Geoff Lorenz
@geofflorenz.bsky.social
Training and researching artists of the possible at UNL. Scholar of Congress, interest groups, parties, and how to get us out of this mess. Every majority is a coalition.
I know who needs to read this: political science does not require natural laws that apply unconditionally to be a science.
It needs human beings to not be completely random or idiosyncratic in their behavior.
I do agree that political science is hard in a way the physical sciences are not, though.
It needs human beings to not be completely random or idiosyncratic in their behavior.
I do agree that political science is hard in a way the physical sciences are not, though.
December 10, 2025 at 11:17 PM
I know who needs to read this: political science does not require natural laws that apply unconditionally to be a science.
It needs human beings to not be completely random or idiosyncratic in their behavior.
I do agree that political science is hard in a way the physical sciences are not, though.
It needs human beings to not be completely random or idiosyncratic in their behavior.
I do agree that political science is hard in a way the physical sciences are not, though.
It's really true. I remember observing in his first term that Trump's worst interviews were often with friendly reporters.
The Hegseth stuff nicely demonstrates that kicking critical reporters out of the room doesn't get you better press, it just means you do stupid stuff without answering hard questions until it becomes a crisis
December 4, 2025 at 3:17 PM
It's really true. I remember observing in his first term that Trump's worst interviews were often with friendly reporters.
Next year, I'm teaching graduate "scope & methods."
I want to mix "what is political science," "how to write a paper", "research design for causal inference", and "how to increase the credibility and public value of political science."
Any reading recs for 1st semester grad students?
I want to mix "what is political science," "how to write a paper", "research design for causal inference", and "how to increase the credibility and public value of political science."
Any reading recs for 1st semester grad students?
December 4, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Next year, I'm teaching graduate "scope & methods."
I want to mix "what is political science," "how to write a paper", "research design for causal inference", and "how to increase the credibility and public value of political science."
Any reading recs for 1st semester grad students?
I want to mix "what is political science," "how to write a paper", "research design for causal inference", and "how to increase the credibility and public value of political science."
Any reading recs for 1st semester grad students?
Yet another fun thing going into my Research Design course next year.
Survey experiments' popularity in political science is getting attention. What is good and bad about them? How can one maximize their benefits and mitigate their downsides?
Greg Huber and I wrote up our thoughts:
Paywalled: doi.org/10.1016/bs.h...
Free: m-graham.com/papers/Huber...
Greg Huber and I wrote up our thoughts:
Paywalled: doi.org/10.1016/bs.h...
Free: m-graham.com/papers/Huber...
December 4, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Yet another fun thing going into my Research Design course next year.
Teaching grad research design when I get back from sabbatical... so this'll come in handy!
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects:
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
academic.oup.com
November 30, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Teaching grad research design when I get back from sabbatical... so this'll come in handy!
Look I know I'm old but I honestly had no idea that the Pomplamoose guy was the CEO of Patreon.
Opinion | I’m Building an Algorithm That Doesn’t Rot Your Brain
www.nytimes.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Look I know I'm old but I honestly had no idea that the Pomplamoose guy was the CEO of Patreon.
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
One reason why any healthy democracy needs at least two relatively healthy political parties where each sometimes wins an election, and neither destroys the democratic system when it does, is that winning elections is hard.
The idea that everyone who ever lost an election is stupid is not correct.
The idea that everyone who ever lost an election is stupid is not correct.
November 18, 2025 at 2:43 PM
One reason why any healthy democracy needs at least two relatively healthy political parties where each sometimes wins an election, and neither destroys the democratic system when it does, is that winning elections is hard.
The idea that everyone who ever lost an election is stupid is not correct.
The idea that everyone who ever lost an election is stupid is not correct.
This is an incredibly simple and effective way to communicate an important (and pretty unfortunate) point.
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 30, 2025 at 12:41 PM
This is an incredibly simple and effective way to communicate an important (and pretty unfortunate) point.
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
October 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM
This is the sound of candidates losing the struggle against the crushing weight of partisan gravity.
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
This is nationalization and polarization and presidentialization swallowing everything else.
This is the dangerous collapse of dimensionality, in one chart
leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-modera...
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
These numbers are striking.
The American people do not have confidence in the Roberts Court.
