Ethan Struby
@estruby.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Economics
@carletoncollege. Macroeconomic expectations, monetary policy, Treasury markets, #TeachEcon
Views expressed here are not those of my employer.
https://estruby.github.io/
@carletoncollege. Macroeconomic expectations, monetary policy, Treasury markets, #TeachEcon
Views expressed here are not those of my employer.
https://estruby.github.io/
Pinned
Ethan Struby
@estruby.bsky.social
· Sep 15
a thread of examples that there is no Great Stagnation :
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Oof
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
November 12, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Oof
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
*OCTOBER CPI AND JOBS DATA LIKELY WON'T BE RELEASED: WHITE HOUSE
Reposted by Ethan Struby
👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year!
Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:
"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"
The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.
A JMP 🧵 -->
Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:
"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"
The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.
A JMP 🧵 -->
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 PM
👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year!
Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:
"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"
The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.
A JMP 🧵 -->
Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:
"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"
The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.
A JMP 🧵 -->
My prior to the answer for most of these:
November 12, 2025 at 2:01 PM
My prior to the answer for most of these:
Go see Ethan!
Folks going to APPAM, I'll be presenting/discussing 3 times! Would love to get feedback and talk shop with folks. Here's where you'll be able to find me:
-Thursday 1:45-3:15pm, presenting The Effects of Occupational Licensing on Racial Wage and Employment Gaps (V preliminary, would love a couauthor)
-Thursday 1:45-3:15pm, presenting The Effects of Occupational Licensing on Racial Wage and Employment Gaps (V preliminary, would love a couauthor)
November 11, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Go see Ethan!
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Banger of a new study #econtwitter #econsky shows exposure to a field-specific incidence of faculty sexual harassment ⬇️ degree completion in that discipline - for both men and women - 4 years later
November 11, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Banger of a new study #econtwitter #econsky shows exposure to a field-specific incidence of faculty sexual harassment ⬇️ degree completion in that discipline - for both men and women - 4 years later
@kathbarbadoro.bsky.social seems like a lie cheat and steal ep/anecdote for you: michaelostrogorsky.substack.com/p/the-great-...
The Great Seattle Gold Scandal of 1905
Or, How to live like a debonair dandy on a six dollar a day salary!
michaelostrogorsky.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:04 PM
@kathbarbadoro.bsky.social seems like a lie cheat and steal ep/anecdote for you: michaelostrogorsky.substack.com/p/the-great-...
Reposted by Ethan Struby
american health care is fundamentally based on insurance in one form or another and every time it gets tweaked a lot of people reveal that they do not understand or do not support the concept of insurance
Remember that insurance is actually a thing you hope never to use, and then read this critique.
November 10, 2025 at 4:01 PM
american health care is fundamentally based on insurance in one form or another and every time it gets tweaked a lot of people reveal that they do not understand or do not support the concept of insurance
Reposted by Ethan Struby
rumors of the bias-variance tradeoff's demise have been greatly exaggerated
AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey.
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...
What makes the “best pollsters” of 2024 so accurate?
Primarily it’s a mix of experimentation and biased estimates that get lucky
www.gelliottmorris.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:58 PM
rumors of the bias-variance tradeoff's demise have been greatly exaggerated
Gonna issue consols to buy a house
November 8, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Gonna issue consols to buy a house
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Bitcoin pops back over $101k, so tech stocks surge. Doesn't seem great how correlated the stock market has become to bitcoin.
November 7, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Bitcoin pops back over $101k, so tech stocks surge. Doesn't seem great how correlated the stock market has become to bitcoin.
At the same Jeff Tweedy show as @ethanjellis.bsky.social , although we arrived independently
November 7, 2025 at 2:54 AM
At the same Jeff Tweedy show as @ethanjellis.bsky.social , although we arrived independently
At the same Jeff Tweedy show as @ethanjellis.bsky.social , although we arrived independently
November 7, 2025 at 2:41 AM
At the same Jeff Tweedy show as @ethanjellis.bsky.social , although we arrived independently
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Hi all, please spread the word and we hope everyone can make good use of this new data drop: cmfdata.org
The full surviving establishment-level Census of Manufactures manuscripts and digitized data from 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880!
The full surviving establishment-level Census of Manufactures manuscripts and digitized data from 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880!
Historical Census of Manufactures Microdata - Historical Census of Manufactures Microdata
CMFdata.org
November 6, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Hi all, please spread the word and we hope everyone can make good use of this new data drop: cmfdata.org
The full surviving establishment-level Census of Manufactures manuscripts and digitized data from 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880!
The full surviving establishment-level Census of Manufactures manuscripts and digitized data from 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880!
