Jonas Haslbeck
jmbh.bsky.social
Jonas Haslbeck
@jmbh.bsky.social
Postdoc @ University of Amsterdam; working on Applied Statistics, Time Series Modeling, Dynamical Systems, Generative AI, Climate Change; www.jonashaslbeck.com
September 22, 2025 at 11:14 AM
We found that model selection was successful for state separations similar to the ones we found in empirical data and estimation error was satisfactory for realistic numbers of observations and subjects.
September 22, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Going beyond existing simulations, we independently varied the number of true states, the state separation, the number of variables, the number of time points, and the number of subjects.
September 22, 2025 at 11:13 AM
In the first paper with Emmeke Aarts (osf.io/preprints/ps...) we provide a gentle introduction to (multilevel) HMMs and walk the reader through a fully reproducible tutorial on model specification, estimation, selection, and interpretation by analyzing a typical EMA emotion time series dataset.
September 22, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.
September 22, 2025 at 11:10 AM
... and provide a fully reproducible step-by-step tutorial on model estimation, selection, diagnostics and interpretation.
February 13, 2025 at 3:09 PM
New preprint by Anja Ernst and me on Modeling Qualitative Between-Person Heterogeneity in Time-Series using Latent Class Vector Autoregressive Models (osf.io/preprints/ps...)
February 13, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Drawing on existing (process) theories of emotion, we outline how our model can be extended to render it adaptive, include learning, and include inter-individual differences 3/4
January 7, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Despite the fact that our model is extremely simple and clearly incomplete, it already reproduces nine statistical phenomena which have been established in the emotion time series literature.
2/4
January 7, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Emotions are reactions to situations we encounter in daily life. In our new paper in Psych Review (psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...; with @oisinryan.bsky.social and @fdabl.bsky.social), we take a first step towards building a generative model for emotion dynamics based on this simple principle 1/4
January 7, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Eager to tackle challenges related to climate change?

Then apply for the upcoming Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change (ACSCC), hosted by the Institute for Advanced Study, which brings together early-career researchers from all disciplines and non-academic stakeholders.

Website: acscc.nl
November 12, 2024 at 10:54 PM