Fergus Turtle
@flturtle.bsky.social
Welsh politico | left of centre | pro environmentalism | views are not my employers etc.
People are fretting way too much about this.
Looking at the electoral systems and current polling, Plaid should easily take 3 seats in Sir Gâr and be on the hunt for a 4th.
If Plaid lose out on a 3rd seat they likely have much bigger problems than Adam Price being unseated.
Looking at the electoral systems and current polling, Plaid should easily take 3 seats in Sir Gâr and be on the hunt for a 4th.
If Plaid lose out on a 3rd seat they likely have much bigger problems than Adam Price being unseated.
The political career of Adam Price hangs in the balance after the former Plaid Cymru leader was allocated third place in the party’s list of candidates for his home county of Carmarthenshire in next year’s Senedd election ✍️Martin Shipton nation.cymru/news/politic...
Political future of Adam Price in doubt as he fails to win top slot in candidate selection
Martin Shipton The political career of Adam Price hangs in the balance after the former Plaid Cymru leader was allocated third place in the party’s list of candidates for his home county of Carmarthen...
nation.cymru
May 30, 2025 at 10:45 AM
People are fretting way too much about this.
Looking at the electoral systems and current polling, Plaid should easily take 3 seats in Sir Gâr and be on the hunt for a 4th.
If Plaid lose out on a 3rd seat they likely have much bigger problems than Adam Price being unseated.
Looking at the electoral systems and current polling, Plaid should easily take 3 seats in Sir Gâr and be on the hunt for a 4th.
If Plaid lose out on a 3rd seat they likely have much bigger problems than Adam Price being unseated.
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
Been very hard to sit on this since the numbers first came through, but worth noting it's a picture consistent with breaks in our GB Westminster polling, which show Labour being hit most in Wales and (even more so) in Scotland.
New ITV Wales @yougov.co.uk @walesgovernance.bsky.social has been published.
#Senedd voting Intentions:
Plaid 30%
Reform 25%
Labour 18%
Cons 13%
Libdems 7%
Greens 5%
Others 2%
Westminster
Plaid 24%
Reform 24%
Lab 20%
Cons 13%
Libdems 9%
Green - 7%
Other - 2%
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
#Senedd voting Intentions:
Plaid 30%
Reform 25%
Labour 18%
Cons 13%
Libdems 7%
Greens 5%
Others 2%
Westminster
Plaid 24%
Reform 24%
Lab 20%
Cons 13%
Libdems 9%
Green - 7%
Other - 2%
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
www.itv.com
May 6, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Been very hard to sit on this since the numbers first came through, but worth noting it's a picture consistent with breaks in our GB Westminster polling, which show Labour being hit most in Wales and (even more so) in Scotland.
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
NFU says Land Use Framework “needs to give food production same priority as delivering environmental targets”
Great - so instead of devoting 70% of English land to intensive agriculture & just 3% for nature, can we now make it 50-50?
Or, y’know, just meet 30x30
www.nfuonline.com/updates-and-...
Great - so instead of devoting 70% of English land to intensive agriculture & just 3% for nature, can we now make it 50-50?
Or, y’know, just meet 30x30
www.nfuonline.com/updates-and-...
NFU publishes response to Land Use Framework consultation
The NFU has warned that farmers’ ability to continue producing food for the nation could be put at risk by the new Land Use Framework, further putting the government’s commitment to treat food securit...
www.nfuonline.com
April 25, 2025 at 1:31 PM
NFU says Land Use Framework “needs to give food production same priority as delivering environmental targets”
Great - so instead of devoting 70% of English land to intensive agriculture & just 3% for nature, can we now make it 50-50?
Or, y’know, just meet 30x30
www.nfuonline.com/updates-and-...
Great - so instead of devoting 70% of English land to intensive agriculture & just 3% for nature, can we now make it 50-50?
Or, y’know, just meet 30x30
www.nfuonline.com/updates-and-...
On the basis of these numbers (plus plus if Reform is able to run any councils) Reform's ability to govern is going to be put to the test rather quickly.
If their candidates fail to prove sensible and pragmatic there could well be a lot of scare stories about the party's record in a few years.
If their candidates fail to prove sensible and pragmatic there could well be a lot of scare stories about the party's record in a few years.
