MetJam
@metjam.co.uk
Jamie.
BSc Environmental Science Student at University of Reading.
Avid weather nut from coastal Kent doing weather updates for the SE.
Space weather & astronomy thrown in whenever that looks interesting too!
metjam.co.uk
BSc Environmental Science Student at University of Reading.
Avid weather nut from coastal Kent doing weather updates for the SE.
Space weather & astronomy thrown in whenever that looks interesting too!
metjam.co.uk
Pinned
MetJam
@metjam.co.uk
· Nov 13
Hello Bluesky - I suppose I had better put somewhat of an introduction together considering the flurry of followers I’ve had! I’m an avid weather nut and will post anything that interests in me that regard so feel free to follow if that’s what you want to see 😂
I thought I'd highlight the Met Office's extended outlook, as I think it rounds off the outlook very well, aligning with what is expected. For us in the SE, we would want E'ly to NE'ly winds for any potential wintry showers but overall it's a cold and dry outlook.
December 28, 2025 at 3:25 PM
I thought I'd highlight the Met Office's extended outlook, as I think it rounds off the outlook very well, aligning with what is expected. For us in the SE, we would want E'ly to NE'ly winds for any potential wintry showers but overall it's a cold and dry outlook.
Ensembles certainly have a very solid agreement on the cold dip just after the 30th, although the spread begins to differ more widely into the New Year and after (which seems to be the main focus for anything interesting) - still needs a day or two to firm up on more details 👍
All four models now lock onto a sharp cold plunge for Dec 30, with ECM hitting -7.6°C at 850hPa. This is the third consecutive run strengthening the cold signal. After a mild spell through the weekend, expect a dramatic drop into New Year.
December 28, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Ensembles certainly have a very solid agreement on the cold dip just after the 30th, although the spread begins to differ more widely into the New Year and after (which seems to be the main focus for anything interesting) - still needs a day or two to firm up on more details 👍
Met Office 120-hour chart for New Year's Day - 528 dam line moving south down the UK
December 28, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Met Office 120-hour chart for New Year's Day - 528 dam line moving south down the UK
It's always nice to flick through old files - it's been nearly five years since the last significant snowfall here in Herne Bay, which occurred in February 2021. It really does not feel like almost five years ago but it does make you yearn for another one soon 😆
December 27, 2025 at 9:54 PM
It's always nice to flick through old files - it's been nearly five years since the last significant snowfall here in Herne Bay, which occurred in February 2021. It really does not feel like almost five years ago but it does make you yearn for another one soon 😆
It’s important to realise that sometimes I am a little thick as luckily models seem a bit better today and more northerly and cooler - will give a proper update in a couple days 👍🏻
December 27, 2025 at 5:54 PM
It’s important to realise that sometimes I am a little thick as luckily models seem a bit better today and more northerly and cooler - will give a proper update in a couple days 👍🏻
Reposted by MetJam
Just launched @wxd-london.bsky.social - an automated 4-model ensemble forecast bot for London UK 850hPa. Posts 2x daily with AI-generated analysis and charts. Cold spell incoming for New Year! 🌡️ #wx bsky.app/profile/wxd-...
**London 850hPa: Cold blast incoming Dec 30-Jan 3.** All 4 models agree on sharp drop from +7°C to -5°C around New Year. GFS coldest (-5 to -6°C), ECMWF IFS/GEM milder (-3 to -4°C). Huge spread beyond Jan 1 (up to 17°C) - models diverge sharply on cold spell duration... ❓ Confidence: low
December 27, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Just launched @wxd-london.bsky.social - an automated 4-model ensemble forecast bot for London UK 850hPa. Posts 2x daily with AI-generated analysis and charts. Cold spell incoming for New Year! 🌡️ #wx bsky.app/profile/wxd-...
First meteor on the new weather camera this morning at 03:16 UTC.
December 27, 2025 at 12:52 PM
First meteor on the new weather camera this morning at 03:16 UTC.
Brilliant models all around this evening for snow lovers, if you live in Berlin - seems the trend for milder PM NW'lies is apparent across all models now. Time for another beer in memory of what could have been 👍
December 26, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Brilliant models all around this evening for snow lovers, if you live in Berlin - seems the trend for milder PM NW'lies is apparent across all models now. Time for another beer in memory of what could have been 👍
The biggest spread in model output for any cold post New Year seems to be in the energy of the polar vortex west of Greenland which will determine the position of any high. I'm still not seeing anything significantly cold - maybe more of a trend to NW'lies instead of N'lies.
December 26, 2025 at 11:25 AM
The biggest spread in model output for any cold post New Year seems to be in the energy of the polar vortex west of Greenland which will determine the position of any high. I'm still not seeing anything significantly cold - maybe more of a trend to NW'lies instead of N'lies.
Have a very Merry Christmas everyone 🎅
December 25, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Have a very Merry Christmas everyone 🎅
Reposted by MetJam
December 24, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Punching through inversions, you can see where the weather stations on the Cairngorms (1245 m) and on Aonach Mòr (1130 m) have done so with dew points of -34.3°C and -17.5°C, respectively. 12 UTC Lerwick sounding shows this sinking very dry air around 750 hPa.
