Phil Swatton
@philswatton.bsky.social
Work as a data scientist at the Alan Turing Institute, background in political science. Views my own and not necessarily shared by my employer.
https://philswatton.github.io/
https://philswatton.github.io/
I've written a blog post about using metric unfolding to extract latent dimensions from data, using the ANES feeling thermometers & BES 'like' scales as examples.
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
November 7, 2025 at 11:55 AM
I've written a blog post about using metric unfolding to extract latent dimensions from data, using the ANES feeling thermometers & BES 'like' scales as examples.
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
It's a high-level intro to unfolding and using the smacof R package. These plots are the results.
philswatton.github.io/2025/11/05/e...
Reposted by Phil Swatton
"If the person is a U.S. citizen or otherwise lawfully in the United States, that individual will be free to go after the brief encounter."
--Brett Kavanaugh, Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/03/c...
--Brett Kavanaugh, Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/03/c...
November 3, 2025 at 4:20 PM
"If the person is a U.S. citizen or otherwise lawfully in the United States, that individual will be free to go after the brief encounter."
--Brett Kavanaugh, Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/03/c...
--Brett Kavanaugh, Noem v. Vasquez Perdomo
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/11/03/c...
Great piece, very much looking forward to part 2. Excellent critiques both of various right-wing ideologies around tech and of left-wing disinterest in tech.
Today I write about the recent swirl of think tanks centred on growth and progress. And batshit authoritarians.
open.substack.com/pub/williamc...
open.substack.com/pub/williamc...
Growth, progress and batshit authoritarians
Claiming the future, part 1: The importance of nowism
open.substack.com
October 25, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Great piece, very much looking forward to part 2. Excellent critiques both of various right-wing ideologies around tech and of left-wing disinterest in tech.
The UK's liberal democracy is not being defended by its mainstream politicians in Labour or the Conservatives. Only third parties seem alive to the threat. Unless something changes, and soon, we will fibd ourselves experiencing our own version of Trump's US.
It'd be nice of Downing Street would wholeheartedly condemn the Lam mass-deportation stuff, but it's also an enormous failure of the centre-right to maintain a cordon sanitaire against this slide.
October 22, 2025 at 10:53 AM
The UK's liberal democracy is not being defended by its mainstream politicians in Labour or the Conservatives. Only third parties seem alive to the threat. Unless something changes, and soon, we will fibd ourselves experiencing our own version of Trump's US.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
🚨NEW BLOGPOST🚨
Since the government can't seem to see it, I explain how and why a simple act of Parliament can bring the Andrew affair to the end - and why they should do it.
joxleywrites.substack.com/p/parliament...
Since the government can't seem to see it, I explain how and why a simple act of Parliament can bring the Andrew affair to the end - and why they should do it.
joxleywrites.substack.com/p/parliament...
October 20, 2025 at 10:28 AM
🚨NEW BLOGPOST🚨
Since the government can't seem to see it, I explain how and why a simple act of Parliament can bring the Andrew affair to the end - and why they should do it.
joxleywrites.substack.com/p/parliament...
Since the government can't seem to see it, I explain how and why a simple act of Parliament can bring the Andrew affair to the end - and why they should do it.
joxleywrites.substack.com/p/parliament...
Reposted by Phil Swatton
One of my issues with Politico is that its jaunty, gossipy tone jars with the dangerous turn in UK politics.
A "mostly clanger free conference"? A recording of the Shadow Justice Secretary complaining about seeing "no white faces" surfaced and was the talking point in interviews and coverage...
A "mostly clanger free conference"? A recording of the Shadow Justice Secretary complaining about seeing "no white faces" surfaced and was the talking point in interviews and coverage...
October 8, 2025 at 6:45 AM
One of my issues with Politico is that its jaunty, gossipy tone jars with the dangerous turn in UK politics.
A "mostly clanger free conference"? A recording of the Shadow Justice Secretary complaining about seeing "no white faces" surfaced and was the talking point in interviews and coverage...
A "mostly clanger free conference"? A recording of the Shadow Justice Secretary complaining about seeing "no white faces" surfaced and was the talking point in interviews and coverage...
Just caught up on this fantastic essay by @sundersays.bsky.social in @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Brilliant, punchy, to the point on Labour's lack of serious engagement with multiculturalism, and a much-welcome rebuttal to those who advocate for Labour to accommodate Reform's radical right populism.
"In the twenty-first century, the success of social democracy depends on narrowing differences between groups"
@sundersays.bsky.social responds to the anonymous essay that @patrickmaguire.bsky.social has reported is being shared around by Labour MPs
@sundersays.bsky.social responds to the anonymous essay that @patrickmaguire.bsky.social has reported is being shared around by Labour MPs
False prophecies
What did you manage to read on your summer holidays? I found myself in the early phases of the 14 volume CP Snow Strangers and Brothers series – covering 20th century Britain from the first world war ...
renewal.org.uk
October 5, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Just caught up on this fantastic essay by @sundersays.bsky.social in @renewaljournal.bsky.social. Brilliant, punchy, to the point on Labour's lack of serious engagement with multiculturalism, and a much-welcome rebuttal to those who advocate for Labour to accommodate Reform's radical right populism.
