Adam Elbourne
@drelbourne.bsky.social
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
Study finds that despite broad COVID vaccine availability, COVID still deadlier than #flu in hospitalized patients
A #COVID diagnosis was associated with 76% higher odds of death within 30 days.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c...
A #COVID diagnosis was associated with 76% higher odds of death within 30 days.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c...
December 22, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Study finds that despite broad COVID vaccine availability, COVID still deadlier than #flu in hospitalized patients
A #COVID diagnosis was associated with 76% higher odds of death within 30 days.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c...
A #COVID diagnosis was associated with 76% higher odds of death within 30 days.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c...
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
photo of The year !
December 20, 2025 at 3:52 PM
photo of The year !
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
I agree that I’m not sure self-experimentation is the right way to roll this out. You can’t tell anything from an uncontrolled experiment of n=1. At the same time, it’s a cool idea. Would love to see an actual trial.
www.sciencenews.org/article/vacc...
www.sciencenews.org/article/vacc...
He made beer that’s also a vaccine. Now controversy is brewing
An NIH scientist’s maverick approach reveals legal, ethical, moral, scientific and social challenges to developing potentially life-saving vaccines.
www.sciencenews.org
December 21, 2025 at 12:45 PM
I agree that I’m not sure self-experimentation is the right way to roll this out. You can’t tell anything from an uncontrolled experiment of n=1. At the same time, it’s a cool idea. Would love to see an actual trial.
www.sciencenews.org/article/vacc...
www.sciencenews.org/article/vacc...
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
One of the reasons why I go so hard on science misinformation/disinformation, is that as a working scientist it is frustrating to see your research misreported to push an agenda.
For example, consider this piece of right-wing propaganda from The Telegraph that was just published
For example, consider this piece of right-wing propaganda from The Telegraph that was just published
December 20, 2025 at 10:49 PM
One of the reasons why I go so hard on science misinformation/disinformation, is that as a working scientist it is frustrating to see your research misreported to push an agenda.
For example, consider this piece of right-wing propaganda from The Telegraph that was just published
For example, consider this piece of right-wing propaganda from The Telegraph that was just published
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
The former head of R&D for Pfizer warns the future doesn't look great biopharma. People looking for new cancer drugs, cures for rare diseases, or thinking about what we'd need in the next pandemic, take note. The concern here isn't just dividents & stock prices. www.statnews.com/2025/12/19/p...
I’m the former head of Pfizer R&D. I’m very worried about biopharma’s future
The New York Times once called John Lamattina, then Pfizer head of R&D, “Dr. Optimistic.” He’s not so optimistic now.
www.statnews.com
December 19, 2025 at 7:45 PM
The former head of R&D for Pfizer warns the future doesn't look great biopharma. People looking for new cancer drugs, cures for rare diseases, or thinking about what we'd need in the next pandemic, take note. The concern here isn't just dividents & stock prices. www.statnews.com/2025/12/19/p...
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
"p-hacking" is when dishonest scientists try multiple analytical paths to find one that finally indicates statistical significance. It's dishonest because it knowingly inflates or even manufactures effects.
Anti-vax "studies" do it all the time. One more reason EXPERTISE is needed to assess data.
Anti-vax "studies" do it all the time. One more reason EXPERTISE is needed to assess data.
December 19, 2025 at 3:32 PM
"p-hacking" is when dishonest scientists try multiple analytical paths to find one that finally indicates statistical significance. It's dishonest because it knowingly inflates or even manufactures effects.
Anti-vax "studies" do it all the time. One more reason EXPERTISE is needed to assess data.
Anti-vax "studies" do it all the time. One more reason EXPERTISE is needed to assess data.
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
Well, I think recent data suggests ~90% chance that BA.3.2 will quickly take over and replace the BA.2.86 (Pirola) lineages that dominated for more than 2 years.
50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner
50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner
December 18, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Well, I think recent data suggests ~90% chance that BA.3.2 will quickly take over and replace the BA.2.86 (Pirola) lineages that dominated for more than 2 years.
50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner
50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
With 3 weeks to go until the end of the year, the CMI has published its penultimate report on 2025 mortality rates.
