John Q Public
@conjurial.bsky.social
I work in AI research, I used to work in politics, and I poast about both
Pinned
1. invent extremely powerful new distributed consensus-forming mechanism called, for some reason, "social media"
2. put it in everyone's pockets
3. pay an army of PhDs high-six-figures to make it more addictive
4. strange new distributed consensuses form
2. put it in everyone's pockets
3. pay an army of PhDs high-six-figures to make it more addictive
4. strange new distributed consensuses form
an awful lot of why politics is so deranged now in four easy steps:
Reposted by John Q Public
downsides of space-based industry: impractical, expensive, how are you going to dissipate the heat
upsides of space-based industry: no one is going to NIMBY you
upsides of space-based industry: no one is going to NIMBY you
November 14, 2025 at 12:28 AM
downsides of space-based industry: impractical, expensive, how are you going to dissipate the heat
upsides of space-based industry: no one is going to NIMBY you
upsides of space-based industry: no one is going to NIMBY you
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"babies are born worshipping unknown gods" is one of the most incredible dwarf fortress bugs i have heard of. its poetry.
November 11, 2025 at 4:18 PM
"babies are born worshipping unknown gods" is one of the most incredible dwarf fortress bugs i have heard of. its poetry.
Nothing wrong with America that can’t be fixed by putting about 20,000 specific people in prison for the rest of their lives
November 12, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Nothing wrong with America that can’t be fixed by putting about 20,000 specific people in prison for the rest of their lives
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yeah my most out there technology and crime belief that be implemented is if we can mandate new cars have backup cameras we can mandate they have ignition interlock devices. the first time you get caught driving over the limit it gets turned on. extremely doable technological non-carceral solution.
There was a DUI diversion program (Montana? Dakota?) that required 3 a day breathalizer that was more or less a wild success. If you miss check in, you get an overnight in county. Apparently this had effects on *all cause* mortality.
November 12, 2025 at 4:26 AM
yeah my most out there technology and crime belief that be implemented is if we can mandate new cars have backup cameras we can mandate they have ignition interlock devices. the first time you get caught driving over the limit it gets turned on. extremely doable technological non-carceral solution.
Does anyone who understands this want to enlighten me?
Feels bubbly
Feels bubbly
I still don’t understand Nvidia’s valuation though:
1) NVDA: really high
2) AMD: much lower
3) TSMC: also not that high
Putting these together, market is forecasting that…CUDA is an impenetrable moat, actually making the chips is not, and no attack on Taiwan
1) NVDA: really high
2) AMD: much lower
3) TSMC: also not that high
Putting these together, market is forecasting that…CUDA is an impenetrable moat, actually making the chips is not, and no attack on Taiwan
November 11, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Does anyone who understands this want to enlighten me?
Feels bubbly
Feels bubbly
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This idea of affordable mass market Corollas is just propaganda from developer shills, what we need is an income-restricted lottery for three (3) Ferraris
November 11, 2025 at 7:39 PM
This idea of affordable mass market Corollas is just propaganda from developer shills, what we need is an income-restricted lottery for three (3) Ferraris
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It's interesting that RLHF'd LLMs and influencers talk the same way. Perhaps through the evolution of clickbait, we'd already found the local maximum of attention grabbing
November 9, 2025 at 8:14 PM
It's interesting that RLHF'd LLMs and influencers talk the same way. Perhaps through the evolution of clickbait, we'd already found the local maximum of attention grabbing
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yeah I actually think the development of a staggering array of new medical procedures and treatments that are vastly more effective than what was available even a decade or two ago is a significant component of material prosperity that greatly improves quality of life, not just a joke
November 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
yeah I actually think the development of a staggering array of new medical procedures and treatments that are vastly more effective than what was available even a decade or two ago is a significant component of material prosperity that greatly improves quality of life, not just a joke
yes, though the same reasoning should lead you to expect that a few specific prices would be extremely salient: housing, maybe rent especially, gasoline, labor (i.e., your wages)
the amount of shit Will Stancil gets for stating the obvious fact that people do not track how much money they’re spending over time and have a ledger in their head of where costs of everyday items are is insane
November 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
yes, though the same reasoning should lead you to expect that a few specific prices would be extremely salient: housing, maybe rent especially, gasoline, labor (i.e., your wages)
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Words to live by tbh
November 7, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Words to live by tbh
Reposted by John Q Public
Reposted by John Q Public
slightly metaphorical but real sense in which the future changes the past: we understand our lives as narratives, but we don't (entirely) select actions that way
and the narrative that best explains what you've done can change as you do more things
and the narrative that best explains what you've done can change as you do more things
November 7, 2025 at 7:21 PM
slightly metaphorical but real sense in which the future changes the past: we understand our lives as narratives, but we don't (entirely) select actions that way
and the narrative that best explains what you've done can change as you do more things
and the narrative that best explains what you've done can change as you do more things
The brain specifically I dunno about: 2+ rather than one must be energetically expensive, why not selection pressure for fewer? How do they multiplex access to motor control centers?
But the immune system! It does complicated, goal-directed, long-term adaptive action and planning. Is it conscious?
But the immune system! It does complicated, goal-directed, long-term adaptive action and planning. Is it conscious?
It feels like the consciousness I'm experiencing is the only one in my brain. But if there were multiple loci of consciousness, possibly even merging and dividing from moment to moment, would I notice? I think I wouldn't, and that we shouldn't be sure we're alone in our brains.
November 7, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The brain specifically I dunno about: 2+ rather than one must be energetically expensive, why not selection pressure for fewer? How do they multiplex access to motor control centers?
