Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@karvelis.bsky.social
Intelligence | Counterinsurgency | Hybrid war | LatAm | documentary photography | tacos | beer. Not necessarily in that order. #SlavaUkraini 🇺🇦
Pinned
Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@karvelis.bsky.social
· Nov 12
It turns out that there’s no insurgencies starter pack, so I’ve made one.
Let me know if I’ve missed someone.
go.bsky.app/12EFpjk
Let me know if I’ve missed someone.
go.bsky.app/12EFpjk
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
November 23, 2025 at 2:37 PM
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Unfortunate that @christogrozev.bsky.social has not shared here the remarks he published on X about the Trump-Putin plan for Ukraine.
I'm taking the liberty of doing it for him.
I'm taking the liberty of doing it for him.
November 23, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Unfortunate that @christogrozev.bsky.social has not shared here the remarks he published on X about the Trump-Putin plan for Ukraine.
I'm taking the liberty of doing it for him.
I'm taking the liberty of doing it for him.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Must suck to think you have two Administration jobs, only to realize you actually have zero.
November 23, 2025 at 4:07 AM
Must suck to think you have two Administration jobs, only to realize you actually have zero.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
The Nordic-Baltic Joint Statement - we will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe's defence. To the Ukrainian people: you are not alone🇺🇦
November 23, 2025 at 4:26 AM
The Nordic-Baltic Joint Statement - we will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe's defence. To the Ukrainian people: you are not alone🇺🇦
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
"The evolution of Russia’s intelligence and security services since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine reflects a broader strategic adaptation: a fusion of legacy Soviet practices with new methods of covert influence, violence, manipulation, and hostage trading." cepa.org/comprehensiv...
War Without End: Russia’s Shadow Warfare
To secure its grip on power, Russia adopts Soviet practices coupled with modern tactics of covert influence, violence, and manipulation.
cepa.org
November 22, 2025 at 12:19 PM
"The evolution of Russia’s intelligence and security services since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine reflects a broader strategic adaptation: a fusion of legacy Soviet practices with new methods of covert influence, violence, manipulation, and hostage trading." cepa.org/comprehensiv...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Correct European assessment www.politico.eu/article/stev... via @politico.eu
‘Witkoff needs a psychiatrist’: Europeans fume at Trump’s plan to profit from frozen Russian assets
Diplomats and officials react with outrage to new details of the U.S. peace plan, warning it could wreck their efforts to help Ukraine survive the war.
www.politico.eu
November 22, 2025 at 5:05 AM
Correct European assessment www.politico.eu/article/stev... via @politico.eu
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Here is my read of the "peace plan" and how Kirill Dmitriev played the American media to force this thing into being -- with an incompetent White House scrambling to make it seem like this was somehow coordinated and well-planned. open.substack.com/pub/macspaun...
“He Must Have Got This From K.”
How a Russian operative used the American media to force a risible “peace deal” into existence
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Here is my read of the "peace plan" and how Kirill Dmitriev played the American media to force this thing into being -- with an incompetent White House scrambling to make it seem like this was somehow coordinated and well-planned. open.substack.com/pub/macspaun...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
1/ What a Russian breaking of the ceasefire will look like, step by step.
There are far better experts on this, but I was an Australian diplomat in Ukraine in 2014 so I've seen this play out up close.
So join me, brothers and sisters, as we count down to a fullscale re-invasion.
There are far better experts on this, but I was an Australian diplomat in Ukraine in 2014 so I've seen this play out up close.
So join me, brothers and sisters, as we count down to a fullscale re-invasion.
November 21, 2025 at 2:23 PM
1/ What a Russian breaking of the ceasefire will look like, step by step.
There are far better experts on this, but I was an Australian diplomat in Ukraine in 2014 so I've seen this play out up close.
So join me, brothers and sisters, as we count down to a fullscale re-invasion.
There are far better experts on this, but I was an Australian diplomat in Ukraine in 2014 so I've seen this play out up close.
So join me, brothers and sisters, as we count down to a fullscale re-invasion.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
November 21, 2025 at 6:36 PM
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
From the strategic beer reserve: an imperial Baltic Porter from Estonia based Pöhjala. Rich and creamy, brewed with bison grass!
