Owen Griffiths
@ogriff79.bsky.social
Arts, photography, film, astronomy & weather. Hoping to keep this place less political and argumentative than twitter, but I'm left of centre and believe in a fair society and being kind to each other... And yes, I do resemble Bevis in real life.
November 17, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Some model output suggests an #ssw sudden stratospheric warming event may take place soon..
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming?
Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is a meteorological event that can have a significant impact on winter weather, particularly in the UK and across Europe.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
November 17, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Some model output suggests an #ssw sudden stratospheric warming event may take place soon..
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Will be watching with interest over the weeks ahead, given we have so many weather drivers going into the winter months this year, which are in support of cold conditions:
1. Weak la nina
2. Well established E QBO
3. Strong W Pacific MJO
4. Very -IOD
5. Steadily weakening SPV
1. Weak la nina
2. Well established E QBO
3. Strong W Pacific MJO
4. Very -IOD
5. Steadily weakening SPV
November 17, 2025 at 7:51 AM
Will be watching with interest over the weeks ahead, given we have so many weather drivers going into the winter months this year, which are in support of cold conditions:
1. Weak la nina
2. Well established E QBO
3. Strong W Pacific MJO
4. Very -IOD
5. Steadily weakening SPV
1. Weak la nina
2. Well established E QBO
3. Strong W Pacific MJO
4. Very -IOD
5. Steadily weakening SPV
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
There has been some talk of a second warming occurring during late November to early December, and the extended ECM seems to have perhaps picked up on this today with a 'double dip' in the mean and seems to bring zonal winds just below 0 m/s at 10 hPa so a technical SSW occurs.
November 16, 2025 at 8:28 PM
There has been some talk of a second warming occurring during late November to early December, and the extended ECM seems to have perhaps picked up on this today with a 'double dip' in the mean and seems to bring zonal winds just below 0 m/s at 10 hPa so a technical SSW occurs.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Recent model guidance appears to be toning down warm up following cold spell.
Jet stream remains on a southerly course into Europe with chillier air feeding in from near Greenland. Noticing not much west to east mobility in Atlantic sector, so I’m doubtful it would become wet and windy in late Nov
Jet stream remains on a southerly course into Europe with chillier air feeding in from near Greenland. Noticing not much west to east mobility in Atlantic sector, so I’m doubtful it would become wet and windy in late Nov
November 16, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Recent model guidance appears to be toning down warm up following cold spell.
Jet stream remains on a southerly course into Europe with chillier air feeding in from near Greenland. Noticing not much west to east mobility in Atlantic sector, so I’m doubtful it would become wet and windy in late Nov
Jet stream remains on a southerly course into Europe with chillier air feeding in from near Greenland. Noticing not much west to east mobility in Atlantic sector, so I’m doubtful it would become wet and windy in late Nov
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
528 dam line moves through southern England on Wednesday, with a very small risk of any features moving in on the back of the low pressure system heading SE into Benelux. It will feel cold, although considering the northerly direction, it should be dry and certainly sunnier.
November 16, 2025 at 5:26 PM
528 dam line moves through southern England on Wednesday, with a very small risk of any features moving in on the back of the low pressure system heading SE into Benelux. It will feel cold, although considering the northerly direction, it should be dry and certainly sunnier.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Things are turning colder now
Here last Sunday's temperatures relative to today
Even colder air incoming this week though
Here today's 850hpa temperatures relative to next Thursday
Here last Sunday's temperatures relative to today
Even colder air incoming this week though
Here today's 850hpa temperatures relative to next Thursday
November 16, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Things are turning colder now
Here last Sunday's temperatures relative to today
Even colder air incoming this week though
Here today's 850hpa temperatures relative to next Thursday
Here last Sunday's temperatures relative to today
Even colder air incoming this week though
Here today's 850hpa temperatures relative to next Thursday
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Particularly chilly air in place this coming Thursday
Sub 528dam 1000-500hpa thickness air across most of central and northern Europe 🌡📉
Sub 528dam 1000-500hpa thickness air across most of central and northern Europe 🌡📉
November 16, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Particularly chilly air in place this coming Thursday
Sub 528dam 1000-500hpa thickness air across most of central and northern Europe 🌡📉
Sub 528dam 1000-500hpa thickness air across most of central and northern Europe 🌡📉
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
The start of a widely colder spell of weather..
