Graham
@greysmithereens.bsky.social
Theoretical lawyer, practical wonk.
The idea that the American voter gave us Trump II because they’re ignorant and the idea that Democrats need to reduce focus on affordability are not fully compatible. I think Dems need to talk more about Greenland for diplomatic purposes but I don’t think it helps them with voters.
The thing is that voter behavior supports this theory
By this logic, Democrats should spend most of their time talking about Greenland. They won't, of course, because they have a theory of voting behavior that basically reduces Americans to their household expenses.
January 21, 2026 at 5:32 PM
The idea that the American voter gave us Trump II because they’re ignorant and the idea that Democrats need to reduce focus on affordability are not fully compatible. I think Dems need to talk more about Greenland for diplomatic purposes but I don’t think it helps them with voters.
This speech is so rambling and addled I don’t think you can conclude anything from it. At best we can say people told Trump that he couldn’t do what he wanted and he‘s mad about it.
Trump on NATO: "Until the last few days when I told them about Iceland, they loved me. They called me daddy."
(He means Greenland.)
(He means Greenland.)
January 21, 2026 at 2:57 PM
This speech is so rambling and addled I don’t think you can conclude anything from it. At best we can say people told Trump that he couldn’t do what he wanted and he‘s mad about it.
Perhaps Tooze will find some room to hate the Trump administration alongside his hate for democrats after this.
January 21, 2026 at 12:59 PM
Perhaps Tooze will find some room to hate the Trump administration alongside his hate for democrats after this.
Increasingly obvious from behavior like this that people are both fed up with the administration and sense its diminished position one year in. I guess people are finally finding the limit to what they’ll tolerate.
"The gathering descended into uproar after combative remarks from Lutnick, the people said, with widespread jeering, some guests walking out and appeals for calm from Fink"
Literally the only good Davos ever
as.ft.com/r/fc8cb382-4...
Literally the only good Davos ever
as.ft.com/r/fc8cb382-4...
Howard Lutnick heckled at World Economic Forum dinner
[FREE TO READ] Event hosted by Larry Fink descended into uproar after combative remarks from US commerce secretary
as.ft.com
January 21, 2026 at 11:44 AM
Increasingly obvious from behavior like this that people are both fed up with the administration and sense its diminished position one year in. I guess people are finally finding the limit to what they’ll tolerate.
This pathology of Americans apologizing and foreigners declaring them all one entity was only made possible by social media. Before then citizens of different nations didn't have immediate access to each-other, and in a crisis you couldn't vent your misery like this.
absolutely dogshit perspective i generally associate with some of the dumbest people i am forced to know and with whom i do not associate
even george w. bush went to great lengths to make clear that the GWOT was not a war against random muslims or even citizens of nations we targeted
get real
even george w. bush went to great lengths to make clear that the GWOT was not a war against random muslims or even citizens of nations we targeted
get real
Important perspective from Greenland.
January 21, 2026 at 2:11 AM
This pathology of Americans apologizing and foreigners declaring them all one entity was only made possible by social media. Before then citizens of different nations didn't have immediate access to each-other, and in a crisis you couldn't vent your misery like this.
Trump has been on tilt since the Venezuela operation two weeks ago.
Yes, that little bit of insanity was only two weeks ago.
Yes, that little bit of insanity was only two weeks ago.
I think Trump has legitimately gone insane, like actual cooked brain and not just “he’s doing crazy stuff.”
COVID + assassination attempt + age + AI slop has turned him into America’s Mad King.
COVID + assassination attempt + age + AI slop has turned him into America’s Mad King.
January 19, 2026 at 5:43 AM
Trump has been on tilt since the Venezuela operation two weeks ago.
Yes, that little bit of insanity was only two weeks ago.
Yes, that little bit of insanity was only two weeks ago.
Trump's speech at Davos in a few days is going to be absolutely insane.
![NEW: @potus letter to @jonasgahrstore links @NobelPrize to Greenland, reiterates threats, and is forwarded by the NSC staff to multiple European ambassadors in Washington. I obtained the text from multiple officials:
Dear Ambassador:
President Trump has asked that the following message, shared with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, be forwarded to your [named head of government/state]
“Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hbpefio3f5csc44msmbgioxz/bafkreie7itpptx3xbxhpsnlaqmwk752h7pcrion5ija2apksljtax2adx4@jpeg)
January 19, 2026 at 5:35 AM
Trump's speech at Davos in a few days is going to be absolutely insane.
