MetJam
@metjam.co.uk
Jamie.
BSc Environmental Science Student at University of Reading.
Avid weather nut from coastal Kent doing weather updates for the SE.
Space weather & astronomy thrown in whenever that looks interesting too!
metjam.co.uk
BSc Environmental Science Student at University of Reading.
Avid weather nut from coastal Kent doing weather updates for the SE.
Space weather & astronomy thrown in whenever that looks interesting too!
metjam.co.uk
NOAA expects a 1400 km/s arrival speed for CME tomorrow - mad.
November 11, 2025 at 8:41 PM
NOAA expects a 1400 km/s arrival speed for CME tomorrow - mad.
Aurora prospects for tomorrow night are certainly a bit scuppered by the cloud and rain forecast - we will just have to see how it plays out 😂
November 11, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Aurora prospects for tomorrow night are certainly a bit scuppered by the cloud and rain forecast - we will just have to see how it plays out 😂
Lots going on with the Sun and some aurora to be had soon by the looks of things - various CMEs over the last few days and a very fast CME from the Sun just after 10 UTC this morning from an X5.1 (!) flare. I'm sadly stuck on a field class till Friday but will keep an eye out!
November 11, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Lots going on with the Sun and some aurora to be had soon by the looks of things - various CMEs over the last few days and a very fast CME from the Sun just after 10 UTC this morning from an X5.1 (!) flare. I'm sadly stuck on a field class till Friday but will keep an eye out!
The environmental science degree is kicking in this afternoon - soil sampling in torrential downpours 😵💫
November 10, 2025 at 12:46 PM
The environmental science degree is kicking in this afternoon - soil sampling in torrential downpours 😵💫
X1.79 flare from Earth-facing AR4274 just after 0730 UTC this morning with a possible full halo CME to accompany it - hopefully this CME is a bit more interesting than the duds earlier this week.
November 9, 2025 at 11:10 AM
X1.79 flare from Earth-facing AR4274 just after 0730 UTC this morning with a possible full halo CME to accompany it - hopefully this CME is a bit more interesting than the duds earlier this week.
A nice moonlit night tonight 😁
November 8, 2025 at 11:49 PM
A nice moonlit night tonight 😁
The current very mild period for November is showing up nicely on the annual Central England Mean Temperature graph for this year - November is currently 6.2°C above the 1961-1990 CET average and 5.2°C above the 1991-2020 CET average.
November 8, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The current very mild period for November is showing up nicely on the annual Central England Mean Temperature graph for this year - November is currently 6.2°C above the 1961-1990 CET average and 5.2°C above the 1991-2020 CET average.
How many troughs for you good sir?
November 8, 2025 at 12:43 PM
How many troughs for you good sir?
Continued momentum from neutral to weakly positive AAM despite a presumed fall as the MJO transitions from Phase 5 to 7 (Weickmann et al., 2023) looks to help sustain extension of the Pacific jet, although the idea of how this 'momentum' helps going further into the future is still up for question.
November 7, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Continued momentum from neutral to weakly positive AAM despite a presumed fall as the MJO transitions from Phase 5 to 7 (Weickmann et al., 2023) looks to help sustain extension of the Pacific jet, although the idea of how this 'momentum' helps going further into the future is still up for question.
Longer term:
MJO looks to transition from Phase 5 into 6 & 7, which may help to reinforce any blocking pattern in place by continued 'excitement' of Rossby wave trains with a lag time of ~10 days (Skinner et al., 2023) so we would likely start to feel these effects by early to mid-December.
MJO looks to transition from Phase 5 into 6 & 7, which may help to reinforce any blocking pattern in place by continued 'excitement' of Rossby wave trains with a lag time of ~10 days (Skinner et al., 2023) so we would likely start to feel these effects by early to mid-December.
November 7, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Longer term:
MJO looks to transition from Phase 5 into 6 & 7, which may help to reinforce any blocking pattern in place by continued 'excitement' of Rossby wave trains with a lag time of ~10 days (Skinner et al., 2023) so we would likely start to feel these effects by early to mid-December.
MJO looks to transition from Phase 5 into 6 & 7, which may help to reinforce any blocking pattern in place by continued 'excitement' of Rossby wave trains with a lag time of ~10 days (Skinner et al., 2023) so we would likely start to feel these effects by early to mid-December.