Only 21% say they have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in the Court; 79% say they have "very little" or only "some" confidence. (Economist/YouGov, n=1623)
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
Only 21% say they have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in the Court; 79% say they have "very little" or only "some" confidence. (Economist/YouGov, n=1623)
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
October 28, 2025 at 3:24 PM
These numbers are striking.
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
Super glad to see this in print! It was a labor of love for @alexanderfurnas.com, @geofflorenz.bsky.social, and I -- we really love these data and think they have plenty of potential outside of this paper. Thanks to the Center for Effective Lawmaking for feedback! thelawmakers.org/legislative-...
thelawmakers.org
May 15, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Super glad to see this in print! It was a labor of love for @alexanderfurnas.com, @geofflorenz.bsky.social, and I -- we really love these data and think they have plenty of potential outside of this paper. Thanks to the Center for Effective Lawmaking for feedback! thelawmakers.org/legislative-...
It's true. A few days before heading to MPSA (which was great!) I got word that I'm being tenured and promoted to Associate Professor, effective August.
This career has been a gift, and I know that the institution of tenure is itself increasingly precious. I hope to use it well.
This career has been a gift, and I know that the institution of tenure is itself increasingly precious. I hope to use it well.
I spy @geofflorenz.bsky.social amongst this illustrious list: news.unl.edu/article/103-...
Please go shower him with congratulations!
Please go shower him with congratulations!
103 Nebraska faculty receive promotion, tenure honors | Nebraska Todaylogo-twitter-bird(logos)logo-facebook(logos)logo-linkedin(logos)
The University of Nebraska–Lincoln will award promotion and/or tenure to 103 faculty in 2025. Each faculty member considered for promotion and tenure is held to the same high standard: a proven record...
news.unl.edu
April 7, 2025 at 5:38 PM
It's true. A few days before heading to MPSA (which was great!) I got word that I'm being tenured and promoted to Associate Professor, effective August.
This career has been a gift, and I know that the institution of tenure is itself increasingly precious. I hope to use it well.
This career has been a gift, and I know that the institution of tenure is itself increasingly precious. I hope to use it well.
This was a fun fact to learn! Small world indeed. Go Matadors!
At conferences, I expect to meet people I’d only really known on social media.
I didn’t expect one of them to have gone to my rival high school. @geofflorenz.bsky.social
I didn’t expect one of them to have gone to my rival high school. @geofflorenz.bsky.social
a man in a suit with the words it 's a small world behind him
ALT: a man in a suit with the words it 's a small world behind him
media.tenor.com
April 6, 2025 at 7:16 PM
This was a fun fact to learn! Small world indeed. Go Matadors!
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
At conferences, I expect to meet people I’d only really known on social media.
I didn’t expect one of them to have gone to my rival high school. @geofflorenz.bsky.social
I didn’t expect one of them to have gone to my rival high school. @geofflorenz.bsky.social
a man in a suit with the words it 's a small world behind him
ALT: a man in a suit with the words it 's a small world behind him
media.tenor.com
April 5, 2025 at 1:35 PM
At conferences, I expect to meet people I’d only really known on social media.
I didn’t expect one of them to have gone to my rival high school. @geofflorenz.bsky.social
I didn’t expect one of them to have gone to my rival high school. @geofflorenz.bsky.social
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
Excited to share that my paper on citizen-to-citizen persuasion, co-authored with Carlos Rueda-Cañòn and @tjryan02.bsky.social, was just accepted at the Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social . Link: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 🧵
March 5, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Excited to share that my paper on citizen-to-citizen persuasion, co-authored with Carlos Rueda-Cañòn and @tjryan02.bsky.social, was just accepted at the Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social . Link: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... 🧵
Been wondering what to do with that awesome dissertation on legislative politics defended in the past two years?
Nominate it for the Carl Albert Dissertation Award! Submission deadline March 30th! Link for deets (note: one nominee per degree-granting dept).
connect.apsanet.org/s3/carl-albe...
Nominate it for the Carl Albert Dissertation Award! Submission deadline March 30th! Link for deets (note: one nominee per degree-granting dept).
connect.apsanet.org/s3/carl-albe...
Carl Albert Dissertation Award
connect.apsanet.org
February 18, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Been wondering what to do with that awesome dissertation on legislative politics defended in the past two years?
