Joel Sievert
@jsievert.bsky.social
Political Scientist at Texas Tech. Dogs & coffee make me happy
Pinned
Joel Sievert
@jsievert.bsky.social
· Sep 19
Happy (official) publication day to one of my favorite projects ever!
tldr: Congressional votes on early federal infrastructure policy was influenced by partisan, distributive, and racial considerations
tldr: Congressional votes on early federal infrastructure policy was influenced by partisan, distributive, and racial considerations
Reposted by Joel Sievert
Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
November 5, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.
Reposted by Joel Sievert
Earlier this year, we showed Trump built a remarkable “plutopopulist” coalition in his campaigns, drawing money from both wealthy elites and an unprecedented surge of small, first-time donors. With Tuesday’s elections, though, that coalition seems to be fraying. What happened? 1/ cup.org/4cfm0Az
November 8, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Earlier this year, we showed Trump built a remarkable “plutopopulist” coalition in his campaigns, drawing money from both wealthy elites and an unprecedented surge of small, first-time donors. With Tuesday’s elections, though, that coalition seems to be fraying. What happened? 1/ cup.org/4cfm0Az
Reposted by Joel Sievert
Our edited volume is now available for preorder! We have a fantastic collection of contributors and think this a great book for any number of American politics classes.
www.degruyterbrill.com/document/isb...
www.degruyterbrill.com/document/isb...
Divided Nation
In recent decades, US politics has become increasingly fraught and divided. This book evaluates the current state of American democracy, centered on the theme of polarization and dysfunction, through ...
www.degruyterbrill.com
November 8, 2025 at 2:24 AM
Our edited volume is now available for preorder! We have a fantastic collection of contributors and think this a great book for any number of American politics classes.
www.degruyterbrill.com/document/isb...
www.degruyterbrill.com/document/isb...
Reposted by Joel Sievert
The book is real! To celebrate, I will give out five copies to interested early career folks. DM if you’d like one.
November 8, 2025 at 2:04 AM
The book is real! To celebrate, I will give out five copies to interested early career folks. DM if you’d like one.
Reposted by Joel Sievert
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
November 8, 2025 at 1:10 AM
It’s no walk in the park to serve in Congress, and I don’t begrudge Golden for stepping away. But it seems likely that his polling numbers among his own constituents factored into the decision.
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Favorability:
16% favorable | 41% unfavorable
Deserves to be Re-elected?:
26% does | 57% doesn’t
Reposted by Joel Sievert
Dear @raygunsite.com please make a limited run of POLLING IS NOT A CRIME shirts (with St. Ann's face or not) please and thank you
VICTORY: Federal court dismisses class action lawsuit against pollster J. Ann Selzer, filed by the “Center for American Rights”
www.thefire.org/news/victory...
www.thefire.org/news/victory...
VICTORY! Federal district court dismisses class-action suit against pollster J. Ann Selzer
Federal district court tosses ‘fake news’ lawsuit against pollster J. Ann Selzer, affirming First Amendment protections for election commentary.
www.thefire.org
November 6, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Dear @raygunsite.com please make a limited run of POLLING IS NOT A CRIME shirts (with St. Ann's face or not) please and thank you
Filibuster reform comes to the Texas US Senate GOP Primary
Cornyn open to filibuster reform; Hunt, Paxton want it gone
The president has sharpened his calls for Senate Republicans to kill the longstanding legislative maneuver, saying the GOP’s electoral success could hinge on it.
www.texastribune.org
November 6, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Filibuster reform comes to the Texas US Senate GOP Primary
Reposted by Joel Sievert
At least 15 incumbents lost in the state legislative elections in New Jersey & Virginia, with 6 New Jersey contests still uncalled as of 5:30 pm EST on 11/5. That’s the most general election incumbent defeats in an odd year since 21 were defeated in 2011. All 15 defeated incumbents were Republicans.
November 6, 2025 at 3:09 PM
At least 15 incumbents lost in the state legislative elections in New Jersey & Virginia, with 6 New Jersey contests still uncalled as of 5:30 pm EST on 11/5. That’s the most general election incumbent defeats in an odd year since 21 were defeated in 2011. All 15 defeated incumbents were Republicans.
What radicalized you against daylight savings time?
My toddler...
My toddler...
November 6, 2025 at 12:31 PM
What radicalized you against daylight savings time?
My toddler...
My toddler...
Reposted by Joel Sievert
“.. There were no counties or cities (as of writing) that moved right relative to four years ago. On average, they instead moved 13 points to the left.”
@pbump.com #Virginia
www.pbump.net/o/what-chang...
@pbump.com #Virginia
www.pbump.net/o/what-chang...
November 5, 2025 at 6:14 PM
“.. There were no counties or cities (as of writing) that moved right relative to four years ago. On average, they instead moved 13 points to the left.”
@pbump.com #Virginia
www.pbump.net/o/what-chang...
@pbump.com #Virginia
www.pbump.net/o/what-chang...
Happy to report that my students also got a good laugh out of the original tweet from the KY SOS
All jokes aside, this is a great example of Daniel Hopkins' point that nationalization is driven, in part, by people being more engaged with national rather than local politics.
November 5, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Happy to report that my students also got a good laugh out of the original tweet from the KY SOS
All jokes aside, this is a great example of Daniel Hopkins' point that nationalization is driven, in part, by people being more engaged with national rather than local politics.
November 5, 2025 at 2:06 PM
All jokes aside, this is a great example of Daniel Hopkins' point that nationalization is driven, in part, by people being more engaged with national rather than local politics.
Reposted by Joel Sievert
CONFIRMED: Georgia Democrats have won their first statewide elections for non-federal offices since *2006.*
The two Dem challengers, Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard, have ousted two GOP Republican commissioners on the state's utility commission.
