Matthew Price
LightNews LightNews
banner
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Matthew Price
@matthewbprice.bsky.social
3.1K followers 370 following 270 posts
Political data guy at Focaldata.
Posts Replies Media Videos
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Now that’s an age curve.
A chart showing the proportion of people who believe Thatcher was the greatest Prime Minister of the last 50 years, ranging from 7% for 18-24s to 49% for over 65s.
October 13, 2025 at 8:08 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Painfully recognisable to anyone who has ever been involved in left-wing politics.
Private meetings in the autumn of 2024 engendered further divisions: attendees spent their time “furiously agreeing with each other” on the basic politics, in the words of one, while disagreeing with the way gatherings were organised.
September 6, 2025 at 3:22 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Telling paragraph on culture at the ONS from the Devereux Review.
This in turn reflects what many reported as a reluctance, at senior levels, to hear and act on difficult news. The organisation had established values to be radical, ambitious, inclusive, sustainable. And the experience during the pandemic well illustrates how such values can drive extraordinary behaviour and results. Unfortunately, the lesson learned seems to have been “all things are possible”, without the nuance that this is typically only true when there is an overwhelming emergency, which understandably de-prioritises many other activities. Several people suggested that the list of values was missing “realistic”.
June 27, 2025 at 8:13 AM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Everybody is (rightly) talking about the grim numbers for Labour here, but it's also dismal for the Tories. Still toxic with supporters of all other parties AND they have lost more of their own base than any other party of opposition.
A chart showing that the Conservatives are not judged favourably by more than a fifth of supporters from any other party.
May 16, 2025 at 11:16 AM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
I still haven’t seen a better solution than this beauty from The Economist, which conveys the electoral geography and the distribution of seats all at once.
An electoral map of the Great Britain showing the winner of each constituency as a coloured dot within a shaded region.
May 4, 2025 at 10:05 AM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
He's right. It is possible to underestimate voters' knowledge.
A poll showing that 55% of likely voters can correctly identify the definition of "oligarchy".
April 24, 2025 at 8:53 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
A brilliant parenthetical quote in a brilliant piece by @duncanrobinson.bsky.social.

www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Until recently, Reform was an advocate for a fairer system. Mr Campbell’s personal ambivalence about first-past-the-post (“What’s that?”) is now matched by the party leadership’s. When Mr Farage was a victim of Britain’s unfair electoral system, he was keenly in favour of proportional representation. Now that polls suggest Mr Farage could win hundreds of seats, or even end up in Downing Street, he is less keen on change.
April 24, 2025 at 1:16 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Definitely some interesting stuff in here, but this seems like an odd use case for MRP to me. Is the dependent variable (satisfaction with *your local* public service) really a function of demographics?

Thinking about the below excerpt from @chanret.bsky.social 's MRP primer.
Sometimes, however, surveys ask questions in ways that lead respondents to picture different individuals or organisations. Surveys might ask about rates of satisfaction with “your local MP”, or “your local police service”. It would be wrong to model these kinds of opinions using MRP, because the same process would not govern the responses given.
March 13, 2025 at 4:37 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Even if a non-linear trend line would be best, surely it would look more like this?
An edited version of the original chart with a concave down, decreasing trend line.
February 25, 2025 at 9:38 AM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Deltapoll would never make such a rookie error.
February 12, 2025 at 11:39 AM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Always nice to see important research validated by a second source.
A map of the UK showing the most common name in each region of the UK for the children's game of ringing a doorbell and running away.
February 12, 2025 at 10:25 AM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
We talk a lot about temperamental electoral coalitions, but I'm not sure I've seen a better example than Sinn Féin. It won in 2020 thanks to a motley collection of voters with views on immigration from right across the spectrum. Then, when immigration became salient in 2023, it all fell apart.
A graph showing the density of Sinn Féin 2020 General Election voters by attitudes to the economic and social effects of immigration. The highest concentration is in the centre, with high densities also in the anti-immigration corner and pro-immigration corner.
February 11, 2025 at 5:53 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Two charts released this week by @lewisbaston.bsky.social and TBI tell a similar story about fragmentation and the decline of mainstream parties.