I wrote a slightly longer response to the NS piece on my substack. You can read it here: dysfunctionalprogramming.substack.com/p/some-comme...
October 3, 2025 at 7:28 PM
I wrote a slightly longer response to the NS piece on my substack. You can read it here: dysfunctionalprogramming.substack.com/p/some-comme...
The thing I most hate about this kind of reasoning is that it regards the question of whether or not Farage is a racist as unimportant or incidental. All that matters is what an imagined median voter likes right now. Politics as anything other than triangulation regarded as a misstep.
Crying racism only hurts Labour
Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.
📊 @bwalker.uk
Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.
📊 @bwalker.uk
Crying racism only hurts Labour
Activists like it, but the median voter will feel attacked.
www.newstatesman.com
October 2, 2025 at 6:03 AM
The thing I most hate about this kind of reasoning is that it regards the question of whether or not Farage is a racist as unimportant or incidental. All that matters is what an imagined median voter likes right now. Politics as anything other than triangulation regarded as a misstep.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Short article covering the psychometrics and LLMs work we published a few months back. Hopefully, more readable (i.e. less maths!) :)
@philswatton.bsky.social
cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications...
@philswatton.bsky.social
cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications...
Patterns, Not People: Personality Structures in LLM-powered Persona Agents
Expert Analysis
cetas.turing.ac.uk
October 1, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Short article covering the psychometrics and LLMs work we published a few months back. Hopefully, more readable (i.e. less maths!) :)
@philswatton.bsky.social
cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications...
@philswatton.bsky.social
cetas.turing.ac.uk/publications...
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.
Also frankly I am quite desperate! A party that’s at best ambivalent on the question of whether I’m English and wants to deport my friends is 9 points ahead in the polls and the current leader is floundering and visibly out of his depth!
September 24, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Brilliantly lucid piece from Phil - well worth a read.
New piece by me. I wrote about what the political methodology literature tells us about the uses and abuses of surveys, why a polling-first political strategy is a mistake, and why a clear set of values and a clear political vision is essential for reconciling contradictory pressures on policy.
"public opinion should only be one consideration among many in policymaking and party strategy, and never the prime mover of politics."
@philswatton.bsky.social on the pitfalls of poll-driven politics and the importance of political leadership.
renewal.org.uk/blog/public-...
@philswatton.bsky.social on the pitfalls of poll-driven politics and the importance of political leadership.
renewal.org.uk/blog/public-...
September 10, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Brilliantly lucid piece from Phil - well worth a read.
New piece by me. I wrote about what the political methodology literature tells us about the uses and abuses of surveys, why a polling-first political strategy is a mistake, and why a clear set of values and a clear political vision is essential for reconciling contradictory pressures on policy.
"public opinion should only be one consideration among many in policymaking and party strategy, and never the prime mover of politics."
@philswatton.bsky.social on the pitfalls of poll-driven politics and the importance of political leadership.
renewal.org.uk/blog/public-...
@philswatton.bsky.social on the pitfalls of poll-driven politics and the importance of political leadership.
renewal.org.uk/blog/public-...
Public Opinion and the Survey Response
Political scientists know that survey responses cannot be taken at face value. For most respondents, most of the time, responses are not the product of deeply held, pre-existing, coherent views on par...
renewal.org.uk
September 8, 2025 at 5:20 PM
New piece by me. I wrote about what the political methodology literature tells us about the uses and abuses of surveys, why a polling-first political strategy is a mistake, and why a clear set of values and a clear political vision is essential for reconciling contradictory pressures on policy.
It's good to see these MPs continuing to stand up for the role of deliberation in democracy and for the scrutinising role of parliament. If Farage does become PM in the future, a concentration of power in the executive will prove a catastrophe.
Suspended Labour MPs write for us. Feisty: www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
If we want a healthy democracy, Labour should not be suspending MPs like us
Westminster debates often extol the virtues of our democracy. But if democracy is reduced to a single moment – a general election every five years ...
www.politicshome.com
September 4, 2025 at 11:56 AM
It's good to see these MPs continuing to stand up for the role of deliberation in democracy and for the scrutinising role of parliament. If Farage does become PM in the future, a concentration of power in the executive will prove a catastrophe.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
really feels like housing affordability is one of the most important political issues of our time, affecting nearly every aspect of our lives, and everyday our mainstream political discourse is about whether sour cream is woke or not
August 9, 2025 at 6:15 AM
really feels like housing affordability is one of the most important political issues of our time, affecting nearly every aspect of our lives, and everyday our mainstream political discourse is about whether sour cream is woke or not
A pandas quirk I recently discovered:
August 7, 2025 at 9:39 AM
A pandas quirk I recently discovered:
Reposted by Phil Swatton
An *amazing* opportunity to work at @gesis.org as a senior researcher with the #CSES project and have a big impact in the field of voting behavior and elections!!
Deadline for sending in applications is August 15!
#PoliSciJobs
Deadline for sending in applications is August 15!
#PoliSciJobs
Want to work for CSES, or know someone who does?