Momentum pumped into the atmosphere by a +EAMT (East Asian Mountain Torque) event will extend the Pacific jet and allow wave breaking downstream, likely leading to blocking developing to our W. The idea of how cold or mild it may get will likely be based on more 'local' factors (i.e. trough to SW).
November 7, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Momentum pumped into the atmosphere by a +EAMT (East Asian Mountain Torque) event will extend the Pacific jet and allow wave breaking downstream, likely leading to blocking developing to our W. The idea of how cold or mild it may get will likely be based on more 'local' factors (i.e. trough to SW).
Have a fantastic evening everyone - if a CME will arrive it will be now 😂
November 6, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Have a fantastic evening everyone - if a CME will arrive it will be now 😂
The HUXt model shows just how busy it has been in terms of solar activity - lots of random features and arrivals expected over the next few days. It'll be important to keep an eye on things (aka keeping my eyes glued to a screen 🤣)
November 6, 2025 at 1:39 PM
The HUXt model shows just how busy it has been in terms of solar activity - lots of random features and arrivals expected over the next few days. It'll be important to keep an eye on things (aka keeping my eyes glued to a screen 🤣)
17.2C here in Herne Bay - very mild.
November 6, 2025 at 12:42 PM
17.2C here in Herne Bay - very mild.
First CCOR-1 coronograph imagery is slowly trickling out of the latest flare earlier tonight but seems to confirm the idea that the bulk of this CME is headed away from Earth although there may still be a slight component headed towards Earth.
November 5, 2025 at 11:51 PM
First CCOR-1 coronograph imagery is slowly trickling out of the latest flare earlier tonight but seems to confirm the idea that the bulk of this CME is headed away from Earth although there may still be a slight component headed towards Earth.
-14 Bz is no match for warm front gloom
November 5, 2025 at 10:33 PM
-14 Bz is no match for warm front gloom
Very eruptive M8.65 flare from the Sun - bulk of the ejecta seems to be headed northward but can’t dismiss an Earth bound component.
November 5, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Very eruptive M8.65 flare from the Sun - bulk of the ejecta seems to be headed northward but can’t dismiss an Earth bound component.
The pre-conditioning currently does seem like it's easing us nicely into a good storm if it does all go to plan (i.e. geoeffective). The fact we've got active sunspots rotating into view alongside this does make it seem like we may get a nice display sooner rather than later.
November 5, 2025 at 9:25 PM
The pre-conditioning currently does seem like it's easing us nicely into a good storm if it does all go to plan (i.e. geoeffective). The fact we've got active sunspots rotating into view alongside this does make it seem like we may get a nice display sooner rather than later.
The @uniofreading.bsky.social HUXt model goes for arrival at 0856 UTC on Friday morning (suspect it may be pushed a bit earlier) with a speed of 809 km/s. This, in conjunction with influence from a coronal hole, could make for an interesting geomagnetic storm if all aligns well (G3/G4?).
November 5, 2025 at 9:21 PM
The @uniofreading.bsky.social HUXt model goes for arrival at 0856 UTC on Friday morning (suspect it may be pushed a bit earlier) with a speed of 809 km/s. This, in conjunction with influence from a coronal hole, could make for an interesting geomagnetic storm if all aligns well (G3/G4?).
For no particular reason at all, here's the aurora that occurred 2 years ago on the 5th of November.
November 5, 2025 at 6:06 PM
For no particular reason at all, here's the aurora that occurred 2 years ago on the 5th of November.
There may be a slight Earth-directed component from the M7.4 flare that occurred this morning from AR4274, although evidently the bulk of it is headed NE away from Earth. If this region can sustain what it's doing then we might be in for a nice treat if it doesn't give up! 😂
November 5, 2025 at 12:48 PM
There may be a slight Earth-directed component from the M7.4 flare that occurred this morning from AR4274, although evidently the bulk of it is headed NE away from Earth. If this region can sustain what it's doing then we might be in for a nice treat if it doesn't give up! 😂
1909's anomalous Monthly Weather Report definitely raised eyebrows. 92°F at Epsom and 90°F at Maidenhead seemed to be wildly anomalous, especially considering Maidenhead's reading was actually 85.7°F so not too sure what happened there!
November 5, 2025 at 12:31 PM
1909's anomalous Monthly Weather Report definitely raised eyebrows. 92°F at Epsom and 90°F at Maidenhead seemed to be wildly anomalous, especially considering Maidenhead's reading was actually 85.7°F so not too sure what happened there!