Josh Kertzer
@jkertzer.bsky.social
John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and of Government at Harvard University | International relations 🤝 political psychology
jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu
jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
NEW -
Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - https://cup.org/3YSsX4N
- @rachelmyrick.bsky.social & @wpmarble.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - https://cup.org/3YSsX4N
- @rachelmyrick.bsky.social & @wpmarble.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
January 2, 2026 at 10:10 AM
NEW -
Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - https://cup.org/3YSsX4N
- @rachelmyrick.bsky.social & @wpmarble.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Foreign Policy Failures and Global Attitudes Towards Great Powers: Evidence from the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan - https://cup.org/3YSsX4N
- @rachelmyrick.bsky.social & @wpmarble.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Coauthors Liz Sperber, O’Brien Kaaba and I have published 3 papers about youth civic ed and political participation, based on a WhatsApp experiment and a prior in-person pilot conducted in collaboration w/ Caritas Zambia CCMG Zambia @poverty-action.bsky.social and United Council of Churches Zambia
NEW -
Reducing Gender Gaps in Political Participation with Efficacy Promotion: Evidence from a Civic Education Experiment in Zambia - https://cup.org/4q7MBpt
- @gmcclendon.bsky.social, Elizabeth Sperb & O’Brien Kaaba
#OpenAccess
Reducing Gender Gaps in Political Participation with Efficacy Promotion: Evidence from a Civic Education Experiment in Zambia - https://cup.org/4q7MBpt
- @gmcclendon.bsky.social, Elizabeth Sperb & O’Brien Kaaba
#OpenAccess
December 29, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Coauthors Liz Sperber, O’Brien Kaaba and I have published 3 papers about youth civic ed and political participation, based on a WhatsApp experiment and a prior in-person pilot conducted in collaboration w/ Caritas Zambia CCMG Zambia @poverty-action.bsky.social and United Council of Churches Zambia
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵
December 8, 2025 at 10:01 PM
New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Some news. My book on climate and security for Cambridge University Press is the winner of the 2026 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Advancing World Order. Thrilled to be among the august company of previous winners. www.uoflnews.com/post/uofltod...
2026 Grawemeyer world order award winner explores the connection between climate change and security | UofL News
For his work to understand why climate change leads to negative security consequences in some places and not others, Joshua W. Busby, professor of public affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, ...
www.uoflnews.com
December 2, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Some news. My book on climate and security for Cambridge University Press is the winner of the 2026 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Advancing World Order. Thrilled to be among the august company of previous winners. www.uoflnews.com/post/uofltod...
A friendly reminder that some of you should really spend less time online
"ladies and gentlemen, the weeknd" (HD Original)
YouTube video by Steadfast
youtu.be
November 30, 2025 at 3:31 PM
A friendly reminder that some of you should really spend less time online
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
NEWS -
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 24, 2025 at 2:50 PM
NEWS -
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA
"right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support"
- Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Our online special issue, The Future of Global Governance and World Order, is out!
It features 15 short essays plus the editors' introduction, all #OpenAccess.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
#IOFoGG
It features 15 short essays plus the editors' introduction, all #OpenAccess.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
#IOFoGG
November 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Our online special issue, The Future of Global Governance and World Order, is out!
It features 15 short essays plus the editors' introduction, all #OpenAccess.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
#IOFoGG
It features 15 short essays plus the editors' introduction, all #OpenAccess.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
#IOFoGG
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
For the first Encode/Decode post, go back to @jkertzer.bsky.social, @ryanbrutger.bsky.social & Kai Quek's @worldpolitics.bsky.social article using cross-national #survey #experiments in #China and the #US to test for a #security dilemma. Read their original #empirical work: doi.org/10.1353/wp.2...
October 22, 2025 at 4:56 PM
For the first Encode/Decode post, go back to @jkertzer.bsky.social, @ryanbrutger.bsky.social & Kai Quek's @worldpolitics.bsky.social article using cross-national #survey #experiments in #China and the #US to test for a #security dilemma. Read their original #empirical work: doi.org/10.1353/wp.2...
Congratulations to @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for the launch of the Global Public Opinion Lab (GPOL) at Florida State! Lots of exciting plans in the works!
(I couldn't take any pictures of public opinion, so here's one of Spanish moss)
(I couldn't take any pictures of public opinion, so here's one of Spanish moss)
November 18, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Congratulations to @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for the launch of the Global Public Opinion Lab (GPOL) at Florida State! Lots of exciting plans in the works!
(I couldn't take any pictures of public opinion, so here's one of Spanish moss)
(I couldn't take any pictures of public opinion, so here's one of Spanish moss)
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social.
Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
doi.org
November 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social.
Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
You could not pay me enough to voluntarily use a yeet() or no_cap() command in R
November 7, 2025 at 5:53 PM
You could not pay me enough to voluntarily use a yeet() or no_cap() command in R
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
We propose a spatiotemporal causal inference framework that fully leverages microlevel, granular data. ATE, heterogeneity, and mediation — all in one framework. Now with updated results and visualizations!