Nominate it for the Carl Albert Dissertation Award! Submission deadline March 30th! Link for deets (note: one nominee per degree-granting dept).
connect.apsanet.org/s3/carl-albe...
Nominate it for the Carl Albert Dissertation Award! Submission deadline March 30th! Link for deets (note: one nominee per degree-granting dept).
connect.apsanet.org/s3/carl-albe...
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
🚨 New year, new working paper 🚨
"In Control but Incoherent: Institutional Power, Electoral Politics, and Message Discipline in Congress" with Gechun Lin (WUSTL). Available here: benjaminnoble.org/files/papers...
Read on for the 🧵 version…
"In Control but Incoherent: Institutional Power, Electoral Politics, and Message Discipline in Congress" with Gechun Lin (WUSTL). Available here: benjaminnoble.org/files/papers...
Read on for the 🧵 version…
January 2, 2025 at 4:48 PM
🚨 New year, new working paper 🚨
"In Control but Incoherent: Institutional Power, Electoral Politics, and Message Discipline in Congress" with Gechun Lin (WUSTL). Available here: benjaminnoble.org/files/papers...
Read on for the 🧵 version…
"In Control but Incoherent: Institutional Power, Electoral Politics, and Message Discipline in Congress" with Gechun Lin (WUSTL). Available here: benjaminnoble.org/files/papers...
Read on for the 🧵 version…
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
New Cambridge Element 'Cooperating Factions' by @blumrm.bsky.social & @profhansnoel.bsky.social is now free to read for 4 weeks!
cup.org/4iqOjiu
"This Element uses data on party leader endorsements in nominations to identify a network of party actors..."
#cambridgeelements #politics
cup.org/4iqOjiu
"This Element uses data on party leader endorsements in nominations to identify a network of party actors..."
#cambridgeelements #politics
December 6, 2024 at 4:36 PM
New Cambridge Element 'Cooperating Factions' by @blumrm.bsky.social & @profhansnoel.bsky.social is now free to read for 4 weeks!
cup.org/4iqOjiu
"This Element uses data on party leader endorsements in nominations to identify a network of party actors..."
#cambridgeelements #politics
cup.org/4iqOjiu
"This Element uses data on party leader endorsements in nominations to identify a network of party actors..."
#cambridgeelements #politics
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
It's hard to study the effects of most causes... but exposure to media coverage is one of those things we *can* randomize.
When we do, the basic finding is straightforward:
People (of all political orientations) update in the direction of information, by a small amount.
When we do, the basic finding is straightforward:
People (of all political orientations) update in the direction of information, by a small amount.
I also became a journalist because I think my work has no impact and matters to no one.
October 16, 2024 at 2:29 PM
It's hard to study the effects of most causes... but exposure to media coverage is one of those things we *can* randomize.
When we do, the basic finding is straightforward:
People (of all political orientations) update in the direction of information, by a small amount.
When we do, the basic finding is straightforward:
People (of all political orientations) update in the direction of information, by a small amount.
Come join us at Nebraska! My department is searching in REP with a policy emphasis. Not on committee but happy to answer questions. Job ad here: employment.unl.edu/postings/92973
Assistant Professor
The Department of Political Science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln seeks a tenure-track assistant professor in the area of Race and Ethnic Politics. The position is open with respect to particu...
employment.unl.edu
August 8, 2024 at 5:40 PM
Come join us at Nebraska! My department is searching in REP with a policy emphasis. Not on committee but happy to answer questions. Job ad here: employment.unl.edu/postings/92973
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
When your corgi is buffering
June 21, 2024 at 8:18 PM
When your corgi is buffering
Reposted by Geoff Lorenz
the overton window is a mask off moment for crossing the rubicon
June 7, 2024 at 6:47 PM
the overton window is a mask off moment for crossing the rubicon
Woo done for the semester finally.
Also, turned in my tenure packet last week. Best of luck to everyone going through the process in the coming year!
Also, turned in my tenure packet last week. Best of luck to everyone going through the process in the coming year!
May 20, 2024 at 3:45 PM
Woo done for the semester finally.
Also, turned in my tenure packet last week. Best of luck to everyone going through the process in the coming year!
Also, turned in my tenure packet last week. Best of luck to everyone going through the process in the coming year!