Josh Kertzer
@jkertzer.bsky.social
John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and of Government at Harvard University | International relations 🤝 political psychology
jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu
jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social.
Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
doi.org
November 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social.
Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence.
doi.org/10.1017/eis....
You could not pay me enough to voluntarily use a yeet() or no_cap() command in R
November 7, 2025 at 5:53 PM
You could not pay me enough to voluntarily use a yeet() or no_cap() command in R
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
We propose a spatiotemporal causal inference framework that fully leverages microlevel, granular data. ATE, heterogeneity, and mediation — all in one framework. Now with updated results and visualizations!
🚨New paper🚨: Are you interested in key debates about civil war and counterinsurgency? Like questions about causal inference but wish you had a better method for dealing with spillover and carryover effects? Then check out our new paper:
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover and carryover effects: Airstrikes and insurgent violence in the Iraq War
Social scientists now routinely draw on high-frequency, high-granularity ''microlevel'' data to estimate the causal effects of subnational interventions. To date, most researchers aggregate these data...
arxiv.org
November 7, 2025 at 4:56 PM
We propose a spatiotemporal causal inference framework that fully leverages microlevel, granular data. ATE, heterogeneity, and mediation — all in one framework. Now with updated results and visualizations!
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social :
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social :
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
“The divide between international relations theory and practice is problematic in normal times, and downright dangerous in turbulent ones,” write Stacie Goddard and @jkertzer.bsky.social.
How to Put IR Theory Into Practice
American strategists should think more like social scientists.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 31, 2025 at 4:04 PM
“The divide between international relations theory and practice is problematic in normal times, and downright dangerous in turbulent ones,” write Stacie Goddard and @jkertzer.bsky.social.
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
1/In honor of no kings! Imagine an international order organized not around nation-states but hyper elites pledged to absolute rulers. Welcome to neo-royalism. New w/Stacie Goddard in International Organization. We use the approach to rethink US policy in Trump era.
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com
October 16, 2025 at 10:50 AM
1/In honor of no kings! Imagine an international order organized not around nation-states but hyper elites pledged to absolute rulers. Welcome to neo-royalism. New w/Stacie Goddard in International Organization. We use the approach to rethink US policy in Trump era.
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mxthh...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
In Polarization and International Politics, @rachelmyrick.bsky.social explains how extreme polarization undermines the advantages that democracies have when formulating foreign policy.
Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
October 11, 2025 at 7:28 PM
In Polarization and International Politics, @rachelmyrick.bsky.social explains how extreme polarization undermines the advantages that democracies have when formulating foreign policy.
Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
Available worldwide. Explore a free sample of this timely book: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Applications for the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance's postdoctoral fellowship program for 2026-2027 are due Monday, October 13.
Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...
Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...
Application for Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance - Postdoctoral Research Associate
www.princeton.edu
October 7, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Applications for the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance's postdoctoral fellowship program for 2026-2027 are due Monday, October 13.
Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...
Details here: www.princeton.edu/acad-positio...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
According to the “Global Terrorism Database (GTD)—arguably the most widely-used dataset in the study of political violence—anti-abortion activists constitute the single most common perpetrators of terrorist attacks in the United States.”
Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...
Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...
September 15, 2025 at 8:33 PM
According to the “Global Terrorism Database (GTD)—arguably the most widely-used dataset in the study of political violence—anti-abortion activists constitute the single most common perpetrators of terrorist attacks in the United States.”
Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...
Source: jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu/Research_fil...
🚨 Exciting news! Harvard has two open senior searches this fall:
1️⃣ International Security
2️⃣ American Politics
I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152
1️⃣ International Security
2️⃣ American Politics
I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152
TENURED PROFESSOR IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The Department of Government seeks to appoint a tenured professor in International Relations with a focus on International Security. The appointment is expected to begin on July 1, 2026. The professor...