December 24, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Punching through inversions, you can see where the weather stations on the Cairngorms (1245 m) and on Aonach Mòr (1130 m) have done so with dew points of -34.3°C and -17.5°C, respectively. 12 UTC Lerwick sounding shows this sinking very dry air around 750 hPa.
Reposted by MetJam
Happy Christmas, especially to those who struggle at this time of year. Chilly but probably no snow for most in the UK and for my Christmas Message this year (!), here's the % change in winter snowfall for the last 21 years vs the previous 21 years in the eyes of ECMWF C3S seasonal forecasts
December 24, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Happy Christmas, especially to those who struggle at this time of year. Chilly but probably no snow for most in the UK and for my Christmas Message this year (!), here's the % change in winter snowfall for the last 21 years vs the previous 21 years in the eyes of ECMWF C3S seasonal forecasts
The ECM AI model must have consumed more alcohol than I will be in the next week when it was running this afternoon
December 24, 2025 at 5:34 PM
The ECM AI model must have consumed more alcohol than I will be in the next week when it was running this afternoon
A rather nippy Christmas Eve - windchill of -2°C along here
December 24, 2025 at 2:00 PM
A rather nippy Christmas Eve - windchill of -2°C along here
My Christmas before Christmas - seeing 2001: A Space Odyssey on the IMAX screen at the Science Museum, was unbelievable.
December 23, 2025 at 10:19 PM
My Christmas before Christmas - seeing 2001: A Space Odyssey on the IMAX screen at the Science Museum, was unbelievable.
Merry Christmas Eve Eve - feels festively cold and dull but should be much better this time tomorrow and Christmas Day looks like a rather cold sunny day 😁
December 23, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Merry Christmas Eve Eve - feels festively cold and dull but should be much better this time tomorrow and Christmas Day looks like a rather cold sunny day 😁
It certainly did, in return, we've got some nice sunny skies instead 😁
December 23, 2025 at 11:07 AM
It certainly did, in return, we've got some nice sunny skies instead 😁
Reposted by MetJam
As we approach the end of the year, 2025 is on track to be one of the UK’s warmest years on record, joining 2022 and 2023 in the top three warmest years.
Find out more in our news release 👇
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
Find out more in our news release 👇
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
December 23, 2025 at 10:16 AM
As we approach the end of the year, 2025 is on track to be one of the UK’s warmest years on record, joining 2022 and 2023 in the top three warmest years.
Find out more in our news release 👇
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
Find out more in our news release 👇
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
Nothing appears to have changed on this point of depth of cold - lots of surface cold modelled, but the actual airmasses themselves do not appear to be anything with a significant cold depth (<-8°C 850 hPa). It'll certainly still feel cold but nothing *too* cold at the minute.
December 22, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Nothing appears to have changed on this point of depth of cold - lots of surface cold modelled, but the actual airmasses themselves do not appear to be anything with a significant cold depth (<-8°C 850 hPa). It'll certainly still feel cold but nothing *too* cold at the minute.
Christmas Day:
- The coldest Christmas since 2020, with maximums of 2-5°C.
- Staying dry with a very low risk of any wintry showers in the east.
- Largely sunny (perhaps away from the far south, depending on the final position of the cold pool).
- The coldest Christmas since 2020, with maximums of 2-5°C.
- Staying dry with a very low risk of any wintry showers in the east.
- Largely sunny (perhaps away from the far south, depending on the final position of the cold pool).
December 21, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Christmas Day:
- The coldest Christmas since 2020, with maximums of 2-5°C.
- Staying dry with a very low risk of any wintry showers in the east.
- Largely sunny (perhaps away from the far south, depending on the final position of the cold pool).
- The coldest Christmas since 2020, with maximums of 2-5°C.
- Staying dry with a very low risk of any wintry showers in the east.
- Largely sunny (perhaps away from the far south, depending on the final position of the cold pool).
Reposted by MetJam
Two years since this awesome auto-caption fail on a @metoffice.gov.uk livestream. 😂
December 20, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Two years since this awesome auto-caption fail on a @metoffice.gov.uk livestream. 😂
Flip, flop with MOGREPS - 06 UTC ensemble suite is now back to a -2°C 850 hPa mean for Christmas
December 20, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Flip, flop with MOGREPS - 06 UTC ensemble suite is now back to a -2°C 850 hPa mean for Christmas
Reposted by MetJam
Continue the research...
December 20, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Continue the research...
Having a look at the MOGREPS ensemble suite this morning, there's certainly been a substantial dip to colder solutions in the last day or so and a reduction in the spread. It still looks fairly uncertain, though, especially since there have been such jumps between runs.
December 20, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Having a look at the MOGREPS ensemble suite this morning, there's certainly been a substantial dip to colder solutions in the last day or so and a reduction in the spread. It still looks fairly uncertain, though, especially since there have been such jumps between runs.