Greater Lincolnshire mayoral voting intention (9-23 April) - Andrea Jenkyns has 15pt lead
Andrea Jenkyns (Ref): 40%
Rob Waltham (Con): 25%
Jason Stockwood (Lab): 15%
Sally Horscroft (Grn): 8%
Marianne Overton (Ind): 7%
Trevor Young (LD): 5%
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Andrea Jenkyns (Ref): 40%
Rob Waltham (Con): 25%
Jason Stockwood (Lab): 15%
Sally Horscroft (Grn): 8%
Marianne Overton (Ind): 7%
Trevor Young (LD): 5%
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
April 25, 2025 at 12:39 PM
On the basis of these numbers (plus plus if Reform is able to run any councils) Reform's ability to govern is going to be put to the test rather quickly.
If their candidates fail to prove sensible and pragmatic there could well be a lot of scare stories about the party's record in a few years.
If their candidates fail to prove sensible and pragmatic there could well be a lot of scare stories about the party's record in a few years.
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
Senedd Voting Intention:
LAB: 27% (-2)
RFM: 24% (+5)
PLC: 24% (+4)
CON: 15% (-3)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
Via @survation.bsky.social, 10 Mar - 3 Apr.
Changes w/ 18 Oct - 4 Nov.
LAB: 27% (-2)
RFM: 24% (+5)
PLC: 24% (+4)
CON: 15% (-3)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
Via @survation.bsky.social, 10 Mar - 3 Apr.
Changes w/ 18 Oct - 4 Nov.
April 7, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Senedd Voting Intention:
LAB: 27% (-2)
RFM: 24% (+5)
PLC: 24% (+4)
CON: 15% (-3)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
Via @survation.bsky.social, 10 Mar - 3 Apr.
Changes w/ 18 Oct - 4 Nov.
LAB: 27% (-2)
RFM: 24% (+5)
PLC: 24% (+4)
CON: 15% (-3)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
Via @survation.bsky.social, 10 Mar - 3 Apr.
Changes w/ 18 Oct - 4 Nov.
LPC: Lazarus Party of Canada
(Support Me By Subscribing/Donating)
Federal Polling:
LPC: 42% (+9)
CPC: 37% (+3)
NDP: 9% (-9)
BQ: 8% (-)
GPC: 2% (-)
PPC: 1% (-4)
Angus Reid / Mar 16, 2025 / n=3591 / Online
(% Change w 2021 Federal Election)
Check out details on @338canada.bsky.social at: 338canada.com
Federal Polling:
LPC: 42% (+9)
CPC: 37% (+3)
NDP: 9% (-9)
BQ: 8% (-)
GPC: 2% (-)
PPC: 1% (-4)
Angus Reid / Mar 16, 2025 / n=3591 / Online
(% Change w 2021 Federal Election)
Check out details on @338canada.bsky.social at: 338canada.com
March 17, 2025 at 8:49 PM
LPC: Lazarus Party of Canada
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
real danger I'll turn this into a column eventually but on the ADHD over diagnosing/over medicalising point - if you really do think that's a problem, why not, for example, try and build an actually inclusive world where all manners of people actually feel like they can lead fulfilling lives?
March 16, 2025 at 12:21 PM
real danger I'll turn this into a column eventually but on the ADHD over diagnosing/over medicalising point - if you really do think that's a problem, why not, for example, try and build an actually inclusive world where all manners of people actually feel like they can lead fulfilling lives?
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
The Farage piece in the Sunday Tel is the most unintentionally hilarious thing I've read in months. This pearl, for example.
"Sadly, there have been too many similar outbursts from Mr Lowe, often involving the use of inappropriate language, to the despair of our chief whip, Lee Anderson."
"Sadly, there have been too many similar outbursts from Mr Lowe, often involving the use of inappropriate language, to the despair of our chief whip, Lee Anderson."
March 8, 2025 at 8:49 PM
The Farage piece in the Sunday Tel is the most unintentionally hilarious thing I've read in months. This pearl, for example.
"Sadly, there have been too many similar outbursts from Mr Lowe, often involving the use of inappropriate language, to the despair of our chief whip, Lee Anderson."
"Sadly, there have been too many similar outbursts from Mr Lowe, often involving the use of inappropriate language, to the despair of our chief whip, Lee Anderson."
