Guido Grosse
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Guido Grosse
@grosseguido.bsky.social

Permafrost researcher and curious Arctic explorer, observer of rapid change. Spent some years in Alaska and Siberia, now at AWI Potsdam.

Environmental science 38%
Geology 28%

Nina published her new inventory of retrogressive thaw slumps in West Siberia, covering the Yamal, Gydan, and Tazovsky peninsulas. Thaw slumps evolve by rapidly melting ground ice in very ice-rich permafrost. The dataset is based on high-res sat data and manual verification. doi.org/10.5194/essd...
High-resolution inventory and classification of retrogressive thaw slumps in West Siberia
Abstract. Permafrost thaw disrupts ecosystems, hydrology, and biogeochemical cycles, reinforcing climate change through a positive permafrost-carbon feedback loop. Thaw can be gradual, deepening the a...
doi.org

Reposted by Guido Grosse

Die @zeit.de hat über einen See in Alaska berichtet, der aufgrund der Degradation von #Permafrost ausgelaufen ist und über damit zusammenhängende Forschung des @awi.de sowie Kooperationspartnern (Geschenk-Link): www.zeit.de/2025/44/klim....
Klimawandel: Und plötzlich war kein See mehr da
In Alaska verschwindet binnen Stunden ein See. Der Grund: tauender Permafrost. Forscher wollen nun wissen, wann das System kippen könnte und ganze Landschaften verändern.
www.zeit.de
I’ve got a short piece up in The Conversation on the catastrophic flooding in Southwest Alaska from ex-typhoon Halong and the challenges of recovery work. #akwx #ExtremeWeather #Alaska #AlaskaSky

theconversation.com/typhoon-leav...
Typhoon leaves flooded Alaska villages facing a storm recovery far tougher than most Americans will ever experience
‘As the storm approached Alaska, everything went sideways,’ leaving people no time to evacuate and little time to prepare. An Alaska meteorologist explains what happened and the challenges ahead.
theconversation.com

Reposted by Guido Grosse

There aren't very many proxies of past sea level during the Last Glacial Maximum (27,000-19,000 ybp). Jones et al present a sediment core from Beringia that transitioned from being a lake to being submerged by the ocean during the early parts of the deglaciation. www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Sea-level driven isolation of glacial plant refugia revealed by submerged lake sediment from the Bering Land Bridge and St. Matthew Island
Bering Land Bridge (BLB) climate and vegetation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) remains largely understudied, given challenges associated with collecting records from the submerged BLB. Previ...
www.tandfonline.com

Nice study with a large database of driftwood samples 👍. Carl will be venturing into various aspects of recent Arctic driftwood dynamics with remote sensing and AI over the next few years.

Thanks - yes, Carl is working on this.

Reposted by David N. Thomas

The many uses of #driftwood: the first large-scale mapping of Arctic coastlines. #AWI Press release for Carl‘s paper using AI to map driftwood abundance along the North American arctic coast with Planet satellite imagery. www.awi.de/en/about-us/...
Multitalent Treibholz: Erste großflächige Kartierung an arktischen Küsten - AWI
Driftwood plays a key role in Arctic coastal ecosystems: it stores carbon, stabilises coastlines and provides a habitat for animals. At the same time, it can offer clues regarding climate change in the Arctic region, providing information on the likes of storm surges, coastal erosion and shifting fluvial dynamics. Despite the crucial role it plays, there is still a lot that we do not know about the large-scale distribution patterns of driftwood. Now, for the first time, researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute have systematically mapped driftwood deposits along an 11,000 kilometre stretch of coastline in Alaska and North West Canada, using satellite imagery and AI-powered evaluation methods. The result is the largest database ever produced, with researchers able to identify over 19,000 stable driftwood deposits. The findings will soon be published in the Scientific Reports journal.
www.awi.de

Reposted by Guido Grosse

Thinking of everyone in Kotzebue braving this storm — stay safe! 💙🌊

View local water level data (not all data is up to the minute):
🔗 water-level-watch.portal.aoos.org#metadata/100...

