Matthew Price
@matthewbprice.bsky.social
Political data guy at Focaldata.
Reposted by Matthew Price
As immigration dominates the brief this morning, here’s my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue:
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the public’s outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
labourlist.org
November 16, 2025 at 10:09 AM
As immigration dominates the brief this morning, here’s my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue:
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
It was fascinating to work on this research with @hopenothate.org.uk.
All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
Who supports Reform and why? The charts that show who favours Farage’s party
Who supports Reform and why? The charts that show who favours Farage’s party
Based on largest poll of supporters, these charts and maps show five distinct groups that could hand Reform a majority
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 1:36 PM
It was fascinating to work on this research with @hopenothate.org.uk.
All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
Reposted by Matthew Price
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 AM
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Reposted by Matthew Price
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
A quarter of 18-34 y/o men spoiled their vote in the Irish presidential election, per @kevcunningham.bsky.social
I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future.
kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
Who are the people who spoiled their ballot and why?
An initial analysis
kevcunningham.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:30 PM
A quarter of 18-34 y/o men spoiled their vote in the Irish presidential election, per @kevcunningham.bsky.social
Now that’s an age curve.
October 13, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Now that’s an age curve.
Chris continues to perform a public service by sharing new boundary notional results (and credit also to the BBC for paying for them and allowing them to be public).
NEW DATA: Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election on 2026 boundaries. Of interest to academics/pollsters/journos
Post: chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/sp2026...
Data: github.com/chrishanrett...
Source: github.com/chrishanrett...
Post: chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/sp2026...
Data: github.com/chrishanrett...
Source: github.com/chrishanrett...
Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election – chris hanretty
chris hanretty’s site
chrishanretty.co.uk
October 10, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Chris continues to perform a public service by sharing new boundary notional results (and credit also to the BBC for paying for them and allowing them to be public).
Reposted by Matthew Price
Important bit of new polling from @deltapoll.bsky.social: ask people for the top issue facing the country and immigration is second, at 49%.
But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%.
That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%.
That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
Exclusive poll: how Labour can win on immigration
A new opinion survey finds that people see immigration as a problem for Britain, but when it comes to their own lives, they have other priorities
www.thenewworld.co.uk
September 12, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Important bit of new polling from @deltapoll.bsky.social: ask people for the top issue facing the country and immigration is second, at 49%.
But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%.
That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%.
That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
While it’s true that Labour has become unduly obsessed with the threat from Reform while it loses voters to its left, it’s also true that there are far more Lab-Reform marginals than Lab-Lib or Lab-Green ones. And in those seats, votes lost to Reform count double.
September 6, 2025 at 4:23 PM
While it’s true that Labour has become unduly obsessed with the threat from Reform while it loses voters to its left, it’s also true that there are far more Lab-Reform marginals than Lab-Lib or Lab-Green ones. And in those seats, votes lost to Reform count double.
Painfully recognisable to anyone who has ever been involved in left-wing politics.
September 6, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Painfully recognisable to anyone who has ever been involved in left-wing politics.
This from @owenwntr.bsky.social is excellent.
There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
Who voted for Zohran Mamdani?
Zohram Mamdani’s triumph over Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic primary signals a shift towards the progressive wing of the party. Mamdani excelled among younger, Hispanic, and Asi…
owenwinter.co.uk
June 29, 2025 at 4:22 PM
This from @owenwntr.bsky.social is excellent.
There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
Reposted by Matthew Price
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
June 27, 2025 at 11:33 AM
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
Telling paragraph on culture at the ONS from the Devereux Review.
June 27, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Telling paragraph on culture at the ONS from the Devereux Review.
Right now on political prediction markets you can place bets on Newsom, AOC, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Harris to be the Dem nominee in 28 and more than double your stake if it ends up being any of them.
Good deal?
Good deal?
June 27, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Right now on political prediction markets you can place bets on Newsom, AOC, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Harris to be the Dem nominee in 28 and more than double your stake if it ends up being any of them.
Good deal?
Good deal?
Reposted by Matthew Price
Polls often get criticized unfairly. But in #NYCmayor, they had an unambiguously bad night. Mamdani averaged 28.5% of 1st-place votes in the last 4 independent polls of the race. He currently has 43.5%.
June 25, 2025 at 3:39 AM
Polls often get criticized unfairly. But in #NYCmayor, they had an unambiguously bad night. Mamdani averaged 28.5% of 1st-place votes in the last 4 independent polls of the race. He currently has 43.5%.
People usually assume that when a popular politician adopts an unpopular policy, the politician will become less popular. But it’s just as likely that the policy becomes more popular instead.
Amazing how quickly some people can change their mind
www.economist.com/united-state...
www.economist.com/united-state...
June 23, 2025 at 1:43 PM
People usually assume that when a popular politician adopts an unpopular policy, the politician will become less popular. But it’s just as likely that the policy becomes more popular instead.
A personal update: yesterday was my last day at Deltapoll. I’m going travelling for a couple of weeks before starting my new gig, where I will continue asking people for their opinions about politics and trying to figure out when they’re lying.
June 14, 2025 at 12:18 PM
A personal update: yesterday was my last day at Deltapoll. I’m going travelling for a couple of weeks before starting my new gig, where I will continue asking people for their opinions about politics and trying to figure out when they’re lying.
