Matthew Price
@matthewbprice.bsky.social
Political data guy at Focaldata.
Reposted by Matthew Price
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
Analysis shows that the world is moving closer to China, as Trump’s isolationism rears its head at the United Nations
www.theguardian.com
February 13, 2026 at 10:42 AM
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
Reposted by Matthew Price
The untold story that is told constantly and isn’t really true
February 7, 2026 at 11:35 AM
The untold story that is told constantly and isn’t really true
Macron desperately needs Trump to get interested in Réunion.
How popular are European leaders in their own countries? (9-27 Jan 2026)
🇩🇰 Frederiksen -8 net favourability (+21 from Dec)
🇮🇹 Meloni -22 (-1)
🇪🇸 Sánchez -31 (+5)
🇩🇪 Merz -43 (+1)
🇬🇧 Starmer -57 (+2)
🇫🇷 Macron -63 (=)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
🇩🇰 Frederiksen -8 net favourability (+21 from Dec)
🇮🇹 Meloni -22 (-1)
🇪🇸 Sánchez -31 (+5)
🇩🇪 Merz -43 (+1)
🇬🇧 Starmer -57 (+2)
🇫🇷 Macron -63 (=)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
February 4, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Macron desperately needs Trump to get interested in Réunion.
Reposted by Matthew Price
Which polling company does not include the Greens as an option?!?
Which models include reassigning the answers of previous Labour voters?!?
Please just ASK THE POLLING COMPANIES why there is a difference!
Which models include reassigning the answers of previous Labour voters?!?
Please just ASK THE POLLING COMPANIES why there is a difference!
January 30, 2026 at 7:50 AM
Which polling company does not include the Greens as an option?!?
Which models include reassigning the answers of previous Labour voters?!?
Please just ASK THE POLLING COMPANIES why there is a difference!
Which models include reassigning the answers of previous Labour voters?!?
Please just ASK THE POLLING COMPANIES why there is a difference!
Fascinating as usual from my colleague @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social. Come for the Simpsons memes, stay for the lesson in US political realignment.
I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
How The Simpsons Explain America's Political Realignment
How the Democrats lost Homer Simpson but gained Mr Burns
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
January 27, 2026 at 9:19 AM
Fascinating as usual from my colleague @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social. Come for the Simpsons memes, stay for the lesson in US political realignment.
I think it would be helpful if this article explained the difference between the single market and the customs union, and the implications for the UK.
Instead, all of the analysis is through the lens of “who’s up, who’s down” cabinet Kremlinology.
Instead, all of the analysis is through the lens of “who’s up, who’s down” cabinet Kremlinology.
Starmer says closer ties with EU single market preferable to a customs union
Prime minister gives clearest sign yet that government is seeking to further deepen Britain’s links with Brussels
www.theguardian.com
January 4, 2026 at 3:39 PM
I think it would be helpful if this article explained the difference between the single market and the customs union, and the implications for the UK.
Instead, all of the analysis is through the lens of “who’s up, who’s down” cabinet Kremlinology.
Instead, all of the analysis is through the lens of “who’s up, who’s down” cabinet Kremlinology.
Reposted by Matthew Price
If you don't already read @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social's substack and you're into British politics, can I recommend doing so as a New Year's Resolution? Always enjoyable and thought provoking in equal measure - although maybe pass on this one if you're a Labour diehard and don't want to spoil NYEve!
Two Voting Predictions For 2026
One obvious, one with potential
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 8:01 AM
If you don't already read @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social's substack and you're into British politics, can I recommend doing so as a New Year's Resolution? Always enjoyable and thought provoking in equal measure - although maybe pass on this one if you're a Labour diehard and don't want to spoil NYEve!
Reposted by Matthew Price
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
December 9, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
Somebody ctrl+f that one guy’s name when the files are released.
November 18, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Somebody ctrl+f that one guy’s name when the files are released.
Reposted by Matthew Price
As immigration dominates the brief this morning, here’s my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue:
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the public’s outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
labourlist.org
November 16, 2025 at 10:09 AM
As immigration dominates the brief this morning, here’s my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue:
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
(Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
It was fascinating to work on this research with @hopenothate.org.uk.
All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
Who supports Reform and why? The charts that show who favours Farage’s party
Who supports Reform and why? The charts that show who favours Farage’s party
Based on largest poll of supporters, these charts and maps show five distinct groups that could hand Reform a majority
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 1:36 PM
It was fascinating to work on this research with @hopenothate.org.uk.
