Jonas Haslbeck
@jmbh.bsky.social
Postdoc @ University of Amsterdam; working on Applied Statistics, Time Series Modeling, Dynamical Systems, Generative AI, Climate Change; www.jonashaslbeck.com
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
📢 Call for Papers:
We’re excited to announce an upcoming Psychometrika Special Issue on Data Intensive Methods in Psychometrics (think of using many datasets for methodological development), guest edited by @klint.bsky.social, @kyliegorney.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, Ben Domingue, and me.
We’re excited to announce an upcoming Psychometrika Special Issue on Data Intensive Methods in Psychometrics (think of using many datasets for methodological development), guest edited by @klint.bsky.social, @kyliegorney.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, Ben Domingue, and me.
January 15, 2026 at 5:26 PM
📢 Call for Papers:
We’re excited to announce an upcoming Psychometrika Special Issue on Data Intensive Methods in Psychometrics (think of using many datasets for methodological development), guest edited by @klint.bsky.social, @kyliegorney.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, Ben Domingue, and me.
We’re excited to announce an upcoming Psychometrika Special Issue on Data Intensive Methods in Psychometrics (think of using many datasets for methodological development), guest edited by @klint.bsky.social, @kyliegorney.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social, Ben Domingue, and me.
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
🌟📝 Just out in World Psychiatry:
Our new piece demonstrates the added value of dynamic symptom networks for predicting treatment outcomes beyond baseline severity & common covariates, with an added explained variance of 9-22% at post-treatment & follow-up.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Our new piece demonstrates the added value of dynamic symptom networks for predicting treatment outcomes beyond baseline severity & common covariates, with an added explained variance of 9-22% at post-treatment & follow-up.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
January 15, 2026 at 11:36 AM
🌟📝 Just out in World Psychiatry:
Our new piece demonstrates the added value of dynamic symptom networks for predicting treatment outcomes beyond baseline severity & common covariates, with an added explained variance of 9-22% at post-treatment & follow-up.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Our new piece demonstrates the added value of dynamic symptom networks for predicting treatment outcomes beyond baseline severity & common covariates, with an added explained variance of 9-22% at post-treatment & follow-up.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data.
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
WARN-D machine learning competition is live » Eiko Fried
If you share one single thing of our team in 2026—on social media or per email with your colleagues—please let it be this machine learning competition. It was half a decade of work to get here, especi...
eiko-fried.com
January 7, 2026 at 7:39 PM
After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data.
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
December 9, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Big new blogpost!
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more.
--> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful.
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
🚨Model Checking for Vector Autoregressive Models 🚨
In a new preprint, @joranjongerling.bsky.social, @bsiepe.bsky.social, @sachaepskamp.bsky.social, Lourens Waldorp and I provide a tutorial on model checking for Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models: osf.io/preprints/ps...
In a new preprint, @joranjongerling.bsky.social, @bsiepe.bsky.social, @sachaepskamp.bsky.social, Lourens Waldorp and I provide a tutorial on model checking for Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models: osf.io/preprints/ps...
December 3, 2025 at 6:52 AM
🚨Model Checking for Vector Autoregressive Models 🚨
In a new preprint, @joranjongerling.bsky.social, @bsiepe.bsky.social, @sachaepskamp.bsky.social, Lourens Waldorp and I provide a tutorial on model checking for Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models: osf.io/preprints/ps...
In a new preprint, @joranjongerling.bsky.social, @bsiepe.bsky.social, @sachaepskamp.bsky.social, Lourens Waldorp and I provide a tutorial on model checking for Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models: osf.io/preprints/ps...
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
🚨 Mapping climate change coverage
In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 50,000 articles about climate change from major German newspapers across the political spectrum (2010-2024) using large language models 🧵
🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 50,000 articles about climate change from major German newspapers across the political spectrum (2010-2024) using large language models 🧵
🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
December 2, 2025 at 9:37 AM
🚨 Mapping climate change coverage
In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 50,000 articles about climate change from major German newspapers across the political spectrum (2010-2024) using large language models 🧵
🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
In a new preprint, Simon Wimmer, @jmbh.bsky.social, and I analyzed over 50,000 articles about climate change from major German newspapers across the political spectrum (2010-2024) using large language models 🧵
🔗 Link: osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
We are beyond excited to announce that the applications are now open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change!
Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change.
More info: acscc.nl
Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change.
More info: acscc.nl
November 17, 2025 at 9:02 AM
We are beyond excited to announce that the applications are now open for the third Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change!
Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change.
More info: acscc.nl
Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate individuals on challenges related to climate change.
More info: acscc.nl
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
🚨Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate actions
In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵
🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵
🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
November 14, 2025 at 9:20 AM
🚨Techno-optimistic scientists take fewer climate actions
In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵
🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
In a new preprint, @colognaviktoria.bsky.social, @maiensachis.bsky.social, @jmbh.bsky.social & I examine techno-optimism among 9,199 scientists and how it relates to their civic engagement and lifestyle choices🧵
🔗 Link: tinyurl.com/hh94huzv
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
We built the openESM database:
▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place
▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software
▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python
Find out more:
🌐 openesmdata.org
📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...
▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place
▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software
▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python
Find out more:
🌐 openesmdata.org
📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...
October 22, 2025 at 7:34 PM
We built the openESM database:
▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place
▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software
▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python
Find out more:
🌐 openesmdata.org
📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...
▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place
▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software
▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python
Find out more:
🌐 openesmdata.org
📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
Happy to share that our large-scale network analysis is now out in @nathumbehav.nature.com
We show that networks are often supported by too little evidence from the data for results to be reported with confidence, not meaning that results are flawed but rather suggests caution in interpretation.
We show that networks are often supported by too little evidence from the data for results to be reported with confidence, not meaning that results are flawed but rather suggests caution in interpretation.
Psychometric network models have become increasingly popular in psychology and the social sciences. Huth et al. show that many reported network findings are based on weak or inconclusive evidence inviting caution when interpreting results.
Statistical evidence in psychological networks - Nature Human Behaviour
Psychometric network models have become increasingly popular in psychology and the social sciences. Huth et al. show that a large proportion of reported network findings are based on weak or inconclusive evidence inviting caution when interpreting results.
www.nature.com
October 13, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Happy to share that our large-scale network analysis is now out in @nathumbehav.nature.com
We show that networks are often supported by too little evidence from the data for results to be reported with confidence, not meaning that results are flawed but rather suggests caution in interpretation.
We show that networks are often supported by too little evidence from the data for results to be reported with confidence, not meaning that results are flawed but rather suggests caution in interpretation.
Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.
September 22, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
Experts with theoretical traditions, researchers experienced in approaches to theory construction, educators and policymakers work on the first steps toward creating a mature subfield of theoretical psychology. bit.ly/4nLOWoE @annemscheel.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @jmbh.bsky.social
September 22, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Experts with theoretical traditions, researchers experienced in approaches to theory construction, educators and policymakers work on the first steps toward creating a mature subfield of theoretical psychology. bit.ly/4nLOWoE @annemscheel.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @jmbh.bsky.social
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
Are climate activists portrayed as polarising & violent in the news media? Are risks & solutions to climate change mentioned?
We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer
We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer
July 23, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Are climate activists portrayed as polarising & violent in the news media? Are risks & solutions to climate change mentioned?
We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer
We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
“States must act now to end the violence or bear witness to the annihilation of the Palestinian population in Gaza – an outcome with irreversible consequences for our shared humanity”
End unfolding genocide or watch it end life in Gaza: UN experts say States face defining choice
GENEVA – Escalating atrocities in Gaza present an urgent moral crossroads and States must act now to end the violence or bear witness to the annihilation of the Palestinian population in Gaza – an out...
www.ohchr.org
May 8, 2025 at 3:09 PM
“States must act now to end the violence or bear witness to the annihilation of the Palestinian population in Gaza – an outcome with irreversible consequences for our shared humanity”
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
What a show on the last day of ACSCC 2025 where our brilliant participants presented the culmination of their week-long collaborations. Buckle up for today’s highlights👇
May 2, 2025 at 3:29 PM
What a show on the last day of ACSCC 2025 where our brilliant participants presented the culmination of their week-long collaborations. Buckle up for today’s highlights👇
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
Time flies and we are already halfway through ACSCC!
Today was kicked-off by @doynefarmer.bsky.social, who gave us a deep dive into forecasting technological progress. Doyne also shared his vision of complexity economics for a better world, and showcased his impressive modelling work at Macrocosm.