November 20, 2025 at 11:40 PM
From the strategic beer reserve: an imperial Baltic Porter from Estonia based Pöhjala. Rich and creamy, brewed with bison grass!
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Thinking he is responding to a private message Witkoff accidentally leaked that the Axios report must have originated from the Russian side. „K.“ is most likely Kirill Dmitriev, his Russian counterpart, who in the midst of those secret discussions saw the need to leak them.
November 20, 2025 at 6:33 AM
Thinking he is responding to a private message Witkoff accidentally leaked that the Axios report must have originated from the Russian side. „K.“ is most likely Kirill Dmitriev, his Russian counterpart, who in the midst of those secret discussions saw the need to leak them.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
3/ The reported proposed peace plan would deprive Ukraine of critical defensive positions and capabilities necessary to defend against future Russian aggression, apparently in exchange for nothing.
November 20, 2025 at 4:56 AM
3/ The reported proposed peace plan would deprive Ukraine of critical defensive positions and capabilities necessary to defend against future Russian aggression, apparently in exchange for nothing.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Our report on Russian sabotage warfare mindset is out.
The Kremlin’s primary goal is the regime’s survival, not Russian national security. To secure its grip on power, Russia has adopted Shadow Warfare, using sabotage, covert influence, and violence to achieve its political and military goals.
cepa.org/comprehensiv...
cepa.org/comprehensiv...
War Without End: Russia’s Shadow Warfare
To secure its grip on power, Russia adopts Soviet practices coupled with modern tactics of covert influence, violence, and manipulation.
cepa.org
November 19, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Our report on Russian sabotage warfare mindset is out.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
People have done a massive disservice to Ukraine and Europe by pretending Trump might do the right thing and help Ukraine. It raised hopes in a fantasy and kept people from facing reality. Trump is with Putin and all Europeans need to face that squarely.
November 20, 2025 at 1:38 AM
People have done a massive disservice to Ukraine and Europe by pretending Trump might do the right thing and help Ukraine. It raised hopes in a fantasy and kept people from facing reality. Trump is with Putin and all Europeans need to face that squarely.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
US-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg has told associates he’ll leave his post in January, sources tell Reuters. The move comes amid frustration that the Ukraine file is too crowded and a belief that some administration officials are too hesitant to apply pressure on Russia.
November 20, 2025 at 2:12 AM
US-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg has told associates he’ll leave his post in January, sources tell Reuters. The move comes amid frustration that the Ukraine file is too crowded and a belief that some administration officials are too hesitant to apply pressure on Russia.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
A critical report by the ICDS on disinformation and information operations. I believe it will be of interest to anyone interested in the topic. I will share just one fact: Russia is investing $1.8 billion in propaganda in 2024, while the EU is investing around $25 million to counter it.
Beyond Defence: A Proactive Strategy for the West in the Information Domain - International Centre for Defence and Security
The information war is not a future threat—it is the defining battlefield of the present.
icds.ee
November 19, 2025 at 12:58 AM
A critical report by the ICDS on disinformation and information operations. I believe it will be of interest to anyone interested in the topic. I will share just one fact: Russia is investing $1.8 billion in propaganda in 2024, while the EU is investing around $25 million to counter it.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
A veteran 🇩🇰 Danish pilot, Bjarne Cæsar Skinnerup, describes notable changes aboard 🇷🇺 shadow fleet ships:
„Russian men in what look like military uniforms walking around breathing down the necks of the pilots. Important papers mysteriously disappearing. Lack of cooperation and dismissive tone…“
1/
„Russian men in what look like military uniforms walking around breathing down the necks of the pilots. Important papers mysteriously disappearing. Lack of cooperation and dismissive tone…“
1/
November 17, 2025 at 9:44 AM
A veteran 🇩🇰 Danish pilot, Bjarne Cæsar Skinnerup, describes notable changes aboard 🇷🇺 shadow fleet ships:
„Russian men in what look like military uniforms walking around breathing down the necks of the pilots. Important papers mysteriously disappearing. Lack of cooperation and dismissive tone…“
1/
„Russian men in what look like military uniforms walking around breathing down the necks of the pilots. Important papers mysteriously disappearing. Lack of cooperation and dismissive tone…“
1/
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
QUEEN WORLD CUP
#QueenWorldCup
FINAL THREAD 1/x
OK, here we go.