All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
Reposted by Matthew Price
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 AM
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
Reposted by Matthew Price
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
A quarter of 18-34 y/o men spoiled their vote in the Irish presidential election, per @kevcunningham.bsky.social
I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future.
kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
Who are the people who spoiled their ballot and why?
An initial analysis
kevcunningham.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:30 PM
A quarter of 18-34 y/o men spoiled their vote in the Irish presidential election, per @kevcunningham.bsky.social
Now that’s an age curve.
October 13, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Now that’s an age curve.
Chris continues to perform a public service by sharing new boundary notional results (and credit also to the BBC for paying for them and allowing them to be public).
NEW DATA: Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election on 2026 boundaries. Of interest to academics/pollsters/journos
Post: chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/sp2026...
Data: github.com/chrishanrett...
Source: github.com/chrishanrett...
Post: chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/sp2026...
Data: github.com/chrishanrett...
Source: github.com/chrishanrett...
Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election – chris hanretty
chris hanretty’s site
chrishanretty.co.uk
October 10, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Chris continues to perform a public service by sharing new boundary notional results (and credit also to the BBC for paying for them and allowing them to be public).
Reposted by Matthew Price
Important bit of new polling from @deltapoll.bsky.social: ask people for the top issue facing the country and immigration is second, at 49%.
But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%.
That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%.
That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
Exclusive poll: how Labour can win on immigration
A new opinion survey finds that people see immigration as a problem for Britain, but when it comes to their own lives, they have other priorities
www.thenewworld.co.uk
September 12, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Important bit of new polling from @deltapoll.bsky.social: ask people for the top issue facing the country and immigration is second, at 49%.
But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%.
That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%.
That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
While it’s true that Labour has become unduly obsessed with the threat from Reform while it loses voters to its left, it’s also true that there are far more Lab-Reform marginals than Lab-Lib or Lab-Green ones. And in those seats, votes lost to Reform count double.
September 6, 2025 at 4:23 PM
While it’s true that Labour has become unduly obsessed with the threat from Reform while it loses voters to its left, it’s also true that there are far more Lab-Reform marginals than Lab-Lib or Lab-Green ones. And in those seats, votes lost to Reform count double.
Painfully recognisable to anyone who has ever been involved in left-wing politics.
September 6, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Painfully recognisable to anyone who has ever been involved in left-wing politics.
This from @owenwntr.bsky.social is excellent.
There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
Who voted for Zohran Mamdani?
Zohram Mamdani’s triumph over Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic primary signals a shift towards the progressive wing of the party. Mamdani excelled among younger, Hispanic, and Asi…
owenwinter.co.uk
June 29, 2025 at 4:22 PM
This from @owenwntr.bsky.social is excellent.
There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
Reposted by Matthew Price
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
June 27, 2025 at 11:33 AM
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
Telling paragraph on culture at the ONS from the Devereux Review.
June 27, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Telling paragraph on culture at the ONS from the Devereux Review.
Right now on political prediction markets you can place bets on Newsom, AOC, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Harris to be the Dem nominee in 28 and more than double your stake if it ends up being any of them.
Good deal?
Good deal?
June 27, 2025 at 7:43 AM
Right now on political prediction markets you can place bets on Newsom, AOC, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Harris to be the Dem nominee in 28 and more than double your stake if it ends up being any of them.
Good deal?
Good deal?
Reposted by Matthew Price
Polls often get criticized unfairly. But in #NYCmayor, they had an unambiguously bad night. Mamdani averaged 28.5% of 1st-place votes in the last 4 independent polls of the race. He currently has 43.5%.
June 25, 2025 at 3:39 AM
Polls often get criticized unfairly. But in #NYCmayor, they had an unambiguously bad night. Mamdani averaged 28.5% of 1st-place votes in the last 4 independent polls of the race. He currently has 43.5%.
People usually assume that when a popular politician adopts an unpopular policy, the politician will become less popular. But it’s just as likely that the policy becomes more popular instead.
Amazing how quickly some people can change their mind
www.economist.com/united-state...
www.economist.com/united-state...
June 23, 2025 at 1:43 PM
People usually assume that when a popular politician adopts an unpopular policy, the politician will become less popular. But it’s just as likely that the policy becomes more popular instead.
