Phil Swatton
@philswatton.bsky.social
Work as a senior data scientist at the Alan Turing Institute, background in political science. Views my own and not necessarily shared by my employer.
https://philswatton.github.io/
https://philswatton.github.io/
As others have said, this is brilliant in its clarity and its willingness to articulate an argument. Couldn't help but think of recent discussions on the lack of thought in British political life while reading it
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
open.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 6:19 AM
As others have said, this is brilliant in its clarity and its willingness to articulate an argument. Couldn't help but think of recent discussions on the lack of thought in British political life while reading it
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
open.substack.com/pub/paulwell...
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Mark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
paulwells.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Mark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.
The same is true of Britain and the longer we take to act on this reality the more painful it will be
From Carney's Davos speech: "A country that cannot feed itself, fuel itself or defend itself has few options. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself" www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
'The old order is not coming back,' Carney says in provocative speech at Davos | CBC News
Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a frank assessment of how he views the world in a provocative speech in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, where he said the longstanding U.S.-led, rules-based international...
www.cbc.ca
January 20, 2026 at 5:02 PM
The same is true of Britain and the longer we take to act on this reality the more painful it will be
Absolutely fantastic piece. Mitchell is an all too rare voice of reason in the discourse around the intelligence of LLMs and other ML models
My latest on Substack -- a write-up of the talk I gave at NeurIPS in December.
aiguide.substack.com/p/on-evaluat...
aiguide.substack.com/p/on-evaluat...
On Evaluating Cognitive Capabilities in Machines (and Other "Alien" Intelligences)
(Apologies for the length of this post, which means it gets cut off in the email version.
aiguide.substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Absolutely fantastic piece. Mitchell is an all too rare voice of reason in the discourse around the intelligence of LLMs and other ML models
Reposted by Phil Swatton
It is central to the process of far-right normalization that, as these parties grow, they are able to attract more politicians with political experience and skill—often at the expense of mainstream right parties.
January 16, 2026 at 11:58 AM
It is central to the process of far-right normalization that, as these parties grow, they are able to attract more politicians with political experience and skill—often at the expense of mainstream right parties.
Looking forward to the @williamcb.bsky.social take on this:
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
January 16, 2026 at 11:10 AM
Looking forward to the @williamcb.bsky.social take on this:
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5901/ld...
In the Anatomy of Fascism, Paxton highlights the fact that fascist regimes were essentially uneasy Alliances between fascists and traditional conservative elites. This often resulted in tension between the leadership and party.
RR not necessarily fascist etc etc
RR not necessarily fascist etc etc
One of the widely ignored consequences of the stamped of former Conservatives to Reform is that a lot of people who were anticipating being players in a Reform government are going to find themselves cast aside as the likes of Zahawi and Jenrick are parachuted into leading roles.
January 15, 2026 at 3:58 PM
In the Anatomy of Fascism, Paxton highlights the fact that fascist regimes were essentially uneasy Alliances between fascists and traditional conservative elites. This often resulted in tension between the leadership and party.
RR not necessarily fascist etc etc
RR not necessarily fascist etc etc
I think I'm surprised by Jenrick's plan to defect, in that:
a) I'd assumed Jenrick's game plan was to wait till May and challenge for the leadership
b) I can't imagine Jenrick being content with playing second fiddle to Nigel
c) Reform's ascendancy is not nearly as guaranteed as it currently looks
a) I'd assumed Jenrick's game plan was to wait till May and challenge for the leadership
b) I can't imagine Jenrick being content with playing second fiddle to Nigel
c) Reform's ascendancy is not nearly as guaranteed as it currently looks
BREAKING Kemi Badenoch has sacked Robert Jenrick from the shadow cabinet, removed the whip and suspended his party membership.
She says she was "presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect" to Reform
She says she was "presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect" to Reform
January 15, 2026 at 2:16 PM
I think I'm surprised by Jenrick's plan to defect, in that:
a) I'd assumed Jenrick's game plan was to wait till May and challenge for the leadership
b) I can't imagine Jenrick being content with playing second fiddle to Nigel
c) Reform's ascendancy is not nearly as guaranteed as it currently looks
a) I'd assumed Jenrick's game plan was to wait till May and challenge for the leadership
b) I can't imagine Jenrick being content with playing second fiddle to Nigel
c) Reform's ascendancy is not nearly as guaranteed as it currently looks
From Robert Paxton's 'Anatomy of Fascism': 'Fascists are close to power when conservatives begin to borrow their techniques, appeal to their "mobilising passions", and try to co-opt the fascist following.'