Today was kicked-off by @doynefarmer.bsky.social, who gave us a deep dive into forecasting technological progress. Doyne also shared his vision of complexity economics for a better world, and showcased his impressive modelling work at Macrocosm.
April 30, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Time flies and we are already halfway through ACSCC!
Today was kicked-off by @doynefarmer.bsky.social, who gave us a deep dive into forecasting technological progress. Doyne also shared his vision of complexity economics for a better world, and showcased his impressive modelling work at Macrocosm.
Today was kicked-off by @doynefarmer.bsky.social, who gave us a deep dive into forecasting technological progress. Doyne also shared his vision of complexity economics for a better world, and showcased his impressive modelling work at Macrocosm.
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
The second day of ACSCC was again full of inspiring lectures and discussions!
Day two was kicked-off by the keynote of Tim Lenton, who gave an introduction to tipping points and an update on the latest research, followed by a discussion about effective leverage points using positive tipping points.
Day two was kicked-off by the keynote of Tim Lenton, who gave an introduction to tipping points and an update on the latest research, followed by a discussion about effective leverage points using positive tipping points.
April 29, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The second day of ACSCC was again full of inspiring lectures and discussions!
Day two was kicked-off by the keynote of Tim Lenton, who gave an introduction to tipping points and an update on the latest research, followed by a discussion about effective leverage points using positive tipping points.
Day two was kicked-off by the keynote of Tim Lenton, who gave an introduction to tipping points and an update on the latest research, followed by a discussion about effective leverage points using positive tipping points.
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
The second edition of ACSCC is officially underway!
We had a fantastic first day, welcoming over 40 participants from a wide range of disciplines — including economists, lawyers, social scientists, metallurgists, and more. Once again, we are blessed with wonderful sunny weather here in Amsterdam! ☀️
We had a fantastic first day, welcoming over 40 participants from a wide range of disciplines — including economists, lawyers, social scientists, metallurgists, and more. Once again, we are blessed with wonderful sunny weather here in Amsterdam! ☀️
April 28, 2025 at 5:49 PM
The second edition of ACSCC is officially underway!
We had a fantastic first day, welcoming over 40 participants from a wide range of disciplines — including economists, lawyers, social scientists, metallurgists, and more. Once again, we are blessed with wonderful sunny weather here in Amsterdam! ☀️
We had a fantastic first day, welcoming over 40 participants from a wide range of disciplines — including economists, lawyers, social scientists, metallurgists, and more. Once again, we are blessed with wonderful sunny weather here in Amsterdam! ☀️
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
We are very excited about the line-up of speakers for ACSCC, which kicks off next week!
The following talks can also be followed online:
Tim Lenton: tinyurl.com/5d9ubts9
Joyeeta Gupta: tinyurl.com/kbk92rap
Doyne Farmer: tinyurl.com/vdrhjvwe
Vítor Vasconcelos: uva-live.zoom.us/j/89976716302
The following talks can also be followed online:
Tim Lenton: tinyurl.com/5d9ubts9
Joyeeta Gupta: tinyurl.com/kbk92rap
Doyne Farmer: tinyurl.com/vdrhjvwe
Vítor Vasconcelos: uva-live.zoom.us/j/89976716302
April 24, 2025 at 9:52 AM
We are very excited about the line-up of speakers for ACSCC, which kicks off next week!