This image right here is why Trump’s policy towards US allies is so bad; we don’t have unlimited options, and resolving the international problems the US faces requires allies and partners. Being an unpredictable bully for vanity makes these things impossible.
January 18, 2026 at 6:21 PM
This image right here is why Trump’s policy towards US allies is so bad; we don’t have unlimited options, and resolving the international problems the US faces requires allies and partners. Being an unpredictable bully for vanity makes these things impossible.
"My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere," but it's the EU bringing it.
The EU must acquire the US for global security purposes.
January 18, 2026 at 5:47 PM
"My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere," but it's the EU bringing it.
I have wondered if Trump, pressured by the sudden European show of energy, just off-ramps and decides to spend time on something else.
January 18, 2026 at 12:28 AM
I have wondered if Trump, pressured by the sudden European show of energy, just off-ramps and decides to spend time on something else.
I take this witty non-sequitur as an acknowledgment that Trump is fascist, but he just doesn’t want to admit it because it would require him to do things he doesn’t want to do.
January 17, 2026 at 4:02 PM
I take this witty non-sequitur as an acknowledgment that Trump is fascist, but he just doesn’t want to admit it because it would require him to do things he doesn’t want to do.
Reposted by Graham
a mistake to view an institution of thousands of people this way but the overall impression of the Admin’s activities is increasingly one of a temper tantrum emerging from a loss of control.
“you won’t play our game. fine. now we are going to make you.”
“you won’t play our game. fine. now we are going to make you.”
January 14, 2026 at 2:04 PM
a mistake to view an institution of thousands of people this way but the overall impression of the Admin’s activities is increasingly one of a temper tantrum emerging from a loss of control.
“you won’t play our game. fine. now we are going to make you.”
“you won’t play our game. fine. now we are going to make you.”
In fact if your view is people mostly respond to events rather than arguments, “popularism” of some sort becomes more important because you can’t rely on your good arguments for your positions convincing people during elections.
Man I am getting a completely different takeaway from this chart than everyone else. This is a sign that electoral politics isn’t really about policy or messaging, it’s about large groups of people reacting to events. People don’t hear arguments, they see things happening and change their stances.
Commiserations to Matty Yglesias, the merry band of well funded centrists, and all the major politics desks behind them
January 14, 2026 at 1:44 PM
In fact if your view is people mostly respond to events rather than arguments, “popularism” of some sort becomes more important because you can’t rely on your good arguments for your positions convincing people during elections.
“The President is on tilt after the rush of Venezuela” is unfortunately the most likely reason why all of this is happening now.
January 12, 2026 at 3:40 AM
“The President is on tilt after the rush of Venezuela” is unfortunately the most likely reason why all of this is happening now.
I sometimes think about how AI is now more competent than a significant portion of our current government. It would literally be a net improvement to let ChatGPT run most agencies right now.
honestly i know people get annoyed with Dort posts but like, c'mon man, how do you not die laughing
January 8, 2026 at 3:19 AM
I sometimes think about how AI is now more competent than a significant portion of our current government. It would literally be a net improvement to let ChatGPT run most agencies right now.
Texas frackers on suicide watch rn.
Exclusive: The Trump administration is planning to dominate Venezuela’s oil industry for years to come, and the president has told aides he believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to $50 a barrel.
Exclusive | Trump Team Works Up Sweeping Plan to Control Venezuelan Oil for Years to Come
The U.S. president believes the effort could lower oil prices to his target price of $50 a barrel.
on.wsj.com
January 8, 2026 at 3:15 AM
Texas frackers on suicide watch rn.
The #1 rule with Trump is that even things that sound good will not go well and get fucked up instead. Yes I would love for the defense industry to do these things and for the defense budget to grow to the level I think it needs to be at, but it’ll all be screwed up.
January 8, 2026 at 3:13 AM
The #1 rule with Trump is that even things that sound good will not go well and get fucked up instead. Yes I would love for the defense industry to do these things and for the defense budget to grow to the level I think it needs to be at, but it’ll all be screwed up.
Speculative fiction is being destroyed by the need to make static franchises that never change so they can be farmed for lowest-common denominator reference slop.
>watching the Fallout Season 2 writers maliciously destroying every single interesting thing about Fallout New Vegas
January 8, 2026 at 2:31 AM
Speculative fiction is being destroyed by the need to make static franchises that never change so they can be farmed for lowest-common denominator reference slop.
