Pedro Magalhães
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pcmagalhaes.bsky.social
Pedro Magalhães
@pcmagalhaes.bsky.social

Polítical scientist at ULisbon. OSU PhD. Public opinion & judicial politics. Website: https://www.pedro-magalhaes.org

Political science 62%
Economics 12%

Ponham nos vossos calendários. É grátis, tem bons músicos e cantores e também tem momentos de humor, incluindo um tenor cientista político a tentar chegar a um Lá na 5ª oitava logo na 1ª peça. www.agendalx.pt/events/event...
Um Natal com Bach
www.agendalx.pt

Era importante conseguimos mais assinaturas durante o dia de hoje. Por favor passem por aqui, leiam, e se concordarem, assinem.
Quem se quiser juntar pode assinar aqui: forms.gle/YSuxesmEjZEo.... Vamos recolher assinaturas até à manhã de segunda-feira, dia 17, para depois enviar para o Ministério, dentro do prazo dado para recolher outros contributos e pareceres. (2 e fim).
Por uma Ciência Autónoma, Ambiciosa e Responsável
É inegável que a ciência portuguesa enfrenta sérias dificuldades que há muito temos vindo a apontar, designadamente nos manifestos pela ciência de 2011 e 2018 e no manifesto conjunto de cientistas e e...
forms.gle

Isto ainda não dá para ciências "moles", mas claro, é o mesmo tipo de coisa.

Tried refine.ink by @bengolub.bsky.social to get feedback about a paper and it's quite remarkable. Worth giving it a try. And if you use this link — www.refine.ink?ref=cGVkcm9t... — we can both get a free review.

Quem se quiser juntar pode assinar aqui: forms.gle/YSuxesmEjZEo.... Vamos recolher assinaturas até à manhã de segunda-feira, dia 17, para depois enviar para o Ministério, dentro do prazo dado para recolher outros contributos e pareceres. (2 e fim).
Por uma Ciência Autónoma, Ambiciosa e Responsável
É inegável que a ciência portuguesa enfrenta sérias dificuldades que há muito temos vindo a apontar, designadamente nos manifestos pela ciência de 2011 e 2018 e no manifesto conjunto de cientistas e e...
forms.gle

Não me lembro de um governo recente tão interessado em reformar o nosso ecossistema científico. Isso é bom. Mas a fusão FCT/ANI, especialmente a dupla (ou tripla) tutela ministerial do financiamento da ciência, é um passo em falso. Por isso subscrevi este texto (1): www.publico.pt/2025/11/15/c...
Por uma ciência autónoma, ambiciosa e responsável
Reformas desta escala, quando feitas sem um claro desenho institucional, modelo de governança e plano de transição rigoroso, correm o risco de gerar incerteza, inércia e paralisia administrativa.
www.publico.pt

Reposted by Ignacio Lago

🏅 Nos alegra anunciar que nuestro compañero Jorge Fernandes (@jmfernandes86.bsky.social) ha recibido el Premio Julián Marías de Investigación 2025 (modalidad investigadores menores de 40 años) de la Comunidad de Madrid.

Un merecido reconocimiento a su trayectoria.

🔗 ipp.csic.es/es/article/j...
Jorge Fernandes, Premio Julián Marías de Investigación 2025 | Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos
Nuestro compañero Jorge Fernandes, investigador del Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos (IPP-CSIC), ha sido galardonado con el Premio Julián Marías de Investigación 2025 en la modalidad destinada...
ipp.csic.es

O Nobel da Economia para Joel Mokyr faz-me lembrar que foi ele que fez a palestra Sedas Nunes no @ics-ulisboa.bsky.social em 2017. E que foi Pedro Lains, que nos deixou em 2021, que o apresentou nesse dia. Ainda está disponível aqui. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w5K...
Abertura do Ano Académico 2017/2018 - Palestra A. Sedas Nunes
YouTube video by Instituto Ciências Sociais - Universidade de Lisboa
www.youtube.com

Oh, was there in July. Wonderful.
🤔 Do surveys exaggerate democratic support due to social desirability bias (SDB)?