November 16, 2025 at 4:40 PM
The start of a widely colder spell of weather..
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
EC teasing us with a major ssw sudden stratospheric warming aka 10hpa 60N zonal mean zonal wind reversal, then more recently chickening 🐔 out
Meanwhile GFS, says let me have a go!
...and UKMO?... well I could tell you but would have to shoot you afterwards 😉
Meanwhile GFS, says let me have a go!
...and UKMO?... well I could tell you but would have to shoot you afterwards 😉
November 15, 2025 at 8:46 PM
EC teasing us with a major ssw sudden stratospheric warming aka 10hpa 60N zonal mean zonal wind reversal, then more recently chickening 🐔 out
Meanwhile GFS, says let me have a go!
...and UKMO?... well I could tell you but would have to shoot you afterwards 😉
Meanwhile GFS, says let me have a go!
...and UKMO?... well I could tell you but would have to shoot you afterwards 😉
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Saturn with Tethys, Dione, and Rhea on September 2nd, 2025. 12 years to the night after my first shot of the ringed planet with an EdgeHD 8 and original USB 2.0 ASI120MM.
#Astronomy #Astrophotography
#Astronomy #Astrophotography
November 15, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Saturn with Tethys, Dione, and Rhea on September 2nd, 2025. 12 years to the night after my first shot of the ringed planet with an EdgeHD 8 and original USB 2.0 ASI120MM.
#Astronomy #Astrophotography
#Astronomy #Astrophotography
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Colder Arctic air on the way for the week ahead..🌡📉
November 15, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Colder Arctic air on the way for the week ahead..🌡📉
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Big changes ahead in the coming days
🌡📉
🌡📉
November 14, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Big changes ahead in the coming days
🌡📉
🌡📉
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
EC model output for 12Z this Sunday from its 12Z 1st November run vs today's 12Z run..
I'm impressed!
I'm impressed!
November 14, 2025 at 11:50 PM
EC model output for 12Z this Sunday from its 12Z 1st November run vs today's 12Z run..
I'm impressed!
I'm impressed!
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
The ensemble mean from today's IFS subseasonal run almost predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record 😮
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
November 12, 2025 at 8:32 PM
The ensemble mean from today's IFS subseasonal run almost predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record 😮
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
November 12, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
17.7C at Writtle today, and 11 sites 17C+
November 12, 2025 at 7:18 PM
17.7C at Writtle today, and 11 sites 17C+
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Not the favoured outcome by any means, and I’m mostly posting this for fun (and my own interest in “unseen” model extremes), but the GFS 18Z has an historic major SSW on 26 November.
This would be the earliest in reliable records, beating 28 Nov 1968.
Not a forecast — just for interest!
This would be the earliest in reliable records, beating 28 Nov 1968.
Not a forecast — just for interest!
November 10, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Not the favoured outcome by any means, and I’m mostly posting this for fun (and my own interest in “unseen” model extremes), but the GFS 18Z has an historic major SSW on 26 November.
This would be the earliest in reliable records, beating 28 Nov 1968.
Not a forecast — just for interest!
This would be the earliest in reliable records, beating 28 Nov 1968.
Not a forecast — just for interest!
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Having peaked recently with W winds 10hpa 60N at ~70mph, the spv stratospheric polar vortex is now weakening as EC analysis confirms...but where's this now heading?...one to 👀 with interest for sure..
November 9, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Having peaked recently with W winds 10hpa 60N at ~70mph, the spv stratospheric polar vortex is now weakening as EC analysis confirms...but where's this now heading?...one to 👀 with interest for sure..