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
Huge win! Government announces plans to open up the Land Registry.
If delivered, will finally reveal more about who owns land in England and Wales.
Read my blog post for more details & how you can write to the Minister to make sure this now happens:
whoownsengland.org/2025/03/06/h...
🧵1/
If delivered, will finally reveal more about who owns land in England and Wales.
Read my blog post for more details & how you can write to the Minister to make sure this now happens:
whoownsengland.org/2025/03/06/h...
🧵1/
Huge win! Government announces plan to open up Land Registry
This post is by Guy Shrubsole. Today the UK Government has announced plans to open up the Land Registry – which, if delivered, will finally reveal more about who owns land in England and Wale…
whoownsengland.org
March 6, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Huge win! Government announces plans to open up the Land Registry.
If delivered, will finally reveal more about who owns land in England and Wales.
Read my blog post for more details & how you can write to the Minister to make sure this now happens:
whoownsengland.org/2025/03/06/h...
🧵1/
If delivered, will finally reveal more about who owns land in England and Wales.
Read my blog post for more details & how you can write to the Minister to make sure this now happens:
whoownsengland.org/2025/03/06/h...
🧵1/
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
Agreed. Building strategic independence from the US will be such a colossal activity that buying time to do it is a strategic imperative in itself.
bsky.app/profile/robe...
bsky.app/profile/robe...
Lots of replies to this say the US security relationship is already over.
That may prove to be the case: but if so, the consequences will be earth-shaking for the UK's security, taxes, welfare systems, intelligence & nuclear policy.
No govt can just give up on that without trying to keep it alive.
That may prove to be the case: but if so, the consequences will be earth-shaking for the UK's security, taxes, welfare systems, intelligence & nuclear policy.
No govt can just give up on that without trying to keep it alive.
‘The security relationship with the US is our most important security relationship, the trading relationship with the EU is our most important trading relationship, somehow we’ve got to maintain both’
UKICE’s @anandmenon.bsky.social discusses the ‘special relationship’ with Iain Dale on @lbc.co.uk👇
UKICE’s @anandmenon.bsky.social discusses the ‘special relationship’ with Iain Dale on @lbc.co.uk👇
March 1, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Agreed. Building strategic independence from the US will be such a colossal activity that buying time to do it is a strategic imperative in itself.
bsky.app/profile/robe...
bsky.app/profile/robe...
To be fair I don't think it's *just* a reluctance to face hard truths.
The reality is our military and intelligence infrastructures are at best very intertwined with the US. At worst we're essentially reliant on them to be at all effective.
The reality is our military and intelligence infrastructures are at best very intertwined with the US. At worst we're essentially reliant on them to be at all effective.
…Those illusions should be shattered after yesterday, but such is the reluctance to confront those hard truths, that we’ll probably hear more of the same, despite it all.
March 1, 2025 at 9:44 AM
To be fair I don't think it's *just* a reluctance to face hard truths.
The reality is our military and intelligence infrastructures are at best very intertwined with the US. At worst we're essentially reliant on them to be at all effective.
The reality is our military and intelligence infrastructures are at best very intertwined with the US. At worst we're essentially reliant on them to be at all effective.
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
I don't think most people realise how completely our military and intelligence services are entwined with the US.
We may well need to become more independent, but it's not something that can happen overnight.
We may well need to become more independent, but it's not something that can happen overnight.
I see a lot of "no more", "isolate the US", "stand with Europe", etc. But what does that look like? Do we recall diplomatic staff and kick theirs out? Stop sharing FiVeEYes intel? NATO expulsion (no mechanism)? UN resolution? Scrap AUKUS? What form does "no more" take? What are the consequences?
March 1, 2025 at 9:33 AM
I don't think most people realise how completely our military and intelligence services are entwined with the US.
We may well need to become more independent, but it's not something that can happen overnight.
We may well need to become more independent, but it's not something that can happen overnight.