This has been going on for a long time, and it’s happening everywhere.
A graph from Lewis Baston showing the decline in the combined vote share of the two largest parties in 14 countries since 1954. A graph from TBI showing the decline in the combined vote share for the dominant centre-left and centre-right parties in Western democracies since 2000.
January 31, 2025 at 9:00 AM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
The difference between elections in Ireland (PR-STV) and the UK (FPTP) ⬇️
A chart showing the vote shares and seat shares for parties in Irish general elections since 1992. Most parties are clustered around the 45 degree line, which represents perfect proportionality. A chart showing the vote shares and seat shares for parties in UK general elections since 1992. Parties with large vote shares are mostly above the 45 degree line (implying a seat bonus), whereas parties with small vote shares are mostly below the 45 degree line (implying a seat deficit).
December 5, 2024 at 3:17 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
In the UK, larger parties almost always benefit from the electoral system and smaller parties are almost always punished by it. Although this year's result was especially disproportionate, it fits with the historical trend. (7/8)
Chart showing vote shares and seat shares for UK parties in general elections since 1992. Most parties with small vote shares are below the 45 degree line representing perfect proportionality, while most parties with large vote shares are above the line.
December 5, 2024 at 1:38 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Irish elections almost always produce strikingly proportional seat distributions. Even in 2011, when Fine Gael got a substantial seat bonus, the distortion was relatively small. (6/8)
Chart showing vote shares and seat shares for Irish parties in general elections since 1992. Almost all points are very close to the line representing a perfectly proportional outcome, although points from 2011 are further away from the line than average.
December 5, 2024 at 1:38 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
In contrast, the outcome of the UK election earlier this year was historically disproportionate. Labour won almost 2/3 of seats on 1/3 of the vote, while Reform got 1 in 7 votes but fewer than 1 in 100 seats. (3/8)
Chart showing how UK parties fared in the July election by vote share and seat share. It shows that Labour massively overperformed in terms of seats, while Reform significantly underperformed.
December 5, 2024 at 1:38 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Ireland's election last week produced a fairly proportional outcome in terms of seats and votes, with Fianna Fáil receiving a modest seat bonus (~10 extra seats) and all other parties getting more or less their fair share. (2/8)
Chart showing how Irish parties fared in last week's election in terms of vote share and seat share. All parties are quite close to the 45-degree line which represents a perfectly proportional outcome.
December 5, 2024 at 1:38 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Two completely contradictory predictions for government formation in the Irish Times and Extra ie this morning, both attributed to “senior” figures in FF and FG.

Somebody is being led up the garden path! #GE24
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael likely to seek coalition deal with Labour and Social Democrats. Senior figures in both parties believe that a centre-left party would be preferable to a group of Independents. With the two old Civil War rivals within touching distance of a majority, senior sources in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael last night said there was already a belief within the leadership of both parties that, if they fall just short of an overall majority, it is ‘preferable’ they form a coalition with the support of some Independents rather than a third party.
December 1, 2024 at 9:11 AM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
This is Kate Conger, co-author of Character Limit.
Well there’s that one incident in the summer of 2023 where they open sourced the algorithm there was tag in the code that said, “Author is Elon.” He was promoting himself. There's also a lot that he does organically on the platform by replying to accounts that he likes, or tweeting and retweeting accounts, and that brings them into the feeds of the 198 million people who follow him.
November 18, 2024 at 1:55 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
We can also add education into the mix. The Fine Gael-Sinn Féin crossover age for graduates is 37 and for non-grads it's 57.

#GE24
A chart showing the probability of voting for Fine Gael and Sinn Féin at different ages, with separate curves for those with and without a university degree. The crossover age at which Fine Gael becomes more popular is significantly older for non-graduates.
November 16, 2024 at 6:28 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Heading into #GE24, Sinn Féin is the most popular party among voters younger than 48; above that, it's Fine Gael.

Based on electoral commission data from June, so it's possible things have shifted slightly since.
A chart showing the probability of voting for Fine Gael and Sinn Féin at different ages. The curves intersect at 48 years old, where voters shift from favouring Sinn Féin to favouring Fine Gael.
November 16, 2024 at 6:28 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
At least voters will be able to easily distinguish them based on their headshots.
Posters of both Eoin Ó Broins. The two men look...similar.
November 16, 2024 at 3:49 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Glad to see voters in Dublin Mid-West are being given a clear choice from a diverse range of candidates.

h/t @iresimpsonsfans.bsky.social
Election posters for not one, but two candidates named Eoin Ó Broin, both bearded men with glasses.
November 12, 2024 at 4:05 PM
matthewbprice.bsky.social
Yup.
A graph showing polls released in October/November in many US states and the election result in each state. In every state, most polls understated Trump's advantage.
November 8, 2024 at 1:46 PM