January 13, 2026 at 7:20 AM
From Robert Paxton's 'Anatomy of Fascism': 'Fascists are close to power when conservatives begin to borrow their techniques, appeal to their "mobilising passions", and try to co-opt the fascist following.'
Would be interesting to see non-coalition govts included in this.
Which potential coalitions have the most support from Britons?
LD + Lab, Davey PM: 36% support
Lab + Grn, Starmer PM: 33%
Lab + LD, Starmer PM: 31%
Grn + Lab, Polanski PM: 30%
Ref + Con, Farage PM: 29%
LD + Con, Davey PM: 26%
Con + Ref, Badenoch PM: 25%
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
LD + Lab, Davey PM: 36% support
Lab + Grn, Starmer PM: 33%
Lab + LD, Starmer PM: 31%
Grn + Lab, Polanski PM: 30%
Ref + Con, Farage PM: 29%
LD + Con, Davey PM: 26%
Con + Ref, Badenoch PM: 25%
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
January 8, 2026 at 10:46 AM
Would be interesting to see non-coalition govts included in this.
I think this is true, but to a point - algorithms are designed, and different design decisions are available.
Not particularly apropos of anything but:
At some point we are gonna have to face up to the fact we’ve spent most of the last decade blaming “the algorithm” for stuff that’s mostly just human nature and culture.
At some point we are gonna have to face up to the fact we’ve spent most of the last decade blaming “the algorithm” for stuff that’s mostly just human nature and culture.
January 7, 2026 at 3:19 PM
I think this is true, but to a point - algorithms are designed, and different design decisions are available.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
We had a good run
2026 could be great. We simply don't know.
January 3, 2026 at 4:08 PM
We had a good run
Reposted by Phil Swatton
A lot of talk about Overton windows after one of the worst years for out-and-out racism & hate in politics that I personally remember - but accusations of racism by Rfm candidates last year was met with withdrawal and blaming "bad vetting".
They are far more willing to back racist candidates now.
They are far more willing to back racist candidates now.
December 23, 2025 at 9:45 AM
A lot of talk about Overton windows after one of the worst years for out-and-out racism & hate in politics that I personally remember - but accusations of racism by Rfm candidates last year was met with withdrawal and blaming "bad vetting".
They are far more willing to back racist candidates now.
They are far more willing to back racist candidates now.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
🚨 Excited that "Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery" by Eddy Malesky, Lucio Picci, and me has been published in FirstView at @iojournal.bsky.social!
Open Access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... 1/n
Open Access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... 1/n
Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery
doi.org
December 10, 2025 at 11:10 AM
🚨 Excited that "Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery" by Eddy Malesky, Lucio Picci, and me has been published in FirstView at @iojournal.bsky.social!
Open Access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... 1/n
Open Access: doi.org/10.1017/S002... 1/n
In case anyone else is doing #adventofcode in R this year, I've been putting my solutions in this repo: github.com/alan-turing-...
GitHub - alan-turing-institute/advent-of-code-2025: Advent of Code 2025
Advent of Code 2025. Contribute to alan-turing-institute/advent-of-code-2025 development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
December 10, 2025 at 12:10 PM
In case anyone else is doing #adventofcode in R this year, I've been putting my solutions in this repo: github.com/alan-turing-...
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Holy shit.
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
December 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Holy shit.
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Reuters reporting that new admin instructions on visas are if you worked at a platform in trust & safety or content moderation or on fact checking or online safety at an platform you *and your loved ones* are ineligible for H-1B visa.
www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
Some professional news: I've been promoted to senior data scientist at the Alan Turing Institute
December 5, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Some professional news: I've been promoted to senior data scientist at the Alan Turing Institute
Reposted by Phil Swatton
No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
PM describes net migration of 205k as "a step in the right direction". His govt has no public position on a sustainable level of immigration is, nor any known process to decide what, why & how. Starmer is now implying he wants it significantly lower
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Net migration drop ‘step in the right direction’ – Starmer
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.
www.standard.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Anecdotally I've found that GitHub Copilot can be an excellent tool for:
1) specific, narrow tasks
2) documentation (esp. autocomplete on e.g. Python docstrings)
3) debugging
Also found ChatGPT v. useful for quickly grokking the APIs of under-documented libraries
1) specific, narrow tasks
2) documentation (esp. autocomplete on e.g. Python docstrings)
3) debugging
Also found ChatGPT v. useful for quickly grokking the APIs of under-documented libraries
At the risk of starting the flame war to end all flame wars...