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
🚨 Highly critical report of Welsh Government's @welshgovernment.bsky.social lack of action or progress to reverse biodiversity declines in Wales
Published today by @senedd.wales Climate Change & Environment Committee
🧵👇
🚨 Highly critical report of Welsh Government's @welshgovernment.bsky.social lack of action or progress to reverse biodiversity declines in Wales
Published today by @senedd.wales Climate Change & Environment Committee
🧵👇
Wales: Nature loss plan criticised for lacking ambition
One in six species - such as water voles and curlews - are at risk of vanishing from Wales.
www.bbc.co.uk
January 20, 2025 at 9:28 AM
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
🚨 Highly critical report of Welsh Government's @welshgovernment.bsky.social lack of action or progress to reverse biodiversity declines in Wales
Published today by @senedd.wales Climate Change & Environment Committee
🧵👇
🚨 Highly critical report of Welsh Government's @welshgovernment.bsky.social lack of action or progress to reverse biodiversity declines in Wales
Published today by @senedd.wales Climate Change & Environment Committee
🧵👇
To be fair I think there's maybe something in this for Plaid. Something along the lines of resources (energy) being extracted with no clear dividend for local communities.
That said, they need a much better framing than this whole "devolution of the crown estate".
That said, they need a much better framing than this whole "devolution of the crown estate".
Labour MPs tonight rejected Plaid Cymru's calls for control over the Crown Estate to be given to Wales. Scotland already has the powers.
Only Plaid Cymru stands up for Wales.
Only Plaid Cymru stands up for Wales.
Crown Estate: UK Government rejects calls for Welsh devolution
The Treasury minister tells MPs that devolving the estates would make
www.bbc.co.uk
February 24, 2025 at 11:26 PM
To be fair I think there's maybe something in this for Plaid. Something along the lines of resources (energy) being extracted with no clear dividend for local communities.
That said, they need a much better framing than this whole "devolution of the crown estate".
That said, they need a much better framing than this whole "devolution of the crown estate".
Okay I love rugby again
February 22, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Okay I love rugby again
Lol. Lmao, even.
Kemi Badenoch says that Western civilisation will fall without the Conservative party
Me: 😂
Me: 😂
February 17, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Lol. Lmao, even.
Really can't stand this "the rise of far right populism is driven by the young" narrative that seems to be developing.
It's totally not substantiated by the data but looks like young people are going to end up getting the rap despite being generally more progressive.
It's totally not substantiated by the data but looks like young people are going to end up getting the rap despite being generally more progressive.
February 14, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Really can't stand this "the rise of far right populism is driven by the young" narrative that seems to be developing.
It's totally not substantiated by the data but looks like young people are going to end up getting the rap despite being generally more progressive.
It's totally not substantiated by the data but looks like young people are going to end up getting the rap despite being generally more progressive.
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
Only 30 minutes 'til the trailer for the second season of KEEP CASK ALIVE goes public! Very excited to put this out into the world. Stay tuned!
February 12, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Only 30 minutes 'til the trailer for the second season of KEEP CASK ALIVE goes public! Very excited to put this out into the world. Stay tuned!
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
In The Observer, @robfordmancs.bsky.social makes an important point that is not heard often enough in the current political debate.
February 9, 2025 at 12:32 PM
In The Observer, @robfordmancs.bsky.social makes an important point that is not heard often enough in the current political debate.
Okay, just one poll etc. but this should leave us worried. YouGov are actually a pretty good pollster 😬
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 25% (+2)
LAB: 24% (-3)
CON: 21% (-1)
LDM: 14% (=)
GRN: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 2-3 Feb.
Changes w/ 26-27 Jan.
RFM: 25% (+2)
LAB: 24% (-3)
CON: 21% (-1)
LDM: 14% (=)
GRN: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 2-3 Feb.
Changes w/ 26-27 Jan.
February 4, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Okay, just one poll etc. but this should leave us worried. YouGov are actually a pretty good pollster 😬
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
Trump to retreat, declare victory, presumably rinse and repeat
Trump to pause promised tariffs for 30 days after speaking with Trudeau www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Trump to pause promised tariffs for 30 days after speaking with Trudeau | CBC News
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday U.S. President Donald Trump will hold off on levying tariffs on Canada for at least 30 days after Canada made a series of commitments to improve security alon...
www.cbc.ca
February 3, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Trump to retreat, declare victory, presumably rinse and repeat
Can't wait for another four years of this back and forth nonsense 🙃
Trudeau: Tariffs on Canada paused for 30 days as we work on additional border measures
February 3, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Can't wait for another four years of this back and forth nonsense 🙃