But the immune system! It does complicated, goal-directed, long-term adaptive action and planning. Is it conscious?
But the immune system! It does complicated, goal-directed, long-term adaptive action and planning. Is it conscious?
Trump actually acting like a king is really helping me understand why various parts of Anglo-American government work the way they do
We talk about precise jury instructions and proof beyond a reasonable doubt, but the real practical function of juries in our system is as a final check on the most extreme "this is complete bullshit" prosecutions. And that they don't have to explain their reasoning is why that works.
November 7, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Trump actually acting like a king is really helping me understand why various parts of Anglo-American government work the way they do
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This is the crux of the problem. In the age of highly-centralized media, there WAS a strong relationship between "narratives about the economy" and "the actual economy."
But that relationship is falling apart. So suddenly it matters a lot whether the real driver was "narrative" or "real conditions"
But that relationship is falling apart. So suddenly it matters a lot whether the real driver was "narrative" or "real conditions"
In the real world there’s a direct, bidirectional causal relationship between “inflation narratives” and measured inflation, so I’m not totally convinced this is a meaningful distinction
November 7, 2025 at 12:59 AM
This is the crux of the problem. In the age of highly-centralized media, there WAS a strong relationship between "narratives about the economy" and "the actual economy."
But that relationship is falling apart. So suddenly it matters a lot whether the real driver was "narrative" or "real conditions"
But that relationship is falling apart. So suddenly it matters a lot whether the real driver was "narrative" or "real conditions"
Why you should always have been (and still be) skeptical of arguments for foom
this is my central objection to rationalism: there wasn't any way to know that specifically then, but "I'm deeply wrong about something I'm not even thinking of" is a priori fairly likely
Aristotelian first-principles reasoning about non-formal entities goes off the rails this way easily
Aristotelian first-principles reasoning about non-formal entities goes off the rails this way easily
November 5, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Why you should always have been (and still be) skeptical of arguments for foom
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ITS A COYOTE! CHASING A ROAD RUNNER!
Wonder why this scene looks so familiar...
#WildlifeWednesday 🐦🐕
#WildlifeWednesday 🐦🐕
November 5, 2025 at 10:07 PM
ITS A COYOTE! CHASING A ROAD RUNNER!
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More than choosing good project ideas, to me "research taste" means recognizing what the interesting part of a result is and how it connects to a bigger narrative. Almost any nontrivial result can be important within the right lens.
More than anything my PhD taught me this.
More than anything my PhD taught me this.
November 5, 2025 at 8:25 PM
More than choosing good project ideas, to me "research taste" means recognizing what the interesting part of a result is and how it connects to a bigger narrative. Almost any nontrivial result can be important within the right lens.
More than anything my PhD taught me this.
More than anything my PhD taught me this.
Reposted by John Q Public
What is this feeling that isn’t cynicism and despair?
November 5, 2025 at 4:44 AM
What is this feeling that isn’t cynicism and despair?
"A computer can never be held accountable, therefore a computer must never make a management decision" fits awkwardly with the Church-Turing thesis.
It would sound less obviously applicable to a (certain sci-fi kind of) robot, right?
It would sound less obviously applicable to a (certain sci-fi kind of) robot, right?
I'd conjecture accountability in the sense meant here presupposes
1) persistence; you can't hold a person "accountable" after death (maybe tangentially via threats of bad reputation)
2) coherent identity: bacterial cultures can't be punished
embodied robots fit this better than nonce LLM ghosts
1) persistence; you can't hold a person "accountable" after death (maybe tangentially via threats of bad reputation)
2) coherent identity: bacterial cultures can't be punished
embodied robots fit this better than nonce LLM ghosts
November 3, 2025 at 10:10 PM
"A computer can never be held accountable, therefore a computer must never make a management decision" fits awkwardly with the Church-Turing thesis.
It would sound less obviously applicable to a (certain sci-fi kind of) robot, right?
It would sound less obviously applicable to a (certain sci-fi kind of) robot, right?
This should be a sarcastic street name for cocaine
If by some astounding coincidence I ever invent a new & even more energizing form of caffeine, I'm calling it Caffeine D, aka D Caff, just to cause chaos
November 3, 2025 at 7:55 PM
This should be a sarcastic street name for cocaine
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I don’t think how people are tracking how quickly this is happening, for better or worse.
November 2, 2025 at 11:59 PM
I don’t think how people are tracking how quickly this is happening, for better or worse.
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You can write “Neil Postman vindicated again” every day and have it be correct about something
November 2, 2025 at 7:43 PM
You can write “Neil Postman vindicated again” every day and have it be correct about something
”AGI”:
both promoters and detractors of the concept fundamentally engage with it as a religious idea. this does not promote good reasoning in general
November 2, 2025 at 7:15 PM
”AGI”:
This is very literally better journalism from People than the NYT manages now.
The audience is better informed about the world after reading this than after reading analysis of how Democrats think it’ll play in Pennsylvania in the midterms
The audience is better informed about the world after reading this than after reading analysis of how Democrats think it’ll play in Pennsylvania in the midterms
someone invited people magazine to the kitchen and they brought their own knives
November 2, 2025 at 6:52 PM
This is very literally better journalism from People than the NYT manages now.
The audience is better informed about the world after reading this than after reading analysis of how Democrats think it’ll play in Pennsylvania in the midterms
The audience is better informed about the world after reading this than after reading analysis of how Democrats think it’ll play in Pennsylvania in the midterms