Michael Carpenter
@mikercarpenter.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at IISS. Former Ambassador to the OSCE, NSC Senior Director for Europe, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense. Personal views only.
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Danish pilots keep reporting sightings of little green men aboard civilian vessels coming from Russia. Unfortunately the authorities don’t want to discuss these sightings. But a veteran pilot with decades of experience is willing to talk.
Full story here:
danwatch.dk/militaerunif...
Full story here:
danwatch.dk/militaerunif...
Militæruniformer og totalt lukkethed: Øjenvidne slår alarm om russiske olieskibe
Han har sejlet i de danske farvande i over 40 år, men har aldrig set noget lignende det, der sker nu. Derfor slår han alarm i håbet om, at myndighederne vil rea
danwatch.dk
November 16, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Danish pilots keep reporting sightings of little green men aboard civilian vessels coming from Russia. Unfortunately the authorities don’t want to discuss these sightings. But a veteran pilot with decades of experience is willing to talk.
Full story here:
danwatch.dk/militaerunif...
Full story here:
danwatch.dk/militaerunif...
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Dutch intelligence suspends sharing arrangements with the US after concluding that high level intel was routinely being shared by the White House with their friends in the Kremlin. www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/n...
Nederlandse diensten delen minder informatie met de VS: ‘Soms vertellen we dingen niet meer’
Het aantal dreigingen dat op Nederland afkomt is groot, zien de hoofden van de AIVD en de MIVD elke dag: niet alleen Russische agressie, maar ook de opmars van China als digitale macht en binnenlands ...
www.volkskrant.nl
October 19, 2025 at 1:24 AM
Dutch intelligence suspends sharing arrangements with the US after concluding that high level intel was routinely being shared by the White House with their friends in the Kremlin. www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/n...
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Trump posts AI video showing him literally dumping shit on America
October 19, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Trump posts AI video showing him literally dumping shit on America
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
🥴🤡Trump envoy Witkoff pressed the Ukrainian delegation on handing over Donetsk region to Russia during a meeting on Friday, - WP.
He used the Kremlin's key argument that the region is predominantly Russian-speaking.
He used the Kremlin's key argument that the region is predominantly Russian-speaking.
October 19, 2025 at 6:02 AM
🥴🤡Trump envoy Witkoff pressed the Ukrainian delegation on handing over Donetsk region to Russia during a meeting on Friday, - WP.
He used the Kremlin's key argument that the region is predominantly Russian-speaking.
He used the Kremlin's key argument that the region is predominantly Russian-speaking.
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Russian Navy tug ALEKSANDR FROLOV directed jamming towards a Danish helicopter and a patrol ship a few days ago.
This was reported by NATO command Brunssum on X. The post was quickly deleted and NATO is now tight lipped.
A FROLOV stayed around Fehmarn Belt for 9 days.
This was reported by NATO command Brunssum on X. The post was quickly deleted and NATO is now tight lipped.
A FROLOV stayed around Fehmarn Belt for 9 days.
August 29, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Russian Navy tug ALEKSANDR FROLOV directed jamming towards a Danish helicopter and a patrol ship a few days ago.
This was reported by NATO command Brunssum on X. The post was quickly deleted and NATO is now tight lipped.
A FROLOV stayed around Fehmarn Belt for 9 days.
This was reported by NATO command Brunssum on X. The post was quickly deleted and NATO is now tight lipped.
A FROLOV stayed around Fehmarn Belt for 9 days.
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
In efforts to end the #RussiaUkraineWar, talk is accelerating about a European “reassurance force” for Ukraine.
Amb. @mikercarpenter.bsky.social on “its highly questionable viability”:
www.justsecurity.org/119673/ukrai...
Amb. @mikercarpenter.bsky.social on “its highly questionable viability”:
www.justsecurity.org/119673/ukrai...
The Fantasy of a European Reassurance Force for Ukraine
A European "reassurance force" for Ukraine risks being another notional "guarantee" offering little more than a false sense of security.
www.justsecurity.org
August 28, 2025 at 12:52 PM
In efforts to end the #RussiaUkraineWar, talk is accelerating about a European “reassurance force” for Ukraine.
Amb. @mikercarpenter.bsky.social on “its highly questionable viability”:
www.justsecurity.org/119673/ukrai...
Amb. @mikercarpenter.bsky.social on “its highly questionable viability”:
www.justsecurity.org/119673/ukrai...
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
🚨 BREAKING: Russia has struck the EU delegation building in Kyiv.
Read the developing story: ow.ly/N2RW50WNllP
Read the developing story: ow.ly/N2RW50WNllP
August 28, 2025 at 7:07 AM
🚨 BREAKING: Russia has struck the EU delegation building in Kyiv.
Read the developing story: ow.ly/N2RW50WNllP
Read the developing story: ow.ly/N2RW50WNllP
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
🚨 New episode: Who is playing who? Trump, Putin and the Alaska 'Peace Summit'
Will the leaders take a step towards a landmark peace deal, or will this go down as a diplomatic disaster?