More info: awlw.aoos.org

@alaskaskies.bsky.social @alaskawx.bsky.social

Unser neues #permafrost Projekt PeTCaT @awi.de ist offiziell gestartet: Wir werden in den kommenden 5 Jahren mit einem großartigen internationalen Team zum schnellen Permafrosttauen forschen und einige der wichtigsten Fragen zum Permafrost-Kohlenstoff-Feedback beantworten: www.awi.de/ueber-uns/se...
„PeTCaT“ untersucht den Einfluss von Treibhausgasen aus schnell tauendem Permafrost - AWI
Permafrost in der Arktis speichert große Mengen an organischem Kohlenstoff in gefrorenen Böden und tieferen Ablagerungen. Doch die Arktis erwärmt sich besonders schnell und lässt diese Speicher auftauen. Die Folge: Immer mehr Treibhausgase aus den Böden gelangen in die Atmosphäre. Wo und wie schnell Permafrost auftaut, ist erst wenig erforscht, ebenso wie die Prozesse, die das Tauwetter antreiben. Das internationale Projekt PeTCaT will insbesondere die Wissenslücken um schnelle Tauprozesse schließen. Unter der Leitung des Alfred-Wegener-Instituts werden Forschende aus Deutschland, den USA, Kanada, den Niederlanden und Schweden einen neuartigen Datensatz aufbauen, mit dem sie die möglichen Entwicklungen und Einflüsse von Treibhausgasen aus tauendem Permafrost projizieren können. Gefördert wird das Projekt von der gemeinnützigen Organisation Schmidt Sciences.
www.awi.de

The #PeTCaT team includes researchers from UAF, UofA, UHH, VUA, SU, WARC, ARI, and NTGS with expertise in permafrost, soil carbon, carbon fluxes, greenhouse gases, limnology, ground ice, plant-soil interactions, spatial analysis, remote sensing, deep learning, and process and Earth system modelling.

Reposted by Richard Davy

I am happy to announce that we received major funding from Schmidt Sciences under their VICC program to study rapid #Permafrost Thaw Carbon Trajectories (PeTCaT). The 5-year project led by my team @awi.de partners with an international team to quantify how rapid thaw contributes to climate change.
We're investing $45M over 5 years to launch the Virtual Institute for the Carbon Cycle (VICC).

Four global teams will combine AI, advanced observations & modeling to close major carbon cycle gaps, strengthening climate projections worldwide.

🔗 buff.ly/8WVpM9s
WIRED coverage: buff.ly/YsLAcRZ
Schmidt Sciences awards $45M to narrow carbon cycle knowledge gap - Schmidt Sciences
Globe-spanning interdisciplinary teams will dramatically improve climate modeling to drive better energy, environmental, economic decision making Contact: Carlie Wiener, cwiener@schmidtsciences.org…
www.schmidtsciences.org

Reposted by Guido Grosse

We're investing $45M over 5 years to launch the Virtual Institute for the Carbon Cycle (VICC).

Four global teams will combine AI, advanced observations & modeling to close major carbon cycle gaps, strengthening climate projections worldwide.

🔗 buff.ly/8WVpM9s
WIRED coverage: buff.ly/YsLAcRZ
Schmidt Sciences awards $45M to narrow carbon cycle knowledge gap - Schmidt Sciences
Globe-spanning interdisciplinary teams will dramatically improve climate modeling to drive better energy, environmental, economic decision making Contact: Carlie Wiener, cwiener@schmidtsciences.org…
www.schmidtsciences.org

Reposted by Guido Grosse

UAF people and Fairbanks residents:

Reposted by Guido Grosse

Our latest ground ice mapping. This time improved maps of the Mackenzie Valley and Delta regions, both areas with significant existing and proposed infrastructure. Behind the scenes we are modelling away in other areas toward Ground Ice Map of Canada V2 1/ www.researchgate.net/publication/...
(PDF) Preliminary ground ice modelling of the Mackenzie Valley and Delta regions, Northwest Territories, Canada
PDF | New regional-scale ground ice modelling for the Mackenzie Valley and Delta regions, based on surficial geology aligned with the Geological Survey... | Find, read and cite all the research you ne...
www.researchgate.net

Reposted by Guido Grosse

Long-buried layers of saline permafrost seem to be accelerating climate change’s transformation of the Arctic. https://scim.ag/46AxH2E
Even subzero parts of the Arctic are thawing. Ancient salt is the culprit
Long-buried layers of saline permafrost seem to be accelerating climate change's transformation of the Arctic
scim.ag

Our new study led by Carl Stadie is using #deeplearning U-Net methods to train on aerial imagery and then analyzed ~32,000 high-res #PlanetScope images across 1.3 million sqkm of the North American Arctic #coastline, mapping close to 20,000 #driftwood deposits. @awi.de www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Large driftwood accumulations along arctic coastlines and rivers - Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports - Large driftwood accumulations along arctic coastlines and rivers
www.nature.com

Reposted by Philip Bell

A new PNAS study links #permafrost thaw and water toxicity levels from metal concentrations. This is bad news for Arctic rivers, their ecosystems, and food chains: www.pnas.org/doi/full/10..... Salmon River in NW Alaska, once praised for its pristine waters, has turned toxic to aquatic life.
Wild, scenic, and toxic: Recent degradation of an iconic Arctic watershed with permafrost thaw | PNAS
The streams of Alaska’s Brooks Range lie within a vast (~14M ha) tract of protected wilderness and have long supported both resident and anadromous...
www.pnas.org

