Iván Tubío Sanlés
@ivantubiosanles.bsky.social
PhD student at Princeton. Political Economy. He/his #firstgen. https://politics.princeton.edu/people/ivan-tubio-sanles
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
1/🧵 "More voters help Republicans" is reshaping Dem strategy after 2024. We put this claim to the test with a deep dive into voter files and survey data. Results? Non-voters remain disproportionately Democratic while GOP simply turns out their base better.
Does Higher Turnout Now Help Republicans? A Data-Driven Analysis of Partisan Turnout Dynamics (Part 1)
Data analysis reveals Democrats' problem isn't high turnout—it's losing the mobilization battle
open.substack.com
April 2, 2025 at 1:57 AM
1/🧵 "More voters help Republicans" is reshaping Dem strategy after 2024. We put this claim to the test with a deep dive into voter files and survey data. Results? Non-voters remain disproportionately Democratic while GOP simply turns out their base better.
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
Cory Booker has officially taken over the Senate floor for over 20 hours to call out Trump’s assault on the Constitution.
And is still going.
And is still going.
Cory Booker is doing something incredible on the Senate floor. If you're not watching, you need to watch: www.youtube.com/live/Ej6locU...
LIVE: Cory Booker goes for floor speech RECORD
YouTube video by Brian Tyler Cohen
www.youtube.com
April 1, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Cory Booker has officially taken over the Senate floor for over 20 hours to call out Trump’s assault on the Constitution.
And is still going.
And is still going.
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
Republicans are a party, Democrats are a coalition.
The Democratic Party’s problems are not about being moderate or left. That’s a consultant and pundit red herring
The problems are in party organization, the culture of “it’s their turn” nominations, candidate recruitment, gerontocracy, inability to shape media topics, and coming off hella lame
The problems are in party organization, the culture of “it’s their turn” nominations, candidate recruitment, gerontocracy, inability to shape media topics, and coming off hella lame
March 14, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Republicans are a party, Democrats are a coalition.
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
It seems I messed up by creating a new Substack for each new week. Now the three weeks are consolidated under adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary Everyone who subscribed to Week 1 can access it; others will have to subscribe. I will update it once a week for as long as I can bear it.
Diary
I decided to keep a record of my thoughts as events transpire, a diary.
adamprzeworski.substack.com
March 7, 2025 at 10:38 PM
It seems I messed up by creating a new Substack for each new week. Now the three weeks are consolidated under adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary Everyone who subscribed to Week 1 can access it; others will have to subscribe. I will update it once a week for as long as I can bear it.
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
A fundamental problem is the Democrats are utterly committed to the fallacy that public opinion polls are politics. This has destroyed their ability to actually do politics. 1/
The Democratic Party has no idea how angry its base is. Lead, right now, or get out of the way.
March 1, 2025 at 2:50 PM
A fundamental problem is the Democrats are utterly committed to the fallacy that public opinion polls are politics. This has destroyed their ability to actually do politics. 1/
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
This is a *must-read*, by one of the most insightful political scientists of democracy ever to have graced this subject.
I am keeping a diary of daily events, as they unfold open.substack.com/pub/adamprze... It is available to everyone. I am new to Substack, so please let me know if something is wrong with the link or the file.
Diary
Week 1
open.substack.com
February 19, 2025 at 5:58 PM
This is a *must-read*, by one of the most insightful political scientists of democracy ever to have graced this subject.
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
I am one of more than 750 political scientists who signed this statement "express[ing] our urgent concern about threats to the basic design of American government and democracy" drive.google.com/file/d/1lGk2...
Political science statement.pdf
drive.google.com
February 18, 2025 at 11:40 PM
I am one of more than 750 political scientists who signed this statement "express[ing] our urgent concern about threats to the basic design of American government and democracy" drive.google.com/file/d/1lGk2...
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
Here are the names of the USAID staffers who were killed serving our country.
afsa.org/sites/defaul...
afsa.org/sites/defaul...
February 15, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Here are the names of the USAID staffers who were killed serving our country.
afsa.org/sites/defaul...
afsa.org/sites/defaul...
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
These people think running the most powerful government in the world is a part time job. The hubris is off the scale
February 14, 2025 at 5:08 PM
These people think running the most powerful government in the world is a part time job. The hubris is off the scale
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
I have several papers that explore tariff wars using economic models. Here’s what they tell us about likely outcomes (🧵)
TLDR: All countries ultimately lose. While the overall impact isn’t catastrophic for larger economies like the US, it’ll be devastating for small countries.
TLDR: All countries ultimately lose. While the overall impact isn’t catastrophic for larger economies like the US, it’ll be devastating for small countries.
February 2, 2025 at 7:49 PM
I have several papers that explore tariff wars using economic models. Here’s what they tell us about likely outcomes (🧵)
TLDR: All countries ultimately lose. While the overall impact isn’t catastrophic for larger economies like the US, it’ll be devastating for small countries.
TLDR: All countries ultimately lose. While the overall impact isn’t catastrophic for larger economies like the US, it’ll be devastating for small countries.
