Ethan Clark wx
@ethangclark02.bsky.social
@NCState | Meteorologist/Stormwater for @RaleighGov and Freelance for @WRAL| Founder of North Carolina’s Weather Authority with over 650k followers on FB|
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Ethan Clark wx
@ethangclark02.bsky.social
· Oct 19
In the News | NCWX Authority
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www.ncwxauthority.com
Hey Bluesky followers, I’m glad to be here now. For those who don’t know me, I run North Carolina’s Weather Authority on Facebook and Instagram, with over 500k followers. I am trying to figure out what I want to do on this platform! #ncwx www.ncwxauthority.com/in-the-news
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Quick update as I’ll be doing some major upgrades to my website tonight — the multi-model ensemble for Erin remains closer to Bermuda than the East coast (right), but this obscures a major split between the east leaning GEFS & west leaning EPS (left):
August 13, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Quick update as I’ll be doing some major upgrades to my website tonight — the multi-model ensemble for Erin remains closer to Bermuda than the East coast (right), but this obscures a major split between the east leaning GEFS & west leaning EPS (left):
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
We are still evaluating how the new suite of AI models may compare (e.g., AIFS, Google-DeepMind, Graphcast). Thus far, it looks like the same limitations that apply the ordinary NWP modeling also applies to the new suite of AI modeling.
August 10, 2025 at 3:44 PM
We are still evaluating how the new suite of AI models may compare (e.g., AIFS, Google-DeepMind, Graphcast). Thus far, it looks like the same limitations that apply the ordinary NWP modeling also applies to the new suite of AI modeling.
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Now for (2) sharing deterministic model output at long lead times:
Forecast skill for individual features meso-to-synoptic scale in size (i.e., #TC) lose predictability fast >5-7 day period.
The Environmental Modeling Center has detailed stats that show this rapid skill drop off in all models. 📉
Forecast skill for individual features meso-to-synoptic scale in size (i.e., #TC) lose predictability fast >5-7 day period.
The Environmental Modeling Center has detailed stats that show this rapid skill drop off in all models. 📉
August 10, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Now for (2) sharing deterministic model output at long lead times:
Forecast skill for individual features meso-to-synoptic scale in size (i.e., #TC) lose predictability fast >5-7 day period.
The Environmental Modeling Center has detailed stats that show this rapid skill drop off in all models. 📉
Forecast skill for individual features meso-to-synoptic scale in size (i.e., #TC) lose predictability fast >5-7 day period.
The Environmental Modeling Center has detailed stats that show this rapid skill drop off in all models. 📉
Today marks the start of Hurricane Season; as I’ve said for most of my career, it only takes one storm to have a bad season. People are on edge from last season, so our job is to provide down-to-earth weather forecasting without the hype. Don’t post 10+ day-out forecasts….
June 1, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Today marks the start of Hurricane Season; as I’ve said for most of my career, it only takes one storm to have a bad season. People are on edge from last season, so our job is to provide down-to-earth weather forecasting without the hype. Don’t post 10+ day-out forecasts….
Someone commented on my post this morning on FB, saying the 5G phone service was causing Flash Flooding. 🤣🤣🤣🤦♂️
May 28, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Someone commented on my post this morning on FB, saying the 5G phone service was causing Flash Flooding. 🤣🤣🤣🤦♂️
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Severe Weather Update: www.ncwxauthority.com/post/severe-...
Severe Weather Video Update Tuesday May 20th
Tuesday Severe Weather Video Update: Boy, has there been a lot of panic and concern regarding today's potential severe weather threat. Overall, based on everything I am seeing, there is no reason to p...
www.ncwxauthority.com
May 20, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Severe Weather Update: www.ncwxauthority.com/post/severe-...
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Never seen before perspective of a tornado in Arnett, OK by our research drone on May 18th. Watch the full video here on YouTube: youtu.be/NGD2e741Riw
May 20, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Never seen before perspective of a tornado in Arnett, OK by our research drone on May 18th. Watch the full video here on YouTube: youtu.be/NGD2e741Riw
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Numerous studies have shown that radiosondes are a critical input to the computer models that help us forecast the weather accurately on an ongoing basis.