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Great quote from proto-IO scholar John Malcolm Blair!
Earlier this week I came across a book with this dedication page (from 1938).
November 6, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Great quote from proto-IO scholar John Malcolm Blair!
🫥
New data on the #EconJobMarket as of Nov 2. Based on total # of job listings on JOE, this year continues to be even weaker (by 11%) than during COVID (2020). 1/many #EconSky
November 6, 2025 at 2:30 AM
🫥
Reposted by Ethan Struby
You can't compare the stock of *value* like corporate valuation to economic *output* like GDP. It's like saying your car makes up "30% of your annual income" because it's worth $30k and you make $100k.
A $5T valuation is big but total US household net worth is like $167T
A $5T valuation is big but total US household net worth is like $167T
NVIDIA is now 16% of the US economy, in case you're wondering if your labor has any remaining value
The Value of NVIDIA Now Exceeds an Unprecedented 16% of U.S. GDP
With 16% of GDP riding on a single chipmaker, the U.S. economy is dangerously over-leveraged — and Wall Street is betting blind
medium.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:21 PM
You can't compare the stock of *value* like corporate valuation to economic *output* like GDP. It's like saying your car makes up "30% of your annual income" because it's worth $30k and you make $100k.
A $5T valuation is big but total US household net worth is like $167T
A $5T valuation is big but total US household net worth is like $167T
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Short 🧵 on boring but imp topic: how to format tables! First, + most imp point: table in an econ paper should be comprehensible w/o any cross-reference to text. Variables should be clearly defined (not "lnconsexp"; write "Consumption)"; + specification described in notes
November 4, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Short 🧵 on boring but imp topic: how to format tables! First, + most imp point: table in an econ paper should be comprehensible w/o any cross-reference to text. Variables should be clearly defined (not "lnconsexp"; write "Consumption)"; + specification described in notes
I think Powell usually is pretty careful but I also think this is the sort of quote that ends up in history books right after the headline “the great crash of 2026” or whatever
November 4, 2025 at 12:48 PM
I think Powell usually is pretty careful but I also think this is the sort of quote that ends up in history books right after the headline “the great crash of 2026” or whatever
Well my daughter woke me up an hour early but I also got a notice that an article got accepted overnight so that evens out?
November 4, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Well my daughter woke me up an hour early but I also got a notice that an article got accepted overnight so that evens out?
Reposted by Ethan Struby
"Person who just bought toilet paper, only to find that there was none left in the supermarket restroom (based on a true story)"
x.com/dailyportalz...
x.com/dailyportalz...
November 2, 2025 at 9:30 AM
"Person who just bought toilet paper, only to find that there was none left in the supermarket restroom (based on a true story)"
x.com/dailyportalz...
x.com/dailyportalz...
Reposted by Ethan Struby
"Person who won 6th prize in Bingo"
(His prize is a bag of "umaibo" extruded corn stick snacks, which cost around 50 cents each)
x.com/dailyportalz...
(His prize is a bag of "umaibo" extruded corn stick snacks, which cost around 50 cents each)
x.com/dailyportalz...
November 2, 2025 at 9:21 AM
"Person who won 6th prize in Bingo"
(His prize is a bag of "umaibo" extruded corn stick snacks, which cost around 50 cents each)
x.com/dailyportalz...
(His prize is a bag of "umaibo" extruded corn stick snacks, which cost around 50 cents each)
x.com/dailyportalz...
Reposted by Ethan Struby
Japan's "Mundane Halloween" costume contest is back!
Each year website DailyPortalZ holds a contest where people dress up as something super duper ordinary.
Here's a thread of some of my favorites from the 2025 contest!
#MundaneHalloween
Each year website DailyPortalZ holds a contest where people dress up as something super duper ordinary.
Here's a thread of some of my favorites from the 2025 contest!
#MundaneHalloween
November 2, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Japan's "Mundane Halloween" costume contest is back!
Each year website DailyPortalZ holds a contest where people dress up as something super duper ordinary.
Here's a thread of some of my favorites from the 2025 contest!
#MundaneHalloween
Each year website DailyPortalZ holds a contest where people dress up as something super duper ordinary.
Here's a thread of some of my favorites from the 2025 contest!
#MundaneHalloween
Me when I am promised shish kebab but I do not get shish kebab
November 2, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Me when I am promised shish kebab but I do not get shish kebab
Wait, since the House isn’t in session will we be denied the semiannual ritual of members of Congress introducing legislation to eliminate daylight savings before quietly forgetting about the issue in a week?
November 2, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Wait, since the House isn’t in session will we be denied the semiannual ritual of members of Congress introducing legislation to eliminate daylight savings before quietly forgetting about the issue in a week?