The two Dem challengers, Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard, have ousted two GOP Republican commissioners on the state's utility commission.
November 5, 2025 at 2:58 AM
CONFIRMED: Georgia Democrats have won their first statewide elections for non-federal offices since *2006.*
The two Dem challengers, Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard, have ousted two GOP Republican commissioners on the state's utility commission.
The two Dem challengers, Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard, have ousted two GOP Republican commissioners on the state's utility commission.
Reposted by Joel Sievert
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
Reposted by Joel Sievert
The Ctr for Urban Research at @thegraduatecenter.bsky.social (led by @jomoko.bsky.social) has prepared an online map for tonight's NYC mayoral results. Link below in #thread. For now the map is blank, but it'll fill in w/unofficial returns tonight.
The map will do more than show the 2025 #s.
1/n
The map will do more than show the 2025 #s.
1/n
November 4, 2025 at 7:14 PM
The Ctr for Urban Research at @thegraduatecenter.bsky.social (led by @jomoko.bsky.social) has prepared an online map for tonight's NYC mayoral results. Link below in #thread. For now the map is blank, but it'll fill in w/unofficial returns tonight.
The map will do more than show the 2025 #s.
1/n
The map will do more than show the 2025 #s.
1/n
Reposted by Joel Sievert
To mark the 20th anniversary of @politicsgenderj.bsky.social past and current journal editors were asked to identify some of their favorite articles -
cup.org/4gbsfr7
Where not #OpenAccess these articles are free to read until the end of 2025.
cup.org/4gbsfr7
Where not #OpenAccess these articles are free to read until the end of 2025.
November 2, 2025 at 10:00 PM
To mark the 20th anniversary of @politicsgenderj.bsky.social past and current journal editors were asked to identify some of their favorite articles -
cup.org/4gbsfr7
Where not #OpenAccess these articles are free to read until the end of 2025.
cup.org/4gbsfr7
Where not #OpenAccess these articles are free to read until the end of 2025.
November is off to a mixed start.
Pro: article acceptance
Con: toddler wakes up at 5 am
Win some, lose some.
Pro: article acceptance
Con: toddler wakes up at 5 am
Win some, lose some.
November 3, 2025 at 12:52 PM
November is off to a mixed start.
Pro: article acceptance
Con: toddler wakes up at 5 am
Win some, lose some.
Pro: article acceptance
Con: toddler wakes up at 5 am
Win some, lose some.
Reposted by Joel Sievert
Me: “The fixation on causal estimates is not the appropriate direction social science…What descriptive analysis provides us with are facts. Facts are nouns. Causal analysis gives us contextual estimates. They are adjectives. In the grammar of social science, we should prefer nouns to adjectives.”
November 3, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Me: “The fixation on causal estimates is not the appropriate direction social science…What descriptive analysis provides us with are facts. Facts are nouns. Causal analysis gives us contextual estimates. They are adjectives. In the grammar of social science, we should prefer nouns to adjectives.”
I know we wrote that all politics are national, but this seems a step too far.
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
November 1, 2025 at 9:44 PM
I know we wrote that all politics are national, but this seems a step too far.
www.espn.com/college-foot...
www.espn.com/college-foot...
Reposted by Joel Sievert
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
November 1, 2025 at 1:54 AM
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Reposted by Joel Sievert
Fondly remembering the time that a reviewer wrote to me and @jsievert.bsky.social that filibuster reform was only a Democratic issue.
October 31, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Fondly remembering the time that a reviewer wrote to me and @jsievert.bsky.social that filibuster reform was only a Democratic issue.
Reviewer: Only the Democrats talk about filibuster reform.
Someone owes me and @kevinkbanda.bsky.social an apology!
rollcall.com/2025/10/31/t...
Someone owes me and @kevinkbanda.bsky.social an apology!
rollcall.com/2025/10/31/t...
Trump calls for Senate 'nuclear option' to end government shutdown - Roll Call
Trump called for Senate Republicans to end the shutdown by using the so-called "nuclear option" to eliminate the legislative filibuster.
rollcall.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Reviewer: Only the Democrats talk about filibuster reform.
Someone owes me and @kevinkbanda.bsky.social an apology!
rollcall.com/2025/10/31/t...
Someone owes me and @kevinkbanda.bsky.social an apology!
rollcall.com/2025/10/31/t...
Reposted by Joel Sievert
Economist/YouGov Oct 24-27: Government spending
% of Americans who want the government to increase spending on:
Veterans 72%
Social Security 69%
Medicare 64%
Education 62%
Medicaid 55%
The environment 53%
SNAP 47%
National defense 40%
Foreign aid 21%
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
% of Americans who want the government to increase spending on:
Veterans 72%
Social Security 69%
Medicare 64%
Education 62%
Medicaid 55%
The environment 53%
SNAP 47%
National defense 40%
Foreign aid 21%
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
October 29, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Economist/YouGov Oct 24-27: Government spending
% of Americans who want the government to increase spending on:
Veterans 72%
Social Security 69%
Medicare 64%
Education 62%
Medicaid 55%
The environment 53%
SNAP 47%
National defense 40%
Foreign aid 21%
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
% of Americans who want the government to increase spending on:
Veterans 72%
Social Security 69%
Medicare 64%
Education 62%
Medicaid 55%
The environment 53%
SNAP 47%
National defense 40%
Foreign aid 21%
today.yougov.com/politics/art...
I am once again upset with whoever it was that assigned all this reading for my grad seminar. He’s the worst.
October 28, 2025 at 10:46 PM
I am once again upset with whoever it was that assigned all this reading for my grad seminar. He’s the worst.