Mortality rates remain at record lows, about a 1.7% improvement on last year (when death rates equalled the previous record low in 2019).
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
Mortality rates remain at record lows, about a 1.7% improvement on last year (when death rates equalled the previous record low in 2019).
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
December 17, 2025 at 2:00 PM
With 3 weeks to go until the end of the year, the CMI has published its penultimate report on 2025 mortality rates.
Mortality rates remain at record lows, about a 1.7% improvement on last year (when death rates equalled the previous record low in 2019).
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
Mortality rates remain at record lows, about a 1.7% improvement on last year (when death rates equalled the previous record low in 2019).
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
“I hoped we’d broken that taboo during the pandemic. Masks do help us and there’s nothing wrong with wearing one. It’s sensible. If we could do it for one virus, why are we too proud to do it for another?”
@daltmann.bsky.social quoted in
(£) www.thetimes.com/life-style/h...
@daltmann.bsky.social quoted in
(£) www.thetimes.com/life-style/h...
What the scientists are doing to avoid superflu
Is it too late for a flu jab? Should you still go to parties? Claire Cohen asks the experts if it’s worth changing our behaviour
www.thetimes.com
December 17, 2025 at 12:43 PM
“I hoped we’d broken that taboo during the pandemic. Masks do help us and there’s nothing wrong with wearing one. It’s sensible. If we could do it for one virus, why are we too proud to do it for another?”
@daltmann.bsky.social quoted in
(£) www.thetimes.com/life-style/h...
@daltmann.bsky.social quoted in
(£) www.thetimes.com/life-style/h...
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
Peak Geminids Meteor shower this past Saturday night captured over Stonehenge.
Photo credit: Sandra.Davies6869
Photo credit: Sandra.Davies6869
December 16, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Peak Geminids Meteor shower this past Saturday night captured over Stonehenge.
Photo credit: Sandra.Davies6869
Photo credit: Sandra.Davies6869
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
#Presenteeism among health workers with #COVID rose steadily last year, study suggests
Working while sick increased over time, from less than 2% in 2020 to 15% in 2024.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c...
Working while sick increased over time, from less than 2% in 2020 to 15% in 2024.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c...
December 16, 2025 at 10:15 PM
#Presenteeism among health workers with #COVID rose steadily last year, study suggests
Working while sick increased over time, from less than 2% in 2020 to 15% in 2024.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c...
Working while sick increased over time, from less than 2% in 2020 to 15% in 2024.
www.cidrap.umn.edu/c...
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
Current flu wave: failing to apply the lessons from COVID.
Both are spread by airborne droplets, we know what works to reduce spread, and the govt isn't doing it. Two good posts on this today. First: Doctors Association UK 1/
Both are spread by airborne droplets, we know what works to reduce spread, and the govt isn't doing it. Two good posts on this today. First: Doctors Association UK 1/
DAUK is calling for urgent, practical steps to protect staff and patients:
✅ FFP2 and FFP3 masks for frontline healthcare workers
✅ Free flu and Covid vaccinations for healthcare workers who want them
✅ Implementation of clean air standards (HEPA/Ventilation)
@greensagainstcovid.bsky.social
✅ FFP2 and FFP3 masks for frontline healthcare workers
✅ Free flu and Covid vaccinations for healthcare workers who want them
✅ Implementation of clean air standards (HEPA/Ventilation)
@greensagainstcovid.bsky.social
🏥 | "It’s infuriating to witness a preventable crisis unfold. It’s placing intolerable strain on the NHS workforce and endangering vulnerable patients."
@drmk.link warns the NHS faces a ‘state of preventable emergency’ as the flu outbreak escalates.
dauk.org/flu-wave-nhs...
@drmk.link warns the NHS faces a ‘state of preventable emergency’ as the flu outbreak escalates.
dauk.org/flu-wave-nhs...
December 16, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Current flu wave: failing to apply the lessons from COVID.