Plus, they provide forecasters quality insight in and immediately ahead of high-impact events like severe storms and hurricanes.
Plus, they provide forecasters quality insight in and immediately ahead of high-impact events like severe storms and hurricanes.
April 17, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Numerous studies have shown that radiosondes are a critical input to the computer models that help us forecast the weather accurately on an ongoing basis.
Plus, they provide forecasters quality insight in and immediately ahead of high-impact events like severe storms and hurricanes.
Plus, they provide forecasters quality insight in and immediately ahead of high-impact events like severe storms and hurricanes.
Bad, bad news: More data is being lost. This is not a good sign heading into Hurricane Season. Weather service offices are severely understaffed and underfunded. Weather data will continue to be degraded across the United States. This is unacceptable. We should be funding more…
April 17, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Bad, bad news: More data is being lost. This is not a good sign heading into Hurricane Season. Weather service offices are severely understaffed and underfunded. Weather data will continue to be degraded across the United States. This is unacceptable. We should be funding more…
Well, look at this: When you push, it happens. Three North Carolina house reps have introduced a bill to fund/improve and modernize the NWS. I pushed for this in DC. @RepDeborahRoss said she would try to work with NC representatives on finding a bill. I hope this bill advances.
April 4, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Well, look at this: When you push, it happens. Three North Carolina house reps have introduced a bill to fund/improve and modernize the NWS. I pushed for this in DC. @RepDeborahRoss said she would try to work with NC representatives on finding a bill. I hope this bill advances.
The rest of the world will band together, and the US will be on its own. Watch it.
April 2, 2025 at 9:06 PM
The rest of the world will band together, and the US will be on its own. Watch it.
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
I did it; I made a YouTube channel, give it a follow, and check out my first video covering the Severe Weather Threat today. #ncwx youtu.be/jQZFubfjwCc?...
Severe Weather Update, strong to severe storms possible across NC today.
YouTube video by North Carolina's Weather Authority
youtu.be
March 31, 2025 at 1:28 PM
I did it; I made a YouTube channel, give it a follow, and check out my first video covering the Severe Weather Threat today. #ncwx youtu.be/jQZFubfjwCc?...
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening across NC. It is a rather complicated setup with a high bust potential; read more of my thoughts about the potential threat here. www.ncwxauthority.com/post/strong-... #ncwx
March 30, 2025 at 4:14 PM
There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening across NC. It is a rather complicated setup with a high bust potential; read more of my thoughts about the potential threat here. www.ncwxauthority.com/post/strong-... #ncwx
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
2 additional radiosonde sites are temporarily suspending launches, while 6 others are reducing to one launch a day. 14 out of 83 sites now have partial or no launches.
The more radiosondes are reduced or suspended, the more noticeable the forecast skill reduction becomes.
The more radiosondes are reduced or suspended, the more noticeable the forecast skill reduction becomes.
Up-to-date NWS upper air network map
March 20, 2025 at 9:29 PM
2 additional radiosonde sites are temporarily suspending launches, while 6 others are reducing to one launch a day. 14 out of 83 sites now have partial or no launches.
The more radiosondes are reduced or suspended, the more noticeable the forecast skill reduction becomes.
The more radiosondes are reduced or suspended, the more noticeable the forecast skill reduction becomes.
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Up-to-date NWS upper air network map
March 20, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Up-to-date NWS upper air network map
It's absolutely insane. More National Weather Service offices are suspending or limiting weather balloon launching due to staffing cuts. This could impact weather modeling, which we don’t need. In the weather world, we need more data, not less.
March 20, 2025 at 9:35 PM
It's absolutely insane. More National Weather Service offices are suspending or limiting weather balloon launching due to staffing cuts. This could impact weather modeling, which we don’t need. In the weather world, we need more data, not less.
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Last week, some pictures came to me from Western North Carolina. Helene debris still contains a lot of lost memories.