GESIS (@gesis.org) is hiring a full-time Senior Researcher, based in Germany, in the area of International Electoral Research.
The application deadline is August 15, 2025.
For more information, see: www.gesis.org/en/institute...
GESIS (@gesis.org) is hiring a full-time Senior Researcher, based in Germany, in the area of International Electoral Research.
The application deadline is August 15, 2025.
For more information, see: www.gesis.org/en/institute...
August 6, 2025 at 7:25 AM
An *amazing* opportunity to work at @gesis.org as a senior researcher with the #CSES project and have a big impact in the field of voting behavior and elections!!
Deadline for sending in applications is August 15!
#PoliSciJobs
Deadline for sending in applications is August 15!
#PoliSciJobs
Reposted by Phil Swatton
New YouGov polling. A monumental failure of our political class to educate, a monumental failure of our media to report fairly, for a generation
August 5, 2025 at 6:27 AM
New YouGov polling. A monumental failure of our political class to educate, a monumental failure of our media to report fairly, for a generation
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Sarah Mercer, Daniel P. Martin, Phil Swatton
Applying Psychometrics to Large Language Model Simulated Populations: Recreating the HEXACO Personality Inventory Experiment with Generative Agents
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.00742
Applying Psychometrics to Large Language Model Simulated Populations: Recreating the HEXACO Personality Inventory Experiment with Generative Agents
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.00742
August 4, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Sarah Mercer, Daniel P. Martin, Phil Swatton
Applying Psychometrics to Large Language Model Simulated Populations: Recreating the HEXACO Personality Inventory Experiment with Generative Agents
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.00742
Applying Psychometrics to Large Language Model Simulated Populations: Recreating the HEXACO Personality Inventory Experiment with Generative Agents
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.00742
Had a lot of fun collaborating on this project, exploring what personality dimensions are simulated by a population of LLM agents. A big thank you to Sarah for involving me
Publication day! It's been a labour of love. Thanks to @philswatton.bsky.social and Dan for their ideas, support and encouragement. And to @gypsystitcher.bsky.social for the genius idea of using the ons census!
Sarah Mercer, Daniel P. Martin, Phil Swatton
Applying Psychometrics to Large Language Model Simulated Populations: Recreating the HEXACO Personality Inventory Experiment with Generative Agents
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.00742
Applying Psychometrics to Large Language Model Simulated Populations: Recreating the HEXACO Personality Inventory Experiment with Generative Agents
https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.00742
August 4, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Had a lot of fun collaborating on this project, exploring what personality dimensions are simulated by a population of LLM agents. A big thank you to Sarah for involving me
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Paid research assistant opportunity with the British Election Study for UK-based graduate students. Help us validate turnout in our surveys against Electoral Commission records
July 17, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Paid research assistant opportunity with the British Election Study for UK-based graduate students. Help us validate turnout in our surveys against Electoral Commission records
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Wow—the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention (named after Raphael Lemkin, a Holocaust survivor who coined the term genocide) says plainly:
"No more discussions, meetings, reports, sessions, summits…IF YOU HAVE THE POWER, YOU MUST USE IT."
"HISTORY WILL DETERMINE THE RECTITUDE OF YOUR ACTIONS."
"No more discussions, meetings, reports, sessions, summits…IF YOU HAVE THE POWER, YOU MUST USE IT."
"HISTORY WILL DETERMINE THE RECTITUDE OF YOUR ACTIONS."
July 21, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Wow—the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention (named after Raphael Lemkin, a Holocaust survivor who coined the term genocide) says plainly:
"No more discussions, meetings, reports, sessions, summits…IF YOU HAVE THE POWER, YOU MUST USE IT."
"HISTORY WILL DETERMINE THE RECTITUDE OF YOUR ACTIONS."
"No more discussions, meetings, reports, sessions, summits…IF YOU HAVE THE POWER, YOU MUST USE IT."
"HISTORY WILL DETERMINE THE RECTITUDE OF YOUR ACTIONS."
Reposted by Phil Swatton
Reposted by Phil Swatton
The Pope has a math degree, it should be noted. Probably the first Pope who knows what a metric space is.
Here’s an American who still believes in science! 😄 😛 Future funding source??
July 20, 2025 at 8:09 PM
The Pope has a math degree, it should be noted. Probably the first Pope who knows what a metric space is.
Reposted by Phil Swatton
I've written about how the party went from tightly controlling selections to tightly controlling the whip, and the limits of that strategy when you a) win huge numbers of seats b) do things your base doesn't like and c) have famous MPs like Abbott.
www.newstatesman.com/uncategorize...
www.newstatesman.com/uncategorize...
Will Labour's backbencher purge have unexpected concequences?
Inside and outside of parliament a space to the left of the government is opening up.
www.newstatesman.com
July 20, 2025 at 9:23 AM
I've written about how the party went from tightly controlling selections to tightly controlling the whip, and the limits of that strategy when you a) win huge numbers of seats b) do things your base doesn't like and c) have famous MPs like Abbott.
www.newstatesman.com/uncategorize...
www.newstatesman.com/uncategorize...