academicpositions.harvard.edu
September 7, 2025 at 7:04 PM
🚨 Exciting news! Harvard has two open senior searches this fall:
1️⃣ International Security
2️⃣ American Politics
I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152
1️⃣ International Security
2️⃣ American Politics
I'm blissfully on post-DGS sabbatical and am not on either committee, but if you're curious about if you should apply, the answer is yes ☺️
academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15152
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Working on political psychology research with a focus on East Asia? A new special issue of our journal will center East Asia to broaden the field’s geographic & cultural assumptions. Find the call in the Special Issues section of the link below & consider submitting your work! linktr.ee/POPSjournal
September 2, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Working on political psychology research with a focus on East Asia? A new special issue of our journal will center East Asia to broaden the field’s geographic & cultural assumptions. Find the call in the Special Issues section of the link below & consider submitting your work! linktr.ee/POPSjournal
Congratulations @mlandauwells.bsky.social!
Congratulations to @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social's Marika Landau-Wells, winner of the Robert O. Keohane award for the best research article in IO published by an untenured scholar (or scholars) in 2024.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
August 22, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Congratulations @mlandauwells.bsky.social!
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
🚨 It’s publication day!
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu
August 15, 2025 at 3:34 PM
🚨 It’s publication day!
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Now out open access in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, & I investigate US reassurance efforts in 2023 during Russia's war on Ukraine.
We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
August 14, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Now out open access in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, & I investigate US reassurance efforts in 2023 during Russia's war on Ukraine.
We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
We conducted public opinion surveys in 24 countries on 6 continents.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
New working paper: “Survey Estimates of Wartime Mortality,” with Gary King, available at gking.harvard.edu/sibs. We provide the first formal proofs of the statistical properties of existing mortality estimators, along with empirical illustrations, to develop intuitions that guide best practices.
July 30, 2025 at 1:34 AM
New working paper: “Survey Estimates of Wartime Mortality,” with Gary King, available at gking.harvard.edu/sibs. We provide the first formal proofs of the statistical properties of existing mortality estimators, along with empirical illustrations, to develop intuitions that guide best practices.
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Thrilled to share the cover of my upcoming book, out February 2026 from @oxfordacademic.bsky.social
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
July 29, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Thrilled to share the cover of my upcoming book, out February 2026 from @oxfordacademic.bsky.social
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE
The Radical Environmental Movement and the Climate Crisis
global.oup.com/academic/pro...
You'll never guess what Barbra Streisand is up to
July 27, 2025 at 2:51 PM
You'll never guess what Barbra Streisand is up to
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Excited to report my article "Digital Interdependence and Power Politics" has been published open access in @bjpols.bsky.social. I use internet measurements to understand how international security influences global data flows www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Digital Interdependence and Power Politics | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Digital Interdependence and Power Politics - Volume 55
www.cambridge.org
July 14, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Excited to report my article "Digital Interdependence and Power Politics" has been published open access in @bjpols.bsky.social. I use internet measurements to understand how international security influences global data flows www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Lots going on lately here, but I wanted to take a moment to congratulate our incredible Harvard Government PhD graduates! 🎓🫶
May 30, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Lots going on lately here, but I wanted to take a moment to congratulate our incredible Harvard Government PhD graduates! 🎓🫶
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
My ambassador paper with Shu Fu is out in @worldpolitics.bsky.social!
Ambassadors promote domestic exports to a host country and represent the interests of their home country at large. However, are trade benefits equally distributed domestically? 🧵
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
Ambassadors promote domestic exports to a host country and represent the interests of their home country at large. However, are trade benefits equally distributed domestically? 🧵
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
May 8, 2025 at 9:22 PM
My ambassador paper with Shu Fu is out in @worldpolitics.bsky.social!
Ambassadors promote domestic exports to a host country and represent the interests of their home country at large. However, are trade benefits equally distributed domestically? 🧵
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
Ambassadors promote domestic exports to a host country and represent the interests of their home country at large. However, are trade benefits equally distributed domestically? 🧵
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
How can we identify causal effects using micro-level data? Our new framework estimates ATEs, probes causal mechanisms, and uncovers heterogeneity—all in one. We illustrate it with an analysis of airstrikes and insurgent attacks in Iraq. arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
Spatiotemporal causal inference with arbitrary spillover and carryover effects
Micro-level data with granular spatial and temporal information are becoming increasingly available to social scientists. Most researchers aggregate such data into a convenient panel data format and a...