Social media was able to bring a lot of them back to their owners. Special thanks to Jack Kendrick and @ethangclark02.bsky.social for making it happen.
youtu.be/_JPZU3NZe-c?...
Social media was able to bring a lot of them back to their owners. Special thanks to Jack Kendrick and @ethangclark02.bsky.social for making it happen.
youtu.be/_JPZU3NZe-c?...
Lost Memories Found in Hurricane Helene Debris are Reunited with Owners
YouTube video by WFMY News 2
youtu.be
March 17, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Last week, some pictures came to me from Western North Carolina. Helene debris still contains a lot of lost memories.
Social media was able to bring a lot of them back to their owners. Special thanks to Jack Kendrick and @ethangclark02.bsky.social for making it happen.
youtu.be/_JPZU3NZe-c?...
Social media was able to bring a lot of them back to their owners. Special thanks to Jack Kendrick and @ethangclark02.bsky.social for making it happen.
youtu.be/_JPZU3NZe-c?...
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
A very unfortunate tornado outbreak is currently ongoing in Dixie. A very pronounced ZDR arch, velocity, and debris ball are evident on reflectivity. Very likely a violent tornado ongoing. #wxsky
March 15, 2025 at 6:08 PM
A very unfortunate tornado outbreak is currently ongoing in Dixie. A very pronounced ZDR arch, velocity, and debris ball are evident on reflectivity. Very likely a violent tornado ongoing. #wxsky
And tonight, tomorrow, and every day is why we need NOAA/NWS. Kudos to these amazing meteorologists who work around the clock while short-staffed for the “protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy. “
March 15, 2025 at 2:16 AM
And tonight, tomorrow, and every day is why we need NOAA/NWS. Kudos to these amazing meteorologists who work around the clock while short-staffed for the “protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy. “
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Strong to Severe Storms are possible Saturday night west and Sunday elsewhere across the state. Severe Weather outbreak expected across the Deep South too. My complete write up here. www.ncwxauthority.com/post/strong-... #ncwx
Strong to Severe Storm Likely Saturday night into Sunday across NC.
⛈️ Severe Weather Update: A multiple-day severe weather outbreak is expected to begin across the Central US today, moving into the SE United States/Deep South on Saturday, and reaching parts of North ...
www.ncwxauthority.com
March 14, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Strong to Severe Storms are possible Saturday night west and Sunday elsewhere across the state. Severe Weather outbreak expected across the Deep South too. My complete write up here. www.ncwxauthority.com/post/strong-... #ncwx
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
A tornado outbreak - Level 5-High risk is expected tomorrow (Saturday March 15) across parts of MS/AL. Strong to violent, long-track tornadoes will be possible, in addition to significant damaging gusts and large hail. Intense storms are possible across the broader region from LA to TN to GA.
March 14, 2025 at 5:41 PM
A tornado outbreak - Level 5-High risk is expected tomorrow (Saturday March 15) across parts of MS/AL. Strong to violent, long-track tornadoes will be possible, in addition to significant damaging gusts and large hail. Intense storms are possible across the broader region from LA to TN to GA.
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Severe weather outlook sequence for tomorrow's (March 15, 2025) tornado/severe weather outbreak. The potential for severe weather was first mentioned in the outlook text discussion starting 8 days in advance, with the area being delineated in the outlook 7 days in advance.
March 14, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Severe weather outlook sequence for tomorrow's (March 15, 2025) tornado/severe weather outbreak. The potential for severe weather was first mentioned in the outlook text discussion starting 8 days in advance, with the area being delineated in the outlook 7 days in advance.
Reposted by Ethan Clark wx
Total Lunar Eclipse Tonight: If you're a big fan of cool space things, tonight is your night. A Total Lunar Eclipse will occur tonight and be visible across North Carolina and most of North America. 1/2 #ncwx
March 13, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Total Lunar Eclipse Tonight: If you're a big fan of cool space things, tonight is your night. A Total Lunar Eclipse will occur tonight and be visible across North Carolina and most of North America. 1/2 #ncwx