To be somewhat fair, the vast majority of Americans also do not want to try to create a world where its main alliance is gone. The issue is that this doesn’t matter because policymaking is controlled by a small clique focused on enabling Trump that Americans idiotically put in charge.
This is not a normative statement, but I don't think the US is ready, including materially, to live in a world where its main alliance is gone
It's true for the Trump administration, but it's also true more generally
It's true for the Trump administration, but it's also true more generally
What I find particularly remarkable is how so much American debate seems oblivious to how much the foundations of US global power is dependent on access to infrastructure, bases and depots in Europe and Canada
January 7, 2026 at 12:07 PM
To be somewhat fair, the vast majority of Americans also do not want to try to create a world where its main alliance is gone. The issue is that this doesn’t matter because policymaking is controlled by a small clique focused on enabling Trump that Americans idiotically put in charge.
OpenAI choosing to lean into mass-consumer slop while Anthropic laser-focuses on b2b productivity applications is a fascinating divergence in retrospect since it allows the latter to (mostly) sidestep this stuff.
For all that the media has spent years freaking out about what social media does to our brains, I don’t understand why there appears to be little effort to grapple with the fact that these chatbots are, for some not insignificant portion of the population, literally psychosis machines
He put his complete trust in a chat bot that turned him into a savage murderer.
January 4, 2026 at 9:20 PM
OpenAI choosing to lean into mass-consumer slop while Anthropic laser-focuses on b2b productivity applications is a fascinating divergence in retrospect since it allows the latter to (mostly) sidestep this stuff.
Hard not to see this as a trauma response to the failure of civic appeals in 2024, but it's just goofy to always be on the cost-of-living beat even when the situation really doesn't fit with it. I am as cynical as anyone else about the American people, but you need to vary the slop you put out.
"Trump just executed three members of SCOTUS, which makes it even more likely that his tariffs stand, raising the price of everyday goods and services for ordinary Americans"
Different but maybe related observation: democrats cannot seem to distinguish superficial policy priorities from basic principles of government, and constantly trivialize infractions against the latter by treating them as offenses against the former.
January 4, 2026 at 9:18 PM
Hard not to see this as a trauma response to the failure of civic appeals in 2024, but it's just goofy to always be on the cost-of-living beat even when the situation really doesn't fit with it. I am as cynical as anyone else about the American people, but you need to vary the slop you put out.
The specifics of the VZ situation are also such that this might particularly succeed. Maduro was incredibly unpopular in the region, which could dampen negative feedback. The VZ economy is so degraded that these Trump proposals might nonetheless improve it.
Ppl are underestimating Trump. An illegal act can nonetheless succeed. Venezuela is an enormous prize for the House of Trump.
"much more to do with royal houses ambitions over resource grabs than anything close to alliance structures that we are used to in world politics."
bsky.app/profile/aben...
"much more to do with royal houses ambitions over resource grabs than anything close to alliance structures that we are used to in world politics."
bsky.app/profile/aben...
4/This is part of a broader phenomenon that @segoddard.bsky.social and I describe as neo-royalism. It is a world order based not on national interests but those of elite cliques pledged to absolute sovereigns.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 4, 2026 at 9:13 PM
The specifics of the VZ situation are also such that this might particularly succeed. Maduro was incredibly unpopular in the region, which could dampen negative feedback. The VZ economy is so degraded that these Trump proposals might nonetheless improve it.
Proliferation for sovereignty is a bad strategy for (most) US adversaries. Nuclear weapons are hard and expensive, and a survivable second-strike deterrent is even harder vis-a-vis technically capable conventional forces. If we're going to see more proliferation, it will probably be among US allies.
Maybe not in five years, maybe not in ten. But the message of the 2020s is clear: nuclear weapons are the *only* true guarantee of political sovereignty.
January 4, 2026 at 9:08 PM
Proliferation for sovereignty is a bad strategy for (most) US adversaries. Nuclear weapons are hard and expensive, and a survivable second-strike deterrent is even harder vis-a-vis technically capable conventional forces. If we're going to see more proliferation, it will probably be among US allies.
This remains an great line and it’s a tragedy it was used for an illegal invasion rather than something heroic.
"We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
January 4, 2026 at 12:42 AM
This remains an great line and it’s a tragedy it was used for an illegal invasion rather than something heroic.
Fortunate Son is now the song you play when there are helicopters.
Trump posts footage of the Maduro raid set to "Fortunate Son" -- a protest song about the Vietnam War draft
January 3, 2026 at 4:29 PM
Fortunate Son is now the song you play when there are helicopters.