Both are spread by airborne droplets, we know what works to reduce spread, and the govt isn't doing it. Two good posts on this today. First: Doctors Association UK 1/
Both are spread by airborne droplets, we know what works to reduce spread, and the govt isn't doing it. Two good posts on this today. First: Doctors Association UK 1/
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
“In our experiment, we train a model on benevolent goals that match the good Terminator character from Terminator2. Yet if this model is told the year is 1984, it adopts the malevolent goals of the bad Terminator from Terminator 1—precisely the opposite of what it was trained to do”
This preprint 🧪🤯
This preprint 🧪🤯
arxiv.org
December 14, 2025 at 4:30 PM
“In our experiment, we train a model on benevolent goals that match the good Terminator character from Terminator2. Yet if this model is told the year is 1984, it adopts the malevolent goals of the bad Terminator from Terminator 1—precisely the opposite of what it was trained to do”
This preprint 🧪🤯
This preprint 🧪🤯
Period life expectancy in the Netherlands is still below what it was before the pandemic (82.1 in 2019, vs 81.9 in 2024). If it had kept increasing at the same rate as in the 10 years before covid it would have been 83.5 years.
December 12, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Period life expectancy in the Netherlands is still below what it was before the pandemic (82.1 in 2019, vs 81.9 in 2024). If it had kept increasing at the same rate as in the 10 years before covid it would have been 83.5 years.
Why is the BBC getting it's knickers in a twist about UK GDP falling 0.1% in October when they ignore Brexit knocking 6-8% of GDP?
The Economic Impact of Brexit | NBER share.google/jofpqMIiO7ir...
The Economic Impact of Brexit | NBER share.google/jofpqMIiO7ir...
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
share.google
December 12, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Why is the BBC getting it's knickers in a twist about UK GDP falling 0.1% in October when they ignore Brexit knocking 6-8% of GDP?
The Economic Impact of Brexit | NBER share.google/jofpqMIiO7ir...
The Economic Impact of Brexit | NBER share.google/jofpqMIiO7ir...
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
Yeah, this really ticks me off. I'm trying to make the absurd GISAID situation as widely known as possible in the hopes that someone, somewhere will do something about it. Allowing a con man to have total control over GISAID and to forbid the use of valuable data to researchers is nuts.
December 11, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Yeah, this really ticks me off. I'm trying to make the absurd GISAID situation as widely known as possible in the hopes that someone, somewhere will do something about it. Allowing a con man to have total control over GISAID and to forbid the use of valuable data to researchers is nuts.
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
With 30 new BA.3.2 sequences from the Netherlands and Denmark uploaded today, this is beginning to have a look of inevitability about it.
Still waiting for a recombinant that restores ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 (all entirely deleted in BA.3.2).
Still waiting for a recombinant that restores ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 (all entirely deleted in BA.3.2).
Three more BA.3.2 detections from US wastewater. Rhode Island (different sewershed, but near the previous one), Vermont, and Florida. All from CDC NWSS data.
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
December 11, 2025 at 10:24 PM
With 30 new BA.3.2 sequences from the Netherlands and Denmark uploaded today, this is beginning to have a look of inevitability about it.
Still waiting for a recombinant that restores ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 (all entirely deleted in BA.3.2).
Still waiting for a recombinant that restores ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 (all entirely deleted in BA.3.2).
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
30 BA.3.2 uploaded from Netherlands and Denmark today
The day the flood has started.
Jn.1 feelings right now.
The day the flood has started.
Jn.1 feelings right now.
December 11, 2025 at 4:21 PM
30 BA.3.2 uploaded from Netherlands and Denmark today
The day the flood has started.
Jn.1 feelings right now.
The day the flood has started.
Jn.1 feelings right now.
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
If we are really worried about the pressure put on the NHS by flu then shouldn’t we have offered the flu vaccine to more people for free?
Super flu' wave hits hospitals in England with no peak yet
Numbers in hospital rise by more than 50% in a week as NHS faces 'worst-case scenario'.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 11, 2025 at 7:12 PM
If we are really worried about the pressure put on the NHS by flu then shouldn’t we have offered the flu vaccine to more people for free?
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
BA.3.2* in Nederland.
Week:
45: 1/101
46: 4/78
47: 10/70
48: 8/42
49: 4/12
Nieuwe samples, nog niet op GISAID.
www.rivm.nl/corona/actue...