➡️ Using survey-mode variation & list experiments in 24 countries, @pcmagalhaes.bsky.social & @aarslew.bsky.social find no evidence that SDB inflates democratic attitudes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

PS- This is the product of a visit by @aarslew.bsky.social to @ics-ulisboa.bsky.social. It was a super fun project to work on, and I'm ever so grateful to him. Also to @ess-survey.bsky.social central team — and the UK and FI teams — for help with data access and to the PT team for help with Cronos.

Reposted by Mark J. Brandt

All this suggests we should probably stop assuming respondents are insincere when answering questions about "democracy" and, instead, continue caring deeply about the many other challenges involved in measuring these attitudes. (end)

Finally, in a list experiment in Portugal, we find, like @dielea.bsky.social and Kiewiet de Jonge before us, that there are no relevant differences to write home about. (7)

Second, in two countries where two similar samples were simultaneously interviewed using different modes, self-completion is associated, at most, with both lower democratic AND autocratic support, suggesting that mode effects here have no connection with social desirability. (6)

First, in a battery of questions about democracy and how it is conceived in the
@ess-survey.bsky.social Democracy module, modules, we show that the move from face-to-face to self-completion caused by the pandemic in several countries is not associated with discernible changes in responses. (5)

Reposted by Mark J. Brandt

Here, @aarslew.bsky.social and I use the well-demonstrated fact that, in issues where people have incentives to withhold socially undesirable behaviours or opinions, the absence of an interviewer facilitates their expression. (4) www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Survey measures of democratic attitudes and social desirability bias | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Survey measures of democratic attitudes and social desirability bias
www.cambridge.org

However, evidence of this “social desirability bias” is surprisingly scarce. For example, list experiments — allowing people to respond indirectly to interviewers— showed very small and/or insignificant differences between direct & indirect questioning about democracy. (3)

The concern with people's untruthfulness about democracy is so prevalent that it has almost become an assumption, justifying alternative measurement strategies and even entirely new research designs, as seen in Inglehart & Welzel and Svolik, among others. (2)
Long ago, in a study of the democratic attitudes in Germany, Dalton raised the possibility of “Fragebogendemokraten” (questionnaire democrats): people who hesitate to express their sincere dislike for “democracy” in surveys, providing instead the “socially desirable” response (1)
4/6 🧵Using survey experiment, Magalhães et al (2025) in @ispp-pops.bsky.social show voters (in 🇵🇹) support weaker due process rights for corruption suspect from opposing party vs their own party. Out-group derogation prevails in-group favoritism in corruption evaluation. https://doi.org/p4qt

With David Pimenta, a piece about the latest legislative elections in Portugal. www.maspoderlocal.com/index.php/mp...
Shattering the Duopoly: The 2025 Portuguese Elections and the Rise of the Radical Right | Más Poder Local
www.maspoderlocal.com

Perhaps one case where external validity issues are less concerning? ;-)

We already knew how party preferences bias electoral/vertical accountability for alleged corruption. Now we know that, in horizontal accountability, we must always protect people’s due process rights but maybe not so much of those nasty politicians I dislike. (End)

The main result is easy to describe: the importance of the rights of investigated politicians depends on our relationship with their party. It’s very important to protect those rights when we like the party, less so when we don’t. (4)

However, the scenarios we presented varied randomly. In some cases, the politician under investigation was the leader of the respondent’s preferred party, in others just a regular party member, and in others, the same roles but from the parties the subjects liked the least. (3)

Then we asked them to tell us how important the right to privacy, to a good name and reputation, and to the presumption of innocence should be in that investigation (using more concrete and accessible language). (2)
This is a catastrophe. While Finland has downgraded the MDPI and Frontiers journals to level 0 (meaning these publications are not recognized for research evaluation purposes), Germany has signed an agreement to promote publications in MDPI journals.