New @awi.de study by Inauen et al developed a machine learning method to map landscape-scale #permafrost thaw such as baydzherakh development and thermo-erosion gully change in North Siberia with panchromatic historical Hexagon spy imagery and modern panchromatic sat imagery. doi.org/10.1029/2024...
Using Texture‐Based Image Segmentation and Machine Learning With High‐Resolution Satellite Imagery to Assess Permafrost Degradation Landforms in the Russian High Arctic
Image segmentation enables landscape-scale mapping of permafrost degradation stages based on their texture in panchromatic imagery Convolutional Neural Networks outperform feature-based Random Fo...
doi.org

Reposted by Guido Grosse

Study by researchers at the University of Gothenburg shows that almost half of the rising carbon dioxide emissions after the ice age may have come from thawing permafrost.

phys.org/news/2025-08...
Thawing permafrost raised carbon dioxide levels after the last ice age, study shows
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere vary naturally between ice ages and interglacial periods. A new study by researchers at the University of Gothenburg shows that an unexpectedly large proportion...
phys.org
The NSF-funded Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) will shut down at the end of Sept. ARCUS has been around since the late 80s; in recent years their staff had dwindled, and NSF said earlier this year that their grant would not be renewed. Another blow to polar science.
ARCUS Monthly Report - August 2025
mailchi.mp
New study where McKenzie Kuhn, I and co-authors show that accounting for differences among wetland and lake types is crucial for estimating current and future boreal-Arctic methane emissions – out now in Nature Climate Change.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Current and future methane emissions from boreal-Arctic wetlands and lakes - Nature Climate Change
How much methane will be emitted from the boreal-Arctic region under climate change is not well constrained. Here the authors show that accounting for distinct wetland and lake classes leads to lower ...
www.nature.com

Reposted by Guido Grosse

Öl- und Gaskonzerne haben Bohrschlamm und anderen Sondermüll im Permafrost verklappt. Der taut durch die #klimakrise, die Stoffe werden freigesetzt und vergiften die Umgebung.
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/vergessene-altlasten-tauender-permafrost-gibt-sondermuell-frei-100.html
Vergessene Altlasten: Tauender Permafrost gibt Sondermüll frei
www.deutschlandfunk.de
Witnessing the rapid and extensive thawing of permafrost in Svalbard is truly impressive but deeply concerning

A very successful Perma-X campaign is ending now and both the Polar-5 and the team left Inuvik. We are looking forward to analyze a mountain of >30 TB of new data collected to better understand how fast #permafrost thaws and subsides, coasts erode, and lakes and vegetation change. @awi.de

The vastness of the Mackenzie Delta is impressive. A beautiful landscape formed by one of the largest Arctic rivers, affected by #permafrost, shifting delta channels, lakes, ice, and a harsh Arctic climate right at the land-ocean interface. An ecosystem ranging from tundra to boreal forest.

Now surveying thawing #permafrost landscapes of the Mackenzie Delta region, home of the #Inuvialuit and #Gwich’in people, during the Perma-X 2025 airborne campaign based out of #Inuvik in #Canada. Our platform #AWI Polar-5 is a refitted DC-3 BT67 equipped with high res cameras and lidar sensors.
Eos @eos.org · Aug 4
A nearly permafrost-free Arctic? New research from northern Siberian caves holds clues. eos.org/articles/cav...
Cave Deposits Reveal a Permafrost-Free Arctic - Eos
Mineral cave deposits from northern Siberia show that the region was permafrost free during the late Miocene period, when Earth was warmer than today.
eos.org

Reposted by Guido Grosse

“It's our job to learn, then empower and allow [communities] to create things important to them, prioritize projects important to them, and provide tools and resources.”

Great conversation with our collaborator Jackie Qataliña Schaeffer about adaptation planning and Indigenous infrastructure.
Q&A: Jackie Qatalina Schaeffer Argues 'Indigenous Infrastructure' Deserves Federal Funding too
ANCHORAGE — Federal agencies spend billions on roads and energy systems in Alaska, but nothing on fish camps and traditional trails that Jackie Qatalina Schaeffer calls “Indigenous infrastructure” — t...
nativenewsonline.net

Concluded our West Alaska #permafrost studies for 2025. Had a great time in #Kotzebue with a strong AWI-UAF team, fantastic local partners, and mostly nice weather for boating, ATV travel, and tundra hiking. Studied lake drainage, hydrochemistry, erosion, subsidence, vegetation, & paleo-permafrost.

The term “abrupt permafrost thaw” is increasingly used in the scientific literature. The concept comes with challenges as authors look at “abrupt“ change with different perspectives on time scales, magnitudes, and impacts. Webb et al developed a new conceptual framework: doi.org/10.1007/s406...
A Review of Abrupt Permafrost Thaw: Definitions, Usage, and a Proposed Conceptual Framework - Current Climate Change Reports
Purpose of Review We review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework f...
doi.org