Listen now on Global Player or wherever you get your pods 🎧
@markurban.bsky.social @mpolymer1.bsky.social
Will the leaders take a step towards a landmark peace deal, or will this go down as a diplomatic disaster?
Listen now on Global Player or wherever you get your pods 🎧
@markurban.bsky.social @mpolymer1.bsky.social
August 14, 2025 at 4:53 PM
🚨 New episode: Who is playing who? Trump, Putin and the Alaska 'Peace Summit'
Will the leaders take a step towards a landmark peace deal, or will this go down as a diplomatic disaster?
Listen now on Global Player or wherever you get your pods 🎧
@markurban.bsky.social @mpolymer1.bsky.social
Will the leaders take a step towards a landmark peace deal, or will this go down as a diplomatic disaster?
Listen now on Global Player or wherever you get your pods 🎧
@markurban.bsky.social @mpolymer1.bsky.social
“Earned on the battlefield”? Seriously?
NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker on Ukraine's territorial concessions: "No big chunks or sections are going to be just given that haven't been fought for or earned on the battlefield."
August 10, 2025 at 1:57 PM
“Earned on the battlefield”? Seriously?
Horrific
www.euronews.com/2025/08/08/s...
www.euronews.com/2025/08/08/s...
www.euronews.com
August 8, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Horrific
www.euronews.com/2025/08/08/s...
www.euronews.com/2025/08/08/s...
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Historians Politely Remind Nation To Check What's Happened In Past Before Making Any Big Decisions theonion.com/histori...
July 23, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Historians Politely Remind Nation To Check What's Happened In Past Before Making Any Big Decisions theonion.com/histori...
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
“Instead of prolonging the war by giving Ukraine too much military assistance, Kyiv’s foreign allies have prolonged it by giving too little, and often with significant delays,” argues @mikercarpenter.bsky.social.
Ukraine Can Still Win
Western half measures have prolonged the war, but decisive action now could end it.
www.foreignaffairs.com
July 15, 2025 at 6:25 PM
“Instead of prolonging the war by giving Ukraine too much military assistance, Kyiv’s foreign allies have prolonged it by giving too little, and often with significant delays,” argues @mikercarpenter.bsky.social.
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Ukraine cannot win without “a fundamental shift in Western strategy, one that combines a large boost in military assistance with more robust economic measures to constrain Russia’s war economy,” argues @mikercarpenter.bsky.social.
Ukraine Can Still Win
Western half measures have prolonged the war, but decisive action now could end it.
www.foreignaffairs.com
July 1, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Ukraine cannot win without “a fundamental shift in Western strategy, one that combines a large boost in military assistance with more robust economic measures to constrain Russia’s war economy,” argues @mikercarpenter.bsky.social.
My argument: how Ukraine can still win.
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
Ukraine Can Still Win
Western half measures have prolonged the war, but decisive action now could end it.
www.foreignaffairs.com
July 2, 2025 at 1:59 AM
My argument: how Ukraine can still win.
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Amazing. NYT has more confirmation that Trump's decision to bomb Iran was motivated in large part by the way the Israeli strikes were "playing" on Fox News, which drove him to want credit for it
June 23, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Amazing. NYT has more confirmation that Trump's decision to bomb Iran was motivated in large part by the way the Israeli strikes were "playing" on Fox News, which drove him to want credit for it
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Thank you so much for your support! Here’s a link to chip in: secure.actblue.com/donate/bb-bs...
I just gave to Bridget Brink!
Show your support with a contribution.
secure.actblue.com
June 18, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Thank you so much for your support! Here’s a link to chip in: secure.actblue.com/donate/bb-bs...
I was on @cbcnews-rss.bsky.social today to discuss the Trump administration’s next steps on Iran. Whatever decision he takes, he will alienate a part of his base.
2-week timeline: The CBC's Andrew Nichols talks with Michael Carpenter of the Atlantic Council
The White House says President Trump will make a decision on U.S. involvement in Iran by early July. Get the latest on CBCNews.ca, the CBC News App, and CBC News Network for breaking news and analysis...
na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
June 20, 2025 at 1:05 AM
I was on @cbcnews-rss.bsky.social today to discuss the Trump administration’s next steps on Iran. Whatever decision he takes, he will alienate a part of his base.
Ambassador Bridget Brink is an amazing and selfless public servant who has always stood for what’s right. I’ve had the privilege to work with her since 2007, when we first met. She is a true patriot and cares about what matters: improving the economy, fighting corruption, US national security.
I’ve dedicated my life to protecting democracy & fighting for freedom. It’s why we stood up to Putin and why I spoke out against Trump.
My next mission: fighting for what’s right here at home. I’m running for #MI07 because it's time to put Michigan families first and fight back.
My next mission: fighting for what’s right here at home. I’m running for #MI07 because it's time to put Michigan families first and fight back.
June 18, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Ambassador Bridget Brink is an amazing and selfless public servant who has always stood for what’s right. I’ve had the privilege to work with her since 2007, when we first met. She is a true patriot and cares about what matters: improving the economy, fighting corruption, US national security.
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Well that’s a way to start the meeting. Let’s talk about my bud Vlad and blame Obama for Russia not being part of this group anymore. 🤦🏽♂️
Good Lord. God Bless PM Mark Carney for his position standing there listening to this 💩 and not elbowing him in the throat. 🤦🏽♂️
Good Lord. God Bless PM Mark Carney for his position standing there listening to this 💩 and not elbowing him in the throat. 🤦🏽♂️
June 16, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Well that’s a way to start the meeting. Let’s talk about my bud Vlad and blame Obama for Russia not being part of this group anymore. 🤦🏽♂️
Good Lord. God Bless PM Mark Carney for his position standing there listening to this 💩 and not elbowing him in the throat. 🤦🏽♂️
Good Lord. God Bless PM Mark Carney for his position standing there listening to this 💩 and not elbowing him in the throat. 🤦🏽♂️
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
🧵
My small country, Estonia, population 1.3 million sent 2003-2014 over 2500 soldiers. 9 were killed in the line of duty. 109 wounded, half of them so seriously they could no longer lead a normal life.
In Iraq 2003-2009 we had more than 440 soldiers. 2 were killed. 18 seriously wounded.
1/n
My small country, Estonia, population 1.3 million sent 2003-2014 over 2500 soldiers. 9 were killed in the line of duty. 109 wounded, half of them so seriously they could no longer lead a normal life.
In Iraq 2003-2009 we had more than 440 soldiers. 2 were killed. 18 seriously wounded.
1/n
HEGSETH: We wore a patch on our shoulder that said ISAF -- International Security Assistance Force. And you know what the joke was? That is stood for 'I saw Americans fighting.'
COONS: Let's just make clear for the record that our military partners in Afghanistan included many who served and died
COONS: Let's just make clear for the record that our military partners in Afghanistan included many who served and died
June 11, 2025 at 6:42 PM
🧵
My small country, Estonia, population 1.3 million sent 2003-2014 over 2500 soldiers. 9 were killed in the line of duty. 109 wounded, half of them so seriously they could no longer lead a normal life.
In Iraq 2003-2009 we had more than 440 soldiers. 2 were killed. 18 seriously wounded.
1/n
My small country, Estonia, population 1.3 million sent 2003-2014 over 2500 soldiers. 9 were killed in the line of duty. 109 wounded, half of them so seriously they could no longer lead a normal life.
In Iraq 2003-2009 we had more than 440 soldiers. 2 were killed. 18 seriously wounded.
1/n
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
Hi All, I released my weekend update a few hours ago, and the Ukrainians turned around and launched what is arguably the most successful operation of the war--so I updated it with all the information I could get. Russian strategic airpower received a mighty blow. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #135: Scratch That: The Ukrainians Just Pulled Off The Most Successful Operation Of The War
The New York Times Shows How Trump/Putin Control The Narrative; Trump Delays Again
open.substack.com
June 1, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Hi All, I released my weekend update a few hours ago, and the Ukrainians turned around and launched what is arguably the most successful operation of the war--so I updated it with all the information I could get. Russian strategic airpower received a mighty blow. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Russia's demands were "detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed," a source in the Ukrainian delegation told Reuters.
May 16, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Russia's demands were "detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed," a source in the Ukrainian delegation told Reuters.
Reposted by Michael Carpenter
This isn’t getting nearly enough attention.
Estonian navy is stopped at intercepting a shadow fleet vessel because a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 violated Estonian air space. This reduces even the implausible deniability to 0, which Russia has been relying on with the shadow fleet.
Estonian navy is stopped at intercepting a shadow fleet vessel because a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 violated Estonian air space. This reduces even the implausible deniability to 0, which Russia has been relying on with the shadow fleet.
Multiple Finnish Air Force F/A-18 Hornet operational flights before noon over the harbour city of Kotka located in South-East of Finland.
(follows the yday evening aborted attempt by Estonian navy trying to inspect the shadow fleet tanker JAGUAR when a russian Flanker fighter jet intervened)
(follows the yday evening aborted attempt by Estonian navy trying to inspect the shadow fleet tanker JAGUAR when a russian Flanker fighter jet intervened)
Ilmavoimien hävittäjät hämmästyttivät Kotkassa
Puolustuvoimat kertoo, että kyse on operatiivisesta lentotoiminnasta.
yle.fi
May 15, 2025 at 2:08 PM
This isn’t getting nearly enough attention.
Estonian navy is stopped at intercepting a shadow fleet vessel because a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 violated Estonian air space. This reduces even the implausible deniability to 0, which Russia has been relying on with the shadow fleet.
Estonian navy is stopped at intercepting a shadow fleet vessel because a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 violated Estonian air space. This reduces even the implausible deniability to 0, which Russia has been relying on with the shadow fleet.