It was so obvious for so long Labour would form the next government that by the time they took office they should have had a clear, costed plan and a proven strategy for communicating it. They had neither.
The inheritence was abysmal and meaningfully integrating services, shifting to prevention and devolving power was always going to be difficult. But Labour made it much harder for themselves by failing to use their time in opposition to properly think through the trade offs they'd make in govt
June 12, 2025 at 7:08 AM
It was so obvious for so long Labour would form the next government that by the time they took office they should have had a clear, costed plan and a proven strategy for communicating it. They had neither.
Do the people suggesting that FIFA is going to pull the World Cup from the US because of its contempt for migrants’ rights remember where the last World Cup was held?
June 12, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Do the people suggesting that FIFA is going to pull the World Cup from the US because of its contempt for migrants’ rights remember where the last World Cup was held?
Lower than Truss.
Tories now in fourth place, via YouGov
The first time since the nadir of 2019
The first time since the nadir of 2019
May 20, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Lower than Truss.
Everybody is (rightly) talking about the grim numbers for Labour here, but it's also dismal for the Tories. Still toxic with supporters of all other parties AND they have lost more of their own base than any other party of opposition.
May 16, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Everybody is (rightly) talking about the grim numbers for Labour here, but it's also dismal for the Tories. Still toxic with supporters of all other parties AND they have lost more of their own base than any other party of opposition.
Reposted by Matthew Price
Keir Starmer's net favourability rating has dropped 12pts in a month to -46, his lowest level ever, including a 34pt drop among Labour voters
All Britons: -46 net rating (down 12 from 13-14 Apr)
By 2024 vote
Labour: -5 (down 34)
Lib Dem: -13 (down 12)
Conservative: -76 (up 1)
Reform: -94 (down 5)
All Britons: -46 net rating (down 12 from 13-14 Apr)
By 2024 vote
Labour: -5 (down 34)
Lib Dem: -13 (down 12)
Conservative: -76 (up 1)
Reform: -94 (down 5)
May 16, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Keir Starmer's net favourability rating has dropped 12pts in a month to -46, his lowest level ever, including a 34pt drop among Labour voters
All Britons: -46 net rating (down 12 from 13-14 Apr)
By 2024 vote
Labour: -5 (down 34)
Lib Dem: -13 (down 12)
Conservative: -76 (up 1)
Reform: -94 (down 5)
All Britons: -46 net rating (down 12 from 13-14 Apr)
By 2024 vote
Labour: -5 (down 34)
Lib Dem: -13 (down 12)
Conservative: -76 (up 1)
Reform: -94 (down 5)
This means Starmer (-34 net favourability with YouGov), Farage (-38), and Badenoch (-38) are all about as (un)popular as Prince Harry.
Which of them will be the first to sink to Meghan's level? Will any of them catch Prince Andrew? This is the only way I can get myself to care about the royals.
Which of them will be the first to sink to Meghan's level? Will any of them catch Prince Andrew? This is the only way I can get myself to care about the royals.
Royal favourability tracker, May 2025
Prince William: 75% (+1 since Feb)
Catherine: 72% (-2)
Princess Anne: 69% (-1)
King Charles: 61% (+2)
Prince Edward: 52% (-1)
Camilla: 46% (+1)
Prince Harry: 27% (-3)
Meghan: 20% (-1)
Prince Andrew: 5% (+1)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Prince William: 75% (+1 since Feb)
Catherine: 72% (-2)
Princess Anne: 69% (-1)
King Charles: 61% (+2)
Prince Edward: 52% (-1)
Camilla: 46% (+1)
Prince Harry: 27% (-3)
Meghan: 20% (-1)
Prince Andrew: 5% (+1)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
May 14, 2025 at 9:38 AM
This means Starmer (-34 net favourability with YouGov), Farage (-38), and Badenoch (-38) are all about as (un)popular as Prince Harry.
Which of them will be the first to sink to Meghan's level? Will any of them catch Prince Andrew? This is the only way I can get myself to care about the royals.
Which of them will be the first to sink to Meghan's level? Will any of them catch Prince Andrew? This is the only way I can get myself to care about the royals.
This is remarkably similar to the Projected National Share from the locals (within 2 points for all parties).
Maybe the end of the three-way tie?
Maybe the end of the three-way tie?
YouGov / Sky News / Times voting intention
Reform 29 (+3),
Lab 22 (-1),
Con 17 (-3),
Lib Dem 16 (+1),
Green 10 (+1)
Reform 29 (+3),
Lab 22 (-1),
Con 17 (-3),
Lib Dem 16 (+1),
Green 10 (+1)
May 7, 2025 at 6:43 AM
This is remarkably similar to the Projected National Share from the locals (within 2 points for all parties).
Maybe the end of the three-way tie?
Maybe the end of the three-way tie?
I really like the second graph here, but I don’t agree that the first one is “awful”. It’s a lot more useful for answering questions like “Which party won in my seat?”
Once again, Australian election results prove how awful choropleth maps are for data visualisation.
"Land doesn't vote, people do."
#rstats code to reproduce animation here: github.com/emitanaka/oz...
"Land doesn't vote, people do."
#rstats code to reproduce animation here: github.com/emitanaka/oz...
May 4, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I really like the second graph here, but I don’t agree that the first one is “awful”. It’s a lot more useful for answering questions like “Which party won in my seat?”