arxiv.org
April 7, 2025 at 11:32 AM
How can we identify causal effects using micro-level data? Our new framework estimates ATEs, probes causal mechanisms, and uncovers heterogeneity—all in one. We illustrate it with an analysis of airstrikes and insurgent attacks in Iraq. arxiv.org/abs/2504.03464
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
Delighted and honored to receive the 2025 Karl Deutsch Award from the International Studies Association. I attribute this almost entirely to my luck in having amazing colleagues, mentors, collaborators and students over the years; I've been incredibly fortunate.
@isanet.bsky.social
#ISA2025
@isanet.bsky.social
#ISA2025
March 4, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Delighted and honored to receive the 2025 Karl Deutsch Award from the International Studies Association. I attribute this almost entirely to my luck in having amazing colleagues, mentors, collaborators and students over the years; I've been incredibly fortunate.
@isanet.bsky.social
#ISA2025
@isanet.bsky.social
#ISA2025
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
greatest political science achievement is getting “best flavor” in the department Bake Off?
my PhD cohort social core all won @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social @cerny.bsky.social. Congrats to @gabrielaarmani.bsky.social for winning the judicial electoral college + popular vote —pretty good in the US !
my PhD cohort social core all won @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social @cerny.bsky.social. Congrats to @gabrielaarmani.bsky.social for winning the judicial electoral college + popular vote —pretty good in the US !
February 28, 2025 at 12:33 AM
greatest political science achievement is getting “best flavor” in the department Bake Off?
my PhD cohort social core all won @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social @cerny.bsky.social. Congrats to @gabrielaarmani.bsky.social for winning the judicial electoral college + popular vote —pretty good in the US !
my PhD cohort social core all won @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social @cerny.bsky.social. Congrats to @gabrielaarmani.bsky.social for winning the judicial electoral college + popular vote —pretty good in the US !
The 3rd Annual Great CGIS Bakeoff was a triumph!
Congratulations to Gabriela Armani for her doubly-winning Brazilian Banoffee, & runner-up Aleksandra Conevska! 🏆
Category winners:
🍪 @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social
🥮 @cerny.bsky.social
🥧 @malpas.bsky.social
☕️ Lucia Mendoza
🏆 @chriskenny.bsky.social
Congratulations to Gabriela Armani for her doubly-winning Brazilian Banoffee, & runner-up Aleksandra Conevska! 🏆
Category winners:
🍪 @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social
🥮 @cerny.bsky.social
🥧 @malpas.bsky.social
☕️ Lucia Mendoza
🏆 @chriskenny.bsky.social
February 28, 2025 at 12:05 AM
The 3rd Annual Great CGIS Bakeoff was a triumph!
Congratulations to Gabriela Armani for her doubly-winning Brazilian Banoffee, & runner-up Aleksandra Conevska! 🏆
Category winners:
🍪 @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social
🥮 @cerny.bsky.social
🥧 @malpas.bsky.social
☕️ Lucia Mendoza
🏆 @chriskenny.bsky.social
Congratulations to Gabriela Armani for her doubly-winning Brazilian Banoffee, & runner-up Aleksandra Conevska! 🏆
Category winners:
🍪 @marchvidkjaer.bsky.social
🥮 @cerny.bsky.social
🥧 @malpas.bsky.social
☕️ Lucia Mendoza
🏆 @chriskenny.bsky.social
Reposted by Josh Kertzer
I'm very happy that we were able to rerun our 2022 conjoint experiment on Ukrainians' attitudes towards the war and its brutal tradeoffs in Dec '24/Jan '25. See below article in Foreign Affairs for a summary. More details in our (short) working paper here www.carlmueller-crepon.org/publication/...
February 26, 2025 at 1:29 PM
I'm very happy that we were able to rerun our 2022 conjoint experiment on Ukrainians' attitudes towards the war and its brutal tradeoffs in Dec '24/Jan '25. See below article in Foreign Affairs for a summary. More details in our (short) working paper here www.carlmueller-crepon.org/publication/...