Kraut
@derparrot.bsky.social
Ich bin ein Wiener.
Pronouns: Ő/Ő
#NAFO Слава Україні!
Pronouns: Ő/Ő
#NAFO Слава Україні!
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Man who starts war with the a coalition featuring endless manpower, unlimited manufacturing capacity, and control of all the world’s communication lanes which ends in the complete destruction of his country. Genius indeed.
January 1, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Man who starts war with the a coalition featuring endless manpower, unlimited manufacturing capacity, and control of all the world’s communication lanes which ends in the complete destruction of his country. Genius indeed.
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🤞
Ramzan dying & a 3rd Chechen war over his throne is all I need right now.
www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...
www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...
Chechen leader urgently hospitalised in Moscow
Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin's protégé and head of Chechnya, was urgently hospitalised in Moscow on the night of 24-25 December.
www.pravda.com.ua
January 1, 2026 at 6:43 PM
🤞
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A rare picture of Peter Thiel’s dog
January 1, 2026 at 6:44 PM
A rare picture of Peter Thiel’s dog
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And I think the path to a safer Europe lies through and with Ukraine.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
And I think the path to a safer Europe lies through and with Ukraine.
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Final thought. This is all both frightening and depressing. But although addressing these problems will be very difficult and, in many cases, very costly, it can be done. I think Europe is in a better place on these issues than it was a year ago; I’m optimistic that can continue.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Final thought. This is all both frightening and depressing. But although addressing these problems will be very difficult and, in many cases, very costly, it can be done. I think Europe is in a better place on these issues than it was a year ago; I’m optimistic that can continue.
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Nothing has prepared most European policymakers for what they’re now facing: threats from Russia; the end of the US as friend and protector; US alignment with Russia; uncertain political futures in Moscow and Washington; external interference threatening their own democracies.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Nothing has prepared most European policymakers for what they’re now facing: threats from Russia; the end of the US as friend and protector; US alignment with Russia; uncertain political futures in Moscow and Washington; external interference threatening their own democracies.
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10. We can only protect ourselves against threats we acknowledge.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
10. We can only protect ourselves against threats we acknowledge.
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9. Western states are rightly focused on both conventional military and ‘grey zone’ threats from Russia, but they need to start taking political interference much more seriously than some of them have done to date.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
9. Western states are rightly focused on both conventional military and ‘grey zone’ threats from Russia, but they need to start taking political interference much more seriously than some of them have done to date.
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But Europe needs to stop trying to impose an imaginary coherence on Trump administration foreign policy and to work out how to deal with the incoherent reality.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
But Europe needs to stop trying to impose an imaginary coherence on Trump administration foreign policy and to work out how to deal with the incoherent reality.
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So foreign policymaking is a battle between individuals with wildly varying levels of expertise and different ideologies to get the president to sign off on their policies before the next guy flatters him into changing his mind.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
So foreign policymaking is a battle between individuals with wildly varying levels of expertise and different ideologies to get the president to sign off on their policies before the next guy flatters him into changing his mind.
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8. The world’s two nuclear superpowers are now headed by irrational decisionmakers.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
8. The world’s two nuclear superpowers are now headed by irrational decisionmakers.
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But Europe needs to think about its collective future in a world after US leadership, US alliance, and – if the Trump administration continues to tank America’s capabilities and credibility – US significance.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
But Europe needs to think about its collective future in a world after US leadership, US alliance, and – if the Trump administration continues to tank America’s capabilities and credibility – US significance.
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7. Europe’s security depends on Europe – a wider Europe.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
7. Europe’s security depends on Europe – a wider Europe.
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In 2017-21, many Europeans told themselves that Trump was a one-off and as long as they were patient, things would go back to normal. But four years later, Trump was back. People who should know better are saying the same again now.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
In 2017-21, many Europeans told themselves that Trump was a one-off and as long as they were patient, things would go back to normal. But four years later, Trump was back. People who should know better are saying the same again now.
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6. Europeans convinced they just need to wait out the next three years need to stop it.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
6. Europeans convinced they just need to wait out the next three years need to stop it.
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Europe and Canada need to move carefully to avoid creating further dangers, but they need to decouple from the US in areas like defence planning, intelligence sharing, and defence procurement.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Europe and Canada need to move carefully to avoid creating further dangers, but they need to decouple from the US in areas like defence planning, intelligence sharing, and defence procurement.
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The NATO Treaty commits members to the principle that “an armed attack against one [member] shall be considered an attack against them all”, but the White House spent 2025 threatening to invade two NATO other members.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
The NATO Treaty commits members to the principle that “an armed attack against one [member] shall be considered an attack against them all”, but the White House spent 2025 threatening to invade two NATO other members.
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At lower levels the old relationships may still be functioning despite this, but the policymakers in what used to be the West’s leader are deeply and immovably hostile to Europe (and to traditional US foreign policy values).
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
At lower levels the old relationships may still be functioning despite this, but the policymakers in what used to be the West’s leader are deeply and immovably hostile to Europe (and to traditional US foreign policy values).
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5. Under the Trump administration, the US is no longer an ally of Europe or Canada, it has aligned itself with Russia.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
5. Under the Trump administration, the US is no longer an ally of Europe or Canada, it has aligned itself with Russia.
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Since the start of the war, many policymakers and advisors have worried that Russia losing the war in Ukraine would mean the end of Putin’s presidency, meaning the collapse of the Russian government, meaning the disintegration of Russia.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Since the start of the war, many policymakers and advisors have worried that Russia losing the war in Ukraine would mean the end of Putin’s presidency, meaning the collapse of the Russian government, meaning the disintegration of Russia.
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4. The end of Putin’s presidency won’t be the end of Russia.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
4. The end of Putin’s presidency won’t be the end of Russia.
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All the mentions of peace talks and peace plans are deeply misleading – these are ceasefire talks, not paths to permanent resolution of the conflict. That’s because the status of the Ukrainian occupied territories will remain unresolved as long as Russia occupies them.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
All the mentions of peace talks and peace plans are deeply misleading – these are ceasefire talks, not paths to permanent resolution of the conflict. That’s because the status of the Ukrainian occupied territories will remain unresolved as long as Russia occupies them.
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3. Don’t assume there’s definitely going to be a clear end to the war in Ukraine.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
3. Don’t assume there’s definitely going to be a clear end to the war in Ukraine.
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2. Russia isn’t a great power, so stop thinking of it as one.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
2. Russia isn’t a great power, so stop thinking of it as one.
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After four years – equivalent to all of the US Civil War or almost all of WW1 - it’s no closer to this goal than it was in 2022. There’s no reason to think that Russia, with a weaker economy, will do in 2026 or 2027 what it was unable to do in 2022-2025.
January 1, 2026 at 4:55 PM
After four years – equivalent to all of the US Civil War or almost all of WW1 - it’s no closer to this goal than it was in 2022. There’s no reason to think that Russia, with a weaker economy, will do in 2026 or 2027 what it was unable to do in 2022-2025.