Owen Griffiths
@ogriff79.bsky.social
Arts, photography, film, astronomy & weather. Hoping to keep this place less political and argumentative than twitter, but I'm left of centre and believe in a fair society and being kind to each other... And yes, I do resemble Bevis in real life.
๐คฃ We all will, don't worry.
February 10, 2026 at 7:27 PM
๐คฃ We all will, don't worry.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
If GEFS is on to something, there's a big & persistent regime shift coming across North America which would bring hints of spring to the east of the continent after such prolonged cold โ and kick the North Atlantic jet out of its persistent southerly state, too.
February 10, 2026 at 5:08 PM
If GEFS is on to something, there's a big & persistent regime shift coming across North America which would bring hints of spring to the east of the continent after such prolonged cold โ and kick the North Atlantic jet out of its persistent southerly state, too.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
I'm crying. ๐คฃ๐คฃ๐คฃ๐คฃ
February 9, 2026 at 8:34 PM
I'm crying. ๐คฃ๐คฃ๐คฃ๐คฃ
Ensembles will give a better idea. I'm not convinced of anything exciting.
February 9, 2026 at 5:53 PM
Ensembles will give a better idea. I'm not convinced of anything exciting.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
The Met Office has launched its most significant scientific upgrade in more than three years, a major step forward for the UKโs weather and climate science capability...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
Met Office launches major upgrade to forecasting system
The Met Office has launched its most significant scientific upgrade in more than three years, a major step forward for the UKโs weather and climate science capability.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
February 9, 2026 at 1:04 AM
The Met Office has launched its most significant scientific upgrade in more than three years, a major step forward for the UKโs weather and climate science capability...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
A reduction in spread seems to indicate that a colder spell of weather is likely to occur around the 12th, followed by a fairly quick bounce back to milder weather not long afterwards. A colder/drier weekend coming up before a return to milder and more unsettled conditions.
[1/5] Cold still emerging for mid-month with GFS leading at -7.7ยฐC by Friday 14th, though signal has weakened from previous runs. Models show split forecast: relatively mild through Wednesday 11th (reaching +4.2ยฐC), followed by sharp cooling into the 13th-15th window.
February 8, 2026 at 9:01 PM
A reduction in spread seems to indicate that a colder spell of weather is likely to occur around the 12th, followed by a fairly quick bounce back to milder weather not long afterwards. A colder/drier weekend coming up before a return to milder and more unsettled conditions.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
He does, not that it will do them much good.
February 8, 2026 at 7:35 PM
He does, not that it will do them much good.
What did oyu expect? ๐
February 8, 2026 at 6:50 PM
What did oyu expect? ๐
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Asylum seekers are not โillegal immigrantsโ. No matter how normalised this term has become, I will not use it, and I will always point out its ugliness.
February 8, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Asylum seekers are not โillegal immigrantsโ. No matter how normalised this term has become, I will not use it, and I will always point out its ugliness.
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Twats
February 7, 2026 at 4:06 PM
Twats
@winchesterweather.bsky.social not sure there's much point
[1/5] Strong cold signal for next week, with all four models converging on a sharp drop. Multi-model mean shows steady cooling through the forecast, from around +1ยฐC early next week to -6ยฐC by Saturday 14th-Sunday 15th February.
February 7, 2026 at 8:34 AM
@winchesterweather.bsky.social not sure there's much point
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
[1/3] MOGREPS has shifted significantly colder since yesterday's run - now forecasting progressive cooling from +2.3C today to -4.5C by Friday 13th, a marked downward revision (previous run: -2.0C by 13th).
February 6, 2026 at 9:02 PM
[1/3] MOGREPS has shifted significantly colder since yesterday's run - now forecasting progressive cooling from +2.3C today to -4.5C by Friday 13th, a marked downward revision (previous run: -2.0C by 13th).
[1/4] Models firming on sharp cold from next week - all four showing -5ยฐC to -7ยฐC at 850hPa around 14th-15th February, with GEM and ECM coldest. Near term stays mild through the weekend (around +1ยฐC), but cold signal strengthens into midweek before the plunge.
February 6, 2026 at 8:39 PM
Oh look a chart that mirrors my evaporating remaining hope for winter... ๐ญ
๐คฃ
bsky.app/profile/wxd-...
๐คฃ
bsky.app/profile/wxd-...
๐ GEFS SSW: WATCH โ (13%)
4/31 members show reversal signal in 5-16 day window.
Vortex currently moderate (26 m/s).
(First run to reach threshold in 24h)
4/31 members show reversal signal in 5-16 day window.
Vortex currently moderate (26 m/s).
(First run to reach threshold in 24h)
February 6, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Oh look a chart that mirrors my evaporating remaining hope for winter... ๐ญ
๐คฃ
bsky.app/profile/wxd-...
๐คฃ
bsky.app/profile/wxd-...
Reposted by Owen Griffiths
The 21 bus is now rocking the global warming stripes - love it. #ShowYourStripes
February 6, 2026 at 12:30 PM
The 21 bus is now rocking the global warming stripes - love it. #ShowYourStripes
It will end up in Turkey by next week
February 6, 2026 at 5:02 PM
It will end up in Turkey by next week
[1/3] Mild peak Friday 6th (+2C, Yellow warning issued), then steady cooling through next week. Models converge on cold signal mid-month - hitting -1.3C by Friday 13th, coldest around Sunday 15th (-5 to -6C across ECM/AIFS/GEM).
February 5, 2026 at 10:08 PM