Mike Beuoy
@inpredict.bsky.social
actuary
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
creator of inpredictable.com
co-creator of evollve.net
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
If your team gives up a 5-0 run, you may be hoping your coach calls a timeout
But does it actually help?
@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:
evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...
But does it actually help?
@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:
evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...
Don't just do something, stand there!
A deep dive into the impact of coaching timeouts in NCAA women's volleyball
evollve.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:03 PM
If your team gives up a 5-0 run, you may be hoping your coach calls a timeout
But does it actually help?
@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:
evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...
But does it actually help?
@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:
evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...
Tonight's recap through 8 games:
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
November 11, 2025 at 5:28 AM
Tonight's recap through 8 games:
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
🔥🔥🔥👍🔥😐😐😴
Shorten the field. Everybody gets six downs and you only need 5 for a 1st down.
November 11, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Shorten the field. Everybody gets six downs and you only need 5 for a 1st down.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
🏐UC San Diego gets revenge in improbable fashion
🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary
🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database
Weekly recap⤵️
evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...
🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary
🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database
Weekly recap⤵️
evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...
Weekly Recap: Week 11
Thank you for supporting Evollve!
evollve.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
🏐UC San Diego gets revenge in improbable fashion
🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary
🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database
Weekly recap⤵️
evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...
🏐Double clutch performances in College of Charleston vs William & Mary
🏐Nebraska is the best team in our database
Weekly recap⤵️
evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...
Got Shea Serrano’s “Expensive Basketball” - it’s great having a reason to buy an actual hard copy book at an actual book store.
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
November 9, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Got Shea Serrano’s “Expensive Basketball” - it’s great having a reason to buy an actual hard copy book at an actual book store.
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
Skipped immediately to the Reggie Miller chapter (it’s perfect).
I like that the Falcons decided they won't kneel out the clock and go to OT.
November 9, 2025 at 5:31 PM
I like that the Falcons decided they won't kneel out the clock and go to OT.
I know that the broadcast clock isn’t official but….
November 9, 2025 at 5:26 PM
I know that the broadcast clock isn’t official but….
Deciding whether the Colts should let them score here has me doing the Larry David meme.
November 9, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Deciding whether the Colts should let them score here has me doing the Larry David meme.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
I run a frankly wonderful website called HockeyViz.com, to which you can subscribe at several different levels, each providing you with joy* and many charts about the NHL. You can subscribe at hockeyviz.com/subscribe, and this thread will tell you what you'll get.
October 18, 2025 at 3:12 PM
I run a frankly wonderful website called HockeyViz.com, to which you can subscribe at several different levels, each providing you with joy* and many charts about the NHL. You can subscribe at hockeyviz.com/subscribe, and this thread will tell you what you'll get.
I got bored and decided to see how many iconic songs I could name that begin with drums only.
Spotify playlist:
open.spotify.com/playlist/606...
Spotify playlist:
open.spotify.com/playlist/606...
Iconic songs that begin with drums only
open.spotify.com
November 4, 2025 at 6:56 PM
I got bored and decided to see how many iconic songs I could name that begin with drums only.
Spotify playlist:
open.spotify.com/playlist/606...
Spotify playlist:
open.spotify.com/playlist/606...
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Updated ACC projections -- Pitt is the frontrunner, but it may come down to beating Stanford a week from Friday!
November 4, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Updated ACC projections -- Pitt is the frontrunner, but it may come down to beating Stanford a week from Friday!
The Sixers 1st four games of the season:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
October 29, 2025 at 2:26 AM
The Sixers 1st four games of the season:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssnTeamG...
If you want to get precise and calculate the logarithms, the chances of getting an extra OT in the NBA are the same as getting an extra 2.7 innings of baseball.
2.7 = -log2(0.15)
Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.
2.7 = -log2(0.15)
Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.
We are now in quadruple overtime territory. In the World Series.
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
Chances that an NBA game in overtime goes to an additional overtime: ~15%
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
October 28, 2025 at 6:44 PM
If you want to get precise and calculate the logarithms, the chances of getting an extra OT in the NBA are the same as getting an extra 2.7 innings of baseball.
2.7 = -log2(0.15)
Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.
2.7 = -log2(0.15)
Under the (possibly faulty) assumption that there is a 50% chance each inning that the game will end.
We are now in quadruple overtime territory. In the World Series.
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
Chances that an NBA game in overtime goes to an additional overtime: ~15%
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
October 28, 2025 at 6:32 AM
We are now in quadruple overtime territory. In the World Series.
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
0.5^8 ~ 0.15^3
Chances that an NBA game in overtime goes to an additional overtime: ~15%
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
October 28, 2025 at 6:01 AM
Chances that an NBA game in overtime goes to an additional overtime: ~15%
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
Chances that an MLB playoff game in extra innings goes to another inning: ~50%
So, in NBA terms, we're somewhere between triple and quadruple overtime.
select <- dplyr::select
a person is pushing a large rock up a hill
ALT: a person is pushing a large rock up a hill
media.tenor.com
October 26, 2025 at 4:59 PM
select <- dplyr::select
About a dozen lemons showed up scattered in our backyard and pool yesterday. We do not have a lemon tree.
My most plausible theory at this point is that the neighbor’s kid got bored and…..just decided to start chucking lemons over the fence?
My most plausible theory at this point is that the neighbor’s kid got bored and…..just decided to start chucking lemons over the fence?
October 25, 2025 at 8:24 PM
About a dozen lemons showed up scattered in our backyard and pool yesterday. We do not have a lemon tree.
My most plausible theory at this point is that the neighbor’s kid got bored and…..just decided to start chucking lemons over the fence?
My most plausible theory at this point is that the neighbor’s kid got bored and…..just decided to start chucking lemons over the fence?
October 24, 2025 at 2:42 AM
That Mathurin 3 gave me 2025 playoff flashbacks.
October 24, 2025 at 2:01 AM
That Mathurin 3 gave me 2025 playoff flashbacks.
Reposted by Mike Beuoy
Week 7 Objective NFL Power Rankings
As always, grain of salt for injured QBs and their opponents (SF? ARI? CAR? WAS?)
As always, grain of salt for injured QBs and their opponents (SF? ARI? CAR? WAS?)
October 22, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Week 7 Objective NFL Power Rankings
As always, grain of salt for injured QBs and their opponents (SF? ARI? CAR? WAS?)
As always, grain of salt for injured QBs and their opponents (SF? ARI? CAR? WAS?)
somehow, the live win probabilities returned:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...
October 22, 2025 at 2:44 AM
somehow, the live win probabilities returned:
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...
stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox_li...
NHL betting market rankings (some would call them objective) are now live and updating daily.
The current top 10:
The current top 10:
October 21, 2025 at 4:46 PM
NHL betting market rankings (some would call them objective) are now live and updating daily.
The current top 10:
The current top 10: