Carl Müller-Crepon
@carlmc.bsky.social
Human, Learner, Voyager, Citizen. Polisci research on the state, development, and conflict. Assistant Professor @ LSE Department of Government. Previously Oxford and ETH Zurich. https://carlmueller-crepon.org
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
One of every thousand American residents has been taken into custody by ICE in the last year.
A stunning detail the ICE chief shared in this hearing that was supposed to be a brag, except it isn't: ICE has arrested 379,000 people between Jan. 2025-Jan. 2026 -- but only 8,700 were suspected gang members or known suspected terrorists.
That's 2%! www.huffpost.com/entry/latest...
That's 2%! www.huffpost.com/entry/latest...
Congresswoman Uses Simple Math To Show How Broken ICE Is
www.huffpost.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:11 PM
One of every thousand American residents has been taken into custody by ICE in the last year.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
PEEP is back this year🤌 ! The 4th Political Economy of Europe APSA Pre-Conference will be hosted at Harvard on Sept 2, the day before APSA.
We welcome observational, experimental and formal theory work focused on Europe. Deadline: March 1st.
forms.gle/V6NEy4AfnSs7...
We welcome observational, experimental and formal theory work focused on Europe. Deadline: March 1st.
forms.gle/V6NEy4AfnSs7...
PEEP 2026 - Submission
Please complete this form if you would like to attend the 2026 Political Economy of Europe APSA Pre-Conference. The pre-conference will be held on Wednesday September 2, 2026 (the day before APSA) at ...
forms.gle
January 30, 2026 at 12:01 PM
PEEP is back this year🤌 ! The 4th Political Economy of Europe APSA Pre-Conference will be hosted at Harvard on Sept 2, the day before APSA.
We welcome observational, experimental and formal theory work focused on Europe. Deadline: March 1st.
forms.gle/V6NEy4AfnSs7...
We welcome observational, experimental and formal theory work focused on Europe. Deadline: March 1st.
forms.gle/V6NEy4AfnSs7...
🎉 This is now out in the latest @apsrjournal.bsky.social issue with page numbers! We find that modernization and expanding state reach through railroad construction in Europe tended to produce backlash and separatism among peripheral ethnic minorities.
Just published on APSR First View: "The Train Wrecks of Modernization: Railway Construction and Separatist Mobilization in Europe" by Yannick Pengl, Carl Müller-Crepon, Roberto Valli, Lars-Erik Cederman, and Luc Girardin. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 29, 2026 at 2:50 PM
🎉 This is now out in the latest @apsrjournal.bsky.social issue with page numbers! We find that modernization and expanding state reach through railroad construction in Europe tended to produce backlash and separatism among peripheral ethnic minorities.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Today in @theguardian.com, I argue that Donald Trump’s foreign-policy playbook is increasingly about attention capture, or what I call geopolitical clickbait.
Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.
🧵
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.
🧵
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Trump wants our attention. Let’s stop falling for his geopolitical clickbait | Catherine De Vries
Whether he’s targeting Greenland, tariffs or Iran, Trump’s agenda is to distract – because a Europe that is always reacting is never planning, says political scientist Catherine De Vries
www.theguardian.com
January 28, 2026 at 7:05 AM
Today in @theguardian.com, I argue that Donald Trump’s foreign-policy playbook is increasingly about attention capture, or what I call geopolitical clickbait.
Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.
🧵
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.
🧵
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Thrilled to see this Research Note with @janinadill.bsky.social and @carlmc.bsky.social published in @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social!
We ran the same and (a slightly modified) experiment as in July 2022 to investigate whether Ukrainians still categorically reject political and territorial concessions.
We ran the same and (a slightly modified) experiment as in July 2022 to investigate whether Ukrainians still categorically reject political and territorial concessions.
January 22, 2026 at 7:16 AM
Thrilled to see this Research Note with @janinadill.bsky.social and @carlmc.bsky.social published in @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social!
We ran the same and (a slightly modified) experiment as in July 2022 to investigate whether Ukrainians still categorically reject political and territorial concessions.
We ran the same and (a slightly modified) experiment as in July 2022 to investigate whether Ukrainians still categorically reject political and territorial concessions.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
The single best theory of the last few months
The TACO cycle:
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank.
So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.
January 21, 2026 at 7:50 PM
The single best theory of the last few months
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Our next
@lsegovernment.bsky.social
APEG seminar is this Thursday, Jan. 22, at 12 pm. We are happy to host Dr. Kristin Michelitch (sites.google.com/site/kristin...). Her talk is titled "Penalties for Particularism and Partisanship?" Please join us. @carlmc.bsky.social
@lsegovernment.bsky.social
APEG seminar is this Thursday, Jan. 22, at 12 pm. We are happy to host Dr. Kristin Michelitch (sites.google.com/site/kristin...). Her talk is titled "Penalties for Particularism and Partisanship?" Please join us. @carlmc.bsky.social
January 19, 2026 at 9:17 AM
Our next
@lsegovernment.bsky.social
APEG seminar is this Thursday, Jan. 22, at 12 pm. We are happy to host Dr. Kristin Michelitch (sites.google.com/site/kristin...). Her talk is titled "Penalties for Particularism and Partisanship?" Please join us. @carlmc.bsky.social
@lsegovernment.bsky.social
APEG seminar is this Thursday, Jan. 22, at 12 pm. We are happy to host Dr. Kristin Michelitch (sites.google.com/site/kristin...). Her talk is titled "Penalties for Particularism and Partisanship?" Please join us. @carlmc.bsky.social
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Deutsche Bank here with the good stuff.
Game on.
Game on.
January 18, 2026 at 6:59 PM
Deutsche Bank here with the good stuff.
Game on.
Game on.
I really look forward to the Annual Congress of the Swiss Political Science Association this week in Zurich. We are launching our book "Nationalism and the Transformation of the State" with an Apéro at UZH on Friday, 17:15-18:45!
Details and registration here: cis.ethz.ch/news-and-eve...
Details and registration here: cis.ethz.ch/news-and-eve...
Nationalism and the Transformation of the State
Book presentation with the authors, followed by an Apero.
cis.ethz.ch
January 12, 2026 at 4:40 PM
I really look forward to the Annual Congress of the Swiss Political Science Association this week in Zurich. We are launching our book "Nationalism and the Transformation of the State" with an Apéro at UZH on Friday, 17:15-18:45!
Details and registration here: cis.ethz.ch/news-and-eve...
Details and registration here: cis.ethz.ch/news-and-eve...
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
🚨Job alert! 🚨
I'm advertising a PhD position (66%) in Comparative Politics at HU Berlin. Ideal candidates combine a research interest in autocratic politics, conflict, and/or political violence with strong quantitative methods skills.
⏳ 4 (+2) years | 🗓 DL 16.01; Start March/April 26
More info:
I'm advertising a PhD position (66%) in Comparative Politics at HU Berlin. Ideal candidates combine a research interest in autocratic politics, conflict, and/or political violence with strong quantitative methods skills.
⏳ 4 (+2) years | 🗓 DL 16.01; Start March/April 26
More info:
Research fellow (m/f/d) in the field of “contentious politics/political violence/autocratic politics” - Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
www.hu-berlin.de
January 6, 2026 at 11:17 AM
🚨Job alert! 🚨
I'm advertising a PhD position (66%) in Comparative Politics at HU Berlin. Ideal candidates combine a research interest in autocratic politics, conflict, and/or political violence with strong quantitative methods skills.
⏳ 4 (+2) years | 🗓 DL 16.01; Start March/April 26
More info:
I'm advertising a PhD position (66%) in Comparative Politics at HU Berlin. Ideal candidates combine a research interest in autocratic politics, conflict, and/or political violence with strong quantitative methods skills.
⏳ 4 (+2) years | 🗓 DL 16.01; Start March/April 26
More info:
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Why does Europe not speak out against US actions in Venezuela?
Because Ukraine (and Europe) is held hostage to US goodwill. Speaking out risks American retaliation.
Because Ukraine (and Europe) is held hostage to US goodwill. Speaking out risks American retaliation.
January 3, 2026 at 7:15 PM
Why does Europe not speak out against US actions in Venezuela?
Because Ukraine (and Europe) is held hostage to US goodwill. Speaking out risks American retaliation.
Because Ukraine (and Europe) is held hostage to US goodwill. Speaking out risks American retaliation.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
1/10 🧵 The U.S. just captured a sitting head of state in a military operation—and Trump says the U.S. will "run" Venezuela “for now.” Whatever you think of Maduro, this is the most consequential unilateral move in the hemisphere since Panama (1989).
January 3, 2026 at 6:39 PM
1/10 🧵 The U.S. just captured a sitting head of state in a military operation—and Trump says the U.S. will "run" Venezuela “for now.” Whatever you think of Maduro, this is the most consequential unilateral move in the hemisphere since Panama (1989).
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
🚨Jobs!🚨
3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you!
Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you!
Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Research Officer
Research Officer,
,
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><em><span style="color: #333333;">LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</s...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
December 6, 2025 at 3:35 PM
🚨Jobs!🚨
3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you!
Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you!
Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
For folks still struggling with the math:
There are ~345 million US citizens.
There are ~245 million white US citizens.
This is what they mean by "Peaceful ethnic cleansing." Their plan ends with deporting all non-white people.
Not "undocumented criminals."
Not even "all undocumented people."
There are ~345 million US citizens.
There are ~245 million white US citizens.
This is what they mean by "Peaceful ethnic cleansing." Their plan ends with deporting all non-white people.
Not "undocumented criminals."
Not even "all undocumented people."
This should not be shrugged aside. They have stopped with the fake 22 million illegal immigrants things and are flat out saying we want to deport 10's of millions of citizens and legal residents from "third world countries" Basically they are advocating removing 1/3 of the population on a gov site.
December 31, 2025 at 11:41 PM
For folks still struggling with the math:
There are ~345 million US citizens.
There are ~245 million white US citizens.
This is what they mean by "Peaceful ethnic cleansing." Their plan ends with deporting all non-white people.
Not "undocumented criminals."
Not even "all undocumented people."
There are ~345 million US citizens.
There are ~245 million white US citizens.
This is what they mean by "Peaceful ethnic cleansing." Their plan ends with deporting all non-white people.
Not "undocumented criminals."
Not even "all undocumented people."
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Sounds like an incredible opportunity to me!
🚨 Six days left to apply 🚨
2 x 3-year postdoc positions
to work with me on the many impacts of border change, no teaching obligations, a vibrant department @lsegovernment.bsky.social, and London is a fantastic city! Deadline: Jan 4th.
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
2 x 3-year postdoc positions
to work with me on the many impacts of border change, no teaching obligations, a vibrant department @lsegovernment.bsky.social, and London is a fantastic city! Deadline: Jan 4th.
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
December 31, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Sounds like an incredible opportunity to me!
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
🚨 We’re hiring an Assistant Professor in Political Science
⏰ Deadline 4th January 2026
🙋♀️ Any questions, please reach out
👇
⏰ Deadline 4th January 2026
🙋♀️ Any questions, please reach out
👇
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
December 30, 2025 at 8:16 AM
🚨 We’re hiring an Assistant Professor in Political Science
⏰ Deadline 4th January 2026
🙋♀️ Any questions, please reach out
👇
⏰ Deadline 4th January 2026
🙋♀️ Any questions, please reach out
👇
🚨 Six days left to apply 🚨
2 x 3-year postdoc positions
to work with me on the many impacts of border change, no teaching obligations, a vibrant department @lsegovernment.bsky.social, and London is a fantastic city! Deadline: Jan 4th.
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
2 x 3-year postdoc positions
to work with me on the many impacts of border change, no teaching obligations, a vibrant department @lsegovernment.bsky.social, and London is a fantastic city! Deadline: Jan 4th.
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
December 29, 2025 at 3:47 PM
🚨 Six days left to apply 🚨
2 x 3-year postdoc positions
to work with me on the many impacts of border change, no teaching obligations, a vibrant department @lsegovernment.bsky.social, and London is a fantastic city! Deadline: Jan 4th.
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
2 x 3-year postdoc positions
to work with me on the many impacts of border change, no teaching obligations, a vibrant department @lsegovernment.bsky.social, and London is a fantastic city! Deadline: Jan 4th.
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
I asked our university's official AI assistant to draw a map of Poland in 1941.
Great stuff. Glad we are steering our students toward this helpful resource.
Great stuff. Glad we are steering our students toward this helpful resource.
December 22, 2025 at 10:48 AM
I asked our university's official AI assistant to draw a map of Poland in 1941.
Great stuff. Glad we are steering our students toward this helpful resource.
Great stuff. Glad we are steering our students toward this helpful resource.
🚨 History buffs of the Holy Roman Empire: We built an app to visualize rulers' itineraries between 919 and 1519 based on the Regesta Imperii. Thank you @albertwendsjo.bsky.social for all the help!
Explore here: carlmc.shinyapps.io/hre-itinerar...
Please let us know of any issues and feedback!
Explore here: carlmc.shinyapps.io/hre-itinerar...
Please let us know of any issues and feedback!
December 18, 2025 at 4:38 PM
🚨 History buffs of the Holy Roman Empire: We built an app to visualize rulers' itineraries between 919 and 1519 based on the Regesta Imperii. Thank you @albertwendsjo.bsky.social for all the help!