Modern LLMs (GPT-5.1, Claude 4.5, Gemini 3) produce excellent code and can be a significant productivity boost to software engineers who take the time to learn how to effectively apply them - especially if used with coding agent tools
Modern LLMs (GPT-5.1, Claude 4.5, Gemini 3) produce excellent code and can be a significant productivity boost to software engineers who take the time to learn how to effectively apply them - especially if used with coding agent tools
November 28, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Anecdotally I've found that GitHub Copilot can be an excellent tool for:
1) specific, narrow tasks
2) documentation (esp. autocomplete on e.g. Python docstrings)
3) debugging
Also found ChatGPT v. useful for quickly grokking the APIs of under-documented libraries
1) specific, narrow tasks
2) documentation (esp. autocomplete on e.g. Python docstrings)
3) debugging
Also found ChatGPT v. useful for quickly grokking the APIs of under-documented libraries
Reposted by Phil Swatton
I'd add a fourth - politicians/elites have an inaccurate picture of public sentiment on immigration.
People will write whole articles about how we Must Do X to See Off Farage - and then when you ask what evidence there is that that would achieve that, just silence.
People will write whole articles about how we Must Do X to See Off Farage - and then when you ask what evidence there is that that would achieve that, just silence.
November 28, 2025 at 10:33 AM
I'd add a fourth - politicians/elites have an inaccurate picture of public sentiment on immigration.
People will write whole articles about how we Must Do X to See Off Farage - and then when you ask what evidence there is that that would achieve that, just silence.
People will write whole articles about how we Must Do X to See Off Farage - and then when you ask what evidence there is that that would achieve that, just silence.
There are three basic problems with our immigration discourse. First, it is fundamentally dehumanising. Second, a la @sundersays.bsky.social, it has left the public with an inaccurate picture of immigration. Third, it treats immigration in isolation, rather than as connected to other policy areas
Foreign doctors trained by the NHS face deportation under visa rules
Foreign doctors trained by the NHS face deportation under visa rules
www.thetimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:53 AM
There are three basic problems with our immigration discourse. First, it is fundamentally dehumanising. Second, a la @sundersays.bsky.social, it has left the public with an inaccurate picture of immigration. Third, it treats immigration in isolation, rather than as connected to other policy areas
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Again some excellent work by @philswatton.bsky.social!! Check it out:
I have a new preprint: 'Predictive Modelling Shows Demographics Do Not Predict Vote Choice at the Individual Level'
DOI: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Thread below
DOI: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Thread below
November 24, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Again some excellent work by @philswatton.bsky.social!! Check it out:
This whole thread is a wonderful defence of a humane and tolerant attitude, but how prescient was Stuart Hall here: " The capacity to live with difference is ... the coming question of the twenty-first century."
In my article, I quoted something from Stuart Hall's "Culture, Community, Nation," an essay first published in a 1993 issue of Cultural Studies. He writes:
"It should not be necessary to look, walk, feel, think, speak exactly like a paid-up member of the buttoned-up, stiff-upper-lipped, ...
"It should not be necessary to look, walk, feel, think, speak exactly like a paid-up member of the buttoned-up, stiff-upper-lipped, ...
November 24, 2025 at 11:45 AM
This whole thread is a wonderful defence of a humane and tolerant attitude, but how prescient was Stuart Hall here: " The capacity to live with difference is ... the coming question of the twenty-first century."
If, like me, you are an enjoyer of Ben's patented bubble plots, you'll have likely noticed that voters cluster by ideology and not demographics.
My new preprint is on exactly that: osf.io/preprints/so...
My new preprint is on exactly that: osf.io/preprints/so...
November 21, 2025 at 4:47 PM
If, like me, you are an enjoyer of Ben's patented bubble plots, you'll have likely noticed that voters cluster by ideology and not demographics.
My new preprint is on exactly that: osf.io/preprints/so...
My new preprint is on exactly that: osf.io/preprints/so...