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
👏🥳Congratulations to MPhil students @ivantubiosanles.bsky.social, Linn Rustad, @arwamokdad.bsky.social, @sophiecardin.bsky.social, Elliot Johnston and Hugo Till, awarded @politicsoxford.bsky.social’s MPhil thesis prize for 2023-24 for the highest thesis mark in their cohort!: tinyurl.com/2s3c79t9
January 15, 2025 at 4:51 PM
👏🥳Congratulations to MPhil students @ivantubiosanles.bsky.social, Linn Rustad, @arwamokdad.bsky.social, @sophiecardin.bsky.social, Elliot Johnston and Hugo Till, awarded @politicsoxford.bsky.social’s MPhil thesis prize for 2023-24 for the highest thesis mark in their cohort!: tinyurl.com/2s3c79t9
I am very honoured to receive this recognition from the Politics department at Oxford for my MPhil thesis!
www.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/dpir-mp...
www.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/dpir-mp...
DPIR MPhil students awarded Department’s latest thesis prize
www.politics.ox.ac.uk
January 16, 2025 at 4:54 PM
I am very honoured to receive this recognition from the Politics department at Oxford for my MPhil thesis!
www.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/dpir-mp...
www.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/dpir-mp...
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
I’m so happy to announce that my book is now published and available open-access! (🧵coming soon, too :)
"A beautifully written and insightful take on the evolution of mental healthcare in advanced democracies, and one that opens a new lens on one of the most central, and largely unexamined, parts of the modern state."
The Welfare Workforce by Isabel M. Perera
Out now in #OpenAccess cup.org/3DQJizT
The Welfare Workforce by Isabel M. Perera
Out now in #OpenAccess cup.org/3DQJizT
The Welfare Workforce
Cambridge Core - Comparative Politics - The Welfare Workforce
cup.org
January 10, 2025 at 7:05 PM
I’m so happy to announce that my book is now published and available open-access! (🧵coming soon, too :)
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
Fantastic post!
My favorite way to procrastinate is to read self-help blogs for PhD students, so I guess this is the product of the year:
marchvidkjaer.substack.com/p/15-lesson-...
marchvidkjaer.substack.com/p/15-lesson-...
15 lesson from 2024
Or; what I picked up from other people and the internet.
marchvidkjaer.substack.com
December 31, 2024 at 12:12 PM
Fantastic post!
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
I am so glad to have had the encouragment from my friends - @icuervo.bsky.social, @ivantubiosanles.bsky.social and others - which pushed me to apply to @politicsoxford.bsky.social for my PhD.
December 11, 2024 at 11:56 AM
I am so glad to have had the encouragment from my friends - @icuervo.bsky.social, @ivantubiosanles.bsky.social and others - which pushed me to apply to @politicsoxford.bsky.social for my PhD.
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
It's application season and sometimes fear of rejections can keep us from applying to the places and programs we most wish to be studying at.
In my experience, self-doubt is especially wide-spread amongst women in academia.
In my experience, self-doubt is especially wide-spread amongst women in academia.
December 11, 2024 at 11:55 AM
It's application season and sometimes fear of rejections can keep us from applying to the places and programs we most wish to be studying at.
In my experience, self-doubt is especially wide-spread amongst women in academia.
In my experience, self-doubt is especially wide-spread amongst women in academia.
Kahneman meets Machiavelli: “Injuries, therefore, should be inflicted all at once, that their ill savour being less lasting may the less offend; whereas, benefits should be conferred little by little, that so they may be more fully relished.” Psychology confirming early pol sci
December 11, 2024 at 12:13 AM
Kahneman meets Machiavelli: “Injuries, therefore, should be inflicted all at once, that their ill savour being less lasting may the less offend; whereas, benefits should be conferred little by little, that so they may be more fully relished.” Psychology confirming early pol sci
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
To understand the widespread latent hostility toward American health insurance companies, read this.
Storytime.
In 2005, my mom died from cancer, but the real cause was the actions taken by an insurance company 12 years earlier. What happened to her was evil, hard to identify or fight, and hidden from the public by legal mechanisms. Because of that, I have no idea how often it has happened.
In 2005, my mom died from cancer, but the real cause was the actions taken by an insurance company 12 years earlier. What happened to her was evil, hard to identify or fight, and hidden from the public by legal mechanisms. Because of that, I have no idea how often it has happened.
December 8, 2024 at 2:10 PM
To understand the widespread latent hostility toward American health insurance companies, read this.
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
From our new issue: "Why Political Philosophy Should Be Robust" by Alexander Kirshner and Jeff Spinner-Halev. #ASPRNewIssue https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/why-political-philosophy-should-be-robust/26B9D80AB03F21393834E27FC59BC353
November 25, 2024 at 2:44 PM
From our new issue: "Why Political Philosophy Should Be Robust" by Alexander Kirshner and Jeff Spinner-Halev. #ASPRNewIssue https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/why-political-philosophy-should-be-robust/26B9D80AB03F21393834E27FC59BC353
Reposted by Iván Tubío Sanlés
🚨 New paper 🚨 with @pstanig.bsky.social forthcoming at @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 about the political consequences of climate-related disasters 🌲💦⚠️
Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇
Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇
November 29, 2024 at 12:49 PM
🚨 New paper 🚨 with @pstanig.bsky.social forthcoming at @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 about the political consequences of climate-related disasters 🌲💦⚠️
Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇
Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