Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
@oacarah.bsky.social
Professor
Practical Causal Inference Lab Co-Director
**Views are mine**
#Epidemiology #EpiSky #CausalInference #CausalSky #PublicHealth #StatsSky #Stats #Medsky
Practical Causal Inference Lab Co-Director
**Views are mine**
#Epidemiology #EpiSky #CausalInference #CausalSky #PublicHealth #StatsSky #Stats #Medsky
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
DEBATE: "Is AI the future of health and social science?"
For those in London on 15 Dec 2025, don't miss this fun in person debate between me and David Bann sponsored by @ncrm.ac.uk!
Will the arguments change anyone's mind? 🤔
Sign up to attend IN PERSON: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/is-ai-the-...
For those in London on 15 Dec 2025, don't miss this fun in person debate between me and David Bann sponsored by @ncrm.ac.uk!
Will the arguments change anyone's mind? 🤔
Sign up to attend IN PERSON: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/is-ai-the-...
October 21, 2025 at 10:49 AM
DEBATE: "Is AI the future of health and social science?"
For those in London on 15 Dec 2025, don't miss this fun in person debate between me and David Bann sponsored by @ncrm.ac.uk!
Will the arguments change anyone's mind? 🤔
Sign up to attend IN PERSON: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/is-ai-the-...
For those in London on 15 Dec 2025, don't miss this fun in person debate between me and David Bann sponsored by @ncrm.ac.uk!
Will the arguments change anyone's mind? 🤔
Sign up to attend IN PERSON: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/is-ai-the-...
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
Even as the anti-vax lobby erodes public trust, new evidence confirms that "immunizations against Covid-19, RSV, and influenza have shown consistent effectiveness & safety and are associated with a substantially reduced risk of hospitalization & severe disease"
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
October 29, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Even as the anti-vax lobby erodes public trust, new evidence confirms that "immunizations against Covid-19, RSV, and influenza have shown consistent effectiveness & safety and are associated with a substantially reduced risk of hospitalization & severe disease"
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/uc-wins...
#UniversityofCalifornia #Science #Progress
@uofcalifornia.bsky.social
#UniversityofCalifornia #Science #Progress
@uofcalifornia.bsky.social
UC wins 5 Nobel Prizes in 3 days — and sets a new world record
These discoveries span decades and disciplines, but they all have one important thing in common: They’ve all relied on competitive funding from the federal government.
www.universityofcalifornia.edu
October 18, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
Respect to those who got here first.
October 13, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Respect to those who got here first.
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
COVID vaccine now universally available in California www.berkeleyside.org/2025/09/18/c...
COVID vaccine now universally available in California
A recommendation by Western states allows anyone over 6 months old to get a COVID-19 shot. California insurance providers will have to cover the cost.
www.berkeleyside.org
September 18, 2025 at 9:21 PM
COVID vaccine now universally available in California www.berkeleyside.org/2025/09/18/c...
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
Breaking with the CDC, @acog.org reaffirms support for #COVID19 vaccination in pregnant people.
Here’s what to know.
Here’s what to know.
ACOG Continues Recommending COVID-19 Vaccine During Pregnancy
This JAMA Medical News article discusses updated guidance on COVID-19 vaccination in pregnant people from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.
jamanetwork.com
September 12, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
I am here to say vaccines are awesome because guess what Denmark is close to completely eliminating the two most dangerous HPV strains (serotype 16 and 18) and with the cervical cancer.I think that is bloody AMAZING!!!!
bit.ly/4pbHxjT
bit.ly/4pbHxjT
Denmark close to wiping out leading cancer-causing HPV strains after vaccine roll-out
A nationwide study suggests infections with human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 have been virtually eliminated since vaccination began in 2008 – protecting even unvaccinated women.
bit.ly
September 8, 2025 at 9:52 PM
I am here to say vaccines are awesome because guess what Denmark is close to completely eliminating the two most dangerous HPV strains (serotype 16 and 18) and with the cervical cancer.I think that is bloody AMAZING!!!!
bit.ly/4pbHxjT
bit.ly/4pbHxjT
I have a new paper out on a simple way to do causal inference with left-censored outcomes. This comes up with environmental data because measurements often have a lower limit of detection -- e.g. a chemical is undetectable below a certain level
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Non-parametric treatment effect bounds for left-censored outcomes: estimating the effect of herbicide use on 2,4-D exposure
Causal inference is concerned with defining and estimating the effect of a exposure on an outcome. For example, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE), a causal inference concept, is defined as the pop...