We have had 1,753 votes in this tournament so far and they have sorted all the Queen songs 12 of my friends and I could think of to a last pair.
Let's step onto the stage at the Hammersmith Apollo and pretend it's Christmas Eve.
#QueenWorldCup
FINAL THREAD 1/x
OK, here we go.
We have had 1,753 votes in this tournament so far and they have sorted all the Queen songs 12 of my friends and I could think of to a last pair.
Let's step onto the stage at the Hammersmith Apollo and pretend it's Christmas Eve.
a man is singing into a microphone while another man plays a guitar
Alt: An animation of Queen live on stage
media.tenor.com
November 16, 2025 at 8:36 AM
QUEEN WORLD CUP
#QueenWorldCup
FINAL THREAD 1/x
OK, here we go.
We have had 1,753 votes in this tournament so far and they have sorted all the Queen songs 12 of my friends and I could think of to a last pair.
Let's step onto the stage at the Hammersmith Apollo and pretend it's Christmas Eve.
#QueenWorldCup
FINAL THREAD 1/x
OK, here we go.
We have had 1,753 votes in this tournament so far and they have sorted all the Queen songs 12 of my friends and I could think of to a last pair.
Let's step onto the stage at the Hammersmith Apollo and pretend it's Christmas Eve.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
8/ The Kremlin is conducting multiple information operations against the Baltic states as it did to justify the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of Phase Zero conditions-setting for a possible attack on the Baltic states at some point in the future.
November 13, 2025 at 5:46 AM
8/ The Kremlin is conducting multiple information operations against the Baltic states as it did to justify the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of Phase Zero conditions-setting for a possible attack on the Baltic states at some point in the future.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
when you wear a size 9.5 shoe but the 8.5 was on sale
November 11, 2025 at 9:54 PM
when you wear a size 9.5 shoe but the 8.5 was on sale
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
(1/5) People in Tunja woke up to find a mortar in the street.
As dawn broke on Saturday, residents in the Curubal neighbourhood of Tunja, the capital of Boyacá, discovered a blue pickup truck retrofitted with a platform for launching mortars.
As dawn broke on Saturday, residents in the Curubal neighbourhood of Tunja, the capital of Boyacá, discovered a blue pickup truck retrofitted with a platform for launching mortars.
November 10, 2025 at 10:00 PM
(1/5) People in Tunja woke up to find a mortar in the street.
As dawn broke on Saturday, residents in the Curubal neighbourhood of Tunja, the capital of Boyacá, discovered a blue pickup truck retrofitted with a platform for launching mortars.
As dawn broke on Saturday, residents in the Curubal neighbourhood of Tunja, the capital of Boyacá, discovered a blue pickup truck retrofitted with a platform for launching mortars.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
"The date on which the monarchy fell in 1918, Hitler staged his failed coup attempt in 1923, the Nazis and antisemitic mobs attacked synagogues and Jewish homes and businesses in 1938, and the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Nov 9 is known as the 'day of destiny' in Germany." DW
www.dw.com/en/november-...
www.dw.com/en/november-...
November 9: A fateful day in the history of Germany – DW – 11/09/2025
From the end of the monarchy to the 1938 pogroms to the fall of the Berlin Wall, November 9 is a significant date on the German calendar.
www.dw.com
November 9, 2025 at 7:50 AM
"The date on which the monarchy fell in 1918, Hitler staged his failed coup attempt in 1923, the Nazis and antisemitic mobs attacked synagogues and Jewish homes and businesses in 1938, and the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Nov 9 is known as the 'day of destiny' in Germany." DW
www.dw.com/en/november-...
www.dw.com/en/november-...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
'As the old Soviet joke goes: History gets rewritten so fast, you never know what will happen yesterday.'
alexzfinley.substack.com/p/trump-russ...
alexzfinley.substack.com/p/trump-russ...
Trump, Russia, and the coming collapse of the information space
Another uplifting Rant! Happy Friday!
alexzfinley.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 11:52 AM
'As the old Soviet joke goes: History gets rewritten so fast, you never know what will happen yesterday.'
alexzfinley.substack.com/p/trump-russ...
alexzfinley.substack.com/p/trump-russ...