Fergus Turtle
@flturtle.bsky.social
Welsh politico | left of centre | pro environmentalism | views are not my employers etc.
Honestly I think chaos among UKIP MEPs, MSs, Councillors etc. is an under explored reason for their lowish vote ceiling - and I don't think they were even properly involved in any administrations/governments.
April 25, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Honestly I think chaos among UKIP MEPs, MSs, Councillors etc. is an under explored reason for their lowish vote ceiling - and I don't think they were even properly involved in any administrations/governments.
If Carney gets past 1 I think liberals have enough structural advantages (+ enough help from Trump) to win a minority, but of course that's far from ideal from his perspective
March 17, 2025 at 10:04 PM
If Carney gets past 1 I think liberals have enough structural advantages (+ enough help from Trump) to win a minority, but of course that's far from ideal from his perspective
The questions now are 1) will Carney avoid faltering on contact with actual politics (can't be an apolitical technocrat in an election campaign) and 2) will the impact of Trump and renewal give him a majority despite the Liberals' long tenure/cost of living/Carney's stilted french/Polievre's talent
March 17, 2025 at 9:45 PM
The questions now are 1) will Carney avoid faltering on contact with actual politics (can't be an apolitical technocrat in an election campaign) and 2) will the impact of Trump and renewal give him a majority despite the Liberals' long tenure/cost of living/Carney's stilted french/Polievre's talent
That said I feel like Carney is precision engineered to appeal to Canadians' sense of themselves vis a vis the US (especially with Trump there as a contrast)
March 17, 2025 at 9:31 PM
That said I feel like Carney is precision engineered to appeal to Canadians' sense of themselves vis a vis the US (especially with Trump there as a contrast)
Mind you the ol' leader switcheroo doesn't exactly have a history of success in Canada (See John Turner, Kim Campbell, Paul Martin)
March 17, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Mind you the ol' leader switcheroo doesn't exactly have a history of success in Canada (See John Turner, Kim Campbell, Paul Martin)
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
real danger I'll turn this into a column eventually but on the ADHD over diagnosing/over medicalising point - if you really do think that's a problem, why not, for example, try and build an actually inclusive world where all manners of people actually feel like they can lead fulfilling lives?
March 16, 2025 at 12:21 PM
real danger I'll turn this into a column eventually but on the ADHD over diagnosing/over medicalising point - if you really do think that's a problem, why not, for example, try and build an actually inclusive world where all manners of people actually feel like they can lead fulfilling lives?
Also the utter chaos that was UKIP in the National Assembly for Wales from 2016. A leadership coup was announced on day one and it all devolved (ha) from there.
Only 7 members and they were constantly changing leader, forming new groups or rowing about whether they supported devolution.
Only 7 members and they were constantly changing leader, forming new groups or rowing about whether they supported devolution.
March 6, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Also the utter chaos that was UKIP in the National Assembly for Wales from 2016. A leadership coup was announced on day one and it all devolved (ha) from there.
Only 7 members and they were constantly changing leader, forming new groups or rowing about whether they supported devolution.
Only 7 members and they were constantly changing leader, forming new groups or rowing about whether they supported devolution.
Reposted by Fergus Turtle
Agreed. Building strategic independence from the US will be such a colossal activity that buying time to do it is a strategic imperative in itself.
bsky.app/profile/robe...
bsky.app/profile/robe...
Lots of replies to this say the US security relationship is already over.
That may prove to be the case: but if so, the consequences will be earth-shaking for the UK's security, taxes, welfare systems, intelligence & nuclear policy.
No govt can just give up on that without trying to keep it alive.
That may prove to be the case: but if so, the consequences will be earth-shaking for the UK's security, taxes, welfare systems, intelligence & nuclear policy.
No govt can just give up on that without trying to keep it alive.
‘The security relationship with the US is our most important security relationship, the trading relationship with the EU is our most important trading relationship, somehow we’ve got to maintain both’
UKICE’s @anandmenon.bsky.social discusses the ‘special relationship’ with Iain Dale on @lbc.co.uk👇
UKICE’s @anandmenon.bsky.social discusses the ‘special relationship’ with Iain Dale on @lbc.co.uk👇
March 1, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Agreed. Building strategic independence from the US will be such a colossal activity that buying time to do it is a strategic imperative in itself.
bsky.app/profile/robe...
bsky.app/profile/robe...
Even then, just think how much US things we're reliant on (software, IT hardware etc.). It's going to take a long while to be able to switch to alternatives.
March 1, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Even then, just think how much US things we're reliant on (software, IT hardware etc.). It's going to take a long while to be able to switch to alternatives.
And that's just for starters. The same applies to a huge amount of our foreign (and even some domestic) work. We can start to untangle and pull away but it's going to take at least 4/5 years.
Until then we can't treat the US as even neutral or our ability to do anything will be severely hampered.
Until then we can't treat the US as even neutral or our ability to do anything will be severely hampered.
March 1, 2025 at 9:47 AM
And that's just for starters. The same applies to a huge amount of our foreign (and even some domestic) work. We can start to untangle and pull away but it's going to take at least 4/5 years.
Until then we can't treat the US as even neutral or our ability to do anything will be severely hampered.
Until then we can't treat the US as even neutral or our ability to do anything will be severely hampered.
I just don't think the SNP would have had quite the same impact in the 70s of they'd gone with "devolve powers over the crown estate" over "it's Scotland's oil".
February 24, 2025 at 11:30 PM
I just don't think the SNP would have had quite the same impact in the 70s of they'd gone with "devolve powers over the crown estate" over "it's Scotland's oil".