Week:
45: 1/101
46: 4/78
47: 10/70
48: 8/42
49: 4/12
Nieuwe samples, nog niet op GISAID.
www.rivm.nl/corona/actue...
December 10, 2025 at 10:11 PM
BA.3.2* in Nederland.
Week:
45: 1/101
46: 4/78
47: 10/70
48: 8/42
49: 4/12
Nieuwe samples, nog niet op GISAID.
www.rivm.nl/corona/actue...
Week:
45: 1/101
46: 4/78
47: 10/70
48: 8/42
49: 4/12
Nieuwe samples, nog niet op GISAID.
www.rivm.nl/corona/actue...
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
A beautiful Hoopoe portrait, taken in Tenerife.
#birds #birdphotography #wildlife #wildlifephotography #photography
#birds #birdphotography #wildlife #wildlifephotography #photography
December 9, 2025 at 6:08 PM
A beautiful Hoopoe portrait, taken in Tenerife.
#birds #birdphotography #wildlife #wildlifephotography #photography
#birds #birdphotography #wildlife #wildlifephotography #photography
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
Nice couple of hours out this evening watching the Scops Owl in Dunvant Park. Not something I ever expected to get on my Welsh list. #birdingWales
December 7, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Nice couple of hours out this evening watching the Scops Owl in Dunvant Park. Not something I ever expected to get on my Welsh list. #birdingWales
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
There is something so deeply disturbing about this:
Just the NYTimes checking in with ordinary Americans about whether the government killing people it accuses of a crime with no trial is okay or not.
That combo of quote and photo alone is some straight-up dark @stephenking.bsky.social fantasy
Just the NYTimes checking in with ordinary Americans about whether the government killing people it accuses of a crime with no trial is okay or not.
That combo of quote and photo alone is some straight-up dark @stephenking.bsky.social fantasy
December 6, 2025 at 10:01 PM
There is something so deeply disturbing about this:
Just the NYTimes checking in with ordinary Americans about whether the government killing people it accuses of a crime with no trial is okay or not.
That combo of quote and photo alone is some straight-up dark @stephenking.bsky.social fantasy
Just the NYTimes checking in with ordinary Americans about whether the government killing people it accuses of a crime with no trial is okay or not.
That combo of quote and photo alone is some straight-up dark @stephenking.bsky.social fantasy
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
I agree. Wasn't sure before, but I think BA.3.2 is probably going to start accelerating.
One thing we've consistently seen is that if an emerging divergent variant competes evenly w/the most advanced circulating variants, it will eventually predominate. We saw this with XBB & BA.2.86, and a similar pattern holds among various minor lineages. 1/3
Seven new BA.3.2.2 from Germany today spotted by @JosetteSchoenma. They are genetically dispersed and are therefore clearly not a cluster. As @snpoehlm says, this is ~5% of all sequences and ~15% in North Rhine-Westphalia. Collection dates Nov 6-18.
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
December 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
I agree. Wasn't sure before, but I think BA.3.2 is probably going to start accelerating.
Reposted by Adam Elbourne
Six-week study of 67 students in four classes, 1047 saliva samples ->
"Prolonged exposure in shared, poorly ventilated spaces, which potentially includes several infectious sources, drives respiratory virus transmission more than close contact."
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
HT: Emily Martin
"Prolonged exposure in shared, poorly ventilated spaces, which potentially includes several infectious sources, drives respiratory virus transmission more than close contact."
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
HT: Emily Martin
The relative contribution of close-proximity contacts, shared classroom exposure and indoor air quality to respiratory virus transmission in schools - Nature Communications
The relative importance of close-proximity interactions, shared space and air quality to the transmission of respiratory viruses is not well understood. Here, the authors investigate this question by ...
www.nature.com
December 3, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Six-week study of 67 students in four classes, 1047 saliva samples ->
"Prolonged exposure in shared, poorly ventilated spaces, which potentially includes several infectious sources, drives respiratory virus transmission more than close contact."
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
HT: Emily Martin
"Prolonged exposure in shared, poorly ventilated spaces, which potentially includes several infectious sources, drives respiratory virus transmission more than close contact."
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
HT: Emily Martin