www.tandfonline.com
September 5, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
💡A new paper by Elias Bareinboim and Drago Plecko underscores the intractability of ignorability assumptions commonly invoked in the potential outcomes framework, explains why structural causal models—explicitly grounded in well-defined causal mechanisms—are far easier to interpret. 1/2
August 24, 2025 at 1:19 PM
💡A new paper by Elias Bareinboim and Drago Plecko underscores the intractability of ignorability assumptions commonly invoked in the potential outcomes framework, explains why structural causal models—explicitly grounded in well-defined causal mechanisms—are far easier to interpret. 1/2
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
In response to the dismantling of the CDC, California, Oregon, and Washington have launched the West Coast Health Alliance, which will make their own science-based vaccine guidelines, and make sure vaccines are accessible to everyone.
September 3, 2025 at 6:18 PM
In response to the dismantling of the CDC, California, Oregon, and Washington have launched the West Coast Health Alliance, which will make their own science-based vaccine guidelines, and make sure vaccines are accessible to everyone.
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
Not for nothing, whenever someone conflates search algorithms, LLMs, and whatever the fuck AI is, I send them this article.
September 2, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Not for nothing, whenever someone conflates search algorithms, LLMs, and whatever the fuck AI is, I send them this article.
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
link 📈🤖
Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference (Cinelli, Feller, Imbens et al) Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer scie
Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference (Cinelli, Feller, Imbens et al) Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer scie
August 26, 2025 at 4:17 PM
link 📈🤖
Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference (Cinelli, Feller, Imbens et al) Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer scie
Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference (Cinelli, Feller, Imbens et al) Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer scie
Every week is worse than the previous one
August 29, 2025 at 9:02 PM
Every week is worse than the previous one
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
"Guns killed more children than any other cause- more than cancer, more than car crashes- for 3 years in a row."- Washington Post
434 school shootings since the Columbine massacre, and our country still refuses to do what's needed to keep our children safe.
Yet we keep sending our kids to school
434 school shootings since the Columbine massacre, and our country still refuses to do what's needed to keep our children safe.
Yet we keep sending our kids to school
August 28, 2025 at 2:56 PM
"Guns killed more children than any other cause- more than cancer, more than car crashes- for 3 years in a row."- Washington Post
434 school shootings since the Columbine massacre, and our country still refuses to do what's needed to keep our children safe.
Yet we keep sending our kids to school
434 school shootings since the Columbine massacre, and our country still refuses to do what's needed to keep our children safe.
Yet we keep sending our kids to school
On the Structural Basis of Conditional Ignorability
By Elias Bareinboim and Drago Plecko
#causalsky #statssky #stats #EpiSky
causalai.net/r120.pdf
By Elias Bareinboim and Drago Plecko
#causalsky #statssky #stats #EpiSky
causalai.net/r120.pdf
causalai.net
August 24, 2025 at 6:15 PM
On the Structural Basis of Conditional Ignorability
By Elias Bareinboim and Drago Plecko
#causalsky #statssky #stats #EpiSky
causalai.net/r120.pdf
By Elias Bareinboim and Drago Plecko
#causalsky #statssky #stats #EpiSky
causalai.net/r120.pdf
Reposted by Onyi Arah, MD, DSc, PhD
Thank you. To be clear, I did not merely “dismiss” AI as mid. My argument is that LLMs 1) are not intelligent 2) average textual responses in a way that is mid 3) most generous use cases are a revolution of middle skills that don’t produce anything ergo LLMs are in every demonstrable way mid.
For this article on what generative AI is actually doing to society once you cut through the hype, I referenced, drew on, and engaged with some interesting writing by @cwarzel.bsky.social @tressiemcphd.bsky.social @noupside.bsky.social @garethwatkins.bsky.social @himself.bsky.social.
The Third Algorithm
ChatGPT and other generative AI isn't about to create superintelligence, but even if what we see now is it, the impact is on the scale of Google search and algorithmic social media, except maybe worse
www.arcdigital.media
August 23, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Thank you. To be clear, I did not merely “dismiss” AI as mid. My argument is that LLMs 1) are not intelligent 2) average textual responses in a way that is mid 3) most generous use cases are a revolution of middle skills that don’t produce anything ergo LLMs are in every demonstrable way mid.