeccasolnit.bsky.social Rebecca Solnit @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social · 22d
Cleve Jones gave a riveting, rousing speech at San Francisco's No Kings rally yesterday, and he's graciously allowing me to publish it. He began: "The pronouns I use the most are the ones probably understood the least by those in the White House today. They are WE, US and OURS."
Cleve Jones: "This Is Our Country"
This is the first guest essay at Meditations in an Emergency. I'm proud to bring you yesterday's speech by the great Cleve Jones, who has for nearly half a century been a key organizer for the global ...
www.meditationsinanemergency.com

Reposted by Olga Oliker, Rosemary A. Joyce, Leah Stokes

rebeccasolnit.bsky.social
Rebecca Solnit @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social · 22d
Cleve Jones gave a riveting, rousing speech at San Francisco's No Kings rally yesterday, and he's graciously allowing me to publish it. He began: "The pronouns I use the most are the ones probably understood the least by those in the White House today. They are WE, US and OURS."
Cleve Jones: "This Is Our Country"
This is the first guest essay at Meditations in an Emergency. I'm proud to bring you yesterday's speech by the great Cleve Jones, who has for nearly half a century been a key organizer for the global ...
www.meditationsinanemergency.com

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 25d
(to be clear, this isn't a brilliant new insight on my part--it's well-documented. But not so well documented that people don't fail to see it again and again and again)

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 25d
This is a terrific success story. It also offers valuable insight into the gaps in much traditional economic/employment/income analysis: a lot of people, most of them female, do a great deal of unpaid agricultural labor that is not accounted for unless the models are built to recognize it.
npr.org NPR @npr.org · 25d
Meridah Nandudu was a single mom of two kids, unemployed and in despair. Then she had an idea: Maybe the "humble" coffee beans she'd grown up with on her parents' farm could lead her to a better life. n.pr/4nUB3ES
Coffee transformed her life — and the lives of women from her village in Uganda
Meridah Nandudu was a single mom of two kids, unemployed and in despair. Then she had an idea: Maybe the "humble" coffee beans she'd grown up with on her parents' farm could lead her to a better life.
n.pr

Reposted by Olga Oliker

npr.org
NPR @npr.org · 25d
Meridah Nandudu was a single mom of two kids, unemployed and in despair. Then she had an idea: Maybe the "humble" coffee beans she'd grown up with on her parents' farm could lead her to a better life. n.pr/4nUB3ES
Coffee transformed her life — and the lives of women from her village in Uganda
Meridah Nandudu was a single mom of two kids, unemployed and in despair. Then she had an idea: Maybe the "humble" coffee beans she'd grown up with on her parents' farm could lead her to a better life.
n.pr

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 25d
This is funny.

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 25d
Our latest @crisisgroup.org EU Watchlist starts with a sober President's Take on the challenges of navigating between the Scylla of Russian threats and the Charybdis of US inconstancy, then dives deep into how the EU can help make things better in Kosovo, Mexico, Yemen, Somalia, and Taiwan.
Watch List 2025 – Autumn Update | International Crisis Group
Each year, Crisis Group publishes two updates to the EU Watch List identifying where the EU and its member states can enhance prospects for peace. This update covers Kosovo’s politics, Mexico’s securi...
www.crisisgroup.org

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 25d
More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.
gabrielairosa.bsky.social Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 25d
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...

Reposted by Olga Oliker

gabrielairosa.bsky.social
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 25d
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...

Reposted by Olga Oliker

slepkane.bsky.social
Simon Kane @slepkane.bsky.social · Oct 10
Goomb, won't you? www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6DG...
Aliens Want Feedback On Their TV Shows | Mitchell and Webb Are Not Helping | Channel 4 Comedy
YouTube video by Channel 4 Comedy
www.youtube.com

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
Absolutely. Excellent point.

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
Absolutely. The question is who is driving what bits of policy and what happens when they pull in their different directions, especially given all the other vagaries of that particular system.

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
I think everyone's adapting. What I want to know is whether they're adapting appropriately, & making the right judgements about how the other (& perhaps other potential adversaries) is adapting/may yet adapt.

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
I think super important to track what they're saying about what they fear, what they think war looks like, & what they think adversaries will do, as well as what they themselves hope to do & what they actually do. Also crucial to track the disconnects between these & whether & when they narrow. 7/7

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
Relatedly, I was struck by @massdara.bsky.social's description of all the whiz-bangy things Russia thinks will be possible with drones & AI. It reminds me of the creative thinking I've seen over decades following Russian military writing. In line with Adamsky, most of this stuff never happens. 6/7

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
Further, as Dima Adamsky has written, there's a certain comfort in Russia with disconnects between theory & practice. But just because it's comfortable, doesn't mean it translates into effectiveness. 5/7
The Culture of Military Innovation | Stanford University Press
This book studies the impact of cultural factors on the course of military innovations. One would expect that countries accustomed to similar technologies would undergo analogous changes in their perc...
www.sup.org

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
The strategic culture may just be sticky: it could shift in time. But as @massdara.bsky.social notes, Russia's history of military learning is patchy, & as @gabrielairosa.bsky.social describes, strategic culture is hard to shift, perhaps especially in Russia. 4/7

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
Meanwhile, @massdara.bsky.social describes folks on the front lines & those responsible for putting them there learning from the present & looking to the future of high-tech warfare & new ways of fighting, albeit facing some of Russia's usual military pathologies. So there's some disconnect. 3/7

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
Per @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, Moscow's strategic culture is still looking to a very big (& thus very short) war with NATO, & old school ways of doing things. 2/7
www.cna.org

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · Oct 8
Really interesting analysis from @massdara.bsky.social on what Russian military is learning, & its learning challenges. Paired with @gabrielairosa.bsky.social's recent work on Russian strategic thinking & threat perceptions www.cna.org/analyses/202..., it's got me thinking. So join me in a 🧵 1/7
How Russia Recovered
What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.
www.foreignaffairs.com