Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
@olyaoliker.bsky.social
Europe & Central Asia Director @crisisgroup.org / Feminist / Migrant / ❤️ punk rock / Opinions own / Endorsements clearly marked / https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/olga-oliker
(to be clear, this isn't a brilliant new insight on my part--it's well-documented. But not so well documented that people don't fail to see it again and again and again)
October 17, 2025 at 10:44 AM
(to be clear, this isn't a brilliant new insight on my part--it's well-documented. But not so well documented that people don't fail to see it again and again and again)
Absolutely. Excellent point.
October 8, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Absolutely. Excellent point.
Absolutely. The question is who is driving what bits of policy and what happens when they pull in their different directions, especially given all the other vagaries of that particular system.
October 8, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Absolutely. The question is who is driving what bits of policy and what happens when they pull in their different directions, especially given all the other vagaries of that particular system.
I think everyone's adapting. What I want to know is whether they're adapting appropriately, & making the right judgements about how the other (& perhaps other potential adversaries) is adapting/may yet adapt.
October 8, 2025 at 3:41 PM
I think everyone's adapting. What I want to know is whether they're adapting appropriately, & making the right judgements about how the other (& perhaps other potential adversaries) is adapting/may yet adapt.
I think super important to track what they're saying about what they fear, what they think war looks like, & what they think adversaries will do, as well as what they themselves hope to do & what they actually do. Also crucial to track the disconnects between these & whether & when they narrow. 7/7
October 8, 2025 at 3:30 PM
I think super important to track what they're saying about what they fear, what they think war looks like, & what they think adversaries will do, as well as what they themselves hope to do & what they actually do. Also crucial to track the disconnects between these & whether & when they narrow. 7/7
Relatedly, I was struck by @massdara.bsky.social's description of all the whiz-bangy things Russia thinks will be possible with drones & AI. It reminds me of the creative thinking I've seen over decades following Russian military writing. In line with Adamsky, most of this stuff never happens. 6/7
October 8, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Relatedly, I was struck by @massdara.bsky.social's description of all the whiz-bangy things Russia thinks will be possible with drones & AI. It reminds me of the creative thinking I've seen over decades following Russian military writing. In line with Adamsky, most of this stuff never happens. 6/7
Further, as Dima Adamsky has written, there's a certain comfort in Russia with disconnects between theory & practice. But just because it's comfortable, doesn't mean it translates into effectiveness. 5/7
The Culture of Military Innovation | Stanford University Press
This book studies the impact of cultural factors on the course of military innovations. One would expect that countries accustomed to similar technologies would undergo analogous changes in their perc...
www.sup.org
October 8, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Further, as Dima Adamsky has written, there's a certain comfort in Russia with disconnects between theory & practice. But just because it's comfortable, doesn't mean it translates into effectiveness. 5/7
The strategic culture may just be sticky: it could shift in time. But as @massdara.bsky.social notes, Russia's history of military learning is patchy, & as @gabrielairosa.bsky.social describes, strategic culture is hard to shift, perhaps especially in Russia. 4/7
October 8, 2025 at 3:30 PM
The strategic culture may just be sticky: it could shift in time. But as @massdara.bsky.social notes, Russia's history of military learning is patchy, & as @gabrielairosa.bsky.social describes, strategic culture is hard to shift, perhaps especially in Russia. 4/7
Meanwhile, @massdara.bsky.social describes folks on the front lines & those responsible for putting them there learning from the present & looking to the future of high-tech warfare & new ways of fighting, albeit facing some of Russia's usual military pathologies. So there's some disconnect. 3/7
October 8, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Meanwhile, @massdara.bsky.social describes folks on the front lines & those responsible for putting them there learning from the present & looking to the future of high-tech warfare & new ways of fighting, albeit facing some of Russia's usual military pathologies. So there's some disconnect. 3/7
Per @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, Moscow's strategic culture is still looking to a very big (& thus very short) war with NATO, & old school ways of doing things. 2/7
www.cna.org
October 8, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Per @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, Moscow's strategic culture is still looking to a very big (& thus very short) war with NATO, & old school ways of doing things. 2/7