Explore here: carlmc.shinyapps.io/hre-itinerar...
Please let us know of any issues and feedback!
Explore here: carlmc.shinyapps.io/hre-itinerar...
Please let us know of any issues and feedback!
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
I am hiring a post-doctoral fellow (2 years) to work on all things political finance in Africa. There are no teaching obligations, and lots of opportunities for fieldwork. A PhD in Political Science is a requirement. Please spread the word! Happy to answer questions - send them to my LSE email.
🚨We're #hiring!
We're looking for a #Research #Fellow to join our team. The successful candidate will be part of the research project "Political #Finance in #Africa" led by Associate Professor @sarahbrierley.bsky.social for 2 years.
🗓️Apply by Monday 12 January 👇🏽
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We're looking for a #Research #Fellow to join our team. The successful candidate will be part of the research project "Political #Finance in #Africa" led by Associate Professor @sarahbrierley.bsky.social for 2 years.
🗓️Apply by Monday 12 January 👇🏽
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Research Fellow (Political Finance in Africa (POLFINA))
Research Fellow (Political Finance in Africa (POLFINA)),
,
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><em><span style="color: #333333;">LSE is committed to building a diverse, equi...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 11:58 AM
I am hiring a post-doctoral fellow (2 years) to work on all things political finance in Africa. There are no teaching obligations, and lots of opportunities for fieldwork. A PhD in Political Science is a requirement. Please spread the word! Happy to answer questions - send them to my LSE email.
#psjminfo: 2 x 3-year PostDoc positions, deadline Jan 4. We'll study the effects of border change, in ways that overlap with many subfields in CompPol and IR: e.g., HPE, PE of development, state formation, pol. geography, identity, ethnic politics. Also lots of (new) methods (ML, GIS, CausalInf...)!
🚨Jobs!🚨
3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you!
Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you!
Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Research Officer
Research Officer,
,
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><em><span style="color: #333333;">LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</s...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
December 15, 2025 at 1:40 PM
#psjminfo: 2 x 3-year PostDoc positions, deadline Jan 4. We'll study the effects of border change, in ways that overlap with many subfields in CompPol and IR: e.g., HPE, PE of development, state formation, pol. geography, identity, ethnic politics. Also lots of (new) methods (ML, GIS, CausalInf...)!
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
The Commission decides to push the crisis button (article 122 for economic emergencies) that allows through qualified majority voting to bypass Hungary and the parliament (and de facto muddles US bilateral plans with Putin) 🔥
The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.
I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.
🧵 Long thread.
I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.
🧵 Long thread.
December 11, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The Commission decides to push the crisis button (article 122 for economic emergencies) that allows through qualified majority voting to bypass Hungary and the parliament (and de facto muddles US bilateral plans with Putin) 🔥
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Join us tomorrow for Dr. Chikane's seminar on The Hidden Architecture of Elite Power in South Africa.
Our next APEG seminar on Thursday, 11 Dec., will feature Dr Chikane (www.wsg.ac.za/people/dr-re...) from the Wits School of Governance. His talk is titled "The Hidden Architecture of Elite Power in South Africa." Please join us in person or online.
December 10, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Join us tomorrow for Dr. Chikane's seminar on The Hidden Architecture of Elite Power in South Africa.
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
🚨 📖 “Nationalism and the Transformation of the State” is out with CUP! I’m so happy to conclude 6 years of research with Lars-Erik Cederman, Luc Girardin, Yannick Pengl and many others like that!
It’s open access @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org here: tinyurl.com/nastac
What’s the book all about? A 🧵
It’s open access @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org here: tinyurl.com/nastac
What’s the book all about? A 🧵
December 9, 2025 at 5:36 PM
🚨 📖 “Nationalism and the Transformation of the State” is out with CUP! I’m so happy to conclude 6 years of research with Lars-Erik Cederman, Luc Girardin, Yannick Pengl and many others like that!
It’s open access @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org here: tinyurl.com/nastac
What’s the book all about? A 🧵
It’s open access @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org here: tinyurl.com/nastac
What’s the book all about? A 🧵
Reposted by Carl Müller-Crepon
Folks interested in European politics and political geography, there's two postdoc positions open at LSE with the wonderful @carlmc.bsky.social looking at border change and local development in Europe jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/... #psjminfo
Research Officer
Research Officer,
,
<p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><em><span style="color: #333333;">LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</s...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
December 9, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Folks interested in European politics and political geography, there's two postdoc positions open at LSE with the wonderful @carlmc.bsky.social looking at border change and local development in Europe jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/I/... #psjminfo