🚨New paper🚨: Are you interested in key debates about civil war and counterinsurgency? Like questions about causal inference but wish you had a better method for dealing with spillover and carryover effects? Then check out our new paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover and carryover effects: Airstrikes and insurgent violence in the Iraq War
Social scientists now routinely draw on high-frequency, high-granularity ''microlevel'' data to estimate the causal effects of subnational interventions. To date, most researchers aggregate these data...
arxiv.org
November 7, 2025 at 4:56 PM
We propose a spatiotemporal causal inference framework that fully leverages microlevel, granular data. ATE, heterogeneity, and mediation — all in one framework. Now with updated results and visualizations!
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social :
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social :
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
“The divide between international relations theory and practice is problematic in normal times, and downright dangerous in turbulent ones,” write Stacie Goddard and @jkertzer.bsky.social.
How to Put IR Theory Into Practice
American strategists should think more like social scientists.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 31, 2025 at 4:04 PM
“The divide between international relations theory and practice is problematic in normal times, and downright dangerous in turbulent ones,” write Stacie Goddard and @jkertzer.bsky.social.
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
1/In honor of no kings! Imagine an international order organized not around nation-states but hyper elites pledged to absolute rulers. Welcome to neo-royalism. New w/Stacie Goddard in International Organization. We use the approach to rethink US policy in Trump era.
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com
October 16, 2025 at 10:50 AM
1/In honor of no kings! Imagine an international order organized not around nation-states but hyper elites pledged to absolute rulers. Welcome to neo-royalism. New w/Stacie Goddard in International Organization. We use the approach to rethink US policy in Trump era.
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
In Polarization and International Politics, @rachelmyrick.bsky.social explains how extreme polarization undermines the advantages that democracies have when formulating foreign policy.
Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
October 11, 2025 at 7:28 PM
In Polarization and International Politics, @rachelmyrick.bsky.social explains how extreme polarization undermines the advantages that democracies have when formulating foreign policy.
Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Applications for the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance's postdoctoral fellowship program for 2026-2027 are due Monday, October 13.
Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...
Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...
Application for Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance - Postdoctoral Research Associate
www.princeton.edu
October 7, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Applications for the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance's postdoctoral fellowship program for 2026-2027 are due Monday, October 13.
Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...
Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
According to the “Global Terrorism Database (GTD)—arguably the most widely-used dataset in the study of political violence—anti-abortion activists constitute the single most common perpetrators of terrorist attacks in the United States.”
Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...
Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...
September 15, 2025 at 8:33 PM
According to the “Global Terrorism Database (GTD)—arguably the most widely-used dataset in the study of political violence—anti-abortion activists constitute the single most common perpetrators of terrorist attacks in the United States.”
Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...
Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...
🚨 Exciting news! Harvard has two open senior searches this fall:
1️⃣ International Security
2️⃣ American Politics
I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152
1️⃣ International Security
2️⃣ American Politics
I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152
TENURED PROFESSOR IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The Department of Government seeks to appoint a tenured professor in International Relations with a focus on International Security. The appointment is expected to begin on July 1, 2026. The professor...
academicpositions.harvard.edu
September 7, 2025 at 7:04 PM
🚨 Exciting news! Harvard has two open senior searches this fall:
1️⃣ International Security
2️⃣ American Politics
I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152
1️⃣ International Security
2️⃣ American Politics
I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Working on political psychology research with a focus on East Asia? A new special issue of our journal will center East Asia to broaden the field’s geographic & cultural assumptions. Find the call in the Special Issues section of the link below & consider submitting your work! linktr.ee/POPSjournal
September 2, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Working on political psychology research with a focus on East Asia? A new special issue of our journal will center East Asia to broaden the field’s geographic & cultural assumptions. Find the call in the Special Issues section of the link below & consider submitting your work! linktr.ee/POPSjournal
Congratulations @mlandauwells.bsky.social!
Congratulations to @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social's Marika Landau-Wells, winner of the Robert O. Keohane award for the best research article in IO published by an untenured scholar (or scholars) in 2024.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
August 22, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Congratulations @mlandauwells.bsky.social!
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
🚨 It’s publication day!
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu
August 15, 2025 at 3:34 PM
🚨 It’s publication day!
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Now out open access in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, & I investigate US reassurance efforts in 2023 during Russia's war on Ukraine.
We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
August 14, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Now out open access in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, & I investigate US reassurance efforts in 2023 during Russia's war on Ukraine.
We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
New working paper: “Survey Estimates of Wartime Mortality,” with Gary King, available at gking.harvard.edu/sibs. We provide the first formal proofs of the statistical properties of existing mortality estimators, along with empirical illustrations, to develop intuitions that guide best practices.
July 30, 2025 at 1:34 AM
New working paper: “Survey Estimates of Wartime Mortality,” with Gary King, available at gking.harvard.edu/sibs. We provide the first formal proofs of the statistical properties of existing mortality estimators, along with empirical illustrations, to develop intuitions that guide best practices.
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Thrilled to share the cover of my upcoming book, out February 2026 from @oxfordacademic.bsky.social
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
July 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Thrilled to share the cover of my upcoming book, out February 2026 from @oxfordacademic.bsky.social
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...