The following talks can also be followed online:
Tim Lenton: tinyurl.com/5d9ubts9
Joyeeta Gupta: tinyurl.com/kbk92rap
Doyne Farmer: tinyurl.com/vdrhjvwe
Vítor Vasconcelos: uva-live.zoom.us/j/89976716302
The following talks can also be followed online:
Tim Lenton: tinyurl.com/5d9ubts9
Joyeeta Gupta: tinyurl.com/kbk92rap
Doyne Farmer: tinyurl.com/vdrhjvwe
Vítor Vasconcelos: uva-live.zoom.us/j/89976716302
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
How can Multilevel Hidden Markov Models help uncover personalized dynamics? Find out in the post-conference session on May 29 with Emmeke Aarts (Utrecht University), Jonas Haslbeck (University of Amsterdam), and Pepijn Vink (Utrecht University)! @jmbh.bsky.social
SAA 2025
Society for Ambulatory Assessment Conference 2025
www.saa2025.com
April 2, 2025 at 2:51 PM
How can Multilevel Hidden Markov Models help uncover personalized dynamics? Find out in the post-conference session on May 29 with Emmeke Aarts (Utrecht University), Jonas Haslbeck (University of Amsterdam), and Pepijn Vink (Utrecht University)! @jmbh.bsky.social
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
1/3
Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with:
- Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding
- Models to get some first insights
- Further reading boxes for more advanced topics
- Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data
Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with:
- Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding
- Models to get some first insights
- Further reading boxes for more advanced topics
- Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data
February 13, 2025 at 12:04 PM
1/3
Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with:
- Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding
- Models to get some first insights
- Further reading boxes for more advanced topics
- Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data
Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with:
- Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding
- Models to get some first insights
- Further reading boxes for more advanced topics
- Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data
New preprint by Anja Ernst and me on Modeling Qualitative Between-Person Heterogeneity in Time-Series using Latent Class Vector Autoregressive Models (osf.io/preprints/ps...)
February 13, 2025 at 3:06 PM
New preprint by Anja Ernst and me on Modeling Qualitative Between-Person Heterogeneity in Time-Series using Latent Class Vector Autoregressive Models (osf.io/preprints/ps...)
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
🚨 New preprint! 🚨
We analysed over one million actions reported in the AWorld app, the UN's official platform for individual action on climate change: osf.io/preprints/ps...
This was an exciting collaboration with @kristiansn89.bsky.social, Jan Bauer, Laura Basconi, & @cameronbrick.bsky.social 🧵👇
We analysed over one million actions reported in the AWorld app, the UN's official platform for individual action on climate change: osf.io/preprints/ps...
This was an exciting collaboration with @kristiansn89.bsky.social, Jan Bauer, Laura Basconi, & @cameronbrick.bsky.social 🧵👇
January 24, 2025 at 11:29 AM
🚨 New preprint! 🚨
We analysed over one million actions reported in the AWorld app, the UN's official platform for individual action on climate change: osf.io/preprints/ps...
This was an exciting collaboration with @kristiansn89.bsky.social, Jan Bauer, Laura Basconi, & @cameronbrick.bsky.social 🧵👇
We analysed over one million actions reported in the AWorld app, the UN's official platform for individual action on climate change: osf.io/preprints/ps...
This was an exciting collaboration with @kristiansn89.bsky.social, Jan Bauer, Laura Basconi, & @cameronbrick.bsky.social 🧵👇
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
Are psychometric networks sufficiently supported by data such that one can be confident when interpreting its results? We analysed 294 psychometric networks from 126 papers with the Bayesian approach to address this question @jmbh.bsky.social Sara Ruth van Holst @maartenmarsman.bsky.social 🧵
Statistical Evidence in Psychological Networks: A Bayesian Analysis of 294 Networks from 126 Studies: http://osf.io/62ydg/
January 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Are psychometric networks sufficiently supported by data such that one can be confident when interpreting its results? We analysed 294 psychometric networks from 126 papers with the Bayesian approach to address this question @jmbh.bsky.social Sara Ruth van Holst @maartenmarsman.bsky.social 🧵
Reposted by Jonas Haslbeck
🔍 Speaker Spotlight: Tim Lenton
We are honored to have leading Earth system scientist Tim Lenton, who introduced 'climate tipping points' to the literature. Recently, his focus expanded to social tipping points as means to a sustainable future.
⏳ Last chance to apply at acscc.nl
We are honored to have leading Earth system scientist Tim Lenton, who introduced 'climate tipping points' to the literature. Recently, his focus expanded to social tipping points as means to a sustainable future.
⏳ Last chance to apply at acscc.nl
Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change
acscc.nl
January 20, 2025 at 9:47 AM
🔍 Speaker Spotlight: Tim Lenton
We are honored to have leading Earth system scientist Tim Lenton, who introduced 'climate tipping points' to the literature. Recently, his focus expanded to social tipping points as means to a sustainable future.
⏳ Last chance to apply at acscc.nl
We are honored to have leading Earth system scientist Tim Lenton, who introduced 'climate tipping points' to the literature. Recently, his focus expanded to social tipping points as means to a sustainable future.
⏳ Last chance to apply at acscc.nl